europe: scotland's dilemma, allan little travels to moray, the part of the nation which came closest to voting leave, to find out what the decision could mean for workers and business owners. scotland's streets are full of tributes to those who have helped shape the country and wider europe. thinkers, poets, warriors. but now scotland is torn between two identities, its british self and its european one. scotland can now no longer belong to both. this dilemma is brewing into an acute constitutional crisis. what effect will leaving the eu have on those whose livelihoods have been shaped by european membership for decades? what we need to know and know fast is where our future workforce is going to come from. and how will scotland cope as britain leaves the single market? 80% of all the food we sell out of scotland goes to europe. europe is the ball game for our export right now. scotland did not choose this. it rejected a brexit but brexit is being thrust upon it. what would that do for the 300—year—old union between scotland and england? we are being taken out of the eu against our will. that is a democratic outrage. it is not about whether there could be another independence referendum. of course there could. it is about whether there should be one. it is about whether there should be one. this week, the prime minister will trigger article 50 and pose special questions for those in scotland and northern ireland that did not vote to come out of europe. nine months ago, just before the referendum on european union membership, i made this observation. it seemed hypothetical at the time. would a vote to leave the european union propel scotland further down the road to independence? it certainly changes the independence proposition in ways we haven't begun to consider. it would confront scotland with a new national question. which union do you want to be part of, the british one or the european one? that is an argument we haven't started to have. it is not hypothetical now, it is real and urgent. the uk appears to have voted out, scotland has voted in. we voted to protect our place in the world's biggest single market and the jobs that depend on it. what i am proposing cannot mean membership of the single market. we voted to safeguard freedom to travel, live, work and study in other european countries. brexit must mean control the number of people who come to britain from europe and that is what we will deliver. i want to take the opportunity this morning to speak directly to citizens of other european countries living here in scotland. you remain welcome here, scotland is your home and your contribution is valued. last summer's eu referendum bill left the uk looking like two different countries articulated into mutually hostile visions of the future. a second independence referendum, if and when it comes, will be fought on different terrain. how does brexit change the independence prospectus? it makes it in some ways more likely that scotland will become independent but also more difficult. it does. this time round, nicola sturgeon is linking scottish independence with eu membership. they are inextricable. that wasn't the case first time round. you also had the problem in the snp that a good third of their members support getting away from brussels, so how does she square that? opinion polls suggest that some who voted no to independence in 2014 have moved into the yes camp because of brexit. but what about those who want out of both unions? this is lossiemouth. moray prize by selling whisky across the world and bringing in tourists. in the eu referendum, they came closer than any other part of scotland to vote leave. why was it the closest? i think the age demographic comes into it and the military factor. we are very much an raf, navy and army area and a lot of the people that have settled here are very pro the union. the snp has made the assumption that anybody who votes for independence will want to remain in europe but that is just not true. most of them actually want to get out of europe. it is something i learned when i was an snp candidate. i hadn't appreciated it untilfour years ago. why do so many people here want to leave the british and european union? the snp supporters in this area are really staunch once. they are passionate. the bottom line is that they really want independence. they are fiercely independent. a few miles to the east, the river spey empties into the sea. the river feeds two of the country's biggest industries, whisky and tourism. the mainstream currents of scottish public opinion contain many unexpected eddies. moray is happy to send mps from the snp to westminster and holyrood but in 2014 voted no to independence. a substantial minority who voted yes to independence went on to vote to leave the european union. a second independence referendum offering independence in europe would present that group, those who wanted independence for scotland but to leave the eu, with a new dilemma and a new choice. which union do you want to leave more, the british one or the european one? whether you are for eu membership or against it, something that unites many people is that these decisions should not be imposed on us, they should be taken for ourselves. in 2014, the no campaign said to vote no to stay in the eu. then we were told to vote remain to stay in the eu. scotland voted both of those things and are still faced with getting taken out of the eu against our will. that is a democratic outrage and it resonates with many people. how does that appeal to democratic outrage measure up against economic anxiety? moray is not a wealthy area, margins are taken, many incomes low. brexit raises questions for all of us about the viability of the companies we work for and the jobs that sustain us. scotland's first minister will have to appeal to the public for whom there is already too much uncertainty. europeans make up sometimes up to 90% of our business in june, july and august. it is important they are made to feel welcome. how much do you rely on migrant labour? 