and so voters delivered a series of bloody noses to labour. twice electing a conservative mayor and then ejecting labour from the prized parliamentary seat of hartlepool in a byelection — the lowest of low points. and so that's why this mayoral contest reverberates way beyond here. a tory win and rishi sunak will grab a lifeline. a labourwin, and keir starmer, well, he will believe he really is on a roll. i think this is the headline grabber. if rishi sunak holds on to this, then that's what he will be trumpeting. he will show that he does have that indefinable quality to reach out to these former areas that borisjohnson won. so that's big for him. but to overturn a 73% share of the vote last time round for labour would again be a massive triumph and show that they really are coming home to their former heartlands. and just talking to various people

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