but why the flare—up now? all of these things _ are interconnected, and that's why it's really dangerous right now. so the big question now is, could this red sea conflict become the next war in the middle east? first of all, let's start by looking at what has actually been happening in the red sea. in mid—november, 2023, the houthis, an iranian—backed rebel group in yemen, began targeting commercial shipping off their coast. so, who exactly are the houthis and what is it motivating them? the houthis, who are a so—called rebel group in yemen, they hail from the north—west of yemen. they have been very active in this area for about a decade. it's only now that we're noticing because our global trade is being impacted. they hijacked this ship called the galaxy leader and they fired missiles and drones at others. us and british warships went to their defence. the houthis vowed revenge. the world economy, every economy will suffer if ships keep coming under attack in this illegal and unacceptable way. and these attacks need to stop, or actions will be taken. in late 2023, the us put together a coalition of nations to confront these attacks in the red sea and the gulf of aden. it called this taskforce 0peration prosperity guardian. we're grateful to the more than 20 nations that have joined 0peration prosperity guardian so far to help protect maritime traffic and provide security in the red sea. the military muscle for the task force is provided by the us navy and, to a lesser extent, the royal navy. they've got the warships in place that can shoot down incoming missiles. on january the 9th, 2024, the houthis launched a mass attack on those western warships. now, all their missiles and drones did get shot down, but for the task force, the houthis had crossed a red line. as we made clear, and many other countries made clear, there'll be consequences for the houthis�* actions. those consequences became clear on january the 11th, when us and uk fighterjets struck targets in this part of yemen, close to the shores of the red sea, a key trade route into europe. i made the decision, with allies, to take what i believe to be necessary, proportionate and targeted action against military targets to degrade and disrupt houthi capability. we won't hesitate to protect lives and ensure the safety of commercial shipping. the un security council even adopted a resolution demanding an immediate end to the attacks. it underscores the council's support for navigational rights and freedoms of vessels of all states in the red sea, including for merchant and commercial vessels transiting the bab al—mandab, in accordance with international law. the bab al—mandab strait — the small strait which leads into the red sea — vital choke point, through which so much shipping passes to go up through the red sea and then on through the suez canal to europe, the shortest route between africa, asia and europe. dr elisabeth kendall, from cambridge university, is an expert on the middle east. this is a strait through which about 17,000 ships per year pass, and that equates to about $1 trillion worth of trade. and if that trade has to re—route around africa, as is currently happening, that adds massive time to the journeys, to insurance premiums, to shipping costs and delays supply chains, which even small delays have big knock—on effects. that will eventually be seen in our shops and in our wallets. so, we have a western coalition protecting the international trade in the red sea. so, why is it that it's primarily uk and us forces involved in these strikes? short answer is because they've got the kit to do it. the uk has fighterjets stationed here, in cyprus, while the us has got a carrier strike group down in the red sea. none of the other coalition partner countries have quite the same capabilities. general david petraeus is a former director of the us central intelligence agency — the cia — and, before that, one of the most influential military commanders of his generation. are we at war in yemen? i don't know that we're at war with yemen, but clearly, we are in a hostile situation. we're carrying out actions of self—defence of our ships and, of course, of the shipping through that very important artery of the world's maritime traffic. the houthis are no easy adversary. they're hardened fighters. and you can get entangled and mired down pretty quickly. translation: we will not hesitate, god willing, - to do everything we can, and we will confront - the american aggression. any american aggression will never remain without a response. - general sir richard barrons has been one of britain's most senior military commanders. so, what we have seen is the us and the uk and others standing in the background, saying to the houthis — through the medium of the application of air power — do not target international trade. but it hasn't worked. they've done the air strikes and the houthis are still firing missiles at ships. so, i don't think it's... i don't think we know yet whether it has really worked. so it would have been remarkable if the houthis apologised and said they would never do this again. so this has probably a few more rounds to play out. we did not say when we launched our attacks, they're _ going to end once and for all, - the houthis will be fully deterred. i think the us and britain felt that they had very few options left — basically, because we don't have any leverage over the houthis — and they probably felt that making a stand, doing something, was going to show the houthis that they couldn'tjust act with impunity. the problem is that history tells us