40% is quite normal but i know that hotels in london it is 100% of staff. that is going to give us real issues. it is not as if this is a new problem for our industry because we have had immigrants, either from the commonwealth or from europe, for as long as i know. but what we need to know and need to know fast is where our future workforce is going to come from. in britain there is1 million people roughly employed in the hospitality industry. unemployed, 800,000. if you could get 800,000 people to move to our industry, we are immediately 200,000 people short. trade changes. this is the railway station from which whisky was sent around the world. the distillery remains and the industry is one of scotland's great success stories and brexit is unlikely to change that. the rest of the food and drink industry in scotland cannot be that confident. this industry is now bigger in scotland's economy than oil and gas. this factory makes shortbread, another distinctively scottish product. more comes of this production line in a day than many of us could eat in our lifetimes. it generates this level of business because it is free to sell across europe. will those markets still be open after brexit? no one knows. 80% of all the food we sell out of scotland into international markets goes to europe. europe is the ball game for our export story right now so one quarter goes to france alone, so ongoing access to that market is going to be critical. to grasp opportunities for growth over the years. how much of a threat does brexit represent? presumably after brexit those who buy the products will continue to buy them. i don't think demand will be a problem. scotland has an increasing reputation as a land of food and drink, producing quality products. but there are huge unknowns about what brexit means. if we have huge export taxes on our products, we could become uncompetitive very quickly. after the brexit vote, the scottish government asked the uk government if scotland could negotiate a separate deal to stay in the single market. the leader of the scottish conservatives says that is not possible. it is not about what i think, it is about what is the 27 other nations think and they have said no. the foreign minister from spain said no. other european leaders said that is not on the cards. we negotiate with the uk as a whole, we don't go see with different bits of the member state. we don't suggest that that will be straight forward, without legal, technical and political complexities but we set out the complexities on the basis by which they could be overcome. but then that we would be within that we would reluctantly see scotland leave the eu but have measures that support our economy. scotland, britain as a whole, has not lose bids are dependent on european markets. for scotland that is a hypothetical question but for our land that is very real. this road bridges and invisible border. but for ireland, that's very real. this road bridge crosses the border between the united kingdom and the republic of ireland. it's one of more than 200 places where you can make the crossing, and it really is an invisible border. you could drive across here without noticing you'd left one country and entered another. after britain leads the european union, it was be legal of citizens of 46 other european countries to come here to the republic of ireland and get a job and claim benefits and use the services. but a few yards in that direction, there would be no automatic right to do any of that. that changes what northern ireland's biggest party, the democratic unionist party campaigned for. why did they dup back brexit? there's number of reasons. the european union is very good at creating regulations, it created hundreds on agriculture alone. ultimately, we believe that power is better invested at the local level, so we want more power to the local authorities, to regional assemblies, and ultimately to westminster. not to be vested into europe whether it's little accountability. do you except that britain's decision to leave the eu poses huge problems for the border between northern ireland and ireland ? oh, yes huge problems. do we have a hard or soft border? both britain and ireland have indicated they would prefer to have a free—flowing border. the truth is we had something like 16,000 troops here and many police officers and several roads close, and didn't stop things getting across the border. so i can't see that they will be able to enforce a hard border with 200—300 customs officers. the nationalist sdlp are fiercely pro—european. like the scottish government, they want the uk to negociate a special status for northern ireland that would keep it inside the single market. and keep the border open. for years, we have