a nationwide security crisis. now on bbc news, dateline london. hello and welcome to the programme, which brings together leading british commentators with journalists from overseas who write, blog, podcast and broadcast to audiences in their home countries from the dateline: london. this week — liz the disruptor, emmanuel the moderniser, vlad the invader. the first has a comfortable majority but has already had to wave the white flag. the second vowed to reform, and the voters promptly deprived him of his majority. the third can ignore his parliament, but perhaps not the people, who are voting with their feet. leadership — who wants it? in the studio to discuss that triumvirate, a dateline triumvirate. jeffrey kofman, who's anchored news programmes in both his native canada and the united states, and reported from the frontline. marc roche, a belgian—born economist who writes for the french news magazine le point. polly toynbee, weekly columnist with the guardian for almost a quarter of a century. lovely to have you on this, the penultimate dateline. welcome to all of you. let's start with liz truss and her week. marc, you are an economist. someone who is not unsympathetic with conservative values. what do you make of the u—turn on the top rate of tax? well, it was not a project of industrialised g7 countries. it was, this tax cut, simply like an emerging country where you launch policies but you don't say how you will finance it. you might do borrowing, etc, but you don't say. it was astonishing, even if some of the measures make sense, like the bonus — why not to attract bankers back to london to compete with new york or singapore? you could say the freezing of the corporate tax will be good for small and medium companies, and will do good. but really diminishing abruptly, not only is it very unsociable, unthinkable on the continent, and in france you would have a revolution. laughter. it's terrible at a time of high deficit. and it will be even a bigger deficit. the mystery of it all is that the rate of borrowing of the uk is still very low, almost like the us, or france, but it will come, where the markets have shown already unhappiness. this plan is influenced by the chancellor being a hedge fund man. he worked in the hedge fund, thanks to him hedge funds have done a killing with betting against the pounds. instead of siding with the city, which is helping investment industry and commercial banking, they side with the parasite, the speculators. polly, the next battleground is going to be public spending. we keep going on about unfunded tax cuts, £15 billion worth. inflation is already eating into public spending. departmental budgets set before inflation shot up will, in real terms, have shrunk quite a lot. where are they going to cut, where can they possibly cut when they're only two years out from an election? there's really nowhere for them to cut because we've had after all 12 years of austerity. ever since 2010, when the conservatives came in, their very first budget was to cut, cut, cut again, hhuge amounts from benefits and from every department. and as a result, there is a backlog in every public service. quite extraordinary, i would think exceptional in europe, to have a court system, which has collapsed, so that if the police arrest somebody, want to take them to court, it might be two or three years before the case comes up in court. they shut down a lot of courts, they fired a whole load of people. that's just one example. but the health service is on its knees despite having been cut a bit less than the others. the social care system is almost non—existent. i don't think she has any room for manoeuvre with any cuts. what's interesting is that the public polling and the focus groups are all saying, we didn't really need a tax cut, we needed our public services to work, we need schools to work. teachers are paid 8% less than they were in 2010. health service workers are paid less. you can't operate in that way, particularly when you've got huge numbers of vacancies and a shortage of people to filljobs. so i think whichever way she turns now, she's stuck. and the tax cuts are regarded as a massive mistake. benefit cuts is the one, and already there's a cabinet fight over that, cabinet colleagues are quite willing to say publicly they wouldn't go for that. extraordinary, at the conference itself, to have cabinet members actually saying, don't do this. because her tax cuts have already given 40 times more to people at the top than the people at the bottom. they would have done, if they hadn't. .. no, no — allowing for that. the institute for fiscal studies says, even allowing for the top tax cut having been taken away again, within the existing structure of income tax, that's what has happened. that's just not publicly acceptable. jeffrey, she did promise to be a disrupter. she promised to be a disruptor, based on phoney economics. i the zombie economics, saying, reagan did it. i if we look at history, reagan's tax cut... i if they worked for him, why not for us? they didn't work. that's the point. if you read any serious - economic analysis of the 1980s in the