theresa may, who became britain's prime minister less than a year ago after the country voted to leave the european union, has called a general election — three years earlier than she needed to. in brussels, they said her shock announcement was a twist worthy of hitchcock. the french have experienced quite a few plot twists of their own as the presidential election looms into view. with a crowded field of 11 candidates, a second round is likely. if so, we'll know by the end of sunday which two will go through. with me to discuss britain, france and all the rest, are: alex deane is a conservative commentator, michael goldfarb writes for politico europe, agnes poirier is uk editor of marianne in france, and polly toynbee is a columnist with the guardian. welcome to you all... thanks for being back with us. polly, we will talk a lot about theresa may and why she did it, but one thing all the commentators seem to have started this election campaign in agreement on is that this will see offjeremy corbyn. but he seems to be relishing the job of underdog. why? i think he likes elections. big rallies are his thing, it's what he's best at. it looks to me unlikely that he will leave, even if he's thoroughly thrashed. those around him seem to be saying he's going to stay until we get a rule change, we'll make sure that another corbynite would take after, which would be at party conference in september. this is very internal labour party stuff, but there's every reason to think that even if he is thoroughly crushed, he's going to stay. he may stay, and that was perhaps one of the reasons why theresa may might have wanted this election, to finally lance that boil of an opposition she doesn't like. she has said she wants more authority, she wants a stronger position. but we've seen antiestablishment candidates do rather well in other parts of the world. is she running a risk of the stability she has enjoyed? every election is a risk and we have nearly seven weeks in which events can come up and derail the best of plans, but all things being equal, it looks like there wouldn't be a better time for the prime minister to do this. jeremy corbyn has led the labour party without the confidence of his own mps for some time. he seems to lack credibility in public as a leader. i'm trying to be fair. i think he spoke well at his lunch. but it's too late to turn around the general lack of confidence in him, notjust in the party but in the country at large. is it a case of having him for another three years? i think polly is right, i think you'll stay. jeremy corbyn is not going to suddenly be anything different. the real reason she called it is that this is her peak moment. she will never be as popular or successful as she is now. she's going into the most difficult negotiations. we don't even know who is sitting on the other side of the table, depending on the elections in france and germany. she's probably go into head—on confrontation with other people in europe and her own backbenchers. whatever compromise she makes, she will be trounced, so nothing will ever be so good for her again. so that election in 2020 would have been much harder to win. indeed, she would have come back is probably a rotten deal or at least half the population would think it was a rotten deal, whatever it was. michael, you're reporting with the people who don't know britain. hwo are you explaining it? there are two things. i have this image of someone saying to the stockbroker, when the price gets to such and such, sell. we got to a certain point in opinion polls and she said "go!" just a few hours after the announcement was made, the financial times is running comment about how clever this was, because on both sides, the idea of negotiating something that is realistic, both from a european perspective and a british perspective, on britain's detachment from the european union in two years is virtually impossible. what she has essentially done is bought herself and the eu an extra few years to figure out how to untangle britain's relationship. in that respect, she may have been taking soundings from people in brussels, that one way of extending this negotiation, and moving that hard deadline of 2019, because we know that in europe, all deadlines are made to be pushed further along. this may well have played into her decision as well. it's surprising she didn't call for an election before, for instance, after the astounding victory at the by—election. so it all makes sense, she is buying more time. she has a boulevard in front of her, as we say french. of course, the lib dems are probably going to win a few seats and labour is going to be crushed. the snp cannot do better apart from one more seat. and of course, she only had the mandate of 200 mps before now. for brussels, is better to have a stronger british prime minister, otherwise you don't know. and then also, within her own party, she is often been taken hostage by hard brexiteers. now if she can say, you shut up, i have a mandate. whatever she may have said publicly and we have just take everything she says on her merits. she said seven times she wasn't going to have an election and then she changed her mind. we can't take anything she says at face value after that. whatever she may have said publicly and we have just take everything but in terms of one of the things you didn't talk about, about the difficulty of selling the brexit deal in her own party, is that part of the calculation? i think like any prime minister who wasn't elected at a general election, she felt that lack of authority. there are times when it's dangerous not to have an election, as gordon brown showed. the other thing about her position is not only that she'll get that sort of mandate, but also in the brexit negotiations, she will be able to see, not only now has been a referendum and a vote in the