Transcripts For BBCNEWS Coronavirus Update 20201219

Gathering over christmas. And all this follows a surge in cases believed to be caused by a new strain or variant of covid 19, thats seriously affected london and parts of the south east of england. Professor chris whitty, englands chief medical officer has already said the new strain of the virus does spread more quickly, and that its now more vital than ever that the public strictly follows guidelines to reduce transmission. The welsh and Scottish Governments have been Holding Cabinet meetings this afternoon and along with Northern Ireland they have been discussing their approach with westminster. Scotlands first minister Nicola Sturgeon will also be holding a News Conference and well bring you that here on bbc news. Our Political Correspondent nick eardley is here. All this just before christmas, many argue that this could be done earlier but it is happening now. Just 72 hours ago borisjohnson said it would be inhuman to cancel the relaxation is christmas but it feels like a pretty big picture emerging of the number of new cases in many parts of the country in england and also in other parts of the uk. And there is concern about this new variant of the virus that the chief medical officer for england chris whitty has been talking about this morning and it is that backdrop which means that borisjohnson is done to announce some pretty big restrictions within the next hour or so. Restrictions within the next hour or so. Theres going to be attempted in england, something the government was desperate to avoid but now feels it must introduce and that will cover london and large parts of the south east of england at a minimum, it could apply to other parts of the country as well. I expect that that will feel quite close to lough dan, nonessential shops for example closing and if you plan to get a haircut in the next week or so that is pretty unlikely as well. It will have a big impact on Christmas Plans i suspect. The message that we had 72 hours ago that people should be careful of a christmas i suspect is going to be tightened up significantly and a lot of people will be urged not to travel to celebrate christmas at all. The Health Secretary matt hancock announced the details of this new variant at the beginning of the week and we know that the figures have been going up throughout the last few days yet we get this decision now . There has been i understand some data in the next 48 hours that has really worried ministers and scientists. Some hastily arranged meetings took place last night in downing street and after that no decisions were made but further conversations happen this morning and we heard from the chief medical officer chris whitty earlier saying that theyre really worried about how this new variant of the virus spreads. It is very important to emphasise that there is no evidence at this stage that it is worse for mortality or harder to treat or any way going to impact the roll out of the vaccine that we have already started. But such is the concern in government that there has been a really rapid change in the view over the last 24 hours which has led to this saturday afternoon press conference. Some think the Prime Minister did not want to do, this was not scheduled and we do expect some pretty big restrictions to be in place over christmas in large parts of the country. The real fear of this variant is that it spreads much more quickly than the original covid. We know backbenchers are restive about restrictions and any further restrictions, does the Prime Minister need their backing for this oil can you just bring this in because we know matt hancock suggested they would try to hold a vote with parliament on any change in restrictions. Is he able to do that . I do not think so, expect these new restrictions will be brought in probably this weekend with some suggesting it could be a sinister night. Parliament is not sitting at the moment so there would need to be a recall of parliament which takes about 48 hours. We looked at some details and it is not com pletely looked at some details and it is not completely clear but it seems they can do all this without a vote in parliament. It is not impossible that parliament would be recalled but i think at this stage when you hear the Prime Minister and something at four oclock, assume that it something at four oclock, assume thatitis something at four oclock, assume that it is going to happen and even if there are some in his party who say it is an example that the strategy so far has been floored and is not working, it is going to happen. Labour have argued that an sir keir starmer has been saying that the restrictions of a christmas should be tightened a little bit. And enhanced after the christmas relaxation. Presumably they are going to back this . relaxation. Presumably they are going to back this . I assume so and expect that you will hear keir starmer today if this came is introduced saying that we should have done this a few days ago to give people more notice that their Christmas Plans would be severely impacted by this. Because at wednesday we had Prime Ministers questions with borisjohnson accusing keir starmer of wanting to cancel christmas. Important to point out as well as i do not think we are going tojust see out as well as i do not think we are going to just see some stronger m essa 9 es going to just see some stronger messages in england today, the scottish cabinet is meeting as we speak and they are discussing the possibility, nothing yet decided, the possibility that some areas might be moved up into their top level of restrictions, level four. They already have a level above the one that most parts of scotland are in at the moment and likewise the Welsh Government has met, the cabinet met this afternoon although of course they already announced a lockdown coming in on the 28th of december after the christmas restrictions. But it feels like this isa restrictions. But it feels like this is a completely different picture to the one that we had 72 hours ago. 72 hours ago we would talk about people being urged not to do things, being asked to be a bit more careful and been told if you can avoid travelling then do not do it. I think were going to get much starker messaging from the Prime Minister in the next 20 minutes i think it is going to be that things are getting worse and the government is really worried that this new variant has added a new dimension and they feel they need to go that step further. It is going to be bad news. We expect Nicola Sturgeon the first minister of scotland told a press c0 nfe re nce first minister of scotland told a press Conference Today at around 5 30pm so about an hour after the Prime Minister may have finished with his comments from downing street. Four members of the public watching this and wondering what they will be able to do potentially in london and the south east, if reports are correct, that tougher so called tier 4 restrictions will come in, what will that mean in practice for people who may want to get their techie other Christmas Shopping in the next few days . Worth remembering that at no point in this crisis have the super mug so if youre thinking about christmas dinneri youre thinking about christmas dinner i think that will still be possible. If youve not done Christmas Shopping it could be another picture because i do think nonessential shops in places like london are going to close pretty soon. More broadly in terms of Christmas Plans when you, we know that sincejuly Christmas Plans when you, we know that since july is the Christmas Plans when you, we know that sincejuly is the government decided in england and scotland and Northern Ireland that the relaxation would go ahead, slightly tightened already in wales to just two hassles. But we know that brought decisions taken is that really it was too late to reverse some of the legal relaxations that have been put in place. Im not so sure that that is now the view in governmentjust speaking to a few sources this afternoon theres a feeling that this has changed. The christmas picture has changed and the number of cases has gone up significantly enough for them to be worried that particularly in places like london we have this new variant of the virus and cant for example, if people were moving from london to scotla nd people were moving from london to scotland or wales and Northern Ireland watch of the north of england, they may take the new variant with them and that may have a Significant Impact on the spread of the virus in different parts of the uk. So although we do not know for sure and will not until the Prime Minister stands up, does not painta Prime Minister stands up, does not paint a very optimistic picture for christmas in any part of the uk and i think for anyone still wondering exactly what they re i think for anyone still wondering exactly what theyre going to do, their plans could change in the next couple of hours. Im sure we will hear more from you in the next hours. Professor devi sridhar is chair of Global Public health at Edinburgh University medical school. Good to see you and thank you for joining us. There seems to be the suggestion that it is this variant, this mutation of covid that could force the government in about half an hour when they announced tighter restrictions. Would that be your understanding . I think is the combination of recent onus survey showing a growing prevalence among the country. Even without the new variant the numbers do not look good and with that in addition it seems it potentially has a faster doubling time and is more infectious. It is quite a dangerous combination to go into a relaxation period so i think people should make their own decisions now and not necessarily wait for government to change guidance but discuss with their family based on this whether they wa nt to family based on this whether they want to continue with their plans or modify them just for this year. So you say that this new variant with heard a lot about the south east and london being affected, are you saying that perhaps the whole country should go down, go up to tier 4 . I do not think we need to put everyone back into lockdown, i think we need to assess the situation of a christmas which is five days of up to three hassles mixing and all travel restrictions lifted. Based on the variant you wa nt to lifted. Based on the variant you want to put in place very quickly travel restrictions even today or tomorrow to make sure the virus does not move because it moves from people moving and then if that spreads over the country then you have a very uncomfortable very uncontrollable situation. The truth of the matter is we should not be meeting in homes right now unless we are isolating beforehand. We should meet people outside, we should be staying local and it is not cancelling christmas, it is a pandemic christmas and we do not wa nt to pandemic christmas and we do not want to pay four months into the future in terms of more deaths, hospitalisations, more restrictions, for a few days of getting together. So to be clear you do not believe that tightening the relaxation of a christmas from three hassles meeting indoors to perhaps to households, you do not think there will be enough and effectively that christmas should be cancelled . We can play with different models of two hassles, three hassles come in the end it is complicated and we need to get back into simple things for the best virus transmits inside when people are close together in unventilated settings for an extended period of time. This is White Hospitality