us, those tax cuts did not... - crosstalk. the trickle down... the bounce—back happened when clinton raised - taxes, in fact. this idea that cutting it - for the rich somehow makes the rest of us better off? it's an absurd ideology. what you're seeing clearly is that this country - is in the grip of- the right—wing version of a trotskyite. she is such a believer. in her own perfect view of the way we should go, i i kinda feel like it's the flip side of the jeremy corbyn coin. "they know better than we do what's good for us. _ "and don't let the facts get in the way." - she would say you've signed up to the anti—growth coalition. she would, and these i are very good rhetorical, you know, build back better. and these three—word rhymes that allow them to sayjust get it done or get brexit done, - whatever it was. she is hoping that it sticks and she can distract us- with this kind - of empty rhetoric. the reality is, i think- the people of britain really need to ask themselves what's going on. - we had a negligent prime . minister in cameron who let the referendum happen, - thinking he could sail through. we had a rudderless. prime minister in may, a narcissistic and vacuous i prime minister injohnson, and now this ideologue. i think the people of this country... | it's interesting, the polls. are so in favour of labour, it's two years away, . the world will change, but maybe this country is ready for someone who is boring - and just an earnest doer, like keir starmer. - but it's a long way - between now and then. it's a long way, and you'd advise them not to count any chickens, given the history of this country. absolutely. i have lived through so many times when labour was about to win. but this time really is exceptional, and all the pollsters say so. they've never seen anything like this. the move has been faster and deeperthan ever before towards labour. but the fear for people on that side of the policy is it could be shallow. if it goes one way, it could equally go back. but on the other hand, that level of popularity, you don't recover from. but on the other hand, that level of unpopularity, you don't recover from. you go into a black hole from which the pollsters say no leader has ever returned. it's hard to imagine - after 30—something days that they would change leaders again. - it would be very hard to do that. j but the reality is that we know politicians want to _ keep theirjobs. ultimately, - they will support... like we all do! exactly. but they are much more volatile and much more vulnerable. - about 180 of them are due to lose their seats, they can see it all there, and they won't let it happen. but they have no other solution, nobody else can save them now, it's too late. you don't think rishi sunak could come in and...? - he could, but he didn't have much popular support either. he'd do better probably. it's like the end of the major era — blair, whatever happened, we knew that blair would win, and i agree. do you think it feels the same? it feels completely the same. there was a blair mania in the �*90s, there's no starmer mania. three weeks of this, wait and see. major was, he tried everything and there were scandals and rebellion in europe, and maastricht, that left it to blair to take it. there's an old political axiom, let's talk in two years. - we will convene a special edition. we will. we will convenel a special edition. we will. that says that elections i are not won, they are lost. i think this is very much i setting up the possibility. i am completely aligned, it is the distant future. . you would not put any cash on it. - on eu membership, liz truss is a remainer turned enthusiastic brexiteer. as foreign secretary she wasn't sure whether emmanuel macron was friend orfoe. this week, there she was in prague during the grab and grin for the cameras with that suspect monsieur signing up to his project. a european community, of all things. absolutely fascinating. she has been rigid on everything else. really ideological, far to the right of boris johnson or most of the party. brexit was the main thing but suddenly we see her easing up. i think the reason is this, when she looks at the polls, at the focus polls, public opinion, they have had it with brexit. there's been a swing against it, but above all, get this done. you said you'd got this done, how could we be having wars with europe? we thought it was all over, we thought a deal had been struck? i think she just wants it to go away. there will be peace and it sounds as if the europeans have understood that that certain message and they themselves sending... definitely a change of tone. she will have to take off the table this bill that she's passed to say that she will unilaterally break the treaty. that will have to be taken away. it's all very doable. everybody wants peace, except the maddest of all... poor europeans, britain is back! hang on a minute. 