Transcripts For BBCNEWS Dateline London 20170227

To dateline london. The state were in is there a vacuum at the heart of British Politics . How far does the future of the European Union rest on the next president of france . And the fight against the Group Calling itself islamic state. Who will be doing the fighting . My guests today are agnes poirier, who is uk editor of frances marianne, Stryker Mcguire of bloomberg markets, mina al oraibi, the arab affairs commentator, and ned temko, who is an author and journalist. The tradition in britain is for Opposition Parties to do well in by elections since they can often be used as a protest vote against the sitting government. This week, the conservatives actually won a seat in copeland held by labour for several generations, 33. hes; 257 2542 capital stoke. As we move towards brexit, we clearly have a government. Do we have anything which looks like an opposition . Perhaps the Scottish National party . Yes, perhaps the unelected house of lords. The short answer, do we have an opposition in the House Of Commons . Absolutely not. You mentioned by elections. Opposition parties have work hard to lose a by election against a sitting government. The last time it happened once in the early 1980s, but labour was splitting at the time. The last time it went so far to the left that it became serially unelectable, but the last real loss by an Opposition Party was in the 1960s. And the last time labour lost that particular seat was in the 19305, so its a huge deal. Its hard to see howJeremy Corbyn, the labour party leader, can recover, not so much just from the by election but from the fact that clearly the opinion polls, by elections and everything shows, that a Critical Mass of even labour voters dont see him as prime ministerial, and thats difficult. And yet the reaction has been that they lost but it could have been lost, and steady as she goes, its all fine. Whats interesting is that labour has its own opposition and the reason we had this by election is that you had two front benchers resigning. Its interesting because we are seeing this serious opposition to Jeremy Corbyn and yet theres real denial amongst those who support him and say he can carry on. Of course, we have ukip and Lib Dems Vying for who is the third party and still third parties here dont impact the big picture politics. But we are seeing the competition between them who are getting a smaller size of the electorate but they are clearly defined and we know what they stand for. We know what ukip stands for and what the lib dems stand for. Interestingly, both are very much focused on brexit and the eu. One completely for it and one completely against it. Clear in both cases. Absolutely. But for the conservatives and labour, it is a constituency that was labour for 80 odd years because people felt the mp could look out for them in an area that ordinarily labour looks out for them. So what is the defining feature of both parties . Its hard to see at the moment. The lib dems and ukip are ideologically opposed but there are also differences elsewhere. The lib dems are gaining support. Anecdotally you hear it a lot largely because of whats going on. Ukip is in serious trouble, really serious trouble. I mean, really serious trouble. Paul nuttall, their leader, fought a pretty Disastrous Campaign in a seat he clearly thought they should win and so did Party Workers because they put in a lot of effort but the party was shambolic. It must have been Cringe Making to have been around him when all this was going oii. It was appalling. Hes another leader who presumably will survive just because theyve had such trouble finding a successor to nigel farage. Maybe he and Jeremy Corbyn could swap . Where do you see this . You could say the conservatives have their opposition within their own ranks also, although it is more quiet and subtle than it has been in the labour party. As we say in france, theresa may has a boulevard in front of her, no opposition. When you listen to her, she is now the workers party. She said this weekend we are the party of the workers. But you dont believe her and actually copland is on that level. It is the Nuclear Industry that did it, to her credit. But that is also happening in france because theres no opposition. The french left is in disarray in the same way as it is here. Not to mention the american left. Some things must or something had to give and that is the rise of the centrist party, the split of labour and the Socialist Party in france. Something win happen because It Cannot Go On like this. The reason she has a boulevard now is that she can go on sometimes inanely saying brexit means brexit because it hasnt happened yet. The other issue that has yet to drop is what happens when article 50 is triggered, when some of the real life effects begin to take hold . That is when, particularly inside the tory party, it will be worth watching. You need somebody to take advantage of that, dont you . You do and she may start considering an early election now because the momentum that she has at the moment, she wont keep when article 50 is triggered, we assume. So nows the time to consider calling an early election. When could you ever say that a conservative prime ministers popularity grows the further north you go until you reach scotland . That is remarkable. Copeland is the