has been hit so ha rd White Hospitality has been hit so hard because it is about eating, laughing, socialising and so it is risky to be in someone elses home and you can be mild or asymptomatic and you can be mild or asymptomatic and it is notjust like i do not feel well and i will not go for the last terminology are being very cautious at the meeting people outside or if they see others, that isolating 47, i4 outside or if they see others, that isolating 47, 14 days in advance to make sure they had not been around loads of people and potentially could be carrying the virus. Explain theissue could be carrying the virus. Explain the issue the variant, we know professor chris whitty has said it spreads more quickly, is that the main issue or could it affect the roll out of the vaccine and so on . There are three concerns with any new variant, the first is is it more infectious, is the doubling time faster and it seems that is indeed the case. The second with the Health Outcomes be more severe and it seems not yet, we do not know but it is not yet, we do not know but it is not something people should be worried about and the third thing could affect existing vaccines and it seems again that the answer is no but it remains to be seen the underlying principle is the more the virus circulates in the higher the prevalence is, the more mutations you will see and the different variants which is then harder if you try to manage it. So it points to the suppression, keeps the number low especially if we want all diagnostics and vaccines to work against it. So i think this is a warning sign not to take our eye off the ball but Pay Attention to this virus which should never be underestimated. That is the interesting point that the longer that the virus is out there the more the possibility that it could mutate and therefore leave reverence and Health Services all over the world flailing to try to keep up. Health services all over the world flailing to try to keep uplj worried about it jumping flailing to try to keep uplj worried about itjumping to animal species as we saw in denmark with the milk population and other countries, it seems to easilyjump species and once it gets into a sitting, Something Like 20 million link in almost factory like conditions it is going to mutate and at some point jump conditions it is going to mutate and at some pointjump back to humans so this is why we need to be careful keeping the numbers low in all parts of the world or else we will see different variants rising and potentially different strains and sell at this again we need to keep an eye on this. Notjust when it happened in china but in the future when it jumps across happened in china but in the future when itjumps across the species barrier. So what is your advice to borisjohnson question barrier. So what is your advice to Boris Johnson question mark barrier. So what is your advice to borisjohnson question mark we have to go hard, though early and be honest with people. We are in a bad situation and rather than giving people false hope we need to say that we are in a pandemic, every country are struggling and there are trade offs and this year will be different. You can celebrate locally and see people outside but we do not wa nt to and see people outside but we do not want to relax too much over the holidays if we are going to pay for it in january holidays if we are going to pay for it injanuary and february. And for the Health Service this is the worst period, the nhs, the doctors, cleaners, nurses showing up every day and just make your decisions more cautiously this year. That would be my message right nowjust be cautious and keep your eye on the people in the Health Service who have been doing this for months now and are exhausted. They need our support right now. Great to have your perspective. Thanks very much indeed. Our Health Editor hugh pym is here. Fundamentally, i suppose, fundamentally, isuppose, this fundamentally, i suppose, this is an admission that the current tier system doesnt work. Effectively, yes. If we look at the numbers arent hospitals and cases, they are worse than they were before the lockdown in england was announced at the end of october. Halloween. Now thatis the end of october. Halloween. Now that is a pretty stark situation to be in. What happened was the lockdown in england began to have an effect, the numbers were coming down, so it seemed reasonable to move to a tier system, but yet here we are and in some cases they are worse than they were even during the lockdown, and clearly there is data from scotland, wales and Northern Ireland which is pointed in the same direction. They have all adopted different types of response to this and different types of restrictions, but the whole uk, all the administrations are facing up to the same issue. The variant that we have been hearing about seems to be an issue for the south east of england. That is where cases have been rising really very fast indeed. We will hear more at the briefing shortly. I think people will want to knowjust a little bit of the data behind it because it first became clear on monday when matt hancock announced to the house of commons, but i think people want to know what the data is, what is going on. There is ongoing work being done by Public Health england, porton down, looking into how serious it is. How much of theirfindings by into how serious it is. How much of their findings by the government able to tell us in the short while . You have been covering this story limply over the last eight or nine months and you have been talking to a lot of health care professionals. You have been covering this story well. Is it fair to say that they suggest only a total lockdown is the way to deal with this . Given that we have just heard from the professor in edinburgh that the longer this thing is out there, more mutations and variations you can get . Yes, i think there is a fair consensus across the health and medical world who would agree with the professor on effectively curtailing the whole business of festive relaxation of the rules. We have the Health Service journal the rules. We have the Health Servicejournal and the rules. We have the Health Service journal and the the rules. We have the Health Servicejournal and the british medicaljournal coming together for a joint editorial at the beginning of the week, making clear that in their view representing the professional readerships that they have, that it is a risk that is really not worth taking, and that they wanted to see a much more draconian approach. Now that seems pretty unfair to a lot of people and there are people who say, look, there are people who say, look, there are people who say, look, there are benefits to well being and Peoples Mental Health of allowing some mixing over the Christmas Period, with loneliness and that sort of thing, but i think the real worry ultimately is that if it carries on the way it is going with cases growing the way they are, the nhs in all parts of the uk is really going to struggle. That is the key as far as the nhs is concerned. We have the nightingale hospitals, there is a surge capacity, we have that. At some point there is a finite level at which the numbers of cases must reach in orderfor the nhs to be able to continue to cope and that is the issue. The data says are certainly hospitals in england, 90 full, that still leaves 10 , but thatis 90 full, that still leaves 10 , but that is right across england and doesnt cover the fact that there are variations. Also, you need a bit of leeway to cope with emergencies, but the key problem is, normally you would see this sort of pressure we are seeing in hospitals in the middle of january in are seeing in hospitals in the middle ofjanuary in a bad winter when it is cold and when there is a flu ke. When it is cold and when there is a fluke. You are getting it now because of the covid patient numbers because of the flu. There are already cancellations of routine surgery, nonurgent operations. Think how big the waiting list is because of the cancellations in march and april. Then, the nhs in the uk, they postponed everything and turned all the hospitals to covid. They are still trying to continue now with other care but that is increasingly difficult and that is really tough for people who have been waiting months for those operations to be told, sorry, you cant have it. A number of aspects to this protect the nhs argument to. This was an opportunity to try to catch up with all those elective surgeries that we re all those elective surgeries that were put on the back burner. I think were put on the back burner. I think we also need to briefly discuss, while we are suggesting that medical professionals would ideally probably wa nt professionals would ideally probably want a lockdown to deal with this, one thing that seems to be missing is test and trace and that seems to be critical to dealing with this issue but we havent been able to get our hands around that. Yes, it seems to be working all right in july and august and then people back from holidays and pupils went back to school and it couldnt cope at that point, certainly the system in england. People waiting long periods for tests, had to drive long distances. Then capacity was scaled up distances. Then capacity was scaled up and we appear to be on top of the situation but what the experts are saying, including patrick ballance, is there comes a point with the number of cases and the rate at which they are growing that test and trace really cannot get to grips with it, you need to bring the case is down and let test and trace play its part. Certainly it has been far from perfect in recent months, shall we say . That is an important part of the armoury but it seems we are in a situation whether medical experts, Health Experts and advisers say you just have to bring that virus case numbers down and see where you go from there. Thanks very much. Much more from you, im sure, in the next few minutes. Scotlands first minister Nicola Sturgeon is also expected to hold a press conference at 5. 