the peninsula to ukraine. there is a clear path to restoring peace in eastern ukraine. a full and immediate implementation of the agreements which the united states continues to support. the mensk agreements. the un ambassador to the united nations, sounding just as an ambassador traditionally does. now, it's confusing — to mr trump's opponents, he is destabilising. i suspect that for his supporters, there is craft in the chaos — the new president is unpredictable and going to have everyone yielding to him. here's our diplomatic editor, mark urban. the national prayer breakfast is a washington institution. a chance for politicians, movers and shakers to commune with the almighty. a chance also for president trump to exhort them to keep the faith. when you hear about the tough phone calls i'm having, don't worry about it. just don't worry. they are tough, we have to be tough, it's time we have to be a little tough, folks, we are taken advantage of by every nation in the world, virtually. it is not going to happen any more. tough calls. details have been leaked of a tough call with this trillion... like the one to australia's prime minister at the weekend. they later tweet suggested the australians needed to be pressured over a deal to resettle refugees in the us. so is the twitter bully pulpit part of irrational strategy? in the old days the old international regime was very careful about any tweet that would degenerate into tensions. now the entire planet is on twitter and facebook and social media, i think it is a good thing for the president of the united states to also be on social media. but if this is the new liturgy of washington what to make of dissenters that could undermine the message? yesterday the national security adviser michael flynn gave iran this warning. mr trump has criticised the agreements reached between iran and the obama administration and the united nations as being weak and ineffective. instead of being thankful to the us, iran is feeling emboldened. as of today, we are officially putting iran on notice, thank you. but pentagon people undermined that almost as soon as it went out, saying there was no change to their posture with regard to iran. it is very hard for outsiders to read. with respect to iran or north korea, these are countries where honour matters a lot. and humiliating the leadership of countries like this in order to show that you have won a better deal is also a very good way to escalate into quite a dangerous tensions. another feature of the trump approach seen with pacific trade or the eu is to emphasise the bilateral state to state approach rather than dealing with them in a group in the hub of leveraging america's strength. he's not going to dismantle historic alliances, he is trying to reform them, and to do so, his method is to sit down with each one of these countries that form these alliances, see what the bilateral situation is between the two countries is on a variety of levels and then talk about the forthcoming reform of these alliances. there's been a great deal of disquiet within the state department and some people have leaked there as well. today, rex tillerson taking up his position as secretary of state, put the emphasis on pulling together. each of us is entitled to the expression of our political beliefs. but we cannot allow our personal convictions to impede our working as a team. let's be honest with each other about the times we live in as we focus our images on our departmental goals. those in earnest supplication for a more doctrine from people like rex tillerson may be deluding themselves. in mattis we have a career military officer who's been trained up in the art of executing, right. someone who has lived his life in the military is not a very familiar with how to counter orders coming down from above. we had tremendous success on the apprentice. contradicting any attempt to separate policy, trump's remarks. and they hired a big movie star, arnold schwarzenneger to take my place and we know how that turned out. at the prayer breakfast this morning he took a swipe at arnold schwarzenegger and his ratings on on the apprentice. from this administration we have already learned to expect the unexpected. let's just pray for arnold and those ratings. mark urban there. well, the new diplomacy is unpredictable, but it is also very much about the us taking on global affairs, country by country. president trump is not keen on the big international bodies or the multi—country trade deals. the us prefers bilaterals to multilaterals now. one area where the existing global arrangements are being reviewed for example, is in climate change. president trump wants to exit the paris agreement. so who better to speak to about his approach to international affairs and climate change than myron ebell, who was in the transition team, in an environment role? thank you forjoining us. good to talk to you. there is a huge weight in trying to understand the rules of the game under president trump. in your view, what looks like chaos, is that strategic, planned, orjust ordinary chaos? it seems to me that president trump is trying to get an awful lot done very quickly, so i think the chaos is the result of that but i think he is moving rapidly on some major issues. what do