it's a huge deal. it's hard to see howjeremy corbyn, the labour party leader, can recover, not so much just from the by—election but from the fact that clearly the opinion polls, by—elections and everything shows, that a critical mass of even labour voters don't see him as my ministerial and that's difficult. and yet the reaction has been that they lost but it could have been lost and steady as she goes. what interesting is that labour has its owfi interesting is that labour has its own opposition and the reason we had this by—election is that you had to front bench is resigning. it's interesting because we are seeing this serious opposition to jeremy corbyn and yet there's real denial amongst those who support him and say he can carry on. of course, we have you — — say he can carry on. of course, we have you —— ukip and lib dem vying for who is the third party and still third parties here don't impact the big picture politics. but we are seeing the competition between them who are getting a smaller size of the electorate but they are clearly defined and we know what they stand for. interestingly, both are very much focused on brexit and the eu. one completely for eight and one com pletely one completely for eight and one completely against it. absolutely. but for the conservatives and labour, it is a constituency that was labour for 80 odd years because the —— people felt the mp could look out for them in an area that ordinarily labour looks out for them. what is the defining peak —— of each other parties? it's hard say. the lib dems and ukip are ideological your post but there are also differences elsewhere. the lib dems are gaining support. anecdotally you hear it a lot largely because of what's going on. party— macro is in largely because of what's going on. party—macro is in serious trouble, really serious trouble. paul nuttall, their leader, fought a pretty disastrous campaign in a seat he clearly thought they should win and so did party workers because they put in a lot of effort but the party was shambolic. it must have been cringe—making to have been around him when all this was going oi'i. around him when all this was going on. it was appalling. here's another leader who presumably will survive just because they've had such trouble finding a successor. maybe he andjeremy trouble finding a successor. maybe he and jeremy corbyn could swap? where do you see this? you could say the conservatives have their opposition within their own ranks also although it is more quiet and su btle also although it is more quiet and subtle than it has been in the labour party. theresa may has a boulevard in front of her, no opposition. when you listen to her she is now the workers party. she said this weekend we are the party of the workers. but you tend to leave her and that is to her credit on that level. it is the nuclear industry that did it to her credit. but that is also happening in france because there's no opposition. the french left is in disarray in the same way as it is here. not to mention the american left. some things must or something had to give and that is the rise of the centrist party, the split of labour and the socialist party in france. something win happen because it cannot go on like this. the reason she has a boulevard now is that she can go on sometimes in a new thing brexit means brexit because it hasn't happened yet. the other issue that has yet to drop is what happens when article 50 is triggered, when some of the real—life effects begin to ta ke of the real—life effects begin to take hold ? of the real—life effects begin to take hold? that is when, particularly inside the tory party, it will be worth watching. you need somebody to take advantage of that, don't you? you do and she may start considering an early election now because the momentum that she has at the moment she won't keep when article 50 is triggered, we assume. so now vs keep when article 50 is triggered, we assume. so now ‘s the time to consider calling an early election. when could you ever say that a conservative prime minister's popularity rose a further north you go until you reach scotland? that is remarkable. copeland is the north and labourand remarkable. copeland is the north and labour and the north... but do you think that, into this vacuum, tony blair could come back? david miliband? a good question because, of course, tony blair is the man that the british love to hate but he was the only sense voice. that was a week ago when he talked about europe. not everybody thinks that, i should say. even people who hate him could thing, i agree with every word. he made the broader argument that it isn'tjust about brexit. in other words, we see trap and brexit and he was arguing for a reconstitution of the centre—left or centre—right coalition —— trump. it could steal it a reasonable path. for example, david miliband. someone who has been in british politics, but he was associated with or tarnished by the tony blair years and that's the challenge. he was pa rt and that's the challenge. he was part of the tony blair thing. and that's never going to go away but the memories will become more fuzzy. it will become an asset at some point, i'm sure of that. he was a relatively independent member of new labour in that he started as a policy adviser and he always had a mind of its own. the question is, does he have the real ambition because that keep junctures does