30pm. Lets speak to our scotland correspondent alexandra mackenzie. We were expecting Nicola Sturgeon and her various ministers and so on to discuss this on tuesday, sometime next week. They have brought this forward now, suggesting a big announcement is in the offing. Thats right. Highly unusual to have a Scottish Government briefing on saturday. That in itself is quite worrying so we are expecting some kind of big announcement. We are not sure at this stage what. We know it will be led by Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister. She has been involved in four nations discussions this morning and when she was in discussions this afternoon with her cabinet and it is surrounding that new strain of coronavirus which we understand spreads even faster than the original strain, so there is a lot of worry surrounding that. Earlier in the week we were told there were several cases, i think around six, cases of this new strain that had been detected in scotland. All within the Greater Glasgow and Clyde Health Board area. We possibly may hear a bit more about that today. Overall covid levels are lower in scotland but we were told this week not to be complacent about that, and Nicola Sturgeon also told media this morning that some action may be necessary to stop this plastic spreading strain taking over. This obviously happens at the worst time of year, coming up to christmas. Many people have possibly made travel plans to come home to scotla nd made travel plans to come home to scotland or leave scotland for christmas to meet up with families in their christmas bubble. But here in scotland there are restrictions, or the guidance for christmas, has already been tightened, and the main message from Nicola Sturgeon in the last few days is not to have your christmas bubble, but just last few days is not to have your christmas bubble, butjust to stay within your own household over christmas. And if you are going to meet up with other people, possibly meet up with other people, possibly meet up with other people, possibly meet up for a day and possibly outside. We have also over the last couple of days had some hints and suggestions that we could possibly see a tightening of restrictions in the few days after christmas. Now, in terms of levels, scotland already has a level four and at the moment no Council Areas are in level four, although some Council Areas, including glasgow, had been previously in level four. 80 of the population at the moment are in level three and what that means is hospitality can still open up during the day, but cannot serve alcohol, and also nonessential shops were able to reopen, as well. We are not sure if these restrictions are going to tighten up again. We will hear more from the first minister around 5 30pm. In half an hour. Thanks for that, alexandra. Nick eardley is back with us here in the studio. Just hearing from alexandra, they seems to be a level of coordination between the devolved government and westminster. There was a four nations call this morning about this new variant of the virus that hugh was talking about a few minutes ago and there was real concern. Although we have been talking about this new tier 4 and the possibility that that will be, with a likelihood that will be brought in london and the south of england, south east of england, i beg your pardon. I think this press conference is going to be quite important for a lot of people around the country. We dont know the specifics of what is about to be announced but some sources suggesting that this will have a more general impact, that this is a fairly big moment, actually, in the governments handling of this pandemic. Remember that we have had a couple of lockdown is in england already. There was one back in march, the one announced in october for november, as well. In the next hour or so we for november, as well. In the next hourorso we are for november, as well. In the next hour or so we are going to hear some pretty big announcement from government, it feels like. They will have a pretty big impact for the next wee while and i wont lie. It feels to me like we should be expecting bad news about what is going to happen in the next couple of weeks. Where does all this leave the Prime Minister standing, given that it was only yesterday that he was speaking publicly on this issue, and there was no suggestion that we might be on the eve of these kinds of new very, very tough restrictions . I think thats right. If you cast your mind back 2pm hughes on wednesday, borisjohnson was talking about the increased messaging around christmas, urging people not to travel where possible and not to stay overnight if they could avoid it borisjohnson was saying in pmqs. At that point he said it would be inhuman to cancel christmas. We dont know exactly if thatis christmas. We dont know exactly if that is what he is going to do over the next hour but it does feel like things have moved on considerably in the last few days and just to paint a picture of what has happened, the real concern in the Scientific Community and in government about the impact of this new variant of the impact of this new variant of the virus is having. It is not that it is more deadly or makes you more ill or that it will not work with the vaccine. It is that it spreads quicker. And because of that concern about the virus spreading quicker, particularly in london and south east, there have been conversations in the last 24 hours which have been described to me extremely serious. There was an emergency meeting last night of ministers and scientific advisors. Decisions were not made them but it was at that point week started to get a hint that something was happening and it was this morning when those ministers met with scientific advisers again, decisions we re scientific advisers again, decisions were made and then relayed to the cabinet and to the four nations of the uk. So remember when Boris Johnson stands up, although the Science Council everywhere he is talking about england. It is possible later this evening that in scotla nd possible later this evening that in scotland we might see some changes. I dont think they will necessarily be as severe as those we see in england but it is quite possible they could be new restrictions brought in there, as well, and we know they have been discussions happening in wales and Northern Ireland, although the context of course is that lockdown have already been announced for just course is that lockdown have already been announced forjust after the Christmas Period. So the question there is whether they think there is enough infrastructure after christmas to deal with what they are seeing at the moment. Tier for restrictions, if they do come in, and that is the suggestion for london and the south east, and they extend beyond christmas, would that include the closure of schools . dont think so, although of course in many parts of the country, schools are, if not finished, about to finish. There is also the sty could return injanuary that to finish. There is also the sty could return in january that we to finish. There is also the sty could return injanuary that we know about. We have hit the government say over and over england and the governments across the uk thats keeping kids in school is an absolute priority. They do not want to risk that. And supermarkets will stay open, as well. Anyone sitting there on saturday afternoon making a list for Christmas Shopping, you know, the turkey is likely to still be available in the shops. Other elements of Christmas Shopping, however, might not be if you are in certain parts of the country. Expected nonessential shops could close pretty soon in london and the south east. As well as a personal impact on loads of how it viewers it will have a massive impact on the economy a week before christmas, as well. You know, there is no disguising it. What we are about to hear over the next 30 to 40 minutes is going to be a pretty bleak picture of the festive period and it is all in the context of increasing concern in government about how the virus is spreading. I ask about schools because the suggestion at the beginning of the week was that pa rt the beginning of the week was that part of the spread of this new variant, certainly in parts of kent, was because schools were open. Yes and speaking to people in the Education Department earlier this week that clearly is a concern that they had the smell, they think the a nswer they had the smell, they think the answer is to bring in these rapid tests in schools and we know that they will be phased in and the first week of term and that is why pupils in secondary schools are having a staggered return for some years. There is a lot to this and i think youre right that people will ask questions about the mixing around schools but i think in general they are going to see the government urging an even stricter interpretation of the guidance over the next couple of weeks than we had on wednesday. On wednesday ministers we re on wednesday. On wednesday ministers were saying do not travel if you do not have to, do not stay overnight ofa not have to, do not stay overnight of a christmas if possible, do not leave your own household bubble. I think we will hear something even more strict in the next hour or so. And just a reminderfor viewers more strict in the next hour or so. And just a reminder for viewers who may bejoining us and just a reminder for viewers who may be joining us that this is a bbc news special and we expect a News Conference from number ten downing st with the Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his chief medical adviser and chief scientific adviser and we believe that we will be hearing tighter restrictions being announced particularly for the london and south east areas of england as a result of this mutation, this variant of covid which spreads much more quickly and we understand in the last couple of hours or days, the Scientific Data has been pretty alarming for ministers who have seen these numbers and as a result we are likely to get this announcement in the next few minutes. We expect that at the top of the hour, we understand it has been delayed for a few minutes so we will hang on for that, to stay with us as we will bring that life. Nick eardley is here, ijust bring that life. Nick eardley is here, i just want to understand bring that life. Nick eardley is here, ijust want to understand what tier 4 means in practice for the us just joining tier 4 means in practice for the us justjoining us now, what could it mean for people in england and the south east . Mean for people in england and the southeast . I think it will feel a lot like lockdown, i do not expect that supermarkets will close, they are not close so far but i do think nonessential shops are likely to close and there are questions over what will happen to things like hairdressers in the next couple of weeks, it is going to be a pretty big impact on our lives in the next couple of weeks. And also when we talk about why this is happening it is important to remember that the rate of infection in the uk according to the most recent data which, yesterday has risen above one so that is the important context, the pandemic is growing again. It was below one for a while and the government hope that after the lockdown in november in england that things were beginning to move in the right direction. But i think now we have concluded their moving in wrong direction. So tier 4 certainly in london and the south east of england, quite possible in other parts of the country as well. We may well see other restrictions in scotla nd well see other restrictions in scotland in the next few hours as well. And they will have a pretty big impact on our lives. Christmas this year is not going to feel the same and it is not going to feel the same and it is not going to feel the same as the picture many of us thought had emerged on wednesday where yes, the message was do not do it if you do not have to but there was still the legal possibility of doing it. Ithink was still the legal possibility of doing it. I think frankly in an hour we are going to be talking about a much bleaker picture when it comes to what we are going to be doing in the next couple of weeks. And from a political point of view and medical point of view a we potentially going to see a tightening of what these tiers are because since lockdown it is clear that the tiers system has not been the overall success eve ryo ne not been the overall success everyone had hoped. Many in government have resisted the idea of tier 4 government have resisted the idea of tier4 in government have resisted the idea of tier 4 in england, we had some ministers dismissing that as a prospect. They did not want to do this, did not want to tighten the tiers more than they had already done when we came out of lockdown in england at the start of december. Things have changed quite significantly in the past 72 hours and it is these warnings over this new variant of the virus which remembered do not necessarily make you more ill or make treatment invalid but the real concern is that it is starting to spread a lot quicker in parts of the south east of england and in london and it is that context that means that Boris Johnson is about to announce a big tightening of restrictions on the pa rt tightening of restrictions on the part of the country and potentially some fairly significant measures that could impact people elsewhere as well. This is going to be a big announcement. We just have the latest coronavirus figures that have just been reported. 