house of commons and the house of lords, but also a popular general election. it does improve her hand in the negotiations. that's only if she spells out what her negotiating position is and what her red lines are. what's really disgraceful is, we have talked about these tactics, gordon brown made a mistake and she's not going to make this a mistake. the real genuine politics are that we need an election when she comes home with the deal, with the people can genuinely decide whether they like the deal or whether they think it's a mistake. this is meaningless. there is nothing new. that is nothing new of content to be decided in any manifesto. we really need one when she has done the deal. this conversation reflects that the biggest danger for the prime minister is expected management, because unless she does extraordinarily well, then corporate will be seen to have extraordinarily well, then corbyn will be seen to have done better than expected. which will give him the space to carry on. you are managing our expectations. i slightly disagree with polly about putting in the manifesto what her negotiating positions are. it's actually too early. she doesn't have positions. i do think that having the election is not a bad thing. firstly because i did think... ithink... i thought gordon brown actually did make a mistake. even if he had lost, you have to stand up and show the courage. i disagree with all of you on the manifesto point. if she doesn't put pledges in the manifesto, then she runs into a very difficult position. what could she put in? her red lines. my point is, in the absence of that material in the manifesto, then the house of lords, which will be firmly in favourof remain, they will be entitled to say to her, your mandate at the election like this point, so we your mandate at the election lacked this point, so we are entitled to push back. in terms of the practicalities of this, let's say theresa may wins a general election. how great a risk is it for her that people say, that was pointless. and also that she has created a bit of space forjeremy corbyn, maybe helped to revive the lib dems, who were anti—brexit party, who will be not make it easier for her. meanwhile, there are those pesky people in the house of lords. could it not be her own party that says, actually, we haven't gained very much. it's a foregone conclusion she's going to win, a question of how much of a majority she gets. it may be that corbyn makes some progress on being the outsider. the antiestablishment figure. and maybe that gets a bit of a ground swell, meanwhile lib dems pick up quite a bit of what they've lost last time and were all back to where we were. when alan johnson stands down, and for many labour supporters, he represented a missed opportunity, a leader who should've been. i think we don't play in this discussion so far what will happen in the labour party. let's assume that because of the way the system works, there are still 150 labour mps, is that a reasonable assumption? yes. withjeremy corbyn, we hear the talk of purges, and i think the centre—left will have to have a huge discussion among themselves about where they put their faith in the future. this is never going to happen. we're not talking about tony blair. he said only one of the centre—left plan, which is to create a movement across political party movement, which would change things. i've been there! this feels like 1981 all over again. winners, all those people out there got bored at the time, the centre—left broke away from the far left. we have an electoral system that absolutely crushes any new arrival. look at ukip getting 15% and no mps. we have an outrageous electoral system that does not allow innovation. if all the labour mps are againstjeremy corbyn, or the majority, why don't they create something? because they wouldn't get elected again. we did it last time. they have to then fight in each seat, a labour candidate. that splits the vote. in the short—term, it would be good for the conservative party. i agree with your synopsis. the first is that many mps who are not household names to viewers, but westminster people know about the moderate supporters, the welterweights, are all disappearing. it makes it much harder. an awful lot want to go and has been a huge pressures inside the party to stop them. lows of people, particularly the older ones, have been stopped quite cross with certain people like fiona mctaggart and alan johnson going. we could have just hung on, they could always have a by—election later. the snap election has protected some of the positions of the remaining moderates who don't face reselection. and because boundary changes are being planned. luckily there is a generational shift. in terms of the other aspect we've spoken about, one is the question of the liberal democrats, because the lib dems were in parliamentary terms all but annihilated in the last general election. is this going to give them potential for regeneration? it definitely does. one of the outcomes was the near destruction of the liberal democrats. i think one of the accidents of this election is will be the revival of the lib dems. not necessarily because people have huge vegan tim farrell, but because the centre—left belief in jeremy corbyn is so low, this would else will vote go. there's also a bit of a remainer move on for the lib dems, and that's because jeremy corbyn was never very convinced about remain. are a lot of soft or is all over all of the seats as well as getting back the tactical votes, places like richmond and sussex, where labour voters labour votes to the lib dems are the well again. there is a lot more of a soft tory vote, where when the election campaign goes on and receive the relentless nature of it, they may decide they are remain first and tory second. it'll be better than they had, but it's not good