you think of that line, we will talk about climate change but the line he used about " every country the world is taking advantage of the united states"? do you agree? clearly the us is one of the richest countries in the world so you might not think it was the most obvious feature. do you accept that every country virtually is taking advantage of the us? i think president trump is sometimes prone to speak broadly. we would have to go through each iteration of that although there have been long—term problems with nato for example, most countries are not keeping their commitments for defence spending. so there are examples with the us is more than bearing its own fair share, i suppose. the multilateral, bilateral think he doesn't like multilateral deals, he is fine with bilateral deals, could you articulate for us what is wrong with multilateral and what is better about bilateral? i think we would have to again look at this on a case—by—case basis. i think the world trade organisation, the problem with it was that it hasn't been able to finish any of the big agreements on services for now well over a decade, more like 15 years. the multilateral process has sort of come to aid... it has frozen up. so maybe the bilateral deals will be more successful then. let's move to another important multilateral area, climate change, international agreements. you are not a fan. you are in the transition team as the transitional head of the environmental protection agency. do you think president trump will pull the united states out of the paris agreement and basically say, guys, we are no longer in it? president trump said in the campaign in several speeches, not in off—the—cuff remarks, that he intended to withdraw the united states from the paris agreement and defund the un climate programmes. the principal expenditure is the huge $100 billion a year green climate fund expected to go into effect in 2020. the share is $23 billion. he's not alone in this. the congress will never appropriate that money. so it seems that this is going to happen. most of the rest of the world has a different view about the appropriate action to take on climate change, different to that of the us. is the rest of the world entitled to say you can put america first and do what you want, we will stick to paris and put a small tariff on american exports because they are not burdened by the climate change taxes that we are all bearing. i think the rest of the world can't talk about that but it should be recognised that the united states, because of the shale oil and gas revolution, has done more to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions than any other country. right. if the us, i suppose what i am really getting at here, is, the us is adopting a policy on, we are not going to take it any more. what happens if the rest of the world says 0k, we will not take it any more as well because everyone else feels a bit hard done by and as if everyone is ripping them off. if that's dynamic plays out, where do you, a free—market libertarian type, where do you think that ends for the world and president trump and for all his ambition? my underlying belief is that the united states, by withdrawing from the paris climate agreement and removing funding from environmental programmes will be turning the world back in the right direction. another part of the president trump agenda is to make the united states is the largest energy producer in the world, which will free europe from the threats from russian gas and also reduce the influence of opec. yes. when do you expect president trump to make an announcement on paris and how he is progressing on that? every time i say something i get misquoted. and it could happen at any time, it could happen tomorrow, or one month free—market think tank, you must disagree with the approach that the president is taking to trade. you don't believe in slapping a 20% tax on the borderfor mexican goods, do you? do you not believe that we have all been enhanced by free trade? are you at odds with the man you are serving in that transition team? the institute is proudly and relentlessly free trade. that is why i was not asked to work on his trade policy. are you going to be asked to get a permanentjob in the administration? no. i agreed to work on the transition as a volunteer for four and a half months on condition. i did not want a job the federal government. myron ebell, thank you. thank you. the government's brexit white paper came out today, adding more detail to theresa may's speech last month. actually, the white paper had a few mistakes and typos, and if you look at the metadata on the electronic version, as the bbc‘s george greenwood did, it appears to have been finished at about 4:15am yesterday morning. just right—click on the pdf in adobe, and look for document properties. a late draft is normal, but it suggests that a lot of thinking is still under way. the document raises multiple issues, from civil nuclear regulation to data protection, just to say they'll be resolved as smoothly as possible. other specifics, such as the erasmus higher education exchange programme or the pet passport scheme get no mention. yes, the future travel status of millions of dogs, cats and ferrets remains unresolved. now this white