north and labour and the north. But do you think that, into this vacuum, tony blair could come back . David miliband for labour . Good question because, of course, because tony blair is the man that the british love to hate, but he was the only sensical voice. That was a week ago when he talked about europe. Not everybody thinks that, i should say. Even people who hate him could think, i agree with every word. He made the broader argument that it isntjust about brexit. In other words, we see trump and brexit and he was arguing for a reconstitution of the centre left or Centre Right Coalition that could steer a reasonable path. For example, David Miliband. Someone who has been in British Politics, but he was associated with or tarnished by the tony blair years, and thats the challenge. We know the stories about his brother. He was part of the tony blair thing. And thats never going to go away but the memories will become more fuzzy. It will become an asset at some point, im sure of that. He was a relatively independent memberof new labour in that he started as a Policy Adviser and he always had a mind of his own. The question is, does he have the real ambition required, because at keyjunctures during the mess that was gordon brown versus tony blair, there was an opportunity and even an expectation on some on the blair side of the party that David Miliband would seize the crown. He always didnt quite want to do it. I think he has a certain sense of decency, actually. Hes not cut throat enough. He really extracted himself out of that whole rivalry with his brother and so forth and theres a reason hes never ruled it out. I spoke with him a few months ago briefly and asked if he would come back. He said, the time is not really right, but you never know. Yesterday he said, never say never. But the thing is, several times hes had an opportunity to go for it, and he hasnt. So the question is, has he acquired the sort of backbone that you need to really push it to the next level . Especially since the party is in much worse shape than when he ran for leader. Since france and germany have together been the motors of the European Union, elections in both countries this year will define the future of the eu at its most difficult period, with britain obviously determined to leave. If, in france, Marine Le Pen wins, is the euro, and possibly the eu, finished . If she wins, she will have a vote on the euro. She wont win. I was trying to get beyond that. I might have to eat my words in may, but we have two rounds, ok . Thats the big difference with the brexit vote. She will come first in the first round and then she will most probably lose at the second round. Opposite Emmanuel Macron or opposite fillon. Ok, she has the slightest chance of becoming the next president of france if the turnout is really low, which would be historic because its always high. If it is Francois Fillon against Marine Le Pen, because he is so damaged, and people dont bother to go and vote, she has some chance. I wonder whether one. I know we are not allowed to mention. The president of the United States. We took a vow not to mention him. But i wonder whether the You Know Who Effect Will Galvanise French voters to realise, do we want that or the equivalent . And whether turnout will be larger. Can i suggest shes had quite a good week, hasnt she . This headscarf business. You couldnt i mean you couldnt appealing to the kind of electoriate she wishes to appeal to, she couldnt have asked for Something Better in secular france. Thats correct, its incredible though, because she also has financial scandals at her door, with exactly the same allegations, you know, from brussels, the way she uses her budget to actually hire people, and its been quite dodgy and brussels is Launching Enquiries against her. What you make of that . In terms of her electorate, she did a cleverjob in refusing to wear a headscarf. Absolutely and you feel for the lebanese. Whoever is president of france, they have to work with her so they had to receive her although it was complicated for muslim lebanese local factions. But regardless what happens in the election, if she doesnt win in france, then the eu is safe . That has huge problems. Even if she doesnt get in, the eu will not be able to pull out from this as we have the greek crisis, we have real troubles in italy, and we dont know what will happen with issues against immigration. Germany . Although of course, the election of the new president gave many people some hope of the sort of stature coming in as president and the stature of the germans at the moment. It looks good but we will have to wait and see. How are the leaders of europe working together to face off what brexit will mean for the union when they are also busy with their domestic elections . Theres yet another layer to it, because you now have the external factors of whats happening in the United States and russia, which are really causing the eu, that old spirit that created the eu in the first place. Wed better be in this together. Its really hard to imagine the eu falling apart. Its not hard to imagine the euro falling apart, is it . To go back to your question, lets imagine Marine Le Pen becomes frances next president. She is very astute because shes not going to hold a referendum about belonging to the European Union, because the french feel too much