he have the real ambition because that keepjunctures during the mess that was gordon brown —— gordon brown versus tony blair, there was an opportunity and even an expectation on some on the blair side of the party that david miliband would seize the crown. he always didn't quite want to do it. miliband would seize the crown. he always didn't quite want to do it! certain sense of decency actually. he's not cut—throat enough. he really extracted himself out of that hole rivalry with his brother and so forth and there's a reason he's never ruled it out. i spoke with him a few months ago briefly and asked if he would come back. he said, the time is not really right but you never know. yesterday he said never say never. but the thing is, several times he's had an opportunity to go for it and he hasn't. so the question is, has he acquired the sort of backbone that you need to really push it to the next level? especially since the party is in much worse shape than when he ran for leader. since... since france and germany have together been the motors of the european union, elections in both countries this year will define the future of the eu at its most difficult period, with britain determined to leave. if, in france, marine lepen wins, is the euro and possibly the eu, finished? if she wins she will have a vote on the euro. she won't win. i was trying to get beyond that.|j the euro. she won't win. i was trying to get beyond that. i might have to eat my words in may, but we have to eat my words in may, but we have two rounds, ok? that's the big difference with the brexit vote. she will come first in the first round and then she will most probably lose at the second round. opposite emmanuel macron or opposite film macro. ok, she has the slightest chance of becoming the next president of france if the turnout is really low —— or francois fillon. if it is francois fillon against marine le pen row, because he is so damaged, and people don't vote —— don't bother to go and vote she has some chance. i know we are not allowed to mention... the president of the united states. we took a vow not to mention him. but i wonder whether the you know who effect will galvanise french voters to realise, do we want that or the equivalent? and whether turnout will be affected? she's had quite a good week, hasn't she? this headscarf business... appealing to the kind of electric she wishes to appeal to, she couldn't have asked for something better in secular france. that's correct, it's incredible though because she also has financial scandals at her door with exactly the same allegations from brussels the way she uses her budget to actually hire people and it's been quite dodgy and brussels is launching enquiries against her. what you mean? in terms of her electorate, she did a cleverjob in refusing to wear a headscarf? absolutely and whoever is president of france they had to work with her survey had to receive her although it was complicated for muslim lebanese local factions. but regardless what happens in the election, if she doesn't win in france than the eu is safe? that has huge problems. even if she doesn't get in, the eu will not be able to pull out from this as we have the greek crisis, we have real troubles in italy and we don't know what will happen with issues against immigration. germany? although of course the election of the new president gave many people some hope of the sort of stature coming in as president and the stature of the germans at the moment. it looks good but we will have to wait and see. how are the leaders of europe working together to face of what brexit will mean for the union when they are also busy with their domestic elections? there's yet another layer to it and cars you now have the external factors of what's happening in the united states and russia which are really causing the eu, that old spirit the eu in —— that created the eu in the first place. it's really hard to imagine the eu falling apart. it's not hard to imagine the euro falling apart, is it? to go back to your question, let's imagine marine le pen becomes france's next president, she is very astute because she's not going to hold a referendum about belonging to the european union because the french deal too much european to vote to go for that. but what she will do is a referendum on the euro and she's likely to win it. it's very unpopular in france? unpopular enough to tilt it to 51%. very unpopular in france? unpopular enough to tilt it to 5196. that would be the end. if it was on the euro in a number of european countries with greece being a possible example...? it's a false referendum because it isa kind it's a false referendum because it is a kind of brexit referendum in the sense that if you have widespread discontent and people can think they can blame economic malaise on the euro and that will fix it, then they will vote against it. but that won't fix it. then you have to have politicians brave enough to say that but that's rare. where does this leave britain? you could say that, in voting for brexit, the british have decided they will, at some point and whatever the difficulties ahead, leave a union which is failing and which many of the ordinary citizens know it's failing even in countries very strongly in favour of the eu. it's a complicated because to the extent the eu does fail, and i agree that one of the ironies is there are no forces that are bringing