Transcripts For BBCNEWS France Decides 20170423 : comparemel

BBCNEWS France Decides April 23, 2017

Policeman was killed. Security has been stepped up today. The Interior Ministry put 50,000 extra Security Personnel at the Polling Stations up and down the country. It seems to have done the trick. Some healthy cu es have done the trick. Some healthy cues up and down the country. The turnout rate which has been predicted so far somewhere near where it was in 2012. Yet again, in the face of terrorism, the french people showing themselves to be hugely resilient. Which is a good thing because we can focus on the election, the candidates, the policies that matter to the french people. Not since 1958, in the founding of the Fifth Republic, have we seen Something Like what we are witnessing here tonight. Politics in france has been dominated by the two party system but it could well be this evening that the main two parties are eliminated in the first round. We see. Lets talk about the focus candidates we need to focus on. Emmanuel macron, 39. He would be the youngest president of modern times. Formerly the Economy Minister in the Socialist Party but spirit and a yearago in the Socialist Party but spirit and a year ago started own party, en marche . He was at the top of the polls on friday evening. We will show you that in a second. There he is voting earlier today. The other person we are focusing on, of course, Marine Le Pen of the Front National, the far right party, who has been voting today. It is a little like the rust belt of france where she was voting, a bit like the northern states for donald trump that did so well for him in the election. She gets a lot of support up election. She gets a lot of support up there, a regional councillor there. She was just behind up there, a regional councillor there. She wasjust behind Emmanuel Macron in the polls on friday evening at the end of the campaign. Running her close, quite extraordinary, because Francois Fillon has been dogged by allegations throughout the campaign. He has hung on. For recent days and weeks he has shown himself to be quite resilient in the polls. Here he is voting in paris today, the former Prime Minister still in with a very good shout indeed. He will run Marine Le Pen close. So the far left candidate also, Jean Luc Melenchon. Quite an extraordinary campaign, hayley has been around for a long time. Aligned with the Communist Party. Run his campaign, i think last week he was in dijon. Campaigning in six cities through his hologram. He has connected with young people through social media and got himself into a prominent position in the polls. Really, the sorry story, you would have to say, off the campaign has been the socialist candidate, benoit hamon, who has never ta ken. Socialist candidate, benoit hamon, who has never taken. Suffering under the legacy of Francois Hollande, many people perceive in france not to have done a good job over the last five years. Whether that is fairor last five years. Whether that is fair or not. He was in Single Digits in the polls on friday. He really would be considered to be the outsider in this race. It show you the final poll. This poll was published at 6 30pm on friday. Emmanuel macron out in front followed by Marine Le Pen, and also we have Francois Fillon and Jean Luc Melenchon. Back with us for another election is dominique, a very good friend of the bbc, french Political Scientist Amorsino Councillor of the think tank in paris. A warm welcome to you, thank you for being with us. Have you seen an election as unpredictable as this before . Never, iio. Unpredictable as this before . Never, no. And the global director of one of the main polling agencies here in france. You are going to help us through the first projections we will see this evening. Tell me a bit about those projections, where do they come from, how are they gathered . What is important to say, were not polling people at all. This is ballot counting. We have built a big sample of Polling Stations, and thats why its a bit more difficult today, because we have one hour less to do so, considering the Polling Stations are closing later. So we are here to assist to the counting of the ballot, and then we consolidate the result until the moment. Ballot, and then we consolidate the result untilthe moment. It ballot, and then we consolidate the result until the moment. It will be an evolving picture through the evening. Absolutely. There is also a possibility, we need to say this, that we will fine tune the result throughout the night. 0k. It will be so throughout the night. 