North easterly wind so temperatures around 15 degrees and even the highest temperatures in the west, 23 or 2a degrees in the warmest places. On wednesday, predominantly dry again, probably less of that north sea cloud and what little we have a good link in one or 2a degrees in the warmest places. On wednesday, predominantly dry again, probably less of that north sea cloud and what little we have good link in one of two areas of the east coast but otherwise more sunshine so more of us probably seeing a climb into the low to mid 20s in the warmest areas. Beyond that, the fine and dry and settled run continues through the rest of the week but heading into the weekend, the Humidity Levels start to rise, as to the temperatures with highs in the Mid To High 20s but we are likely to see them heavy showers and thunderstorms working in which will bring some areas rain and of course gardeners might want that because it has been very dry for the last few weeks. Thanks, chris. And thats bbc news at ten on monday the 5th ofjune. Theres more analysis of the days main stories on newsnight with victoria derbyshire, which is just getting under way on bbc two. She is standing by. If we look at those People Standing by on bbc one, my colleagues in the nations and regions with the news where you are but from all of us here, thank you for watching good night. As ukraine attacks occupying Russian Forces, what tactics will it use to recapture more of its territory . Ukraine say its forces are shifting to offensive actions. Moscow says things are going badly for kyiv. Our diplomatic editor mark urban is here to cut through the spin. Ukraines Counter Offensive is many things. Some have started and some are still to come. Also tonight labours purge of the left appears to be continuing. Well talk to the man banned from standing for the north east mayoralty and a Labour Commentator who thinks the party has made the correct decision. Plus the imf� s number two Gita Gopinath tells newsnight it has no reason to change its forecast that brexit is hurting the uk economy. I think, for a fact, investment has been weaker since 2016. Labour market flexibility has come down, and the intensity of trade of the uk with the eu has come down, so all of these factors, you know, are in line with a weakening economy. The full interview coming up. And appearing at the high court tomorrow, the stakes for prince harry in his Phone Hacking case couldnt be higher. How will he show that stories written in the press about him really did come from Phone Hacking . Good evening. There have been signs ukraines Counter Offensive has been under way for weeks, but today there were significant developments, although its very difficult to get a picture of what is happening on the ground. News came from the Russian Defence ministry, who claimed it had thwarted a major ukrainian attack in donetsk in the east of ukraine. Video of what russia says is the battle shows military vehicles under heavy fire in fields. Russia claims it killed 300 troops and destroyed 16 tanks. Ukraines Deputy Defence minister said their forces are shifting to offensive actions in some areas. He described the eastern city of bakhmut as the epicentre of hostilities. But is that really the Counter Offensive or simply some probing or Reconnaissance Missions by kyiv� s military . Heres mark. A russian tank, struck and then moments later, as the ammunition inside takes fire, exploding. Another attack from a couple of days ago destroys a russian surface to air missile system. But losses are being felt on both sides as the battle intensifies. This Russian Defence ministry material shows Ukrainian Western supplied Armour Underfire and shows Ukrainian Western supplied armour under fire and taking shows Ukrainian Western supplied Armour Underfire and taking hits. It has been geo located to the southern donbas. While attribution and interpretation can be debated, it is evident that after months of stasis, the battle is intensifying. Land action has started. For an offensive now that has been in preparation now for nine months. As to what is riding on it, well, the first thing is that it is simply not going to be big enough to throw every russian out of ukraine, so we should be looking for it to achieve sufficient battlefield success to show the war can be won by ukraine, supported by the west. There have been reports of fighting in several key places. The ukrainian incursion into russia in the Belgorod Region continues, embarrassingly for the kremlin, and russian sources are reporting some gains north of back moot and to the west of belgorod two. This last one is intriguing to the west of ten micro too. This last one is intriguing, because it could lead to cutting the land to but it is too early to be sure. Ukraine will see where it makes progress and will look to reinforce that, for example, the advance near back moot, or start a new axis, Towards Crimea from curse on, or more audaciously of all, push around through belgorod to get behind and cut off Russian Forces in donbas. Ukraines Ministry Of Defence has so far been taking a Careless Talk Costs Lives Type of line, and even accepting that the ground phase of this offensive has started, but it could take time before the ukrainians find their success to exploit. In the meantime, they will keep up the pressure for more western supplies. Keep up the pressure for more western supplies. There will be never enough western supplies. There will be never enough of western supplies. There will be never enough of weapons. Never enough of weapons. When you go in the counteroffensive, one thing is to have enough of weapons to begin it, but another thing is to ensure sustainability