Plans for a second Scottish Referendum on independence have been put on ice. First minister Nicola Sturgeon has categorically not dropped the idea of another vote, but said today that no legislation will be brought forward until autumn next year at the earliest. Given the pace at which these things proceed, that means no vote would happen until 2020 and by then it would likely be delayed until after the next scottish elections in 2021. The reset amounts to a setback for the ambitions of the snp, but its arguably also a retreat for the forces of change and disruption that have been dominating politics for so long. It was scotland that led the world into a new era of voter restlessness. A nationalist surge that saw snp Majority Rule in scotland and which paved the way for that Independence Referendum. Scotland has voted no in this referendum on independence. It was a defeat for independence but it came closer than anyone anticipated when it all started. Something had stirred and quickly turned into a Voter Uprising against anything that smacked of politics as usual. In 2015, the snp broke all records, one half the vote in scotland and 5659 westminster seats. That turned out to be the high water mark. You have not seen the last of my bonnets and me. This time around they got 35 seats. A great result by normal standards but it was a huge drop. Volatile Voter Behaviour had now come back to hit the snp. Nationalism are a less winning proposition. That reality was infused into the words of Nicola Sturgeon today. Many of us already believe that independence is the right and the best answer to the many complex challenges we face as a country and also the best way to seize and fully realise our many opportunities. We must persuade the majority in scotland of that and we have not done that yet but i have no doubt that we can. Why did the momentum for Radical Change in scotland slow . Here are four theories. One, voterfatigue. After indyref1 and the brexit vote, the scottish people cannot face another decision. The snp are outsiders no more. Having once been the subversives, they then became the establishment. Ruth davidson of the scottish conservatives became the outsider. The price of oil has fallen and brexit makes the border issue less simple. A fourth theory. Some change in mood across europe. It looked as though populism could disrupt all before it but the success of Emanuel Macron is only one example of it being held back. Maybe populisms ultimate triumph gave it a bad name. Brexit proceeds now for the whole of the uk. It has the power to disrupt and surprise. So the Ground Constitutional Question has not gone away. For the moment at least, it is one great up evil at the time. Current polling has support for independence at about 40 by the way, and a recent daily record poll found that 60 wanted ms sturgeon to drop her plan for another referendum. Ian blackford is the snps new leader in the house of commons. Welcome. Thank you forjoining us. Did the Opinion Polls play a part in Nicola Sturgeons decision . We have reset the timing on when an Independence Referendum may take place. If we look at where we are, the snp has won the last three scottish elections. We have won the last 135 seats out of 39. We are still remarkably Popular Party and an remarkably popular government in edinburgh. We need to reflect the circumstances throughout the united kingdom. Now we have a Minority Government i would argue there is no longer a hard wrecks it. What we need to push for is representing scotlands interests. You have overreached yourself. You thought this was your moment for a second go. Actually, the polls, if anything, have drifted away from independence. What happened last year if we went with the manifesto seeking support of the scottish people. If there were to be a Material Change in circumstances, we wanted the option of a referendum. You are now breaking your own manifesto. Circumstances have changed. Our priority is to protect scotlands interests. It means remaining in the customs union. There will be an opportunity to push for that. That is the change in circumstances. You can now fight for the soft brexit that you want. You could not have done that before the general election. The uk government did not want to compromise with us. There was a compromised document. We recognise the uk voted to come out of europe. Well sue sought recognition of our position. We have not had a meeting of thejoint Ministerial Committee since february. So, to summarise, it was nothing to do with the polls showing a decline in support for independence. Other polls show higher than that. There were some showing it at 49. We will always listen to the people of scotland. We will understand we did less well than we did in 2015. We want to demonstrate to the people of scotland we are worthy of their trust. 