european to vote, to go for that. But what she will do is a referendum on the euro, and shes likely to win it. Its very unpopular in france . Unpopular enough to tilt it to 51 . That would be the end. If it was on the euro in a number of European Countries with greece being a possible example, germany, who knows . Its a false referendum because it is a kind of brexit referendum in the sense that if you have widespread discontent and people can think they can blame economic malaise on the euro and that will fix it, then of course they will vote against it. Then you have to have politicians brave enough to say that, but thats rare. Where does this Leave Britain . You could say that, in voting for brexit, the british have decided they will, at some point and whatever the difficulties ahead, leave a union which is failing and which many of the ordinary citizens know its failing, even in countries very strongly in favour of the eu . Its a complicated because to the extent the eu does fail, and i agree that one of the ironies is there are now forces that are bringing it closer together again, one of the reasons will be brexit. In other words, this big Building Block that is british membership, theyre going to yank out. And thats an obvious challenge to the eu as an organisation. Its a self fulfilling prophecy, in a way. The irony i still cant get over is that even though the remain campaign was lousy at getting the point across, britain, of allthe eu member states, had a charmed existence as it wasnt a member of the euro and opted out of everything it didnt like, had a beneficial trading realtionship with this bloc. Had a beneficial trading relationship with this bloc. Its not an encouragement to those who think brexit is a mistake, but its easy to see a scenario where both sides suffer equally. After past humiliations at the hands of the group called islamic state, Iraqi Government forces have begun to reverse the tide in mosul and elsewhere. While in syria, is is squeezed between Government Forces and kurdish militias. How much support should the United States, britain and others give, and to whom . In iraq, the iraqi army has been retrained and seems to have a new spirit. Its also important to remember that when mosul fell to isis, it was because Army Generals were given the order to withdraw. There is a myth now that the army was in disarray, theyve retrained, and two and a half years later, theyve come back. Yes, there has been training and effort but at the heart of it is the political decision. The political decision to leave mosul to isis broke something significant in iraq. The loss and huge humanitarian suffering. The mosaic in terms of different ethnicities and religions who live together well, at the moment that will need to be reconstructed. The iraqi army going back is our hope and an opportunity to try to rebuild that and having belief in the iraqi state. Having said that, on their heels are some of the Mobilisation Units which are the volunteer forces that were put together to fight isis who are sectarian in large part, but not all of them. How iraq will figure out dealing with all of these groups when isis is defeated is hugely significant because if we have groups who are armed who some want to turn into political parties, like hezbollah in lebanon, then that could spell a disastrous period for iraq going forward. Then you have the Coalition Led by the United States with support from some arab countries and britain and thats significant because then we have to say, ideologically, fighting isis, but iran is saying, we are part of the coalition. In reality, they support some of the sectarian groups that leads to this complication. The point i am trying to make is, lets not take it so clear that isis is bad and everyone else is good. Unfortunately, there are those in power in washington and other places who think it could be pushed that much. However, part of the Trump Administration is well aware of this and if there is any. Including the new National Security adviser, who is very smart. They know iraq inherently well. Syria is different. The fact that iraq has used its air force to strike inside of syria is a huge development. Baghdad, moscow, teheran, damascus together came and agreed on that strike. I agree with her i know you do. The point for those of us outside is, however it is dressed up, by some political leaders on different sides of the atlantic, there are no good guys and bad guys. In syria what we are seeing is that you now have alqaeda related groups pushing out some of the so called moderate opposition, and i will make one prediction here. The person we cant talk about, yesterday, President Trump i think said that the American Military was going to obliterate isis. I do predict he will claim to have obliterated isis, but its no easier than it was six months ago. In some ways, its more complicated because it requires an engagement that he is very wary of. Luckily, as you say, people like the new National Security adviser not only has knowledge of The Middle East but has a nuanced knowledge of it, so its interesting that he, unlike trump, says, dont refer to islamic terrorism. Separate those. It was an interesting point. The kurds are doing a lot of fighting, so give guns to the kurds . Hold on, turkey is a nato ally and doesnt like it, and losing ground, but you hear about