0k. It will be so close, because as i was saying, we have not seen an election like this probably in the entirety of the Fifth Republic. No, this time its different, this time its different because the big classical figures of french politics that were Nicolas Sarkozy, Francois Hollande. French politics that were Nicolas Sarkozy, Francois Hollande. The former Prime Minister, are not present. They were simply eliminated or chose not to run, because their unpopularity was too high, in the case of Francois Hollande. This time its different because the two Classical Parties may simply not be present on the second round. This time its different because you have someone time its different because you have someone that seems to be coming from nowhere, very young, very attractive, Emmanuel Macron, who is trying to do what has never been achieved. In other words, trying to do what has never been achieved. In otherwords, to trying to do what has never been achieved. In other words, to win an election by saying i am neither right nor left, i select from the left programme what i think is good for france, and i select from the programme of the right what is good for france. We are looking to see if the trend we have seen in britain with brexit and in the United States with brexit and in the United States with donald trump, if it follows in the third biggest economy here in europe. Strictly speaking a Manual Macron is not an outsider . He is the incarnation of the french elite. National school of administration, banker. But hes also a complete outsider in the sense that he is so new in politics. Hes never run for office. I dont think it would be possible in another country. Hes a romantic, literary figure. His wife says its difficult to live with someone says its difficult to live with someone who takes himself forjoan of arc. But physically bernard part. When people look at the polls they will be, will be amazed Francois Fillon is still hanging around. Would it be possible Anywhere Else . How has he hung on . |j would it be possible Anywhere Else . How has he hung on . I think we are doing lots of core research, as well. In that research you cannot change people from the right, some of them. So they told us, 0k, first the others are doing the same, but also he is probably the only one, evenif also he is probably the only one, even if it is by default, is the only one. They are focused on his programme. So i think yes, by the way, has dropped a lot from the beginning. Because he was the fancied candidate. In a really good position right now. We will see tonight, but i think its complicated for him. A respected of the result, there will be millions of people in france who have voted forfar right of people in france who have voted for far right and of people in france who have voted forfar right and far of people in france who have voted for far right and far left. What does that say about the french system at the moment . Well, it says a lot about the french mood. It says a lot about the french mood. It says a lot about populist at large. In fa ct, a lot about populist at large. In fact, you can read the French Election in comparing them with the Brexit Result in Great Britain or with the election of donald trump in the United States. From that standpoint you have three keywords anger, angerat standpoint you have three keywords anger, anger at the elite, rejection of them a fear of the future and of the other and a strong element of nostalgia for a france that no longer exists. That was much less diverse. You were telling me that for all the policies that have been discussed in this campaign. You still believe europe with the central core issue . Absolutely. First it was a bit like the elephant in the room. It became more and more explicit afterwards. We have a usual dividing lines between right and left, of course, between also liberalism and elitism, but there is a third one, which was a much more important one for selection, which are openness, europe, globalism, Versus Closure and sovereignty and nationalism. I think it really made the difference, because every subject was related, were related to that. Immigration, security, even taxation and environment, everything was related to europe. I think this is pretty new. And of course all eyesin is pretty new. And of course all eyes in europe will be on this election. You have two eurosceptic candidates in the top four, Jean Luc Melenchon and Marine Le Pen. There a re lessons melenchon and Marine Le Pen. There are lessons in this notjust for france but those in brussels as well. Very much so. In fact, the french today are voting for europe or against europe. They are voting for democracy against democracy. This is the first time you could say this is the year of france, in electoral terms. This is not only the most uncertain election in the history of the Fifth Republic, but it is the most important one, coming ata it is the most important one, coming at a key moment. There will be two interpretations. Never two without three may mean brexit, trump and Marine Le Pen or numbered two without three can mean austria, The Netherlands and no france, A Beacon Of Hope in the fight against populism. Im bound to ask you, for our british viewers who are watching, which of these candidates would be better for watching, which of these candidates would be betterfor brexit watching, which of these candidates would be better for brexit and which would be better for brexit and which would be better for brexit and which would be worse for brexit . Would be better for brexit and which would be worse for brexit7m depends which brexit you mean chappell there is the debate itself. When we see theresa may, im not sure what she will go for, you know. Emmanuel macron threatening to ta ke know. Emmanuel macron threatening to takejobs know. Emmanuel macron threatening to take jobs but probably, maybe dominique will complete my answer, but probably the negotiations will be harderfor the but probably the negotiations will be harder for the uk but probably the negotiations will be Harderfor The Uk with Emmanuel Macron than it would be with Marine Le Pen, of course. I will get your thoughts on that in a second. 