27 eu members plus another 17. it's everybody, basically. only a french president like emmanuel macron could invent something that completely surreal in his mind and deliver it. because that's important. it is the configuration of the future of europe. confederation of the european union and the ten states who want to join and can't — britain and others. i'm intrigued, forgive me for being a bit old—fashioned, but isn't this what used to be called the multi—speed europe? yes, and britain wanted that, the french didn't. we got our way in the end! no, because the european union is stronger than ever. the proof is ten countries want to join and they can't join because of the financial thing. but also it's a great idea because it brings britain back and others back into the fold. this is also expedient for liz truss. - i think there's a long history of politicians having terrible | trouble at home, - making themselves into internationalists, - going on world tours, being seen on the stage. some of the world leaders were saying what a terrificj prime minister she is. one, it's a distraction - for her, it's probably a lot more fun . than sitting the house of commons. but it allows her to say, - "look, i can be a statesman, i can do these things". giving some ground, maybe a bit of nixon in china. - it's also macron�*s... he had no majority, there would be strikes in france, national front stronger than ever, extreme left, stronger than ever. what does he do? he goes abroad. he did, he repeated his determination to do what he had attempted in his first term, get pension reform. he has raised to 62 to 64 or 65, isn't it? and voters deprived him of the majority in which to do it. is he a lame duck at home? no! anyway, at the end, he is finished, there's only only two terms. i think more than ever the people don't like them. the french are emotional people. the british are not. and so, the french see themselves... i will not rise to that. said the belgian! laughter. naughty, jeffrey! but marc, is his legacy to leave behind this multi—state europe, to pull a much bigger brotherhood, sisterhood of states together at a time when we were back into a cold war state of mind, that will have been a great thing to do. a real sense that europe shares democratic ideals. around the edges, poland, hungary a bit worried about some of their democratic ideals but nevertheless, basically, it is democracies and that's helpful for america, too, for the strengthening of nato. i think that ukraine has suddenly concentrated everybody's mind. who are we? whose side are we on? what are our values, really? i think macron has brought that together very well. even if it's a strange mix — we have turkey who refuse sanctions, you have azerbaijan at war, you have serbia can't stand each other, nevertheless i agree with you, it's important. it might be the only macron legacy because in africa, he has failed. and truss also needs macron to solve - the immigration issue across the channel. . she can't do this without bilateral cooperation. i they did issue a statement to say we will renew our efforts to do that. they've got more money than the french to try and keep that very large coastline... that's not going to help with the public spending cuts! you mentioned africa — we'll park that for now, the intervention in the sahel, which he get out soon afterwards. he did say on friday was that he thought that the winter next year is going to be tougher than the winter this year. which is pretty ominous in terms of energy. we should probably talk about president putin, the birthday boy. 70 years old today. 70 years, yeah. somebody gave him a mountain of melons. i didn't see that. it's true. i did see there were a lot of orchestrated parties . for him or celebrations. a gift certificate from the president of belarus for a tractor. yes. i don't know why he couldn't just give them a tractor. anyway, that's another story. we don't have time for that. in terms of the situation he finds himself in, he said earlier this week he thinks the situation is going to stabilise in ukraine. i think it's more unstable than it's ever been. - i don't want to be a chicken little here but i do think. it's really alarming. this could go any way. i it wouldn't surprise me to wakel up one day and and find someone had put — a bullet in him or he detonated some minor nuclear bomb. i think those are the extremes. i hate the sort of have such am — it's such an open—ended l question but the blowback he's now getting this week is really extraordinary. - people in his own military- are standing up and questioning him and it's starting to l unleash more and more. that's when you start to feel like maybe he is not — - his iron grip is not so solid. the problem is as all military strategists have said give your enemy an exit. he has no exit strategy. i can't see what he can do other than utterly humiliating himself. i can't see a way out. it was fascinating, too, joe biden almost saying that in public. saying they were trying to work out what would be the exit strategy. the ukrainian will not give up territory afterj what they've gone through. i think you're right — i what are they giving? it's utter humiliation. but right now, he's being i humiliated and the evidence suggests that the troops i are ill—trained, ill—equipped and demoralised. you can't win a war, _ no matter how many more forced conscripts you