that the houthis do not respond to violence. they do not respond to air strikes as a deterrence. the houthis need to ask themselves — how much of their capability do - they want degraded and disrupted, in light of these illegal, _ reckless and dangerous attacks? the economic impact on the us — the leading nation in the operation — has been limited, but that could change. so far, we really have seen very little effect on the us economy. some shippers are taking alternate routes that is leading to longer shipping times. but so far, that really hasn't had an effect on the us economy. but the red sea crisis has already had an impact, with electric vehicle manufacturer tesla saying that they were suspending some production in europe because of a shortage of components, due to concerns about shipping through the red sea route. how serious an impact economically on the global economy are the houthis�* actions, do you think? well, they're nowhere near as significant as if the freedom of navigation in the gulf was disrupted, because that would limit, that would reduce the supply of natural gas and oil to the global economy. in fact, so far, by and large, fuel has continued to go through the red sea. it's container ships that are actually doing the detour. who are the houthis? how did they come to power? the houthis are a group that takes its name from a family, the houthi family, and their former leader, hussein al—houthi. he was killed in 2004, but their current leader, abdul—malik al—houthi, is obviously from the same family. in fact, he's the brother. so, this is a family enterprise, but that has grown way beyond the houthi family. and what started as essentially a rebel movement in yemen's north—west has grown into a movement that now controls all of this area in the west of yemen, including a vast amount of coastline. what sort of support do they have in yemen? how popular or unpopular are they? well, when they came to power — by force — in september 2014, they rode on a ticket of anti—corruption, of standing up for the people against a very unpopular government that had been supported by the west. the houthi government in yemen is only recognised by two countries, iran and syria, but iran's support is crucial. it's trained them and supplied them with powerful missiles and drones, turning the houthis into a regional force hostile to the west, to its allies, and especially israel. when the world was paying attention to other crises, the houthis were receiving a lot of equipment — missiles, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and, of course, drones — from iran. and they have really amassed quite an arsenal and they've been unleashing this arsenal at us military ships, as well as regular commercial ships transiting through the red sea. translation: the yemeni nation and the houthi government - has done a greatjob. there's always been a debate about, how much does iran control its proxies in the region? in iran itself, iranian leaders have occasionally noted that the individuals to whom they provide weapons, such as they have given to the houthis, don't always respond to their direction. the houthis signalled their intention to disrupt maritime trade in the red sea at the end of 2023, showing solidarity with hamas and demanding an end to the blockade of gaza. translation: the yemeni armed forces continue to prevent israeli ships - from navigating in the red sea and the arabian sea _ until the israeli aggression - against our steadfast brethren in the gaza strip ceases. so, why are the houthis doing this? firstly, this policy is proving very popular at home. it's a useful distraction for the houthis, who have brutally repressed their own population. they've fought a long civil war against the forces of the weak, but legitimate, yemeni government. they've shelled their own cities, planted land mines and withheld food aid. the saudis, who've also been fighting the houthis, are accused of bombing numerous civilian targets in yemen. the houthis have effectively won the civil war, but they've struggled to run the country. infrastructure is barely functioning. health services are virtually nonexistent. the economy is hobbling, at best. they need something to rally support around, and the palestinian cause has proven to be just that. most houthis have never met a palestinian, but they see themselves as part of what iran calls its "axis of resistance" against israel, along with hezbollah in lebanon, hamas in gaza and iranian—backed militias in syria and iraq. is this an extension of the gaza war, or is this something completely separate? so it is, first of all, yes, an extension of the war in gaza. the houthis themselves have said that they are targeting commerce that's israel—related. we know that what they really mean by this is us—related or global commerce, something that will put pressure on the united states and its allies, including the gulf states, to come to the rescue of the palestinian people in gaza. perhaps, of course, to come to the rescue of hamas. houthis can try to make this out as an action in support of israel. what they're really doing is disrupting a waterway through which 15% of the world maritime traffic travels. their actions in the red sea, while condemned by the un, have proved popular with many in the middle east, as it's seen as taking a stand against israel's bombardment of gaza. this spate of attacks in the red sea is probably one of the most popular things they've ever done because there is a general feeling, not just amongst their base, notjust in yemen more broadly, notjust in this arabian