Notice the cloud drifting in. The overall picture is one of fine conditions. Some showers over scotla nd conditions. Some showers over scotland this morning and for some areas during the course of the afternoon. 23 possible in the south east. 0n afternoon. 23 possible in the south east. On monday, a different kettle of fish, especially over scotla nd kettle of fish, especially over scotland and the North West Of England and of wales. More showery for northern ireland. In the east, nowhere near as bright day as today, but you stay dry for the most part until quite late on in the day when eventually you will get to see some of that and rain. Now on bbc news, it is dateline london. Hello and welcome to dateline london. Im shaun ley. In south africa, leadership confirmed. In kenya, leadership disputed. And as for north korea, is it kimjong un or donald trump who holds all the cards . With me to discuss this weeks displays of leadership are vincent magombe, director of the African Journalists network, africa inform international, Thomas Kielingerfrom germanys die welt, the sudanese writer nesrine malik, and the us born, london based Political Commentator ned temko. Fire and fury. If that wasnt enough, how about military solutions are now fully in place, Locked And Loaded . The us president s tweet on friday. Ned, how much of this is rhetoric bluster, and how much of it reflects a real change in the atmosphere of this relationship that has really been frozen in time for 60 years . The danger is we dont know. I will start by making a safe prediction. Safe if only because i am wrong, no one will be around to know. And that is, i am fairly confident we are not on the brink of nuclear war. But should we be worried . Absolutely yes. 0n the korean peninsula, even a conventional war could kill hundreds of thousands of people within a space of hours. In places like seoul, which is only minutes away from conventionally armed missiles, tokyo, and the second perhaps equally serious problem is crises like these become wars often by miscalculation or accident. Without getting into pop psychology, what is dangerous in this one is you do not have to be a psychologist, you have a president of the us who appears to have no impulse control, who appears to have neither much knowledge of, nor interest in policy issues, history, and whose main interest seems to be donald] trump, and i think what is important to realise about everything he says, the multiple craziness, the multiple crazinesses, is that it again reflects that this is a crisis that is about donald] trump, and if you heard him yesterday, rhapsodising about the tens of millions of people who are behind him and who did not like that weak george w bush, that terrible 0bama, and finally we have someone with abs in the white house. And that is not the kind of context in which you would like a crisis like this to play out. The north Korean Leader provides the sort of enemy that trump thinks makes him looks great. And vice versa. He can beat his chest and bang the drum, but it is an interesting sort of sideshow. We have the good cop and bad cop policy at the moment in america. He is the bad cop guy, who threatens and uses bluster and so forth, with very reasonable people around him who would not follow the trump line, so he cannot have it all. While you say it is about donald trump, it is also about the standing of american diplomacy in the world. You cannot allow a bull in a china shop to have his own way and threaten a kind of brink from which we are all. I am with you on that, but he does have the Nuclear Codes after all. It is interesting, since trump came to the white house, we speak in a forked tongue about donald trump. One moment we talk about his pathologies, the next we say, there is no way he will do it, and and every time he does it. We need to decide whether he is. He has done a lot of things the past six months that would have been unthinkable. I think we cannot fathom the depths to which the man will plummet, we always say, oh, this will put a brake on it, bureaucracy, military. But i have seen very little sign. What about transgender in the military, which was extraordinary. You had a president ial order that as of today there will be no more transgender people in the military, and the military ignored it. These questions pale before nuclear war. We dont know the military ignored it. We are talking more about beaurocratic confusion than resistance. Talking about quotes to quote donald rumsfeld. A giant now, in hindsight. Laughter he was an intellectual on the defence job, but he pointed out the things we dont know, but think we know. That is ten times more the case now when we talk about north korea. I heard one commentator refer to north korea as the strange mix of confucion with death cult. Nobody outside really understands the regime and therefore does not actually know how to calibrate its response. I am never surprised about what goes on in north korea. I was in russia for ten years under communist rule. That is what they do. The Theory Attempt of self defence and trying to make sure they protect their people and so on. But what i must say about this, the bbc should excuse me as i am using undiplomatic language. We have two mad guys, really mad, trump and that young man, as i say i am not very surprised about north korea. I