throw at it. under those circumstances. of course, he could say, "i had a victory when they "diminished oil production." russia is not a member of the opec organisation. itan it an associate member. they were in vienna. why does it help putin? it gives him money. because the oil price will...? to finance the war effort. it's a short—term thing because the west is going into recession, so there will be less oil. there is already a big discount of russian oil because europe and buyers are reluctant because of public opinion for them. on the whole, the eu and us are deciding to put a cap of the price of russian oil. so, short—term victory but again, he has lost on the oil thing. of course, he has this big thing which is gas, which is completely different. i think when you see this mass exit of young men, because it is men... voting with their feet by leaving the country where they could. our focus should be - on the destruction of ukraine and this obliteration - of everything as they retreat. but at the same time, - his legacy for his own country is devastating. this mass exodus of - high—skilled workers who will who many of whom will never return is going to set - russia back two generations. all of the aspirationsl to be a global power, a creative power, an industrial power, a technological powerl are being destroyed by this wilful blindness of his - vanity and imperialism. it is so damaging long—term. will sanctions start to bite? international sanctions, which everyone has criticised. they were always going to take a long time. they are starting to bite. they can't get spare parts. so it will get worse for him. the catastrophe scenario is getting really scary. we shouldn't assume that things getting worse for him will necessarily produce the kind of russia that we could again be friends with. because the danger is when something bad happens in a country, they turn worse, not better. that could happen . at 10 downing street. yes! if somebody does get rid of him one way or the other, the chances are far more extreme people to the right, far more militant dictators will take over. and with their fingers on the nuclear_ and with their fingers on the nuclear bomb. _ yes, and much more slap—happy about nuclear arms. so it's quite scary. there is not a good option that i can see happening. i don't think there will be a sudden liberal blossoming... stick with him then? we don't know what's coming next? , , we don't know what's coming next? , ., ., next? just the war that never noes next? just the war that never goes away — next? just the war that never goes away in _ next? just the war that never goes away in that _ next? just the war that never goes away in that poor - goes away in that poor benighted zone. that's a terrible thought if you have to live in it. we mentioned opec. we will talk more about the states next week looking towards midterms, we'll talk more about china looking towards xi's probable third term. embarrassment for biden with that fist bump with saudi arabia, bin salman. "thank you very much for coming, mr president and no "we were not going to do..." we know that mbs, as he's called, we know his recordl with khashoggi — the dissident journalist who was literally - hacked up with a buzz saw - in the saudi embassy in turkey — it was uncomfortable enough that biden went and actually. bumped fists with him but now, it is a very. uncomfortable moment, to say the least. - i think it has to be a lesson for the whole world. the democratic world, you don't compromise with monsters. and saudi arabia has always been the exception. but actually, they are not. you have to treat them with the long spoon that you always should have done. i think the idea you could pretend they're friends, you might have to negotiate on certain things, but not friends or allies. but monsters with a lot of oili seem to have more influence. we have to get off oil. this is the reason why we have to go green because it will free us from dependence on dictators from putin to mbs. one common enemy saudi arabia and the west — and certainly in the us — has is iran, or the regime in iran. we've been talking about leadership, the protest over the death of mahsa amini. kind ofan kind of an the emperor has no clothes situation. extraordinary footage of schoolgirls apparently berating a member of the para military, i think phrase was "get lost, basiji". how serious a threat to the 43—year—old islamic republic is it with these protesters that people might want it to be but is it? i think we all suffer from wishful thinking when we see rebellions in countries that we don't — where we despise the leadership. i mean, those girls are unbelievably brave. and it's hard to believe that there won't be revenge against them and their families in one way or the other. never mind the ones that have already been shot down. we've seen uprisings before and iran. we know what a lot of people in iran want and feel. each time, they get put down. think of what we've seen in belarus. we thought for a moment there was going to be freedom in belarus. utterly crushed. it is very, very difficult to rebel against monstrous dictators — who have all of the weapons and all of the force on their side. each time, we hoped this might be... i mean, think about the great spring rebellions that we all hoped for so much from. yeah. now even tunisia has lost... all these places. so, we have to be very careful about encouraging people doing things really dangerous. iagree. i think the best hope —i we've seen this before. the ayatollah is - unbelievably conservative and harsh, brutaland he's 83. i think the best hope is that when he diesl there's an opportunity. but even then — i covered cuba, castro was not - like the ayatollah, but castro died and the regime stayed. i i agree with you. we can wish and we can know what we think should be - the outcome, but the world doesn't work that way. - and we should be careful not to offer people encouragement without giving them any actual help. what's really worrying on top of it all in the unsecure world we're living in, it's impossible not to have an agreement on nuclear with tehran. because the hardliner won't want it, the opinion in the west won't want it, so we might soon have a side of ukraine, have middle east problems with atomic weapons. it's a disturbing prospect. look, thank you all very much. thank you for being in dateline over many years. you won't be with us, sadly, next week. i hope you will be with us next week for the final edition of dateline after 25 years. we will have one guest who was there right at the start next week. we will be talking about the us midterms and the prospects for china. looking ahead, not looking backwards — that's what we try to keep doing. thank you very much for being with us. see you the same time next week. goodbye. sunday was a tale of two halves, weather—wise. we had nearly 19 degrees and nine hours of sunshine in southern and eastern areas but we had heavy rain and strong winds in northern ireland and scotland. places like tyndrum in stirlingshire had another 40mm or so of rain, adding to what has been a very wet first week of october. in fact, that's not far away — it's about three quarters of the average october rainfall — and that rain still heading its way southwards. it'll drag its heels before clearing southern and eastern areas, so much milder here overnight. a little bit of mistiness ahead of it. chillier to end the night further north, and still windy, those winds buffeting the northern isles and far north of scotland in particular. that rain giving a lot of spray and standing water on the roads as it continues itsjourney southwards and eastwards, particularly on the faster routes. once it clears away, it's a day of sunny spells and showers but much brighter for scotland and northern ireland. still quite a rash of showers in the north and west but not many, really, reaching east of the grampians or through central lowlands and, again, eastern parts of northern ireland. and not that many at all across england and wales. but temperatures will be a degree or two down because the winds coming from the north—west instead. but the wind then falls a little lighter as we go through monday evening and overnight. we may pick a little bit more cloud up towards the north and west but it's not going to stop our temperatures falling much and it looks like a chilly night. quite widely, a touch of grass frost, could be close to freezing in some rural parts of england and wales in particular. and with a ridge of high pressure overhead here as well, there's more likely to be some mist and fog issues and at this time of year, without that strength in the sunshine, they can linger till mid morning and cause a hazard on the roads. but otherwise, lots of dry and bright weather. plenty more sunshine but more cloud in the sky. for scotland and northern ireland, some drizzly rain coming in later in the day, particularly to the north and the west, and that takes shape, then, through the night tuesday and into wednesday. not for england and wales again. a few issues with mist and fog. quite chilly in rural parts. much milder with that cloud and rain further north, which will then meander its way southwards during the day on wednesday to most areas but we look towards the atlantic, some uncertainty as to where exactly this next batch of wind and rain is going to go but it looks like southern areas could see some significant rain. and then some strong winds, even some gales and more rain for the northern half of the country on friday. so, it looks more unsettled laterfrom midweek on, really. this is bbc news. welcome if you're watching here in the uk or around the globe. i'm david eades. our top stories: president putin blames ukraine for what he calls a "terrorist attack" on a key bridge linking russia to crimea. translation: there is no doubt that this is an of terrorism, - aimed at destroying russia's critically important civilian infrastructure. no end to the protests across iran in defiance of violent repression by the security forces. scores dead and missing after torrential rains and landslides cause devastation in venezuela. taiwan prepares to celebrate its national day but it's in the shadow of growing economic and military threats from china.