peninsula, but around the arab world, that somebody needs to stand up for the palestinians. how opportunistic, or how genuine is that? i think it's a bit of both. there's no doubt that there is some genuine feeling behind this, because the houthis�* slogan for two decades, at least, has been "death to america, death to israel, "a curse on thejews and victory to islam". so if you are positioning yourself as the defender of palestine against israel, then you would have to act in this situation. translation: the brave, - mighty and powerful yemen is today defending the oppressed and strong people of palestine. _ this is despite some western leaders insisting that this flare—up has nothing to do with israel and the war in gaza. it's not to do with gaza. it's not to do with israel. this is about the freedom of navigation. this is about the ability of ships to carry their cargo. the houthis, like most people in iran, are shi'ites, part of a minority branch of islam, which is often in violent conflict with the sunni majority, led by saudi arabia. much of the houthi leadership has visited iran, with reports that their fighters are being trained there in how to attack ships. iran is using this group to put pressure on israel. to put pressure on the united states. so, it's more thanjust a group of military attacks or a military action by the houthis, in response to what's happening in gaza. it's a military action as part of a global campaign against the united states that iran is waging. the houthis complete the jigsaw puzzle for iran. they complete the circle that it has around israel. so, we've got the houthis to the south of israel and the red sea and in yemen. and then, of course, we have hamas to the west of israel, in the gaza strip. then to the north, we've got hezbollah, backed by iran. both of which, of course, are designated terrorist organisations. and then you've got those proxy militias in syria and iraq that are also funded, trained, armed, supported by iran's revolutionary guard corps. so, this is a really dangerous moment for israel. any one of those partners could be activated and ramped up in their activities by iran. politically, this has emboldened yemen within the middle east to be seen as victims of western aggression. militarily, the damage to the houthis from the us—led air strikes is significant, but measured. the houthis can still launch missiles at ships. how does this end, or how does this evolve from here? does it get worse? i don't think it ends because the houthis have a lot of experience now of war, after nearly 20 years of on—off war in the region. they also have a very high tolerance for casualties, in a way that we would not. they are less concerned about the damage wreaked on their own populations and the misery that their actions inflict. and they don't have to be accurate. they can just lob missiles and drones into the red sea and that will have an impact because it will be enough to worry the international shipping market and, therefore, to rattle, ultimately, financial markets and have a knock—on effect, finally, on consumers inside the west. the us and the uk clearly see the hand of iran behind these attacks, something iran denies. private messages have been passed to tehran not to escalate this conflict further. they've always had three goals in life, the iranian leaders. number one is to stay in power. number two is to destroy israel. and number three is to push the us out of the middle east. the irony, of course, is that these actions have actually pulled the us back into the middle east, in a way that we were not before this latest crisis. we have a much larger maritime component. we have more aircraft on the ground and in the skies, and we have more defence assets deployed in the greater middle east as well. the conflict can be seen as yet another instance of crisis in the middle east, but take a step back and it can also be understood as being within the broader context of a divided world. this goes way beyond being a regional challenge. this is a global challenge. we're talking about a vital artery of global commerce, a critical maritime choke point. if you recognise that iran has supplied the houthi missiles that are targeting our shipping and iran is supplying weapons to russia to use in ukraine... ..you can't really avoid the conclusion that we're in an era of great power confrontation, where blocs are beginning to face off against each other. and in one camp, you have the us—led west, the liberal democracies, of which the uk is inextricably an important part. and in the other camp, you have the autocratic capitalists, led by china. i think the west is still on the back foot and doesn't really yet appreciate that it is facing, again, existential peril to its security, prosperity and values. and it may not have wanted it, it may not enjoy it, but it is going to have to respond to it and stand up for its interests. this latest flare—up has proved a major distraction for the war that's still raging in ukraine. in five years' time, we could be looking at multiple theatres, including russia, china, iran and north korea. ask yourself, looking at today's conflicts across the world, is it more likely that that number grows or reduces? today, us attention is focused not so much on pushing back president putin's forces in ukraine, but on how to defend and restrain israel, while preventing a full—scale war developing across the middle east. i will say that all of these things are interconnected, and that's why it's really dangerous right now. if we don't allow ukraine, provide everything to ukraine