paper is just the british view. we may get our way, or we may be about to be hit bya european freight train. our political editor nick watt is with me. nick, the prime minister will be heading to an eu gathering tomorrow. tomorrow, theresa may will attend what may well be one of the last european council meetings before she triggers the article 50 brexit negotiations. she wants to do that early next month. that will take place in the maltese capital of valetta and the main focus will be on the mediterranean migration crisis. theresa may will use that issue and that summit to tell the remainder of the eu that the uk wants to be a reliable partner when we have left and when brexit has taken place. she will say that the uk will like to continue to tribute to the eu task force in the mediterranean. she will cite naval aspects and border cutters taking place. as the brexit negotiations approach, there is a growing feeling in the cabinet that the uk is facing a daunting task of historic proportions. so the key thing that the uk has got to do, is it has to show it will not be a supplicant in the talks. how do you do that? you start to play some of your key cards. we will help in the migration crisis. an interesting chapter in the white paper, chapter ii, talking about how the uk plays a pivotal role in helping other eu countries tackle terrorism. i spoke to one member of the cabinet who said, we are not saying we will withdraw cooperation on terrorism if the talks don't go our way, but it's probably a good idea to provide a reminder of the uk's significant role on that front. so on the day of the publication of that white paper, we thought we would take a look at some of the main challenges that will face the uk in those brexit negotiations. well, it's 75 pages long and it provides the most detailed explanation of the government's approach to the brexit negotiations, but there's not a single word about the first item the eu will place on the table. the multi—billion pound divorce settlement the uk will be expected to pay. instead, there is one short paragraph about the post brexit payments, and they are a long way down the line. item number two on the eu list will be a demand for the uk to guarantee the rights of the 2.8 million eu nationals living in the uk. theresa may is holding back on this one because she wants to secure reciprocal rights for the i million brits living in the rest of the eu. this issue could be resolved next week if an alliance of tory backbenchers working quietly with senior cabinet ministers manages to force the prime minister's hand. theresa may wants to reach agreement on the uk's future partnership with the eu during the two—year brexit talks, but the eu is only obliged to take account of the final settlement at this stage, prompting the uk to accept the need for an implementation period. the white paper is silent on the eu's view on this period. their rules must apply. theresa may's decision to leave the single market means the uk will no longer be able to rely on so—called passporting rights to sell financial services across the eu. so the white paper doesn't really 7275251 aka} 354.15??? “ew'z'; tag: instead, it has a very simple message for the rest of the eu. 75% of your capital market business is conducted through the uk. do you really want to put barriers in the way of that? britain wants to free itself from much of the eu customs union to allow it to negotiate new free trade deals across the globe. but it does want to hold onto one benefit, tariff free trade with the rest of the eu. once again, the white paper doesn't really talk about rules. instead, it makes a simple plea to the eu. surely you want to have a close relationship with one of the world's great trading nations? joining me now to discuss this is the italian deputy foreign minister mario giro. thank you for talking to us. when you sit down as the 27, without us, what do you talk about, what is the mood in the room, what do you think? do they say it will be easy or difficult? will we be a pushover? for both. and it's a failure. we are all responsible. and we have to act quickly and with fairness. quickly also, because i know it's very complicated and we don't know exactly how to handle it. it's the first time. there is the example of greenland, but years and years ago, that was a little thing. the uk is a big thing. i say that we need to be quick because the financial markets left us no time. it's in everybody‘s interest that it is quick and smooth. you've had a quick glance at the white paper. you heard theresa may's speech and you know the british position. what do you think is not going to be deliverable, or will it all be deliverable? everything is negotiable and deliverable. everything. on one side, the white paper is a wish list. how to handle it, the main thing is what we want. what the uk wants in this negotiation. but on the other side, the tone of the white paper is a good one. in general, there are no supplicants in this story. of course, it's a failure, we have to divide, but we have to be fair. the white paper says, more or less, what are the best results for both? the customs union? the rights of residents in different countries? what's the hardest issue? probably the commercial things. commercial things, because