The lockdown but well have to wait until sunday to find out how the Prime Minister intends to do it. No easing of the lockdown in scotland for now. The first minister says to do so would be very, very risky indeed. I will not be pressured into lifting restrictions prematurely, before i can be as certain as i can be that we will not be risking a resurgence of infection rates. Analysis of deaths from coronavirus in the uk reveals that the risk of dying from covid i9 among some ethnic groups is significantly higher. And the coronavirus Contact Tracing app, being trialled on the isle of wight, goes live to the general public today. Good afternoon and welcome to viewers on bbc one and the bbc news channel, ahead of todays daily Coronavirus Briefing from downing street. Thats taking place at 5pm, with the foreign secretary dominic raab leading proceedings. First, the bank of england is warning that the coronavirus pandemic will push the uk economy into its deepest recession on record. Unemployment could more than double and analysts say the economy will shrink 14 this year, even if the lockdown is relaxed injune. Thats the sharpest annual contraction for 300 years. But there is some cause for hope. The bank says the uk economy will bounce back. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister has told the cabinet the government will advance with maximum caution when deciding about any easing of lockdown measures. We will have to wait until sunday evening for borisjohnson to set out his plans having signalled some measures may be relaxed from next week. Scotlands first minister, Nicola Sturgeon has said she wont be easing the countrys lockdown measures for now, and to do so would be very, very risky indeed. This afternoon, nhs england has announced a further 383 people have died in hospitals in england after testing positive for covid i9. In scotland another 59 people have died. Another 18 deaths were recorded in wales. And four people have died in hospital in Northern Ireland. Our first report is from our economics correspondent andy verity. Unsold cars lined up at a former military airfield in upper heyford, oxfordshire, just one image from what is now expected to be the biggest recession since 1706. Since the shutdown began over six weeks ago, the evidence suggests Household Spending is down 30 , Company Sales are down 45 and Business Investment has halved. Modelling the impact of covid i9, the bank of englands working assumption is that the economy will shrink in the first half of this year by 30 . What it really means is obviously the very sharp sort of downturn we have had is a product of the situation we have been in now since march, and the restrictions that are in place, which affect obviously Economic Activity very severely. The interesting question then is of course, what is the path from here onwards going to look like . It is really only through until next summer and thereafter that activity comes fully back. Waiting for a recovery next year, though, may be too late for companies who only have enough cash to last weeks, not months. In bristols empty streets a successful small business, a Language School founded 32 years ago employing 64 staff, is trying to adapt its work online. But theres crippling uncertainty. Most of its business is done in the summer teaching foreign students english before they go to college. This year, its owner has no idea if theyll come or not. As you can imagine, we are entirely empty, our buildings are closed up, and as many staff as can be have been furloughed. We are trying to teach online to fulfil contractual commitments, but once those are done, we are unlikely to generate very much income and certainly not enough income to keep staff going or to keep the buildings open. Whats extraordinary about the recession were going through is notjust the speed and its scale, but that governments around the world ordered it. The big question, though, is that when they want their economies to bounce back, will it be as easy to get what they wished for . The bank of englands modelling assumes that unemployment willjump to 9 in spite of Government Support for businesses, but will come right down again as the economy recovers and grows back by 15 . But is that realistic . Theres quite a few reasons why that may not pan out. We are going to have to have social distancing measures and other restrictions in the economy for some time and of course it is the uncertainty that you referred to in your news report. So i think the bank is probably erring on the optimistic side in terms of how 00 06 04,1000 00 06 05,512 quickly the economy will rebound. The bank of england is at pains to emphasise it cant forecast the economy right now theres too much uncertainty. But it can be much surer of predicting the biggest recession on record than it can of predicting an extraordinarily rapid recovery. Andy verity, bbc news. Lets talk to the conservative mp mel stride now. Hes chair of the treasury select committee. Thanks so much forjoining us on bbc news. This intervention by the governor of the bank of england comes at an interesting time because we know that the government is thinking about very gently in some sort of way easing lockdown measures. Where do you stand on how far you go to try and get the economy going again . In terms of lockdown, i think we need to ease out as quickly as we possibly can. But we need to be careful, because what we mustnt do is to end up in a situation where the r number which we have all been talking about trips back over one, and then the virus sta rts back over one, and then the virus starts to search again, because that would be economically extremely painful. Not least because i think businesses would then be fearful that the next time the government tried to come out of lockdown, we might have to retreat again and that would be uncertainty. The r number is how quickly the virus gets transmitted and if that goes up, that means that the virus spreads more rapidly. What is the government to do . What about the politics here . Because at the moment, there are 