dont think the young man would dare trigger a nuclear thing. Trump, i would be very surprised if americans, sensible as they claim to be, all those guys that we all talk about, sensible people around him, but all the same, this guy is very unpredictable and is totally out of order in terms of. But the powers that he has. I feel very strongly that he is just bluffing. How many times has he said, im going to build the wall, 0bamacare, i am going to take it away. Almost everything he has said very loudly, he is not able to do. So i think that this in a certain way, we should see it as a diversion from the internal problems facing donald trump. You could say the same thing about kim jong un. Some extenuating circumstances about trump, but perhaps we should also consider that he is confronted with an unknown north Korean Leader, and in the old cold war years at least you had the certainty of knowing how the mindset of the soviet union ticked, you kind of felt that you are in a safe environment, they subscribe to the same rules of engagement, and so forth. You do not know that about north korea. So this language that he employees could be a way to tweak out of the north korean mind, where do you stand . Always try to find reason in trumps case, always Laughter Method in the madness. You should Exchange Notes after the programme. The one area for potential optimism, because i agree with you, i dont think there are many adults in the room, but one of them is the secretary of defence. He himself said, he used the word catastrophic this week for the option of a war. He was sending that message to the white house as much to the rest of the world. Trump cannot have everything. He does have the Nuclear Codes. Unless they put his atm number and substitute it. We will move onto another continent that has much to discuss. That is the question of south africa. Of south africa and kenya. Two elections have taken place this week. South africas president jacob zuma has survived a vote of no confidence and carries on, and kenyas president kenyatta is back in power. An election that is still being contested as we speak by degas, an election that is still being contested as we speak by raila 0dinga, his long time rival. Is there real reason to believe it could have been stolen . I would try to defuse too much emotion about this question. Kenya is fairly democratic, and basically if you compare it to the neighbouring country, uganda, where elections were held in february, and now we have seen results. We have not seen for example the military on the Security Forces and kenya being used to rig the president. That seems not to have happened. Usually what they have, and we thought last time when thousands of people died in kenya, is at the point of declaring this result, so we see sometimes inconsistencies in results that have been declared in constituencies and those that have been announced in nairobi. There has been a little bit of that. But not to the extent that could overturn the election. The man who is supposed to have won, who is doing the right thing, he has now issued a very conciliatory statement saying, i am very happy and ready to work together. After the killings, they had to come into some sort of unity government. They have not got to the point of setting another unity government, but i believe very strongly and soon we might see 0dinga saying. If he does it, there is a real risk of the type but i believe very strongly and soon we might see 0dinga saying. Ijust accept this. If he doesnt, there is a real risk of the type of violence that we saw before, perhaps not thousands of people dying, but. Everyone seems to want to avoid that scenario, however passionate they feel about it, it is still enough within recent memory. Yes, there was opportunity to see that kind of violence before people pulled back from the brink. I think it was clear that the rewards would outweigh the consequences. When insecurity happened the first time, kenya was a thoroughfare for much of east africa in terms of transportation and infrastructure, oil, and when the last spate of instability happened, many african countries diversified their roots and pipelines, so i think in terms of regional instability, kenya has become less impactful. Internally, it has pretty much settled into a two party, two candidate system which is good for stability, not necessarily very good for the diversity. There is still this feeling in the west that they do not get their fair share of resources or political power. Exactly. That is why i think whenever there is an election, the impulse is to immediately reject it because there isjust so much at stake, and it seems unfathomable that one party has garnered all this support. But i think there will be a stepping back from the brink and some conciliatory language is being spoken. It is not quite as optimistic a picture in south africa. Strangely, given that there is no violence on the streets because of the outcome of this zuma vote. But interesting that zuma has eight of these confidence motions, he wins every one but this is the first one by secret ballot. He won by only one vote. Suddenly, has the game changed . I think so. We have predicted this for years but it never came to pass. I think what we are seeing now is signs within the anc that out of their own self interest, they