them using drones and making a lot of casualties on the ground. Also, at the same time, you know they are going to concentrate their intelligence in spreading terror in europe. This is what they are very good at doing. It doesnt take many people to be able to cause a great deal of damage, as we know in france. And in belgium, some vulnerabilities exist with fighters who have dual nationality, for existence. Recently there were those centres, and you have them in the uk, of de radicalisation. In france, there were reports it didnt work. War is also in the mind. You cant declare victory on that. The idea that anything could happen quickly is out of the question. There is no short term. You just take iraq, and youve had the iran iraq war. You had the revolution. You had that war and the first gulf war, the invasion in 2003. Now its 2017. This is not going to be solved overnight. The first gulf war was in 1991. Exactly. Its a generation. And you have two generations there. There are 140,000 Children Inside Mosul and in western mosul they are under siege. The idea that no food or medical substance is coming in. Unless they are given something to look forward to and they feel the world has looked out for them, what impact will it have on these people . Because of the risks from iran as seen in saudi arabia and elsewhere, there is a new diplomacy going on and its interesting. Donald trump has reflected that, in some ways. Very significantly, the Saudi Foreign minister visited baghdad, and that development is of huge consequences for intra arab relations, but there have been some developments. With the new lebanese government and the fact the lebanese president who is seen as an ally of iran is seen in all the arab capitals. There are overtures to try to bring back some arab countries who felt that iran was a better partner and theyre trying to change that. Because the other iraq was a bulwark against iran is how it was seen in many countries. And over a Million People died in the iran iraq war. Iran always paid the highest price. Benjamin netanyahu is a player, too . He would like to be. I think he overstates, as does trump, the likelihood that any Arab Coalition or saudi government is going to meaningfully invite israel or the us into this kind of Grand Coalition if there is no at least attempt at progress to rein in settlements, get some sort of political resolution in the Israeli Palestinian issue. Thats still a toxic issue. The sophistication of them was interesting. Yes, and what you dont know is, the dynamics of the Executive Branch of government are crazy. You dont know from day to day who is really running things and how its being run. Yes, there are some smart people, some supposedly strong people who have not been politically deeply tied to trump, like tillerson, the secretary of state. This reminds me so much of back in 2002 and 2003, the State Department seems to be totally sidelined. Thats it, im afraid. An almost trump free zone today you can comment on the programme on twitter and engage with our guests. We will be back next week at the same time. Make a date with dateline london. Goodbye. Hello, good morning. The weekend brought us some wet and windy weather, but at least it was on the mild side. That on the mild side. Area of low pressure now runs towards that area of low pressure now runs towards the north of scotland and out of the way for a while could return as a weaker area of low pressure on tuesday. What we see in the wake of that storm is much colder air coming the wake of that storm is much colderaircoming in the wake of that storm is much colder air coming in across the uk ringing with it the risk of frost and some snow. There could be some snow around overnight. Especially across the Northern Hills in the northern half of the uk is likely to have a icy patches with temperatures close to freezing. Temperatures south and heavy rain clears ge gangs of them , engarm f e,ngi;;rla do 7 fe siiffl do b be eng . . . sleet be surerised if there 5; gale, glee ~. ~ ~ a little snow in there as well. And a little snow in there as well. The best of the weather will northern 2 35 5 northern effe fi llf northern 7 e5; 3 . Li} the i weii be and suit . Will be and sunny but wind will be lighter and sunny but will matter where you when; ygu have strgng mom showers overnight. Wintry showers going in overnight. The risk of ice will be looking more widespread in Tuesday Morning because temperatures will be low overnight. Many places are not far away from freezing. This area of low pressure, this is what is left of storm ewan, coming back as promised. Thats over the irish season into the Western Parts of england and wales. It brings outbreaks of rain and snow, particularly over the hills in scotland. Another cold day with temperatures reaching eight or nine degrees if you are lucky. As the wind drops again, you may get some frost and icy patches on wednesday morning but a dry and bright start for many. From the south west, from the atlantic we will see Cloud And Rain Moving in. At least that will start to lift the temperature a little. For the first few days of this week it really will feel cold, especially in the wind and there will be wintry showers around as well. Possibly not quite so around as well. Possibly not quite so cold later in the week but there will be some rain, particularly in the south