27,052 new cases of covid i9 in the last 24 hour period. So that is slightly up. Im not sure those figures have been updated but i have 20,052 new cases of covid i9 in front of me here in the last 24 hours. And i can tell you as welljust coming into us that we have 534 deaths in the past, within 28 days of a positive covid i9 test. So 534 new deaths in the past 24 hour reporting period. That is of people diagnosed with covid i9, having a positive testa m e nt covid i9, having a positive testament within 28 days. I suppose the question as well is how long could these 20 restrictions last for not just with the could these 20 restrictions last for notjust with the Christmas Period but perhaps how much longer beyond that . It is a good question and will be interesting to see if the Prime Minister gives any update on that. At the moment we get fairly regular reviews and there are many mps were members who are not happy at the way this process is being handled by the government and who have been promised a vote within the next few weeks about the restrictions in place. However this picture is clearly changing quite quickly because the last review was on wednesday and on wednesday some parts of the country lived up to tier 3, parts of the country lived up to tier3, a parts of the country lived up to tier 3, a couple lived down on wednesday as well and thursday but todays the day that that comes into force and i think what we are about to see is significant part of england told that actually these do not go far enough and our advisers are telling us now that we need to go further and make sure that people really are not mixing. The context of forces winter which is always a more difficult time for the nhs and it feels that the number of cases and hospitalisations and the concern over the emerging number of deaths has meant that the government feels it now has got to act. There will be criticism politically that the decision was not taken sooner, that tier 4 was not announced at an earlier date and we know for example the Labour Party Said they thought the Labour Party Said they thought the restrictions of a christmas would have to be a lot tougher. The fa ct would have to be a lot tougher. The fact that this is happening on the 19th of december and it is going to be introduced potentiallyjust five days before christmas is a real sign of what is happening behind the scenes which is huge consent from ministers and scientific advisers about the spread of the virus. To be clear the Prime Minister does not have to have the consent of parliament for this, this is something that can be implemented straightaway as soon as tonight . think that is what is likely to happen, yes. There are ways that you can amend the law in Parliament Without having to have a vote of mps andi without having to have a vote of mps and i suspect that that is what is going to happen here. It will be interesting to see what the conservative party think of this because speaking to cabinet ministers just yesterday some resisted these restrictions and thought that tier 4 was too extreme and not necessary and that we should keep on the path in england that has been pursued in the last few days. But i think quite frankly the data that the Prime Minister was shown last night at a meeting with his scientific advisers and other ministers has meant that they felt the need to act. It was just six weeks ago that we last sat here on a saturday looking at downing street and waiting for the Prime Minister to appear. I hope he does not take as long this time but i think the point is that something has changed and something has spooked ministers and something has spooked ministers and the feeling now is they cannot wait to act. So expect some big announcements and some really quite worrying announcements for many of us commit things that could wreck our plans over the next couple of weeks but that ministers feel are essential. Nighttime pictures there of number ten essential. Nighttime pictures there of numberten in essential. Nighttime pictures there of number ten in westminster, three podiums and waiting for the Prime Minister borisjohnson podiums and waiting for the Prime Minister Boris Johnson and podiums and waiting for the Prime Minister borisjohnson and his chief medical and chief scientific adviser to come out and give us the very latest information on the government handling of the coronavirus pandemic. We have been told it is just going to be a few minutes before they come out. A little bit delayed. But everyone is waiting for that big announcement shortly. Nick, i suppose everyone was going into the Festive Season understanding that there was going to be a relaxation of the rules, into the new year with the vaccine that has been rolled out, that people are getting. This is a huge dampener on all of that but at the end of the date lives need to be saved, this is the argument from the government and indeed here they are. Borisjohnson, the Prime Minister and his chief scientific adviser and medical adviser. Good afternoon everybody and thank you forjoining the latest Coronavirus Press conference. Yesterday afternoon i was briefed on the latest data that shows the virus spreading more rapidly in london and the south east of england than were being expected given the tough restrictions already in place. I also received an explanation as to why the virus is spreading more rapidly in these areas. It seems that the spread is now being driven by the new variant of the virus which we spoke about earlier this week. And learned about earlier this week. And learned about earlier this week. Our Advisory Group on new and emerging respiratory virus, nervtag, has spent the last few days analysing this new variant. There is no evidence that it causes more severe illness or higher mortality. But it does appear to be passed on significantly more easily. The early Analysis Firm nervtag suggests the new variant could increase the r by century or more and may be up to 70 more transmissible than the original version of the disease. This is early data and subject to review but it is the best that we have at the moment and we have to act on information as we have it because this is now spreading very fast. The uk has by far the best genomic sequencing ability in the world which means that we are better able to identify new strains like this than any other country. The chief medical officer last night submitted our findings medical officer last night submitted ourfindings so farto medical officer last night submitted our findings so far to the World Health Organisation and we will continue to be totally transparent with our global partners. There is still much that we do not know, fairly certain that the variant is transmitted more quickly but there is no evidence to suggest that it is more lethal or that it causes more severe illness and equally there is no evidence to suggest that the vaccine will be any less effective against the new variant. Our experts will continue their work to improve our understanding as fast as we can. So we are learning about it as we go but we already know enough, more than enough to be sure that we must act now. So i met ministers on the Covid Operations Committee Last night and Covid Operations Committee Last nightand again Covid Operations Committee Last night and again this morning and cabinet met at lunchtime to agree the following actions. First we will introduce new restrictions in the most affected areas specifically those parts of london, the south east and east of england which are currently in tier 3. These areas will enter a new tier 4 which will be broadly equivalent to the National Restrictions in place in england in november. That means that residents in those areas must stay at home apart from limited exemptions set out in the law. Nonessential retail, indoor gyms and Leisure Facilities and personal Care Services must close. People must work from home if a can but may travel to work if this is not possible for example in the construction and manufacturing sectors. People should not enter or leave them to areas and tempter residents must not stay overnight away from home. Individuals can only meet one person from another household in an outdoor public space. Unlike the november restrictions communal worship can continue to take place in tier 4 areas that these measures will take effect from tomorrow morning. All tiers will continue to be regularly reviewed in line with the approach furiously set out with the next formal review taking place on the 30th of december. Previously set out. We are issuing new advice on travel. Although the new variant is concentrated in tier 4 areas it is concentrated in tier 4 areas it is nonetheless present at lower levels around the country, so we are asking everyone in all tiers to stay local. People should carefully consider whether they need to travel abroad, and they should follow the rules in their tier. Those in tier 4 areas will not be permitted to travel abroad, apart from limited exceptions such as for work purposes. Third, we must, im afraid, look again at christmas. As Prime Minister it is my duty to take difficult decisions, to do what is right to protect the people of this country. Given the early evidence we have on this new variant of the virus, the potential risk it poses, it is with very heart i must tell you we cannot continue with christmas as planned. In england, those living in tier 4 areas should not mix with anyone outside their own household at christmas. Though up own household at christmas. Though up bubbles will remain in place back up support bubbles will remain in place. Across the rest of the country the christmas reels allowing up country the christmas reels allowing up to three households to meet will now be limited to Christmas Day only, rather than the five days as previously set out. As before, there will be no relaxation on the 31st of january, so people must not break the rules at new year. They must not break the rules at new year, it is very important to emphasise that. I know how much emotion people invest in at this time of year and how important it is, for instance, for grandparents to see their grandchildren, for families to grandparents to see their grandchildren, forfamilies to be together. I know how disappointing this will be. But we have said throughout this pandemic that we must, and we will be, guided by the science. When the science of changes, we must change our response. And when the virus changes its method of attack, we must change our method of defence. And as your Prime Minister i sincerely believe there is no alternative open to me. Without action, the evidence suggests that infections would soar, hospitals would become overwhelmed and many thousands more it would lose their lives. I want to stress that we are not alone in this fight or in taking these types of our european friends and neighbours are being forced to take similar action. Whilst working closely with the devolved administrations to protect people in every part of the uk. And of course there is now real, real hope that we will soon be rid of this virus. That prospect is growing with every day