spent time getting rid of the border, making sure people could freely move and do business across the island and integrate. the good friday agreement made sure that both the republic of ireland and northern ireland were members of the european union. we have the ability as irish nationalists to integrate in that context. taking all that away is very damaging to our political and economic progress. what is the special status for northern ireland that you want to secure in europe? what does it look like? it look so much like what we have now. whether not we remain members of the european union, it doesn't need to look like that. we can do business and we can move across ireland. we don't have to try and harden that border. in fact, it isn't possible. there were 260 border crossings from the north to the south. the idea that you could control that border in some wayjust doesn't make any sense to me. i believe the problems we will face will be much less than the problems the republic of ireland will face as a result of the brexit vote. i think the irish government will have a lot of difficulties to deal with, not least that the country that they export most to is outside of the european union. the opening of the irish border has been transformative. 20 years ago, there were watchtowers and military checkpoints here. you can't come down this way. this border town was sunk in poverty and unemployment. partition devastated the economy of this area. it was a thriving port, midway between belfast and dublin. and that locational advantage with partition was a major disadvantage. it was tied up in the hard border. our sister town across—the—board, dundalk, was labelled al paso. the rural hinterland was stigmatised by the british media during the troubles as bandit country. little wonder no—one wants a return to hard border. london and dublin both say cross—border trade should remain free. but how, when the uk might well be porting goods from around the world that contravene eu import rules, could you stop those goods moving illegally across this border and into the european single market? again, no one knows. but if you live here, it's the most urgent question. i didn't sign up for this, this is not my dayjob, i'm not a politician, i don't want to be doing this. but i have grown up in this place, and i've seen it at its worst, and i've had the privilege of participating with others in its rebirth. and i don't want to lose that. membership of the european year has also transformed the irish republic. europe is at the heart of its national identity, and has been key to normalising its once acrimonious relationship with the uk. britain and ireland joined the european community on the same day in 1973. it is shared membership of that single european market that has made that border between them unimportant to the point of invisibility. in dublin, there is widespread dismay at the prospect of new border controls, and specimen too. the question is how hard the border is. even the softest borders, with switzerland, with norway, that are around the european union, have a requirement for customs clearances for document checking, etc. so that'll have to be the minimum there. that be disruptive. even if you have that going to take place in some magical way that british customs will be embedded in irish sports, which i can see, politically, then that has a consequence. there have to be additional costs imposed on exporters in the north going to the south and vice versa. whether not there's free movement of people is a different issue. free movement of people isn't a free movement of work, and free movement of work isn't free movement of goods. and all three have somehow been completed. ireland's border question finds an echo in scotland. for if, as london and dublin both desire, is found to allow trade to continue freely across the border, wouldn't that set a precedent for an independent scotland trading with a uk outside the eu? are there parallels between ireland and devolved scotland and a predicament that brexit puts a devolved scotland in? having voted overwhelmingly to remain? i think it does. this is one of the tensions playing out in ireland. there is an awareness growing at a solution for northern ireland could also have ramifications in scotland. so this idea is growing that is a border solution was found, said that then be a case used by an independent scotland, or a pro independence campaign in a future referendum. to say, you did it for northern ireland, why can't you do it for northern ireland, why can she do it with us? the border is one question, others remain. but currency with an independent scotland use, how would it close the gap between what it spends on what it races in taxation? for that gap is wide. and did it, should it, join the eu? this is the territory on which a second independence referendum would be fought. i can confirm today that next week i will seek the 40 of the scottish parliament to agree with the uk government of the details of a section 30 order. the procedure that will enable the scottish parliament to legislate for an independence referendum. i think, just now, we should be putting all our energies into making sure we get the right deal for the uk and for scotland in our negotiations with the european union. that's myjob as prime minister. right now, we should be working together, not pulling apart. should be working