0ur Worldview is going to go away for a break. You are watching bbc news. 0k. Ok. We focused a bit of voters in france today. Good queueing up and down the country, and lots in london. A big constituency in london. A big constituency in london. I believe they were waiting over an london. I believe they were Waiting Overan Hourand a london. I believe they were waiting over an hour and a half in london where they were voting. Important constituency. Hugh schofield has been out and about today testing the mood, and he has been to the seven are spot in france where many people have been voting today. Lets take a look. You join me look. Youjoin me in look. You join me in the 17th zone of paris where the school has been turned into a Polling Station. Im not allowed to go and film inside the Polling Station but i have been inside personally and i can tell you that are long, long queues of people in that. It is very busy indeed, suggesting that the Terrorist Attack not far from here three days ago now has not had any impact on peoples willingness to turn out and vote. Across the country they are saying at lunchtime is 28 , 29 , which is pretty good, and broadly in line with past president ial elections when turnout does tend to be very high indeed. We go down here and we will see in a moment the long line of election posters for all 11 candidates. 11 candidates overall, but only four have got any serious chance of getting through to the second round. Marine le pen, Francois Fillon, Emmanuel Macron and Jean Luc Melenchon. 0ne Francois Fillon, Emmanuel Macron and Jean Luc Melenchon. One of the key factors in this election, i think, is going to be to see how much tactical voting goes on. Because there will be some people, but how many we dont know, who are tempted to vote for Marine Le Pen but will in fact vote for Francois Fillon, in order to keep out Emmanuel Macron. At the other end of the spectrum there will be people who want to vote forJean Luc Melenchon but will say no, we will vote for Emmanuel Macron in order to prevent Marine Le Pen and Francois Fillon going through. Its an points out that this election will hinge. We have our correspondence out and about at all of the headquarters of the main candidates this evening. Lets go around the country and visit some of them. First in the calais region. What kind of day have you had there, catty adler . Ican i can tell you its pretty full linear but pretty full outside as well. A lot of the Party Faithful queueing and shouting their support for Marine Le Pen outside the gate. Here there is a lot of tension, as there is across france today. Marine le pen has spoken in her campaign In The Name Of the people. She has talked about revolution and tried to do something revolutionary, by having her Party Outside paris, away from those she calls the elite. And in northern france where she made her political name. The problem for her and her supporters, along with her and her supporters, along with her being at the top of the polls, three others have been as well. It has been too close to call. There is a lot of nail biting going on in the room tonight. No body is quite sure. Polls will be closing very soon now and we will get an idea if she is in or out of the second round. What is it about their that mean she does well . Is it deindustrialisation, employment, poverty, a combination of all those things . It is all of that. If you look at the history of the National Front, its that. If you look at the history of the nationalfront, its known as the nationalfront, its known as the far right racist party. It was the party of Marine Le Pens father. When she took it over, she tried to make the party more attractive to mainstream voters. She was inspired to do that here. She was a local councillor here. She saw for herself the damage that was done in areas of france where Big Industrial towns we re france where Big Industrial towns were suddenly shut down and became depressed economically. Youth unemployment here runs at 30 . People feel forgotten and hidden away. That is why she has chosen to put her Election Party here, to say, i havent forgotten you. Shes very strong in her campaign, not only anti immigration but pro welfare state. Helping frances poorer families, writes for the workers. She says france for the french and all of the friend, not just the rich but the poorer as well. That rings very tr

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