that passes and every vaccine dose that is administered, as you note the uk it was the first country in the western world to start using a clinically approved vaccine, and so, please, if the nhs contacts vaccine, and so, please, if the nhs co nta cts you vaccine, and so, please, if the nhs contacts you then get your vaccine andjoin contacts you then get your vaccine and join the 350,000 people across the uk who have already had their first dose. Yes, christmas this year will be different. Very different. But we must be realistic. We are sacrificing the chance to see our loved ones. This christmas. So we have a better chance of protecting their lives so that we can see them at future christmases. And as sure as night follows day we will defeat this the virus and reclaim our lives. I will hand over now to patrick, who will go through some of the sliced explaining this decision. Thank you very much. May i have the first slide, please . This slide is the office for National Statistics slide showing infections have risen again in recent weeks. It shows the percentage of positive tests against time, and you can see from july to september it was fairly flat. An increase occurred during september up increase occurred during september up to increase occurred during september uptoa increase occurred during september up to a peak, after which the lockdown led to a decrease in the numbers during november, and it is now on the increase again. The lockdown brought the numbers down and now we are seeing them rising again. Next slide, please. This shows the levels on the 29th of november up to the 13th of december. On the left hand side is the average cases in the last two weeks from november 29 and on the right hand side is in mid december. The darker the colour, the higher the number of cases the colour, the higher the number of cases in the last two weeks to november 29. What you can see festival is in some areas have got very dark and here it is south wales and the south east of england, and that the overall cases have increased by more than 50 . A substantial increase in over the period december. Ifi substantial increase in over the period december. If ijust concentrate now on the south east, east and london, we will see a picture which i think begins to link into the new virus variant. Next slide, please. So this is hospital admissions per day in london, east of england and the south east from nhs data from september through to now. You can see a gradual increase in the number of hospital admissions per day, and you can see very sharp during december. This virus has taken off, it is moving fast, and it is leading inevitably to a sharp increase in hospital admissions. Next slide, please. If we now look just at the areas that are moving into tier 4, as the Prime Minister has just into tier 4, as the Prime Minister hasjust said, which is into tier 4, as the Prime Minister has just said, which is areas into tier 4, as the Prime Minister hasjust said, which is areas in london, the south east and the east, and look at the number of cases, the case rate against time, but you can see is that the number of cases increase or in the case rate increases dramatically. If you look at the dotted line that is what england as a whole. Case rate is increasing took november, decreasing during lockdown and increasing again. But if you look at the solid blue line, which is london and the south east and the east, in tier 4, you can see a rapid increase, a very sharp increase in rates over the period of december. So we have a particularly fast moving problem with increased numbers in the area going into tier 4, with increased numbers in the area going into tier4, but with increased numbers in the area going into tier 4, but a generalised increase across the country. Next slide, please. Id like tojust to spend a moment talking about the new variant. So the new variant, and viruses mutate all the time, but the new variant contains 23 different changes. Many of them are associated with changes in the protein that the virus makes. This is an unusually large number of variants. It also has variance in areas of the virus that im known to be associated with how the virus binds to cells and enters cells. So there are some changes which caused concern in terms of how the virus looks. But on top of that, there are three questions that need to be asked. Does the new variant to transmit more readily . Ie does it make an increased chance of spreading growth . The second is does it all of the disease, does it make people more sick . And the third is, does it alter the way that the immune system, the way the body responds to it if it has been previously infected, or following the vaccine . I want to deal with the first question. There are three different sources of evidence from genetic studies to frequency studies to laboratory studies, all of which come together to suggest this virus has a significant substantial increase in transmissibility. This is also highlighted in this graph, which shows the proportion of all the cases that were due to the new variant. So the new variant was first thought to have occurred sometime in mid september in london or kent, and by the middle of november, about 28 or so of the cases in london and the south east, and slightly lower in the east of england, where due to the new variant. So it had grown rapidly. By the week commencing the 9th of december these figures were much higher. So in london, over 60 of all the cases where the new variant. So what this tells us is that this new variant not only moves fast, it is increased in its terms of being able to transmit but it is a beating all of the others in terms of transmission and has become dominant. This virus transmits and breads fast. Does it alter the disease course . The answer seems to be know as far as we can tell at the moment. There is no evidence it causes a more severe disease, more hospitalisation, more trouble than the other virus. It basically looks similar. Does it alter the immune response, or is the immune system less a ble response, or is the immune system less able to recognise it . There are theoretical reasons to suspect some of the changes might alter some of the immune response but nothing has been seen to suggest that is the case, and our working assumption at the moment from all of the scientists is that the vaccine response should be adequate for this virus. That obviously needs to be looked at Going Forward and we need to keep vigilant about this, but the big change therefore is not disease progress, not the immunity, but transmission. This virus spreads more easily and therefore are measures are needed to keep it under control. We absolutely need to stick to the basics of making sure that we reduce our contact, reduce ability for the virus to spread, and that is the recent topic measures are required to keep this variant of the control. Thanks very much, patrick. Chris, is there anything you want to add . Thank you both very much. Lets go to questions from the public and then the media. First to laura from worthing. Why are people still expected to work in tier 3 . As someone who has lost loved ones, this terrifies me why are shielded expected to work . Well, laura, your question of why shielders are still expected to work in tier3, shielders are still expected to work in tier 3, those who are shielding, those who are vulnerable, should of course take every step to protect themselves and, laura, i hope very much that you are not being asked to work if you are shielding. Chris . am sorry to hear about your two relatives who died from this virus. It isa relatives who died from this virus. It is a very dangerous virus for many people. But shielding patterns are actually being looked at again. The view about shielding is that in the first wave, shielding did many things that were useful but also many things that were actively harmful and we therefore changed the model of shielding since the first wave, and that includes people being able to get out more in many situations and also areas around work. This is something people are keeping looking at to get the optimal balance between isolating people too much and isolating them enough from the virus yellow thanks very much. Lets go to mike from cheshire. He asks. In the daily updates, people testing positive, could you also provide the number of people who have the vaccine . Mike, thanks for that. And yes, as you have heard from mejust thanks for that. And yes, as you have heard from me just now, thanks for that. And yes, as you have heard from mejust now, the figure that i have been given today is 350,000 have so far had their first dose. We will make sure we keep people regularly updated on the roll out of the vaccine. Lets go to Laura Kuenssberg of the bbc. Thank you very much. There were calls for you very much. There were calls for you to drop the plans for christmas la st you to drop the plans for christmas last week, just a few days ago, but on wednesday you told me and our viewers it would be inhuman to change the plans. Now that is exactly what you have done. Arent there are millions of people whose plans have just been torn up who are entitled to feel that you have left this too late and caused them more personal disruption and upset by doing so . Can i ask the medics, you have shed the analysis of this new variant and you mentioned porton down have been looking at this in an earlier press conference this week. Can you say if porton down have completed their assessments of it . Professor chris whitty, if someone is packing a bag right now, trying to leave the south east by midnight tonight, what should they do . Laurette, let me first of all say to everybody who has made plans for christmas, as i said earlier on, eve ryo ne christmas, as i said earlier on, everyone who has thought about it, all the care and love that has gone into plans for christmas, we of course bitterly regret the changes that are necessary but, alas, when the facts change you have to change your approach and the briefing i had yesterday about this mutation of the virus, particularly about the speed of transmission, was not possible to ignore. When the virus changes its method of attack, we as a country have to change our method of defence, and that is what we are doing. Shall i take the one directly to me and patrick may want to talk about porton down. I want to put some numbers out there because i think that helps to explain why i will give the answer i my short answer would be please unpack it. At this stage. The reason for that is that if you look at the south east, look at the east of england and at london, there has been a really dramatic increase in the portion of the cases that we see when we do the screening test, which are not absolutely exact but pretty accurate, that imply that in the south east, 43 of the virus is now this new variant. In the east of england it is 59 and in london at 62 . The numbers may vary slightly but those numbers are broadly right and those have gone up very, very fa st over and those have gone up very, very fast over the last few weeks. So this has really gone incredibly quickly. They are much lower in other areas of the country. Looking at the racing increase in hospitalisations with the numbers of people in hospital across the country in areas where this is very common seeing rates increasingly beat 36 in the east of england, 34 in london and 28 in the south east and these are the areas which have significant numbers of this new variant. If you go to say the north we st variant. If you go to say the north west and north east of yorkshire in