recognise, you have. The greater tragedy than president zuma himself who after all has raised corruption to an artform, he is about to answer 750 separate. He denies all the charges. I want it on the record that they are not true as well. All im saying is that he has held that position consistently, the party has stood by him. I covered south africa in the final stage of apartheid and i went back when mandela was released. If you take this trajectory, firstly from mandelas miraculous period in rule, where there were, even mandela recognises these huge economic, racial and social issues, and he navigated that. You could argue that even under mbeki, although not his chosen successor, he would have preferred. You could argue that even under mbeki, although not his chosen successor, he would have preferred cyril ramaphosa. We have got to see these in the historical prism. What has served him is really that historical track of anc. That is the only way he was able to stay. Its so strange that one person, the young man what they call the Economic Freedom fighters, came upjust before the thing, and somehow said, well, look, there is something going on here. I would like to throw zuma away, but this seems to be about the anc. Some people want to derail the historical role of liberation and all that kind of stuff. That is what he was playing by and it has helped him. How much longer can that continue . Its a quarter of a century. It was triggered when the Finance Minister was sacked. Who is he . This is someone who supports and was the front line for western economic systems. Someone who is really working for the Big Companies and so on. He is still being blamed and the anc is being blamed for not transforming the economy. That is why, even if so many people are opposing zuma, they see it well, you are trying to kick him out because he kicked out someone who was very popular in the eyes of the west, and the world bank and so on. But it hasnt helped us. Im struck by this, because i cannot compete with neds distinct record of reporting out there, i was there for one particular event which was a decade ago, when mbeki was effectively dumped at a party candidate. As a party candidate. I have a vivid memory of being at a reception, a diplomatic reception where there was a rather diminished figure, physically ratherfrail, an intellectualfigure in the party. And there was zuma, a powerful presence with great charisma, meeting the diplomats, greeting them. Power was clearly shifting. He had not yet become president , but mbeki had been dropped as a candidate. If you were the anc man, you were effectively going to be the head of state. There was no issue. Is that going to be the case next time . Is it automatic or are we at a Transition Phase where anc and state are no longer inseparable . I think the anc is still very powerful in terms of grassroots support. The opposition is now being headed by black persons, but many people see the opposition. See the opposition as representing white minority. The anc has a big chunk of support, but the only thing were going to start seeing is the Power Struggle within the anc itself between those who want to radicalise things, starting to do with the land issue and economy issues, and those who are not. We expect that when zuma goes, the next person will take all this over, and that is cyril ramaphosa. But that might not happen if what i am telling you, this equation goes on, because he is now. Recent history has evolved. He has crossed over and is very supportive of western business, a very rich man and so on. He is not somebody who still caters for the small people. In both countries, you have an urban elite coming into its own. They are probably getting tired of these Post Colonial debates and the inbred Power Structures and want to find some way of getting away from it and reconciling these divigent factions, and force them into a future State Of Affairs that does not hanker back to the Post Colonial, Post Apartheid struggle, and find a new. And find a new identity. The issue of the colonial Post Colonial, Post Apartheid issues are still very, very powerful for south africa. For kenya, it might be something different. People have started to move forward, but. It now feels like a historical issue. For south africa, the story of liberation has not been told as yet. The people in the ghettos, the people who do not have much, they are still very strong and it will divide their struggles. Will define future struggles. Iagree. It is interesting, there is a perception outside south africa that apartheid was a longtime ago. And that there was reconciliation and we have had three black leaders, but it is not really at all. There are still many axes to grind. When people say, it was so interesting to hear western commentators say, there is a generation that is Post Apartheid that has now come of age. For them these things are the struggles of their elders, but that is not the case. If you see south africa, if there is no racial apartheid, there is an economic apartheid along racial lines. There were indicators of real trouble recently when the local south africans turned on immigrants from nigeria. They really went out there. What it means is that anc or whatever government is Going Forward do not address the issue of lack of access to what everyone else is