trade in general. because the common market is very important for us. it's the building block of the eu. we need to speak a lot about that. it's very complicated. and also the idea to have on one side, bilateral trade agreements, it's a long job. it's a long story, you know? to do that. on the other side, the uk... we cannot accept that the uk will become a tax haven near to europe. that's the back—up option. the brits have said they don't want to do that, but that's what they would do if it was a bad deal. the british position is that when we all sit down together, you guys are bluffing. you will say this and that is difficult, but most of what we want is trade, you all want trade, we all benefit from trade, so you are bluffing and will give us what we want. or as borisjohnson will put it, it's all about prosecco. you want to sell prosecco and you will push it in the end. there is a time question. everybody wants a free market, of course. all the trade facilities. and of course it's in the ideals of everybody. on the other side, we worked a lot for the keys to have this common market. and to have another system in globalisation. also, globalisation is weak now, but will not end, so to have plenty of bilateral agreements. you were speaking about multilateral and bilateral about the united states before. this is not multilateral. it is more than that, it is one common market. you cannot oppose that with dozens of bilateral agreements. first of all, to achieve this goal, you need time. then we have to find something new, we have to be creative on this. a quick last one. one of the things the british have to offer the rest of the eu, we share security cooperation, advice on terrorism. and we also have a navy helping out in the mediterranean in terms of the migrant crisis. are those things, things that you hope are not part of the bargain or the negotiation, or do you think britain will be rewarded, if you like, for offering those in keeping cooperation going on those? look, i cannot imagine a europe — and i don't say eu, i say europe — without the uk, of course. and the main subject is defence. there is not any kind of european defence without the united kingdom. that means defence, anti—terrorism, security, intelligence. on this field, and also in the other field of research, we need to be very cooperative among us. mario giro, thank you for talking to us. at one point he was the front runner, but francois fillon can now see his bid for the french presidency imploding. it's all down to his welsh wife. not all, but quite a lot of it. he appears to have used public money to pay her as a member of staff for many years, but the telegraph unearthed a bit of a video interview they did with her some years back, when she said she didn't work for him. i've never been actually his assistant or anything like that. no, i don't deal with his communication. for many french voters, that video is the proof that the fillons‘ intra—family payments were a rip—off of the taxpayer. let's talk about the ramifications of this with two people keenly following the presidential race. pierre haski, from the french news site rue 89, is in paris. and benedicte paviot, of france 24. do you think fillon‘s bid for the presidency is over? my feeling is that it's over. he's trying to resist. but he's an embattled candidate. he's trying to fight back but his credibility is in shatters. do you agree that it's over for fillon? yes, he's probably toast. let's remember the allegations and also point out that it's not illegal, on the contrary, it's totally legal to employ a member of your family to be a parliamentary assistant. what is illegal is to get the taxpayer to pay for it. and for the member of the family not to do the work. what is worse is that we should remember that there is a history of doing good investigative work. the people who exposed this particular story it wasn't just this, there has been a sequence, a drip, drip, drip. she was getting paid by a billionaire‘s literary publication. that's right. and the staff had never seen her. police raided parliament the other day. this is not a surprise to french people about penelope fillon. they are calling it penelope—gate. it kicked off nine days ago. she has always been very reluctant and says she's a wife first and a mother to their children and is there to support her husband. that's never been a problem. what has surprised and stunned everybody, notjust in their own party but across france is to discover that she had a full—time job as a parliamentary assistant and was then paid very handsomely and even by francois fillon's replacement. this is stunning, very bad news for him, bad news for the french conservatives, who don't have an alternative. it's very bad news for them. we have lost the line to paris. take us through what's happened. the way they have been doing it, appointing a candidate through primaries like the united states. that is relatively new in france. what happens if you lose the candidate between the primary and the presidential election? that is the big question, there are a few scenarios. the most improbable is to go through the process again. number one, it would be denying, this would be the second time for the socialists, let's remember also, juppe, he was another... we