these areas we have had no increase in hospitalisations, they are managing to keep things down in tier 3and managing to keep things down in tier 3 and looking at the rates of this new variant in those areas you see that they are much lower. In brookshire and the humber for example around 5 . Again exact numbers do not matter but the point is if you have low amount of this variant the rate of increase is held by the tiers but if not it goes up privately on the big worry is that this is growing up in terms of percentage where it is, so getting a higherand higher percentage where it is, so getting a higher and higher proportion of the cases and as patrick said the chance of someone getting infected and then having to go to hospital or are dying at the end of that seem to be roughly the same as far as we can see so roughly the same as far as we can see so far as the previous variant. And if they were to go with this new variant of unwittingly area that has a low prevalence and start this being seeded even more outside high prevalence areas then that would be a significant risk to the area that they went to. That is the reason that we are really keen that people do not go from these areas because otherwise we will see it going up in the areas where it is already a problem but also going out to other areas of the country where it is currently not a problem and this information, with this information you really do have to act now because otherwise every area of the country will get this quickly and then none will be able to hold things with tier and tier 2 elsewhere. Just to answer at the porton down question, theyre looking at this all the time and when data becomes available we will get that out as soon as we can. We do not have any more information than we showed today. Lets go to Robert Preston of itv. Your colleague to send me a statement from sage saying that this is the worst moment of the pandemic with this new strain. Would you agree . We have the virus rising in kent during the knockdown, during tier 3, why did you not take evasive action meant to close down kent even before you knew that there was a new strain and what confidence do you have that the new tier 4 measures will suppress the virus even that the lockdown did not suppress it in kent . Just as a layman to answer that, i think the whole point is that, i think the whole point is that we were very puzzled during the november fifth december the 3rd quarter measures by why the tier 3 system was not delivering the results in kent that it was delivering in a couple of other places, for example that it was delivering in the north west. Clearly there was something going on, and clearly there was something going on, and i think it is fair to say that it was not until yesterday with this data on transmissibility that we really got the answer that explains it. And the action today is in response to that change in the science, that is my layman answer. Im afraid there have been so many terrible moments in this epidemic and this is another one but i have to say in my own view this is not the worst moment in the epidemic and the worst moment in the epidemic and the reason for that is although the virus is more transmissible and we must do everything we can as the Prime Minister has announced to keep it as constrained as possible and keep it down as much as possible so it does not spread, we do have medical countermeasures, we have the vaccine already rolled out and therefore there is a prospect in the medium term future where things could get quite a lot better. Thinking back to the dark days at the end of march and april, numbers we re the end of march and april, numbers were going up incredibly fast and mortality was higher than now because medical treatment has got better, and we had no vaccine on the horizon then. Sol better, and we had no vaccine on the horizon then. So i think that this isa horizon then. So i think that this is a situation which is going to make things a lot worse, there are some really optimistic things if you look once we get the vaccine out, assuming it works against this which isa assuming it works against this which is a working assumption, we really must hold the line and my view is what we must absolutely do is to slow this down as much as possible. If we can take it down from a doubling time of every seven days which is really fast if you think about that and put it right out even if we do not manage to get it all made out as we help, then at least we will not have this skyrocketing and the numbers spreading out across the country that will give us a chance to get the vaccine out and protect the most vulnerable people. So if it escapes what we have is the barrier of the vaccine to help protect them. Sol barrier of the vaccine to help protect them. So i think that this isa protect them. So i think that this is a bad moment, that is the reason these decisions are being taken by these decisions are being taken by the Prime Minister and these decisions are being taken by the Prime Ministerand ministers these decisions are being taken by the Prime Minister and ministers but at least there is this prospect in the future. I agree with that, it is for sure a horrible moment, but i think we should be thankful that we have got the genetic sequencing that has got onto this very fast and found an explanation as to what was going on. It was important that we got that one and we will continue to utilise that resource in the uk and we know what needs to happen to try to slow this down and that is the basic things. Although this is complicated in many ways in other ways it is contacts, to the basics. Face, hands, space, make sure that is what we do to try to resist the ability of the virus to spread from one person to another. And that will slow it down and that is what we need to make sure we get on top of as chris said. This will slow it down and we need to make sure that we keep a lid on this. For sure it is not a good moment but it is co ntrolla ble is not a good moment but it is controllable and as chris says there is an important light at the end of the tunnel with vaccination having started. Thank you both. Sam coates from sky news. This decision will be upsetting for minutes people, could you just speak directly to everyone now spending Christmas Day alone, what hope can you give them and what is your message to people considering breaking the rules . How long will a great do you think everyone will need to stay in tier 4 . And to our scientists, is the new strain impervious to social distancing measures, might the two metres rule and existing face coverings no longer be enough to protect people . Coverings no longer be enough to protect people . Would coverings no longer be enough to protect people . Would you travel in a train carriage through kent tonight . Thanks very much and obviously these measures as i say will be reviewed every two weeks like the others and they will be a chance for parliament to consider them obviously on top of all the other questions at the end of january. Obviously people should not break the rules. Obviously people should follow the guidance and i very much hope that elderly or Lonely People who are able to form bubbles will have that consolation. That is clear from what we have said today. But i suppose what i would say to everyone now thinking of having a much reduced christmas, of course we bitterly regret that this is necessary this year. I know how much love and thought goes into preparations for christmas and i suppose the message is that this is the year to lift a glass to those who are not there in the knowledge thatis who are not there in the knowledge that is precisely because they are not there to celebrate christmas with this year that will have a better chance that they will be there next year to celebrate christmas with you. I suppose that would be my message to the country. In terms of the social distancing, social distancing does work. It does not work as a yes, no, the more things you do and the more determinedly you do them and the more people to these basic things for themselves, and also break unnecessary household links, the more this and every other respiratory virus goes down. Just to give some other examples, for example give some other examples, for exa m ple influenza give some other examples, for example influenza rates are down because they have exactly the same effect on other respiratory viruses. We do not think the current measures will not work against this but we are going to have to do a lot more ina are going to have to do a lot more in a sense is if you are cycling up a steep hill but now you have the wind against you as well. We need to do more to keep going but the tools themselves remain the same. Would i go through kent . Not unless it was absolutely necessary. Kent is fantastic but this is not the moment with this virus circulating to unnecessary travel. So only if there was a very good reason. Thanks very much, sam. Chris hope of the daily telegraph. Chris, we continue, you need to unmute. To think that the police should be stopping people travelling outside of tier 4 and to advise police to knock on the door of households breaking these rules on Christmas Day . And ill be back to essentially lockdown until march . And for the scientists and medics, i wonder why britain has got this variant so badly, which other countries have it and how did the new variant get here . countries have it and how did the new variant get here . I think the police festival have done an amazing job of enforcement, light touch enforcement. They handed out lots of fixed penalty notices for breaches of the rules but they have also helped to keep people overwhelmingly in line with what they need to do. And i thank the police men and women up and i thank the police men and women up and down the country for what theyre doing and im sure they will continue to do it in the same way throughout this period. But above all i think people will naturally wa nt to all i think people will naturally want to do it themselves as they have done throughout this crisis. The bulk of the population this incredibly seriously and get it right. And i will continue to do so. In terms of the question about why here and where else is it, a virus can mutate all the time so there are many mutations around the world and this one is a particular constellation of changes which we think is important. I think they arise every time a virus replicates it can make a mistake and sell some of these things arise by chance. The question is what advantage it gives the virus and this seems to be the advantage of tra nsmissibility. The virus and this seems to be the advantage of transmissibility. We think it may be in other countries as well, we think it probably is mainly based is a large outbreak in the uk, it may have started here, we do not know for sure. There will be other kinds of mutations around the world and it is important we have a sequencing effort to try to find out what the sequence is doing and how much it has changed. That needs to be looked at locally and we need to get a handle on where these changes are happening across the world. That will be an important part of surveillance Going Forward. Nigel nelson of the sunday mirror. For the Prime Minister, given you were at least aware that there was a new variant of the virus out there as far back as november, do you now feel it was reckless to promised five days of christmas against scientific advice . And for chris whitty, earlier in the week you were talking about keeping meetings at christmas time is short without specifying