6 million employees who are being paid by the state, and that cannot go on indefinitely, can it . No, it cant. And in fact the cost of the scheme for the 6 million, the furlough scheme, is 6 million a month, more than we are spending on the entire nhs budget. Before the virus struck, the government would talk about a i oi the government would talk about a i or two and if we could afford it on the nhs budget, and this is a full 100 , so it cannot go on forever, it will have to be unwound. The challenge will be from the chancellor to be able to identify those sectors and businesses who, with a little additional help, might manage to hang on and survive and grow, as opposed to those who do not need the help or those, who sadly, in the new economic environment that will be emerging before we get a vaccine, will struggle very hard indeed to survive at all. You think the government should be more discriminating about which businesses it supports . discriminating about which businesses it supports . I think in a senseit businesses it supports . I think in a sense it needs to, try and identify those sectors where Additional Support is going to sustain those businesses. Clearly at the moment, there is little value in supporting those companies, for example, who really dont need support. Because there is only a finite amount of resource to go around, and it really needs to be very firmly directed towards those businesses where it will have the most impact and where we can start to see job creation and start to see newjobs coming into the economy. Thats quite a brutal message, isnt it, for those businesses who may have to stay shut for quite a long time now. And as you say, who may not open up again. There is a lot that the government can do, and theres a lot that the government has been doing to try and support the economy through this period. But as we have discussed, there is a limit to the amount that can be thrown at this, and therefore, i think the government needs to be in the business of making sure that it provides support in the most effective way possible, and by effective, i mean supporting the economy and those parts of the economy which are going to be able to growjobs so that as we come through this and out of it, and beyond, we get unemployment down as quickly as possible. Because there are sadly going to be manyjobs which do not survive and we need to generate newjobs for which do not survive and we need to generate new jobs for those which do not survive and we need to generate newjobs for those people to ta ke generate newjobs for those people to take up. So given everything you have said, do you share the bank of englands relative optimism that after a recession, and after high unemployment rates, the economy will in fact bounce back . Do you think thats right . I think it is undoubtedly the case that the economy, when it hits the bottom and sta rts economy, when it hits the bottom and starts to come up, it will start to rise fairly quickly. But its a case of whether it gets back to where it was before, and how quickly that actually occurs. I think theyre the risks are probably on the downside with these forecasts, it appears to me, as time goes on, that the chance ofa me, as time goes on, that the chance of a quick and rapid v shaped recovery as it is often referred to is probably diminishing. That doesnt mean that we cannot come back reasonably quickly and the art the government will be to ensure it fits in the right measures and continuing to do the right thing to support the parts of the economy that can do the heavy lifting as we come through and out the other side. Many thanks for your time, mel stride, chair of the treasury select committee. The Prime Minister has told the cabinet today that nothing will be done that risks a second peak when deciding on easing existing coronavirus lockdown measures and that any changes would be made with maximum caution. Borisjohnson will set out his plans at 7pm on sunday, with speculation that the governments stay at home message is set to be modified. While its likely more Outdoor Activities will be permitted, most of the current lockdown measures are expected to remain in place. Wales, Northern Ireland and scotland have their own powers to lift or keep restrictions. And today, scotlands first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has said that any easing of lockdown restrictions there would be very, very risky. Heres our Political Correspondent, iain watson. Is the tide turning on the lockdown . Six weeks in, and the governments finding that it was easier to impose restrictions than to lift them. Theres been strong compliance with the measures, and some people are wary about going back to work while the virus remains active. Secretary of state, when will you start easing the lockdown measures . Although the lockdown in england has been formally reviewed by ministers today, well have to wait until sunday for the Prime Minister to set out the direction of travel. This is a message from the government. But one familiar feature of the lockdown will change this weekend. The government will modify its straightforward and successful stay home slogan. To help save lives, stay home. But ministers are stressing that any move to lift the lockdown will be gradual. Id really urge caution. The safest thing to do, at the moment, with this virus and the way it spreads, is wherever you can to stay home. Yes, get out and get that daily exercise, and if you cant work from home and can work in safe circumstances then the guidelines are there for that very purpose, but we have got to continue on the process that we have had that we are doing everything that we can to ensure peoples safety. The Prime Minister told the commons that there could be some changes to the restrictions in england from monday, and one of the most likely alterations is to expand the range of Outdoor Activities that are allowed, so instead of simply exercising, you might be able to lounge around in the sunshine, but the key message from the government is this keep your distance, stay two