to be huge. the impact will be about those who switch from labour to the conservatives. anf ro the uk as a whole, northern ireland, there's the debate over the border with the republic of ireland and the snp are desperately wanting another referendum. is this election going to create extra problems for british governments? this will be the great crack. this will be the time when they say, theresa may, helped by david cameron's appalling judgment on the referendum, cracked apart the united kingdom. i think it will be all over. i think the scots will be gone after the next referendum or the one after that. i think what happens in northern ireland, it's very frightening about weather we go back to the bad old times. it's been quite cavalier of the entire brexit campaign not to consider the united kingdom. i'm far more optimistic. i don't think we will have a referendum in scotland, but if we do, it will be lost. in northern ireland, i think a solution gets arrived that fairly quickly. we have had trouble agreement with them for well over 100 years. i think the big injustice is the mainstream parties don't stand there. michael, last word on the impact on the uk. i am genuinely sceptical about whether a second referendum would win, but then again, it's seven years down the line and we don't know where their brexit negotiations will be. we don't even know what europe will look like! but the contemporary conservative party really does take scotland for granted and that's one of the reasons it took gordon brown to pull david cameron's chestnuts out of the fire on the first referendum. i would worry it hasn't learned its lesson and that is a real worry that scotland will go. the gunman who shot dead a police officer in paris on thursday night may or may not have grasped the full symbolism of his murderous act. the champs—elysees, in sight of the arc de triomphe, is one of france's best known locations, making this a provocative challenge to the french sense of identity. the question is whether what francois hollande says is "likely to be terrorism" will affect who the french choose to succeed him as president. agnes, did the reactions of the leading presidential candidates reveal much about this election? of course, the irony is that the attack happened at the same time during a television debate, when it was more like speed dating, because it was not a debate. there were two debates. they had 15 minutes each, the 11 candidates, to make a last case. but a manual macron was the first to break that live and the use, they we re break that live and the use, they were supposed to bring an object to the debate. he said i will not do that. show and tell at school. and he started talking about it and then of course all of the other candidates started talking about it. marine le pen was extremely vocal, as she always is on every subject, obviously on radical islamism. the thing is, the french have grown accustomed to those attacks. the last few ones— there was the louvre, there was the 0rly airport, now they are army officers or police officers. so i think the impact will be limited on sunday's first round. limited — i'm not saying there will be no impact. and perhaps on the undecided, because a third of french voters are still undecided. perhaps because they don't believe in the polls anymore. the polls say the first four are extremely close to each other. i still think marine le pen will face off macron. but in all probabilities, there are six possible scenarios. six?! yes. we should talk about the most frightening one, which is the hard left candidates, the sort of uber corbyn. he attends some of his rallies as a hologram. yes, in six different locations! narendra modi started the whole thing. and everyone in turkey, so we should be worried! marine le pen versus melenchon —i don't even want to before sunday 8pm. the attack may have something of an impact, but not on marine le pen. those voting for her were going to vote for her anyway. i think it helps fillon, because of his gravitas. he has dealt with so many things. people may think he's a crook, but they cure —— care about national security. he denies that of course. of course. that's what the electorate might say, because this is a serious time and calls for people with experience. i think it harms the exciting youthful vote for the newcomer. en marche! is the loser of recent events, i think. i wasjust going to say, i saw a very interesting survey today, and i'm not big on data journalism, but this was interesting, in le figaro — six out of ten french voters have changed their mind since the start of the year. usually, everyone knows about this election and everyone has made the mind up a year go, but 60% of the electorate has been changing its mind. they had no idea. that's as a result of good choices on both the right and the left. it's interesting that they are really, for once, a genuine rainbow spectrum. you can see why people would ship with the left. -- shift. my own view is it's far too close to call, it's all within the margin of error for those top few. i think we had better live in fear and terror. we have seen worse happening too often, we've seen the unexpected brexit vote, the appalling trump vote so let's imagine the worst and thank our lucky stars if it doesn't happen. for you, the worse with villa marine —— le pen. well, mellor shone too. you're already jumping to the second round. we don't have time for that! what it tells us about the state of french politics, and i right in saying that in no previous election, if this comes to pass on the second round, would there be a situation where neither of the political grouping that have dominated french politics since charles de gaulle, would that be a first? yes, it would be a first. what is a first actually is the collapse of the socialist party. because i doubt hamon, a 49—year—old jeremy corbyn. we have two corbyns in france — hamon and melenchon. i think he's going to score below 10%, which couldn't happen in many memories. when talking about similar figures forjeremy corbyn, since 1980 or 1935, the same in france. so the hard left melenchon candidate enjoys that dynamic of the collapse of the socialist party. i'm baffled. but let me ask you something. what really matters for those outside france, around the world but particularly in europe, is does it mean for europe? we're going to be negotiating position but what with? if it's melenchon or marine le pen, this will effectively undermine europe completely. it will then scarcely exist in the way that we know it. how do we think about that? if it is melenchon or marine le pen, we will forget about brexit. do you mean there will be nothing to live? —— live. we don't know what will happen. 