what short was. Can you now say for tier , tier 2 and tier 3 whether that should be seen granny for a 3 whether that should be seen granny fora cup of 3 whether that should be seen granny for a cup of tea for one hour or four hours going to sleep over the telly . Thank you very much. Weve a lwa ys telly . Thank you very much. Weve always taken telly . Thank you very much. Weve always ta ken account telly . Thank you very much. Weve always taken account of scientific advice, always tried to follow it and that is what were doing because the science is clearly changing and has changed in the sense that our understanding of this new virus and its transmissibility has been radically shifted just in the last 24 hours. And the understanding certainly of the people before you here this afternoon. And we simply cannot ignore that. That is why we are taking these extra steps today to protect the country. To answer the question you put to me, im happy to repeat what i said, to the extent that you possibly can, keep it small and keep it short, keep it local and remember the vulnerable are vulnerable. That is still absolutely the message. So if you have a grandmother you really want to minimise the amount of contact, keep it at a distance, have the shortest period that you can. Because what you really want is to get the point where your grandmother has been vaccinated, ideally when you and people around you have been vaccinated, taking that risk right down and at that point we are in a different place but at this really critical and dangerous time pre vaccine but high transmission, i repeat this, keep it small, keep it short and keep it local. And remember at the vulnerable. In short should mean as short as you can manage with a reasonable social interaction. I think one way to think about it is to assume that you could be infectious. You may be infectious and that is the way we have to behave at this moment. It cannot be stressed too often that a lot of the transmission of the infection is by people who dont have symptoms at the time. Still now, i dont think people fully get that in the way perhaps they need to. It is absolutely vital. I think one in three infections are transmitted in a symptomatically, still, and people really need to realise that. Can we go to the mail on sunday . Prime minister, you said earlier that when the facts change you have to change your approach. The fact three days ago whe that you knew about the new strain and new infections were rising. You said it was infections were rising. You said it was too late to cancel christmas. How do you expect people to follow the rules when they keep changing . Another question for you, have you, are you going to put any Additional Support in place for businesses and shops that have to close now . Thanks. On the fact of the science, i think we have tried to spell out this afternoon what has changed, and what has changed is the velocity of transmission. Our understanding of how fast this disease is transmitted, and the susceptibility of people to getting it. As i say, nervtag thinks it is up to 70 more transmissible now than the old variant. We simply cannot ignore that. That data has been in our possession for a day or so and we have to act and protect the public. Obviously we will do everything we can, as usual, to look after business, look afterjobs and livelihoods throughout the pandemic. And we will continue to do that with the loan scheme, with furloughing, which the chancellor has extended right through to the end of april. We will continue to look after businesses that are forced to close asa businesses that are forced to close as a result of, alas, what is happening. They will receive the protections that we have put in place. The loans and grants we have put in place and we will continue with all that. I want to stress that this is race and we are still doing our absolute level best to protect the public whilst we know that the vaccine is arriving, and im very confident, more confident than ever, that we will get that vaccine into a significant portion of the population by the spring and that things will be radically different for our country by easter. I am absolutely convinced of that and although this is unquestionably a difficult moment in the campaign against this virus and the struggle against this virus and the struggle against this virus and the struggle against this virus, those fundamentalfacts, against this virus, those fundamental facts, that fundamental reason for optimism, that remains unchanged. Thank you all very much. Studio so the Prime Minister concluding that coronavirus briefing. Summer and a sobering news there, along with professor chris whitty and professor patrick vallance. Lets recap the main details. Very significant changes that have been announced for christmas for london and the south east affecting Something Like 17. 7 million people. The Prime Minister said the new variant of the virus has led to an alarming spread of covid 19 across the south east, east of england and london. He said it was 70 more transmissible than the original virus. So the upshot is that the planned relaxation of coronavirus rules for christmas has been scrapped for those affected areas and in other parts of england, the gathering of three households for the feastive season can now only take place Christmas Day. From midnight tonight, a new tier 4 with measures similar to the last National Lockdown in november will be introduced in areas such as kent, essex, bedfordshire, buckinghamshire and across all of london. People will be advised not to travel into or out of tier 4 areas, and the restrictions come in from midnight tonight. In tier 4 a stay at home order will be issued to residents although those who have to travel for education or work may continue to do so. Social mixing will be restricted to meeting one other person in an open public space. All non essential retail will have to close along with hairdressers, nail bars and indoor entertainment venues. And lets take a look at those scaled back Christmas Plans for people in tier 4 there is no household mixing for areas in tier 4. But support bubbles are unaffected by that. And for areas in tiers 1 to 3, people can only mix on Christmas Day for one day only. Our Political Correspondent nick eardley is here. Knew where arent the money that this was going to be a pretty dire assessment of the situation. Not just for those areas, london, the south east of england, where we knew this variant was rampant, but other parts of the country, as well look, this is a massive change for the country. Just a few days ahead of christmas. It means that roughly a third of people in england will be living in that tier 4 from midnight, which is going to have a huge impact on peoples lives and, of course, there Christmas Plans as well as the wider economy. I think you got a pretty sombre message from the Prime Minister, one which has changed significantly in 72 hours. It has gone from trying not to move too far for christmas if you can to telling a third of england you can travel for christmas. If you are in tier 4, dont leave, dont stay the night at other houses. Dont form the christmas bubble. For everyone else, same to them, if you want to form a christmas bubble, only do it on christmas bubble, only do it on Christmas Day. This is a reflection of how worried ministers are with the new data they are receiving, the figures about that new variant of the virus. Although what we just heard applies to england only, i think people in scotland and wales should keep an eye on the tv over the next couple of hours because i dont think england will be alone in tightening some of its restrictions over christmas. We are expecting state m e nts over christmas. We are expecting statements from the devolved governments of scotland and wales in the next few minutes or so. A few of the next few minutes or so. A few of the journalist asking questions, including our own Laura Kuenssberg, questioning the fact that the government knew of this variant some time ago, and indeed matt hancock stood up in the commons and talked about it on monday saying that it spreads far more quickly than the original covid 19, and yet we are getting these decisions now. People have made plans, christmas has basically been put on hold for pretty much everybody around the country. One wonders why it has taken such a long period of time, a number of days, to reach this conclusion that the country has to do something even more stringent than the previous suggestion. Do something even more stringent than the previous suggestionm do something even more stringent than the previous suggestion. It is afair than the previous suggestion. It is a fair question and a frustration thatis a fair question and a frustration that is felt in political circles, as well. We know that on wednesday, for example, at Prime Ministers questions there were questions coming from the labour party about things not being tightened up, why christmas was not being potentially considerably scaled back. I think the answer that you would get from ministers is that the data they have seen over the last 24 hours has really spooked them, quite frankly. We know there were hastily arranged conversations last night in downing street. There were more this morning. It is on the back of that that this decision to really scale back christmas and introduce that new tier 4 has been taken. I should just let you know, as well, just looking at the phone as the press conference is going on, some tory mps are frustrated, who think it is a sign that the system isnt working, who want a vote on whether this tier 4 it should be brought in, potentially even at the recall of parliament to discuss this new update and what is happening. I dont think that is necessarily going to happen, although it is not impossible. The big thing Everybody Needs to know if these changes will come in at midnight, regardless of the sum of the political criticism you hear over the next few hours. Undoubtedly a big change to what is happening in england, a big change to what the government thinks is necessary in england, and i think we are going to hear some pretty similar changes coming in scotland and wales in the next couple of hours, as well. Many thanks for that, nick headley, our Political Correspondent. Lets go to our medical editor fergus walsh, who can join us now. We heard patrick vallance, the chief scientific adviser, and so chris whitty, talk about this variant of covid 19, and also talk about just about this variant of covid 19, and also talk aboutjust how about this variant of covid 19, and also talk about just how virulent about this variant of covid 19, and also talk aboutjust how virulent it is in the way that it spreads within the host community. We have to be careful about the terminology because this variant doesnt make the virus more virulent, which would suggest it causes more lethal infection. It simply means it spreads faster. Up to 70 more rapid spreads faster. Up to 70 more rapid spread than the existing variant. That means that they think the r number, the rate at which the virus spreads, could increase from 1. 14. 2, by spreads, could increase from 11 12, by 0. 4. Spreads, could increase from 1. 1 1. 2, by 0. 