together to get that right it for scotland and the uk. that's myjob as prime minister. for that reason, i say to the snp, now is the time. theresa may could stop another independence in its tracks by agreeing to negotiate a separate deal for scotland. why would she do that? i have not had anyone in the s&p to tell me how a deferential deal only differentiates in geography. how can someone working in rbs working in edinburgh need something different in the eu negotiations, need some thing different from someone working at the same office, but in london? how can a fruit farmer in perthshire get something different from one in kent? i have asked again why this differentiation doesn't seem to apply, but geographic differentiation does. no—one in the snp can tell me. i know you are doing work on the currency question, we can no longer say we will shed the pounds? i'm not been difficult here, but i'm not going to jump steps and get into detailed discussions now. what i accept and have always accepted, is that scotland is, those of us who advocate independence have a duty to a nswer the questions people need answers to, and that includes questions about economic stability and around the currency. in this context, it will undoubtedly include questions about our relationship with the european union. firstly, we are in a processjust now when i havejudgments to make, and so does the prime minister, and i will make those in good order and based on what i think is best. i am not going tojump ahead several steps. when it comes to fighting for independence in a second referendum, will you be straight and say, scotland inherits as an as an independent country a part of the deficit. there will be pain, spending cuts, tax increases are big borrowing or accommodation of all three. i will always be straight with people. scotland as part of uk has a big deficit. we have had apart the past five years spending cuts. exit is undoubtedly going to make the uk's deficit worse. it will lead to greater spending cuts in the uk and greater pain as a result. the question for scotland is not how do we escape magically a deficit, is it how do we best equip ourselves to deal that deficit and grow our way into a more sustainable position with our own values underpinning the decisions we take. that is the decision that would be in play if scotland was making that choice again. this week, nicola sturgeon will seek authority for a second independence referendum. scotland voted to stay in both unions. it's being told now that it can't have both. it's also being told it can't choose. the decision will be made at westminster. the political strain that will place on the anglo—scottish union is surely clear. it's a beautiful day out there, look at this beautiful shot across the highlands of scotland, snow glinting off mountains, some parts of eastern scotla nd off mountains, some parts of eastern scotland reaching 19 degrees, you will see it heading out, a fuel—air is, it might be cold to night. don't forget the clocks go forward, he will get and how a less sleep tonight. it will be cold, clear skies, one or two patches possible. clear and starry all night long, cold one by dawn, temperatures well down too low to middle single figures, as we have seen in the last few nights. brutal spots getting down to —4 minus five. cold one, what a contrast, down in the first day, the new formula 1 season will be warm and sunny in melbourne. 27 degrees, it won't be as warm as that, ten o'clock allows you bit of time to get up because the clocks are going forward. any mist patches will not last all that long, it will be sunshine from dawn to dusk for the vast majority of us. still that breeze. it will be out in the breeze and not in the sunshine, it will feel distinctly fresh sour we say, not feeling that warm for all of us. a delightful late march day, this is where it will feel. along the eastern coast, that breeze coming off the north sea, temperatures kept well down, inland low to mid teen territory. and almost, probably the west of scotland i fancy, going as high as 18 or 19 degrees. the lot of football taking place tomorrow evening, if you are heading out, ta ke evening, if you are heading out, take a fuel—air is because it will cool off quite quickly once the sun has set. it will stay dry for all of these games. looking further ahead. the sunny spell doesn't last for ever. it was to edge in our direction through the early parts of next week, slowly but erratically it will turn more unsettled and more cloud, there will be some showers particularly by tuesday. so enjoy the sunshine while it lasts. all of the sunshine while it lasts. all of the latest on the weather, i will be back with more detail in half an hour's time. this is bbc news. the headlines. ukip‘s only mp, douglas carswell, is standing down from the party but will stay on as an independent mp. he tells us he's achieved his main objective with the party. we can be absolutely certain that brexit is in good hands. we are going to leave and all of the things that vote leave campaigned for are going to come to pass. it's wonderful. ukip says carswell‘s resignation isn't a surprise. the people who voted for ukip didn't really vote father ukip because douglas carswell was there, i mean, he is has been a semidetached person for a long time with this party. frankly, this is rather a nice breath of fresh air that this is now behind us.