of supplies in order to be able to continue as long as it is needed. Rather surreally, given the incursion at belgorod, President Putin has been filmed Talking Transport Policy today with officials. Hackers, meanwhile, cut into broadcasts in parts of western russia with a deep fake putin announcing martial law. So the offensive will push around 40,000 troops in a dozen brigades, carefully held back by the ukrainians, into weak points in the russian line. The west is feeding ukraine intelligence about where to direct its attacks, and has equipped nine of those reserve brigades. But even so, many in whitehall believe thats not enough to guarantee ukrainian success. Throughout recent months, russia has exploited its superiority in artillery, and with Ukrainian Forces now concentrating and coming into the open moor, they would be easier to target and subject to heavier casualties. So would be easier to target and subject to heavier casualties. 543i subject to heavier casualties. So i think we should subject to heavier casualties. Sr i think we should assume subject to heavier casualties. 5;r i think we should assume the subject to heavier casualties. 55 i think we should assume the russians will still be there at the end of this counteroffensive. The russians have Something Like between 200,000 300,000 have Something Like between 200,000 300,000 soldiers in ukraine and another 200,000 supporting the war in russia. Ukraine says it has constructed an offensive force of about nine brigades. That can be more than about 50,000 people, and probably fewer than that, and it has another 200,000 at least in the front line. That cant be more than about 50,000. But they are mostly holding the front line. Those odds mean it cant throw the russians out in a well sweep this summer. It russians out in a well sweep this summer. ,. ,. , summer. It is a close range struggling summer. It is a close range struggling match summer. It is a close range struggling match now, summer. It is a close range struggling match now, like| summer. It is a close range struggling match now, like these ukrainians attacking russian positions in the tree line a couple of days ago. As for the outcome, it could be weeks before that is clear. Marks here. Is this it, then . Yes, it is the short answer. The counteroffensive had many levels, and we have seen many there were some of them in recent weeks. Strikes into russia against ammunition stores, petrol stores, that kind of thing, to prepare the ground. So call shaping operations, and even those Drone Attacks in moscow and other places deep in russia and the belgorod actions to unbalance the russians, make them worry about where things are coming, whether their government can keep them safe. But what we have been waiting for is the movement of those brigades, and we have seen evidence today. Some of the Video Material we have seen coming out of russia, which has been checked and geo located, shows distinctive equipment that western countries have supplied. In one case, to one brigade alone, the 37th marine brigade, which was one of those held back, and it is in that vuhledar area, apparently making progress. So they are moving and committing their reserves. The question is, where will they have success, and where will they have success, and where will they have success, and where will they push the follow on forces to exploit any success . And will they push the followon forces to exploit any success . To exploit any success . And what kind of condition to exploit any success . And what kind of condition are to exploit any success . And what kind of condition are russian to exploit any success . And what i kind of condition are Russian Troops in . It kind of condition are Russian Troops in . ,. ,. , in . It is one of the huge Imponderables In . It is one of the huge imponderables here. In . It is one of the huge| imponderables here. We in . It is one of the huge imponderables here. We see in . It is one of the huge imponderables here. We see evidence of remarkable ill preparedness, rows between the Mercenary Group and the other soldiers surrendering in wretched state. But on the other hand, we also see evidence that the russians have got very good and slick with some of the queueing of error artillery, through drones and electronic warfare, that a lot of their Military Machine is still performing quite well. So which russian army is going to reveal itself, the chaotic, stretched, hacked off one that we have seen in recent months, or the one that can still hold it together, particularly when faced with a challenge like that . It is incredibly hard to know that . It is incredibly hard to know that definitively, but undoubtedly, the Ukrainian Army has got a tough fight on its hands. Thank you very much, mark. Lets talk now to yuri sak, whos in kyiv and an adviser to ukraines defence minister, Evelyn Farkas in washington dc, who served as Deputy Assistant secretary for defence under president obama, and mark galeotti, director of mayak intelligence and author of 25 books on russia, including the latest, putins wars from chechnya to ukraine. Thank you very much forjoining us this evening. First of all, yirk sak, there have been months of training and rearmament, all coming together now. How much is riding on this for ukraine . Yuri sak. Good evening. Well, we understand very well that every day counts for ukraine. We understand how our allies look at the way they have been supporting ukraine for the last couple of months, and we understand that Everyone Wants to see that supporting action, because we have been saying to our partners that our Major Military objective is to liberate our lands, and we have been preparing