it closer together again, no forces that are bringing it closertogetheragain, one no forces that are bringing it closer together again, one of the reasons will be brexit. in other words, this big building block that is british membership... and that's an obvious challenge to the eu as an organisation. it's a self—fulfilling prophecy in a way. the irony i still can't get over is that even though the remain campaign was lansing —— lousy at getting the point across, britain, of all the lousy at getting the point across, britain, of allthe eq member states, had a charmed existence as it wasn't a member of the —— europe and opted out of everything it didn't like -- it and opted out of everything it didn't like —— it wasn't a member of the euro. it wasn't an encouragement to those who think brexit is a mistake, but it's easy to see a scenario where both sides suffer equally. after past humiliations at the hands of the group called islamic state, iraqi government forces have begun to reverse the tide in mosul and elsewhere while in syria is is squeezed between government forces and kurdish militias. how much support should the united states, britain and others give and to whom? in iraq, the iraqi army has been retrained and seems to have a new spirit. it's also important to remember that when mosul held to isis it was because army generals we re isis it was because army generals were giving —— given the order to withdraw. there is a myth that the army was in disarray and every change them and two and a half years later they've come back. yes, there has been training and effort but at the heart of it is the political decision. the political decision to leave most sold to isis break something significant in iraq. the loss and huge humanitarian suffering and amused —— the mosaic in terms of different ethnicities and religion who live together well, at the moment that will need to be reconstructed —— religions. the iraqi army going back is our hope and opportunity to try to rebuild that and having belief in the iraqi state. having said that, on those heels are some of the mobilisation units which are the volunteer forces that were put together to fight isis who are sectarian in large part, but not all of them. how iraq will figure out dealing at —— dealing with all of these groups when isis is defeated is hugely significant because if we have groups who are armed who's someone to turn into political parties, like hezbollah in lebanon, then that could spell a disastrous period for iraq going forward. then you have the coalition led by the united states with sub port from some arab countries and britain and that significant because then we had to say, ideological league, with fighting isis but iran is saying we are part of the coalition. in real allergy, they support some of the sectarian groups that leads to this publication. the point i am trying to make is, let's not take it so clear that acronym is bad and everyone else is good. u nfortu nately, bad and everyone else is good. unfortunately, there are those in power in washington and other places who think it could be pushed that much. however, part of thejob administration is well aware of this and if there is any... they know iraq inherently well. syria is different. the fact that iraq has used its f or is to strike inside of syria is a huge development. baghdad, moscow, teheran, damascus together came and agreed on that strike. i agree with her! i know you do. the point for those of us outside is, however it is dressed up by some political leaders on different sides of the atlantic, there are no good guys and bad guys. in syria what we are seeing is that you now have al-qaeda related groups pushing out some of the so—called moderate opposition and i will make one prediction here. the person we can't talk about, yesterday, president trump i think said that the american military was going to obliterate isis. i do predict he will claim to have a better rate it isis, but it's no easier than it was six months ago. in some ways it's more complicated because it requires an engagement that he is very wary of. luckily, as you say, people like the new national security adviser not only has knowledge of the middle east but has a nuanced knowledge of it so it's interesting that he, unlike trump, says don't refer to is lambie terrorism. separate those. unlike trump, says don't refer to is lambie terrorism. separate thosem was an interesting point. the kurds are doing a lot of fighting so give guns to the kurds? hold on, turkey isa guns to the kurds? hold on, turkey is a native ali —— alliant doesn't like it so it's complicated. it is and also it's wonderful to hear about isis losing battles and losing ground, but you hear about them using drones and making a lot of casualties on the ground. also, at the same time, you know they are going to concentrate their intelligence in spreading terror in europe. this is what they are very good at doing. it doesn't take many people to be able to cause a great deal of damage, as we know in fans. and in belgium, some vulnerabilities exist with fighters who have dual nationality, for existence. recently there were those sentence —— centres and you have them in the uk, of day radicalisation. in rome —— in france, there were reports it didn't work. war is also in the mind. you can't declare victory on that. the idea that anything could happen quickly is out of the question. there