to win the war against russia as fast as possible, then other actors will challenge us, as we see right now in the middle east and in the south china sea. we and our allies will be challenged by these autocratic countries that are now really providing an axis of evil to counter us. translation: no-one authorised the bombing of yemen, _ just as no—one authorised nato to bomb libya in 2011. _ the same chaos can be seen in what is now being done i with regard to yemen. everyone can see that. washington's exculpatory- statements look very pathetic. if you look at russia, north korea, iran and its proxies, and china, because china is aiding and abetting them, all working together to counter us and european interests, values and, frankly, the international order. and we need to do as much as possible to address the greatest risk, the greatest challenge right now, which is the one posed by russia. there are many ways that this red sea crisis could play out. it could calm down. the houthis could decide they've made their point, or they could simply run out of missiles. but then again, it could also get a whole lot worse. either way, the threat to global shipping, whether latent or actual, is likely to persist for weeks, if not months. the red sea has become a whole lot more dangerous. hello there. so far, this week's weather has been dominated by disruptive storms, but they are now easing. the weather story calms and our attention will focus on just how mild it is for the time of year. just cast your mind back a week ago when we had lying snow and overnight temperatures of —14 in highland, scotland. now, we started off on wednesday with a cloudy note, a windy note in highland, scotland, but temperatures were sitting at five degrees. and that's because in the wake ofjocelyn, the wind direction is swung round to a south—westerly and we've got some milder air spilling in. in between this sort of pizza slice of frontal systems, there's a lot of cloud through thursday, but it will be very mild for the time of year. so that cloud will bring outbreaks of drizzle, poor visibility along west—facing coasts, more persistent rain moves out of northern ireland and moves into northern scotland. cloudy for most of us. but the story certainly is just how mild it's going to be. now this time of year, we should see in the london area, let's say around seven or eight degrees, we're going to see a maximum on thursday afternoon of 13 celsius, so incredibly mild. now, as we move out of thursday into friday, we've got this weather front to bring some outbreaks of heavier rain overnight. but once that clears, a ridge of high pressure will quieten the story down. so rain clearing its way east, the temperatures falling away a little behind it under those clearing skies and one or two sharp showers. but it means a different story on friday in terms of the amount of sunshine. with that little ridge of high pressure, there'll be more sunshine, some showers into the far north and west and here a freshening wind. but nevertheless, the sunny spells will continue. spells will continue for most of us. it'll be a pleasant day, maybe a little bit fresher. but with the sunshine around, i suspect it will be worth it. so highs of 7 to 12 degrees. now, as we move out to friday into the start of the weekend, we are likely to see that weather frontjust meandering in the far north of scotland. always stronger winds here, the isobars squeezed together and outbreaks of rain. but under the influence of high pressure, the majority of the country will be dry with some sunny spells around. and still with that wind direction coming from a south—westerly still mild forjanuary, there will be outbreaks of rain though north—west of the great glen here, nine or ten degrees, highest values, ten or 11. now, the jet stream at the start of the week was pretty powerful and it was deflecting these areas of low pressure across the uk. but the jet stream is then set to weaken and it moves way to the north. so once we are on the south side of thejet, the milder side of the jet and the weather story will stay on the whole relatively quiet. a large area of high pressure is going to dominate across europe. it blocks most of the low pressures moving in, so they will topple across the high from time to time. so there's always a risk of some wet and windy weather. but as you can see by the rainfall accumulation for next week, the heaviest of the rain will stay along north and west, facing coasts. it's largely dry and largely quieter through central and eastern parts of the uk. so looking ahead, the mild theme is set to continue. there will be outbreaks of rain at times, but chiefly to the far north and west. all in all, a little bit quieter than the story we've seen so far. take care. welcome to newsday, reporting live from singapore, i'm i'm steve lai. the headlines... russia has accused kyiv of shooting down a military plane, it says was carrying ukrainian soldiers, to a prisoner of war exchange. ukraine president volodymyr zelenskt calls for an international investigation. and tank shells hit a un facility sheltering tens of thousands of people in southern gaza — killing at least nine people. golden treasures — looted years ago by british soldiers are now heading back to ghana under a landmark deal. hundreds of thousands of workers have gone on strike in argentina in protest at the new president's radical economic reforms. the un security council is meeting thursday to discuss the mystery surrounding the shooting down of a russian military transport plane. moscow says the plane was carrying ukrainian