are in unpredictable territory, he beat him easily and beat nicolas sarkozy, so there are people, who, if the process is not respected, are discovering that their candidate who they thought would be the next french president in that second round on may seven is completely embattled. we have to say that the allegations are one thing but the way he has mishandled it, he said it was misogyny, he accused the media of being totally unfair, says it is a coup by the left, and institutional coup. he's making all kinds of accusations. i want to push, who will benefit, you could say it is marine le pen, will say that the establishment are all in it for themselves and they must choose an anti—establishment candidate, or is it macron, the bright younger guy coming through now, who picks up the votes? i think they will both pick up some. notice how silent marine le pen is being on this. she has her own problems. she had untiljanuary 31 to repay to the european parliament 300,000 euros, she did not do so. the accusation stands that she abused european funds, she abused them for her assistance in france and not brussels. we will find out more about mr macron. i've just found out that he's coming to london, we've got to get that in there, he's coming on february 21. it will be fascinating to see. unelected, ex—banker but he is connecting, resonating. so all bets are off, if you want to place bets, do so. it is a serious business, we don't know who will be the next president. that's politics. i am sorry that we lost pierre. time for viewsnight now. our regular — or irregular — spot for ideas and views. tonight, it's pankaj mishra, essayist, writer and author of the recent book, the age of anger, blame modernity for our age of anger. how do we explain our age of anger? why do racism and misogyny flourish on social media? what is the appeal of lying demagogues? since 9/11 we have blamed the other, mostly muslims, for political disorder, but the enemy now is more intimate, as we can see in the rise of trump and the far right across europe. pankaj mishra is here with me now. you are quite down on the way the world has been running itself. you would not think, listening to your viewsnight that over the last two decades 1 billion people have been taken out of acute poverty in the world, has it been that bad? they have been taken out of poverty but have you thought about where they will go next? what will happen, these are just1 billion people taken out of poverty, there are more people waiting. another billion waiting... and they have been promised that they will share in the prosperity that has been created by a global capitalist economy worldwide, and we know that they will not attain that particular utopia. the world, the planet itself does not have the resources to cater to that kind of fantasy. is it that the planet itself is limited ? it's not just at the environmental level, it's also political, we are seeing the politically toxic consequences of feeding people forced promises. something which, this kind of discourse, that billions of people are being lifted out of... progress is happening, irreversible, inevitable, this discourse which the media has been disseminating since the end of the cold war is very much complicit in this. you go back to 1789, you were quite critical of the enlightenment and how the white men colonised the world and looked after themselves. it trickled down quite a bit, didn't it, to the societies, where, not the whole world... but you look at where people were between say, year zero and the industrial revolution, they were checking along on two or $3 a day on average, and now we are alljust sitting around, basically, the poverty line in the united states is $63 a day for a family of four. let's call that a $16 a day per person. incomparably better than 200 years ago. yes, but the problem is, this is where we are all going wrong when you are computing, talking about such massive changes, talking about people being lifted out of poverty, what you are failing to consider is that people, making these massive changes in their lives, they are also experiencing loss, disillusionment, frustration. this is what the book is partly about, these ideas that we have lived with, i am not saying they are not admirable or worthy of pursuit, i am saying that they have caused terrible disillusionment and disaffection for a long time and many times that disaffection has become politically toxic... i do see, one reason that there might be some edge disillusionment in the world is that technology have shown people what they are missing in a way that it did not. they are much better off but they know how much worse off they were. this is the paradox. when things improve, people's expectations go through the roof. why say it is about white men, the system they invented works in china... a statement is too often ignored, barack obama ignored it, saying that protesting african americans are demanding the equality promised to them by the founding fathers. this is not history, this is fantasy. first we must acknowledge that these ideas were created by a small group of self—serving people who wanted liberty from certain specific authorities of their time. they were not thinking of liberty for everyone. they were not even thinking