is no short—term. you just ta ke there is no short—term. you just take iraq and you've had the iran and iraq war. you had the revolution. you had that war and the first gulf war, the invasion in 2003. now it's 2017. this is not going be solved overnight. the first gulf war was in 1919. exactly. and you have two generations there. there are 140,000 children inside mosul and in western mosul they are under siege. the idea that no food or medical substance is coming in... u nless or medical substance is coming in... unless they are given something to look forward to and they feel the world has looked out for them, what impact will it have on these people. because of the risk some iran as seen because of the risk some iran as seenin because of the risk some iran as seen in saudi arabia and elsewhere, there is a new diplomacy going on and it's interesting. donald trump has reflected that in some ways. very significantly, the saudi foreign minister in baghdad, that development is of huge consequences for inter—arab relations but there have been some developments. with the new lebanese government and the fa ct the new lebanese government and the fact the lebanese president who is seen as an fact the lebanese president who is seen as an ally of iran is seen in all the arab capitals. there are overtures to try to bring back some arab countries who felt that iran was a better part —— partner and they're trying to change that. the other iraq was able work against iran is how it was seen in many countries. and over a million people died in the iran/ iraq war. iran a lwa ys died in the iran/ iraq war. iran always paid the highest price. benjamin netanyahu is a player, too? he would like to be. i think he overstates, as does trump, the likelihood that any arab coalition or saudi government is going to meaningfully invite israel or the us into this kind of grand coalition if there is no at least attempt at progress to rein in settlements, get some sort of political resolution in the israeli/ palestinian issue. no arab leader will a bad —— abandon the palestinians, will they? that pa rt the palestinians, will they? that part of american diplomacy has got very interesting this past week. the comments of the national security adviser and the sophistication of them was interesting. yes, and what you don't know is the dynamics of the executive branch have —— are crazy. you don't know from day to day who is really running things and how it's being run. yes, there are some smart people, some supposedly strong people who have not been politically deeply tied to trump, like the secretary of state. this reminds me so much of back in 2002 and 2003, the state department seems to be totally sidelined. that's it i'm afraid. you can comment on the programme on twitter and engage with our guests. we will be back next week at the same time. make a date with dateline london. goodbye. hello. we won't see anything as windy as storm doris but still some blustery conditions around and wet conditions also. this was in fife earlier today. through the rest of the day we keep blustery winds and there will be rain at times courtesy of this lump of cloud working its way in from the atlantic. and strong south—westerly winds bringing milder —— tear across many parts of the country which will bring outbreaks of rain. that will ease away from scotla nd of rain. that will ease away from scotland and northern ireland. through northern england, wales and eventually the south west, we will see outbreaks of rain and patchy drivel to the south east. —— drizzle. a lot of rain for the hills of rain and rain into cornwall. a lot of rain across north—west england, particularly cumbria. the risk of some quite poor travelling conditions and possibly some surface water flooding. scotland and northern ireland should have brighter skies in the afternoon. just one or two showers. not too bad for the six nations match at murrayfield. this evening and overnight, the wet weather continues for a time across england and wales but the rain will fizzle away. then some dry weather before more rain into northern ireland and western scotla nd into northern ireland and western scotland by the end of the night. habitually crossed north—east scotland. —— a little bit chilly across north—east scotland. some brighter glimpses to the south—east on sunday afternoon. some sunshine that heavy blustery showers working in two northern areas. pretty mild for this match. perhaps some patchy rain at times. certainly a lot of cloud. on monday, this weather front sinks south and east. some hail and thunder behind it and it will start to feel quite a bit cooler. this is bbc news. the headlines at 12: the former labour foreign secretary, david miliband, says his party is now at its weakest in 50 years after the copeland by—election defeat. jeremy corbyn insists his leadership is not to blame. iraqi forces have now entered parts of western mosul in what is expected to be a dangerous battle to remove so called islamic state from the city. the white house has excluded the bbc, the new york times and others from a media briefing. the block came just hours after president trump used a major speech to attack sections of the press. as you saw throughout the entire campaign, and even now, the fake news doesn't tell the truth. suicide bombers have attacked two security compounds in syria's third city of homs, killing dozens of people.