for the next Military Operations for quite some time now. There have been different factors at play, weather conditions, the amount of Military Support we received, and for the last couple of weeks, we have begun, as you have mentioned in your earlier report, shaping operations, probing operations, and things are beginning to move on the front lines. We have conducted quite successful operations today in and around bakhmut and other parts of the front line. At one thing we must stress one more time is that the offensive, or counteroffensive, is not an event whereby all Ukrainian Tanks and troops will be gathered in one place and then, at the start of a signal, a gun will go, charging towards the enemys defence lines. So it is a series of complex Military Operations of different scale. But the most important thing is to stress that the objective remains unchanged. We need to liberate our land from these terrorists and we need to bring them to account. Evelyn farkas, what is your expectation for this counteroffensive . ~. ,. , counteroffensive . Well, victoria, i do think that counteroffensive . Well, victoria, i do think that writ counteroffensive . Well, victoria, i do think that writ large, counteroffensive . Well, victoria, i do think that writ large, the do think that writ large, the counteroffensive will be successful, because counteroffensive will be successful, because the ukrainians do have many things because the ukrainians do have many things on because the ukrainians do have many things on their side. They have the equipment, things on their side. They have the equipment, the training, the intelligence. Sol equipment, the training, the intelligence. So i do believe that they will intelligence. So i do believe that they will be able to punch through they will be able to punch through the russian lines somewhere. They will also the russian lines somewhere. They will also probably employ the element of surprise, and the Question Element of surprise, and the question will be whether they can maintain question will be whether they can maintain the momentum. I think that your correspondent was spot on when he talked your correspondent was spot on when he talked about the need for follow on logistics. You know, it is notiust follow on logistics. You know, it is not just what you have in the first wave, not just what you have in the first wave. But not just what you have in the first wave, but can you keep going, can you keep wave, but can you keep going, can you keep sustaining and holding the russians you keep sustaining and holding the russians at bay . And they also want to make russians at bay . And they also want to make sure that they can manoeuvre around to make sure that they can manoeuvre around the to make sure that they can manoeuvre around the russians, because of their around the russians, because of their small around the russians, because of their small relative size of their force their small relative size of their force. A ~ their small relative size of their force. ~. ,. ,. ,. , ~ force. Mark galeotti, our own mark ave us force. Mark galeotti, our own mark gave us some force. Mark galeotti, our own mark gave us some insight force. Mark galeotti, our own mark gave us some insight into force. Mark galeotti, our own mark gave us some insight into the force. Mark galeotti, our own mark gave us some insight into the statej gave us some insight into the state of the russian military. What is your insight as to how stretched they are, or otherwise . Your insight as to how stretched they are, or otherwise . Yes, the interesting they are, or otherwise . Yes, the interesting thing they are, or otherwise . Yes, the interesting thing is they are, or otherwise . Yes, the interesting thing is that they are, or otherwise . Yes, the interesting thing is that on they are, or otherwise . Yes, the | interesting thing is that on paper, one would interesting thing is that on paper, one would think interesting thing is that on paper, one would think that interesting thing is that on paper, one would think that they interesting thing is that on paper, one would think that they do one would think that they do actually one would think that they do actually have one would think that they do actually have enough one would think that they do actually have enough troops| one would think that they do. Actually have enough troops to one would think that they do actually have enough troops to be able to actually have enough troops to be able to hold actually have enough troops to be able to hold their actually have enough troops to be able to hold their defensive actually have enough troops to be able to hold their defensive lines, which able to hold their defensive lines, which in able to hold their defensive lines, which in some able to hold their defensive lines, which in some places able to hold their defensive lines, which in some places are able to hold their defensive lines, i which in some places are especially formidable which in some places are especially formidable. But which in some places are especially formidable. But it which in some places are especially formidable. But it is which in some places are especially formidable. But it is the which in some places are especially formidable. But it is the quality formidable. But it is the quality and morale, as formidable. But it is the quality and morale, as mark formidable. But it is the quality and morale, as mark urban formidable. But it is the quality. And morale, as mark urban said, formidable. But it is the quality and morale, as mark urban said, that are the and morale, as mark urban said, that are the true and morale, as mark urban said, that are the true impon