about who was human and who was not. and they extended their realm... who is "they?" the people you are talking about. people fought for those liberties. they were not given to them. segregation existed until the late 20th century. what is your counter hypothesis? what is the system you would like to see? a system that is environmentally sustainable. an economy, basically, this is why i say, you have to think about our place in the world and the transformation of the world. the system has been demonstrably better. we are in the middle of a lot of at least in the west. we are now in the modern world, there is no way back, that is for sure. we cannot... capitalist western democracy, is that the best system, basically? have we tried other systems? from time to time, and they have done pretty badly. what we are dealing with is modern economics, what we are witnessing, is people thinking that one system works for the entire world. and we know that the one size fits all solution is light in tatters today. pankaj, thank you very much. and we'll be continuing our discussion with pankaj mishra on facebook right after we come off air. he'll be taking your questions. that's on the bbc newsnight facebook page. you can see that on the screen. we are going to go and do that. that's it for tonight. we leave you with that trump—schwarzenegger feud you may have heard about earlier in the programme. both men have had something to say in the last 2a hours. see if you can spot which one works on celebrity apprentice and which one is the president of the united states. goodnight. ...had tremendous success on the apprentice. i know the american people are not people that sit just in front of the television set and always complain... and they hired a big, big movie star, arnold schwarzenegger... because they know democracy is not a spectator sport. and we know how that turned out! if you don't like something, you get up. the ratings went right down the tubes. and you go and do something about it. it's been a total disaster. i think the american people are going to get up. and i want to just pray for arnold, if we can, for those ratings. and do something about it. and that i think is the bottom line, this is why i think we will always and that i think is the bottom line, be the greatest nation. good evening. more wild weather to come in the next 24 hours of. slightly different zones. the west had the round. strong winds. high seas. this area of low pressure is responsible. it is going north. still producing wind in north—west scotland. turn your attention to this. this will be in the bay of biscay. a clearer sky tonight. temperatures in single figures. sunshine around to start friday. showers north and west. rain goes into wales in the morning. lunchtime, manchester, liverpool, and through the afternoon into ireland. it may reach the east of northern ireland. good parts of scotla nd northern ireland. good parts of scotland stayed dry for friday. sunny spells. not warm. temperatures we re sunny spells. not warm. temperatures were they should be. lighter wind for northern ireland. be wary of rain. a bit of snow. outbreaks of rain. a bit of snow. outbreaks of rainfor many rain. a bit of snow. outbreaks of rain for many across central and western parts of england and wales. the heaviest in cardigan bay and devon and cornwall. the strongest winds picking up in the south—west. not as strong as today in devon and cornwall. 50 miles per hourfor the wind. the potential anywhere along this zone for travel disruption in east anglia and the south—east. the stronger swings go northwards overnight. nothing too much on saturday. outbreaks of rain. hill snow to begin with in northern parts of the uk. clearer and colder conditions for england and wales. a touch of frost around. this area near france bringing strong winds. it could just bring outbreaks of rain to the far south—east of england. uncertainty about that. a fine afternoon, even if it is not especially warm. a chilly night will follow as the low pressure goes towards the north sea. we may see some rain in eastern scotland and england. for friday, a bright enough start with sunshine after a chilly start. a few showers in the far south and far south—west. most will stay dry even if temperatures are in single figures. a cold night with frost developing in rural areas. to ta ke frost developing in rural areas. to take off into the start of next week, a frost on monday morning, lots of sunshine around. atlantic canada, our breaks of rain, and strong winds push on from the west again. —— air. —— outbreaks. and thatis again. —— air. —— outbreaks. and that is your weather. rico hizon in singapore. thanks for joining us. our top stories. after the phone call, jelly‘s alliance with the united states hit its lowest point in their codes. —— australia's alliance. mrjohn says he loves australia and will accept the deal to take refugees. —— mr trump. james mattis reassures the leader of south korea that the alliance between the two countries remained strong. i'm kasia madera in london. why cities across romania experiencing the biggest demonstration since the fall of communism? and trading places, it china ready to the chance —— united states and take the lead in a new world order? live from our studios