0ur priority is to protect the interests of the people of scotland. Lets talk about that. That is your case. A referendum should be seen as an Insurance Policy in scotland should be dragged out of the Single Market against its will. If you hate the brexit that theresa may is taking us towards, do you have the power to shout from the sidelines loudly and prominently to delay or obstruct . I think what people want is to see politicians working together. We are offering to the government to get around a table to see we can represent the interests of Those Averse In Scotland and Northern Ireland who seek to have access to Single Market. If theresa may does not play it like you want it, it you have the power to delay or obstruct the brexit that she wants, like not voting for the great repeal bill. We will have opportunities to influence the debate. There will also be a Legislative Consent Motion has to be presented to the scottish parliament. We are not talking about threatening anyone. In your back pocket it sounds like you do not have the power to stop it. We are going to have a Legislative Consent Motion. What is your understanding if you refuse to consent . If we are in a position where we are dragged out of the Single Market then we need to have the option of giving the referendum right to the people of scotland. That is the ultimate power we have. Will there be a second referendum before 2021 if britain adopts a softer brexit than theresa may has been talking about . If the position of scotland and the Single Market can be protected. If it cannot be protected, there will definitely be a referendum . In those circumstances, it is only right. You will definitely require one . At the end of the brexit process, every member state of the eu will have a vote. It is only right and proper that people of scotland are offered that opportunity as well. It is about making sure we have a parachute and can protect ourselves against the hard brexit. There will be a referendum. You will request a referendum annual do it before 2021. We will need to move as quickly as possible. Lets talk about the dup deal. Scotland has been short changed by money being sent to Northern Ireland. It is not a good deal for the union and the united kingdom. What you have is the conservative government buying votes from the dup with a £1 billion bribe. How are you being short changed . The Secretary Of State for scotland made it clear there have to be consequential is from the dup deal. That should happen across the united kingdom. If we were treated on an crippling basis, that would be an additional investment in Scottish Public Services and infrastructure of 2. 9 billion. That is a bit unfair on english taxpayers. It probably means another 30 billion for english taxpayers, doesnt it . They would not be treated on an equal basis if that were the case, would they . It is taking cash out of the pockets of the porous. We argue for an investment of 118 billion over the course of the parliament. Why would you want to leave . Your goal is to leave the united kingdom. We want to be a progressive force in parliament. We argued for investment across the united kingdom. Were not playing one part of the united against another. Thank you. You might never have heard of the Company Cambridge analytica but for many of those lamenting the result of last years brexit vote it has become a bit of a bogeyman. Some believe the firms psychological techniques were the Secret Weapon that swung the referendum. The idea that voters can be manipulated is not new, remember it was the sun wot won it in the 1992 election. These claims are always aided by the perception that right wing billionaires are pulling strings behind the scenes. So what is the truth of Cambridge Analytica, what is Cambridge Analytica . Gabriel gatehouse has been investigating. Every Political Campaign wants to get inside your head. The more they know about you, the more they can influence you. I think people understand that data is power. As we play out our lives online, were making things easy for them. It is possible to target messages at particular individuals, who will be unaware of the fact youve been profiling them. Are there people out there who know you better than you know yourself . This is not a normal company. Its using psychological techniques to change peoples thoughts and behaviour. Was britains Eu Referendum hijacked by the american alt right, using a technique known as psychographics. Brexit was the petri dish for trump. They said, heres this company, can it help you . This is the charge levelled at an obscure Data Analytics firm called Cambridge Analytica. They now deny they ever worked on the Leave Campaign but it wasnt always thus. So, is psychographics a menace or a myth . This is a complicated story involving politicians, financiers, and companies, on both sides of the atlantic. Its also a story in which the main protagonists keep changing their story. It raises troubling questions about whether, in the age of big data, our democracy is open to manipulation. Cambridge analytica is a Data Analytics company with offices in washington, new york and london. There are numerous, similarfirms, whose services are retained by Political Parties during elections around the world. But, Cambridge Analyticas approach is different, according to its eton educated ceo, Alexander Nix. Psychographics, that is an understanding of your personality, because it is personality that drives behaviour