enjoying, it will be sitting on an explosion, which goes back. I want to move on. That makes the situation even more tragic than kenya. The anc is in internal turmoil, an internalanc members, internal anc members who want to hold onto their positions cannot completely cut zuma off. Activated their confidence, they would have to go back and jockey for their own positions. Economically south africa is in dire straits. I want to mention economics. Europeans are enjoying their holidays. In one of the most striking better grass, a Rubber Dinghy has arrived on the beach near cadiz and people are running from it. This is a representation in one picture of a whole process that has happened before, and is happening in other parts through the middle east. We have talked a lot about libya as a way of people getting into europe. Many are coming from sub saharan africa. Now a route from morocco into spain is active again. How much does this tell us about the continued economic unanswered economical demand from africa . I think it says three things, that there is consistent economic pressure on north africa. If people have a route, they will take it. Thirdly, there isjust more accessibility of information about these types of routes. Even five years ago, the ability to find out things via social media, cheap phone called, voice over ip, about the routes to take, was severely diminished. And now the flow of information is so much clearer, people scratch their heads and say, how do these people know, how do they know where to go when there are no routes or streets signs saying. . It is because information is now free. The routes dont matter. The point is the issue. People coming from africa, it will continue until we start having some economic devolvement. The political stability and so on. We stop these wars in the middle east. Of course europeans do not want us to come, but you are part of those problems. Unless you stop wars and installing dictators, and supporting dictators, we will still come. You close this route, we will find another route. It is about global inequalities, but it is also about politics of the world. How people are creating wars. It is about history as well. And the fact that there are structural inequalities, not entirely attributable to one party or the other, but when you have structural inequality and where people want to make a life, they will find a way. We build so much inflammatory language about this and we pathologise a very simple impulse, which isjust to escape from economic or war insecurity. As all those europeans did when they came to your country of 500 years ago. And help to shape your country. To come back to our favourite tropic, donald trump. Laughter gray your favourite topic. To come back to our favourite tropic, donald trump. Laughter your favourite topic. I think you have a bit of an obsession. The central political and economic truth of our age without being over the top, is that these things are not going to stop and that you can build walls and promise that the Coal Industry will start all over again, you can tell people that it is muslims or mexicans rather than microchips thats taking yourjobs. You europeans came to our places, we will come to you. You are everywhere. When we come here, you start saying, oh, stop it that will solve your problem. That does sound a reasonable point to make. Two years ago we had this young child dying on the shore, and it created a swell of sympathy for refugees. Now this boat creates another impression altogether. Fear. We have to stop this, we cannot cope with it. We are in the middle of this and. Thank you all as ever for a challenging discussion. Thats all we have time for this week. Do join us next week, same time, same place. Goodbye. Nearly midday and many of you are enjoying a lovely day. It is not all played by any means. Elsewhere, lovely weather to be had. You can see per the cloud is over the past couple of hours. The speckling of cloud over northern parts of Scotla Nd Cloud Over Northern Parts of scotland has enough about it to be producing some showers. The rogue one elsewhere. But there is a lot of dry and fine weather. We will eventually see temperatures somewhere in the south east turning towards 23 or 24. Well into the teens elsewhere. Feeling like august. Sadly this august has misfired on occasions and it will do again on monday, especially over northern and western parts of the british isles. The further east you are, the more likely you are to stay dry. Lot more cloud over eastern parts than today. Still, top temperatures getting or 24. This is bbc news. Im ben brown. The headlines a woman is killed and more than 30 people injured in violence at a far right rally in virginia. The states governor had a clear message for the White Supremacists there. 0ur message is plain and simple. Go home. You are not wanted in this great commonwealth. The chancellor and the International Trade secretary say the government will seek a transition period to help businesses adjust after brexit. 49 people had been killed by floods and landslides in nepal. Learner drivers will be allowed to have lessons on motorways for the first time from next year. Also in the next hour, sir mo farah scales new heights as he waves goodbye to his illustrious track career
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