metres apart, otherwise your new found freedom could be short lived. The devolved governments of scotland, wales, and Northern Ireland can decide for themselves the pace at which the lockdown is lifted, and scotlands first minister is concerned that the Prime Minister might not be cautious enough. I will not be pressured into lifting restrictions prematurely before i am as certain as i can be that we will not be risking a resurgence of infection rates. I particularly strongly believe that for us to drop the clear, well understood, stay at home message right now, could be a potentially catastrophic mistake. Moving away from lockdown, even gradually, brings big logistical challenges, such as how to ensure social distancing on public transport while running enough services to get people back to work, and making workplaces safer. Labour says the governments has more work to do to convince people to return. The guidelines for different workplaces, they really need to be watertight, clear, and well understood, and there needs to be a process for dealing with any problems, because if workers dont have confidence that theyll be safe at work, and consumers dont have confidence that theyll be safe when they interact with different businesses, thats really going to hold back our recovery. So in england, one small step in lifting the lockdown could happen within days, but if theres any leap in infections, we could still be facing robust restrictions for months to come. Iain watson, bbc news, westminster. Joining me now is dr sanjay patel. Hes the clinical lead in Infectious Diseases at the Royal College of paediatrics and child health. Doctor patel, a lot has been made of the fact that children have been by and large relatively untouched by covid i9, has that been your experience . Most definitely, i think caddell children and adults have behaved very differently during this pandemic and i think we need to acknowledge that when we make decisions in terms of coming out of lockdown. And how should that pattern then informed those decisions . Well, it is clear that we cannot maintain the status quo and we do need a strategy which the government is working on and is being advised on by sage. But recognising that children have not got on well in generaljoin this pandemic means that we can really think seriously about School Reopening being one of the earlier measures we take in terms of reversing lockdown. Really, and is that despite the fact that we dont know whether children are spiders of the virus or how far they are spreaders of the virus . |i think that is a really good question. Anything we do need to be watched extremely closely and real time data, the use of Contact Tracing app is fundamentally important because we still dont have all the information we need to make such decisions. We still know that although children are being less severely affected than adults, there is data to suggest they are being infected less frequently as well. That is really interesting. In the hospitals where you work, how has this pandemic affected the sort of numbers of children that you are seeing . Well, we have definitely seen a sharp drop in the number of children presenting to hospital and the same goes for primary care, but that to some extent simply because less infections are spreading amongst children because we are in lockdown and there is less common in children because children are not being injured on sports day, at the weekend, etc. That is probably the main factor. And do you worry some children are not being brought to hospital because of fears they might, that hospitals might be infectious places . Absolutely, there is some suggestion thatis absolutely, there is some suggestion that is the case, we have tried really ha rd to that is the case, we have tried really hard to reassure parents that if their child is unwell, they need to bring them to hospital. We have got really robust systems to keep children separate from adults, they are not going to get infected if they come to hospital and we still have our service is open to look after children effectively and safely. 0k, dr sanjay patel, thanks so much for joining 0k, dr sanjay patel, thanks so much forjoining us. Thank you. My pleasure. People from afro caribbean backgrounds in england and wales are nearly twice as likely to die from coronavirus than white people thats according to new research by the office for national statistics. People from indian, bangladeshi and pakistani communities also had a significantly higher risk of dying. The government has launched a review into the issue. With me is our head of statistics, robert cuffe. Robert, this is an alarming finding, but also a complicated one. It is, absolutely, because we have to account notjust for every factor, that could be having an effect, but not just lumping everybody into one bame going and going individually, community by community. Lets look at the data for the different communities being analysed today. We see, as we said in the introduction, black communities, black women here, and largely the same for black men, they are almost twice as likely to die with covid i9 as black men. The increases are not as large from a bangladeshi or Indian Community but still significantly above the risk of white communities, about 60 . But indian communities, it is about 40 higher, so a little bit up. But the chinese people, there is not the difference is that significant. The effect is strongest for black people, but notjust them affected by this. How have these figures been put together . Have demographic and social and economic factors been affected in or not . They have, some of them, and you get a very different picture depending on what factors you take into account. We can show the different a nalyses to account. We can show the different analyses to give people a sense of that. There are big differences between each community that could drive the risk. If you just take account of age because the white population is generally older than the minority ethnic population and the risk if you are black is four times hi