4. Really quite a dramatic increase in transmissibility. Now, dramatic increase in tra nsmissibility. Now, the dramatic increase in transmissibility. Now, the do mutate all the time, and in fact coronavirus is a much more stable virus than, say, influenza, because with that you know we need a new vaccine every year because it changes its outer clothes substantially so that it can evade the immune system. Now, it looks like these variants do not affect and will not affect the vaccine and its ability to give protection, although further checks are being done but it is the sheer speed at which this new variant is spreading. It was first identified in kent in late september and now accounts for around six in ten cases and in east england. The east of england. It is really moving very fast and has been found in other parts of the uk, as well. The Prime Minister very pointedly made the case that virulence did not mean more lethality and did not mean that anyone who contracted the virus in this new format would become more ill, but the World Health Organization has been informed of this. Are there any other countries experiencing this mutation . Yes, there have been other countries. Germany, for example, some of the countries have had this mutation. It looks like it started somewhere in kent, probably a chance mutation because what happens with viruses, when they go from one person to another, every time they come into contact, there are slight changes as they replicate. It was probably a transmutation and then every now and again there comes a change that makes them. Gives them an evolutionary edge, and those changes then go far and wide. Now, often, something reassuring to say, is that often a virus that is more transmissible actually loses a bit of its lethality, but there are tests being done on human cell cultures at porton down in wiltshire that will give us chapter and verse on that. But at the moment, although hospitalisation rates are going up, there is no suggestion that this variant, and there are 23 genetic changes that have been found within it, causes any more serious disease. But the longer the virus is out there in a general in the population, the more it has the opportunity to mutate and to become a different variant and another and another. Thats right. And if we go back to the beginning of the year and the first coronavirus coming out of wuhan, you can track probably about two changes per month from every virus that originated in china. Around two per month. But as they have spread beyond china it actually counts 2000 and thousands of mutations per year. We really shouldnt worry. It sounds very scary, mutating virus, but the viruses mutate all the time and it is simply the transmissibility of this which is alarming, but not the actual disease it causes, although of course for a minority of people it is very, very serious indeed. 0k, well leave it there. Thank you for that. Our medical editor, fergus walsh. We will get more reaction from the leader of the opposition, sir keir starmer. The infection rates are going up very, very fast and so something has to be done and we support the steps the government has put in place. But millions of families across the country will be heartbroken by this news, having their Christmas Plans ripped up. And im really frustrated because i raised this with the Prime Minister on wednesday and he dismissed that and went on to tell people to have a merry Little Christmas. Only three days later to rip up their plans and i think the British Public is entitled to more decisive leadership than that. They are getting confusion when they need certainty. A week before christmas, has this come too late . We challenged the Prime Minister on wednesday about this and he pushed back that challenge and told people to have a merry Little Christmas and the three days later he is ripping up the three days later he is ripping up their plans. Families will be heartbroken across the country as a result of this. Would you say the way this has been gone about this shambolic . The Prime Minister has a habit of pushing away challenge, refusing to see a problem until it later confronts him, and i think lots of families will be saved, how has this come about at the th lots of families will be saved, how has this come about at the 11th hour in this way . Do you think people will follow the rules . It is very important that whatever the rules are, everybody follows them. So i say follow the government advice, whatever it yet you are in, follow the rules. It is very important that we all say that, the government and opposition. What about having one wheel and suddenly changing in such a short time . I think the heartbreak of millions of families will be, you know. Its made much greater by the fact that the Prime Minister, only three days ago, was saying, have a merry Little Christmas when we we re have a merry Little Christmas when we were challenging him on this, now to say im going to rip up your plans. Sir starmer giving his reaction to the Prime Ministers comments. We are getting some news in from wales. They are going into lockdown, this is a level four, at midnight tonight. Christmas relaxation has been dropped to just one day, a similar move to what the Prime Minister announced for england. Christmas relaxation has been dropped down to just one day, thatis been dropped down to just one day, that is Christmas Day itself, and wales will go into lockdown, alert level for macro at midnight tonight. Lets get more perspective from our Health Editor. One thing at me was the rise in hospitalisations because of this variant, up by a third in hospitalisations because of this variant, up bya third in in hospitalisations because of this variant, up by a third in many cases. 62 in london. Yeah, we can look at some of the slides that were shown in the downing street Media Briefing which includes that, but the overall perspective was provided with a slide from the office for National Statistics, and that shows the growth in infections. The ons cove rs the growth in infections. The ons covers the community, notjust people who have tested and gone for a test. It does random testing of people who maybe are asymptomatic so it is seen as a very good guide. You can see how it reaches a peak in novemberjust as can see how it reaches a peak in november just as lockdown can see how it reaches a peak in novemberjust as lockdown in england is being imposed and it comes down during lockdown and then starts going back again, and that is the thing, the key factor that has been a cause for concern in whitehall. Going on to those hospital admissions, and you see particularly in the areas concerned, london, the east of england, the south east, going into tier 4, east of england, the south east, going into tier4, how east of england, the south east, going into tier 4, how rapidly they have gone up and you see a sharp increase in october and then into november, then they remained fairly stable. That was during the lockdown in england. Look what has happened since the end of that lockdown in early december, how rapidly they have gone up. That, according to chris whitty and sir patrick vallance, is down to this new variant. A very steep rise in hospital admissions, and that is what is putting intense pressure on hospitals in these areas. Of course it isa hospitals in these areas. Of course it is a different picture in other parts of england, as we head in different tiers. Hospital admissions are not rising so rapidly and have in fact been coming down in areas like the northwest. Finally, lets go on to see this comparison between the different parts of england. The dotted line shows case rates in areas which are not going into tier 4and areas which are not going into tier 4 and you can see how they go up during lockdown, but then begun to stabilise and come down at the end of the english lockdown, they come right back down, and then they start writing again from early december once lockdown has ended and we have gone into the tier system. But they have not gone up nearly so much as that bold line of air, which is the areas of london, southeast and east, which are going into tier 4. You can see they do not rise quite as rapidly in november, they start coming down during the english lockdown, then they go up really, really steeply. And that, once again, is driven, we are told by the experts, by this new variant of the virus. Many thanks for that. A short while ago the Prime Minister confirmed that london and the south east would now face new tier four restrictions which were similar to the november lockdown. We must, im afraid, look again at christmas and, as Prime Minister, it is my duty to take difficult decisions, to do what is right to protect the people of this country. Given the early evidence we have on this new variant of virus, the potential risk it poses, it is with very heavy heart i must tell you we continue with christmas as planned. In england, those living in tier 4 areas should not mix with anyone outside their own household at christmas. Though support bubbles will remain in place for those at particular risk of loneliness or isolation. Across the rest of the country, the christmas rules allowing for up to three households to meet will now be limited to Christmas Day only, rather than the five days as previously set out. As before, there will be no relaxation on the 31st of january, so people must not break the rules at new year. They must not break the rules at new year, very, very important to emphasise that. I know how much emotion people invest in this time of year and how important it is, for instance, for grandparents to see their grandchildren, for families to be together. So i know how disappointing this will be. But we have said throughout this pandemic that we must and we will be guided by the science. When the science changes, we must change our response. When the virus changes its method of attack, we must change our method of attack, we must change our method of attack, we must change our method of defence. And as your Prime Minister i sincerely believe there is no alternative open to me. Without action evidence suggest infections would soar and hospitals become overwhelmed and many thousands more would lose their lives. I want to stress that we are not alone in this fight or in taking these types of decisions. Many of our european friends and neighbours are being forced to take similar action. We are working closely with devolved administrations to protect people in every part of the uk and now there is real hope that we will soon be weight of this virus. That prospect is growing with every day that passes and every vaccine dose is administered. As you know the uk was the first country in the western world to stop using a clinically approved vaccine and so please if the nhs contacts you dont get your vaccine and join the three and across the uk who already have had their first across the uk who already have had theirfirst dose. Across the uk who already have had their first dose. Across the uk who already have had theirfirst dose. Do get your vaccine for that christmas this year will be very different but weve got to be realistic. We are sacrificing the chance to see our loved ones this christmas so that we have a better chance of protecting their lives so we can see them at future christmases. And sure as night follows day we will beat this virus and defeat it and reclaim our lives. Good evening. In the past hour borisjohnson has announced a new tougher level of coronavirus restriction in england, after scientists said a mutation of covid 19 was spreading rapidly in london, the south east and east of the country. The variant is said to be much more contagious but doesnt cause more serious illness. From midnight tonight, tier 4 restrictions will apply in all current tier 3 areas in the south east including london, kent, buckinghamshire, berkshire, and hertfordshire. Thats more than 17 milllion people