0r me, one of the big things is how badly francois hollande has led his party. he's been unwilling to leave the stage early enough to let them be credible. ifjeremy corbyn had left the stage early enough, the labour party could have rebuilt. there's probably no more important than no and there is a terrible legacy to look up. he couldn't made it clear he wasn't going to be the candidate early. but he couldn't have quit during his presidency. yes, there could have been a much stronger candidate than hamon, that's for sure. he's more or less faded away, is what the opinion polls are saying. that is what they were saying before the end of pre—election polling. the future then is the second round. is it going to be a clear—cut enough result or will we still have people saying it was only one or 2% that even decided? the turnout will be important at the second round. we know at midday, how much participation we have. if it's historically low, then marine le pen stands a lot of chances, because if it is melenchon or le pen, some people will not bother go voting. evenif even if it's beyond, le pen, people will think... when even if it's beyond, le pen, people will think. .. when jacques chirac was in the last one, people went to the left. to go and vote for him in order to keep the pen out of it. that's a different story though. she isa that's a different story though. she is a much better politician. we will talk about this again after the first round is after. that's it for dateline london for this week — we're back next week at the same time. you can of course comment on the programme on twitter @bbcshaunley. hello there. we've got a bit of a taste of winter for the new working week. the cold front is going south across the uk introducing colder conditions. so, through the week ahead, a chance of seeing wintry showers. gardeners, take note, also some frosty nights over the next few nights too. we are already seeing colder conditions moving in across scotland with sleet and snow showers, mostly over the high ground, but some wintry precipitation getting down to lower levels. further south across the uk, we've got quite a lot of cloud. a few outbreaks of rain. but still into the milder air. looking at the weather for monday morning. 8am, largely dry in southern counties. some sunshine in the south coast towards london. so, a relatively fine start to the day. heading our way further north, one or two patchy showers coming out of the cloud and the bulk of england and wales. heavy rain in northern england and northern ireland first thing as well. that is the weather front going south. but to the north of that, sunshine and wintry showers blowing in on that brisk northerly wind across scotland. it will be wintry across the north of scotland. there could be accumulations of snow in the higher ground of scotland. sleet mixed in even at lower levels and hail is possible. further south across the uk, cloudy with outbreaks of rain on that frontal system. some reaching the london region later on. temperatures still around 14—15 degrees. further north, struggling, at best, 7—9. still mild in the far south late on monday. getting cleared away and pushed away by the frontal system. that opens the door for cold air to work across all of the country into tuesday. northerly arrows showing that bitterly cold wind. across scotland once again on tuesday, further sleet and snow showers. down the east coast of england, also some showers here. some working further inland. mostly falling as rain on lower levels. but there will be some sleet and snow mixed in. some sunshine and dry conditions across much of southern and south—western england. but temperatures at best around 7—1! on tuesday. a similar day on wednesday. sunshine and scattered showers. a bit of a wintry flavour to some of these showers over the high ground in particular. and again, those temperatures will struggle. just seven degrees in aberdeen. 12 in london. the latter part of the week, gradually things will start to turn a little bit milder and showers should ease in most areas. that's how it's looking. have a good week. hello. my name is tom donkin, a very warm welcome to bbc news. broadcasting to our viewers in north america and around the globe. here are our top stories: in the french presidential election, the centrist emmanuel macron tops the poll and goes through to the second round. translation: i want to become the president of all the people of france. the president of the patriots in the face of the threat from the nationalists. he'll face marine le pen of the anti—immigration national front — who described the first round result as historic. translation: the time has come to get rid of all the arrogant people who wanted to dictate to the population what they should do. i am the candidate for the people. ahead of the uk general election — confusion over the 0pposition‘s stance on renewing britain's nuclear deterrent.

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