and behaviour that obviously influences how you vote. 0ur story begins in 2015 at a Press Conference for leave. Eu, one of the two main groups campaigning for britains exit from the european union. One of the people on the platform is from Cambridge Analytica. Were going to be running Large Scale Research throughout the nation to really understand why people are interested in staying in or out of the eu. And the answers to that will help inform our policy and our communications, to make sure we turn out more first time voters, more unregistered voters, more apathetic voters than ever before. In february last year, Alexander Nix gave a progress update. He wrote in an article that Cambridge Analytica had, and i quote, already helped supercharge leave. Eus social media campaign. And that the campaigns Facebook Page was growing in support to the tune of about 3000 people every day. Leave. Eu was the ukip led campaign for brexit, fronted by aaron banks and nigel farage. Cambridge analytica is financially backed by Robert Mercer, an american Computer Scientist turned hedge fund billionaire. He also backed the alt right news site, breitbart, founded by steve bannon, who was also on the board of Cambridge Analytica, until he became Donald Trumps campaign director. Robert mercer was a major contributor to Donald Trumps president ial campaign, which Cambridge Analytica also worked on. Cambridge analytica and the Leave Campaign. It was through this network of mutual acquaintances that Cambridge Analytica and the Leave Campaign. At least thats how a spokesman for leave. Eu told it to a reporter from the observer newspaper. I went and had a cofee with andy wigmore of leave. Eu and he said it was just because nigel is a good friend of the mercers Robert Mercer and of course knows steve bannon a long time, and they were happy to help. Its all the same family. We were after the same ends. Political campaigning is strictly regulated. Whatever money you spend needs to be registered. Leave. Eus Spending Returns make no mention of Cambridge Analytica. When leave. Eu were first challenged about this, they said, oh, well, they did some work for us but they were just helping out and they didnt get paid. But that would be problematic, too, because donations in kind have to be registered as well and foreign donations are not allowed at all. In april, the Electoral Commission launched an investigation into leave. Eus spending, including potentially impermissible donations, saying it had reasonable grounds to investigate whether the law had been broken. But now, in his first on camera interview addressing this interview, Cambridge Analyticas ceo claims his Company Never in fact did any work on brexit for any of the campaigns. Id like to think weve been pretty clear about this and consistantly clear over the last year or so that we had absolutely no involvement in the Leave Campaign we did not do any paid or unpaid work for brexit. Why did you initially say you had . Well, actually, that was reallyjust an example of the cart pulling the horse. We had a slightly overzealous pr adviser, who released a press statement. You also had a colleague at the launch of leave. Eus campaign. Thats correct, yes. You were still saying you werent working for them, you didnt do any work for them. Thats absolutely correct. So, what were you doing there . We were exploring the possibility of working with them, as we were with actually other parties at that time. Right. So, what does Cambridge Analytica do . Essentially, its all about targeting. It uses data to help politicians get the right facebook ad, for example, to the right voters. Every Political Campaign uses these sorts of companies but Cambridge Analytica claims to have something extra, a secret source, and thats psychographics come in. Cambridge analytica is a behavioural science and Data Analytics company that tries to synthesise both psychology and big data and Predictive Analytics to understand audiences, both in the political space and the commercial and brand space, as well as the government space, such that it can improve the efficacy of communications. Cambridge analytica was formed in 2013 and is affiliated with a group of companies called scl. Scl began developing a psychological component to marketing and messaging back in the early 1990s. Their work isnt confined to elections. Sels website says their services have been used by the Us State Department and nato. This has led some to accuse Cambridge Analytica of using techniques known as psyops, or psychological operations. This has come out of a background of doing 30 years of doing psychological operations all round the world. When people talk about winning hearts and minds in afghanistan, this is what theyre talking about. Its using psychological techniques to change peoples thoughts and behaviour. Cambridge analytica is sensitive to the charge that theyre using Military Grade psyops on elections in western democracies. We train militaries all over the world in psyops and our Military Division is very separate from our political division. In fact, so much so its a different company, its in a different building,