Youre watching beyond 100 days live from des moines iowa, where democrats are nervous ahead of their first election vote. Their number one concern is to beat donald trump in november so will tonights poll tell us who has the best chance of doing so . There are a lot of candidates, a lot of money has been spent, the polls are tight and the stakes are high. So what is a caucus anyway . Think of it as part political Cocktail Party part strategic game of risk. A veteran organizer gives us a run through. Is the bit where i start saying, come to me, i have ben and gerrys . Or is this the bit where i take to sam, you are not viable, but if you join me, the two of us could be
viable. Also on the programme. After the attack in south london yesterday by sudesh amman, the second by a man convicted of terror offences in recent months. The government announces emergency changes to the law on sentencing. Chinas Party Leadership admits failure is in its response to the corona virus epidemic. The number of cases is doubling every five days. Hello and welcome to des moines, iowa, in the mid west of the usa where christian and i are ahead of tonights caucuses. Swamped with candidates, journalists, politicaljunkies and an awful lot of campaign money. Tomorrow, theyll all be gone, moving on to the next election deadline. But for tonight des moines iowa is ground zero in americas political world. Iowa is important because its first not first because its important. Its sparsely populated, overwhelmingly white, doesnt even send many delegates
to the National Convention but it matters. It matters because all the candidates know that if they do well here, they get a lot of media attention, and more importantly, a lot of money. Heres nick bryant. The road to the white house passes first through iowa, one of the more rural states of america, one of the whitest states in america. But since the turn of the century, the democrat who has won here has gone on to become the partys president ial nominee. The next president of the United States. The front runner here is a 78 year old senator feted like a pop idol by the young. Bernie sanders is a one time socialist who believes radicalism is the only way to defeat donald trump, a Political Revolution of the left. No other candidate in iowa has pulled a crowd as big as this. Let us go forward together. Let us defeat donald trump. Cheering let us transform this country. The former Vice President , joe biden, is a soft jazz sort of candidate, easy listening moderation that appeal especially to the old. Eight years of donald trump could fundamentally change who we are. I really mean it, in a significant way. Hes an uninspiring speaker but comes alive when face to face. How are you . Great to see you. Genial, empathetic, he reckons likeability means electability. And hes selling himself as the candidate best able to beat President Trump. Mr biden, a quick word for the bbc. The bbc im irish. Senator Elizabeth Warren was sat all last week in the trial of donald trump, so no wonder shes keen to make up for lost campaigning time. Shes another candidate of the left, another woman trying to shatter the most resilient Glass Ceiling in politics. This moment is our moment to dream
big, fight hard and win. And Pete Buttigieg wants to become americas first openly gay occupant of the white house. Hes the youngest candidate in the race. For the past 60 years, its been moderate democrats whove made it to the white house kennedy, johnson, carter, clinton and obama. But in these changed political times, when normal rulesjust dont seem to apply, will voters here opt for the radicalism of Bernie Sanders . Its a battle for the soul of the party, over who is the best candidate to beat donald trump. Nick bryant, bbc news, iowa. The latest polls show a very, very tight race in iowa with senator Bernie Sanders and former Vice President joe biden at the front of the pack. gfx the is a look at the real clear politics poll of polls
and while Bernie Sanders looks like he has an advantage that doesnt mean hes end the night with the most delegates. Erin murphy is a journalist covering iowa politics and government and hejoins us now. Youve been travelling round the state for the past year with these candidates. When you talk to iowa voters, what is their main concern . You talk about issues of the environment coming up a lot, but the main concern is finding the right candidate that they believe will beat donald trump in the fall. That is the primary concern, the number one motivating factor. The thing about that is, its a personal choice, and that means Something Different to everyone. It is not health care, immigration, jobs and the economy this time . You hear a lot of talk about that and candidates ask about it. They want to hear about those policies, but the number one driving factor
ultimately leading these people to pick a candidate is who can be donald trump. Katty is an old timer, and this is my first time, it is so local, which is refreshing. The rest of the campaigns are about how much money you have, but here, you get real, genuine face time with candidates. They talk about iowa is the first state in the nominating process. The people who defend iowas role in that say, you have to come here and you cant just throw that say, you have to come here and you cantjust throw up a bunch of money on tv ads. People here expect to see you in person and multiple times. The old joke is, i havent made up my mind yet, ive only seen each of the candidates twice. The expectation is you have to come here, sit in the coffee shops and libraries and schools and talk to
people face to face. Libraries and schools and talk to people facetoface. As christian so diplomatically put it, i am a vetera n diplomatically put it, i am a veteran of Iowa Caucuses. I sense less energy and enthusiasm in this round, more less energy and enthusiasm in this round , more nervousness. Less energy and enthusiasm in this round, more nervousness. You less energy and enthusiasm in this round, more nervousness. You put it right. There is interest and enthusiasm in the party, but you are right, there is concern, and that gets back to my point of the primary motivating factor for these iowa democrats. They dont want to mess this up. You talk to a lot of people, they are still undecided, even today, going into the caucuses. Thats the amazing thing about tonight, there are so many outcomes here. There are three or four candidates who could finish top, but tomorrow, some of those could be facing questions about whether they are going to drop out. If anyone tells you they know what is happening tonight, they are lying, either intentionally or because they dont know better. It could go any number of different ways. Anyone of
them could win and they all have a ground game to do it. It isjust about that choice you talked about. That has really heightened the sta kes that has really heightened the stakes in this for them. Erin murphy, honest enough to tell us he does not know what will happen tonight. Thank you forjoining us. Shall we talk about where we are . Will we see any of the candidates here tonight . No, we will see lots of american television. All of the networks will be broadcasting from here, and up on the screen behind us, there will be all of the results as they come through. The caucusing takes place elsewhere, and the candidates have victory or commiseration parties. Its confusing. Caucusing is confusing. Its not like voting. You dontjust turn up and tick a box. Think of it as a political Cocktail Party, without the cocktails, mixed with a ruthless game of risk. Caucus goers enter their facility, a school gym or a church hall, stand in the area marked off for their preferred candidate and then get counted. So long as a candidate has 15 of the people in the room, they are considered viable. But if they fall short of 15 , they are not viable, and thats when the tactical back and forth gets going. Oh, and caucusing is public, so everyone knows who youre voting for. To help you understand this pretty unique exercise in democracy, we enlisted the support of veteran caucus organizer tom fey. Lets say you are viable, ok . Yeah. But katty and sam are in the wind. What do we do . Is this the bit where i start saying, come on over here, katty, ive got ben and jerrys . Absolutely. Is this the bit where i say to sam, luke, sam, youre not viable, but if you join me, the two of us together, we could be viable . You come to me, sam. Dont go to him, hes already fine. Yeah, but im going to the white house, so why dont you come over here . But we are more aligned on policy, sam. You like what i do. Sam, i think you should come to us, for sure. We are right on all the issues that are important to america. Im not picking between parents, so im going. Im going with tom. Thank you so much. You made a wise decision. So, this means that im left, tom, and im not viable. I know. So it isjust the two of you groups now. You need to think about, long and hard, which candidates the best candidate for your ideas. Well, obviously, thats an easy choice. Im joining tom, too. Where are you going . See, now we are more powerful than you. Team spirit the key to this is, it shows a real. It proves to the public in iowa
and across the country which candidate has the best organisation for grassroots politics, and thats where its at shoe leather on the ground. And you cant beat the iowa caucus for that. By by the way, we won. Yeah, ok what i didnt realise until i had spoken to one of our correspondence today is that if youve got a really good ground game, you could lend some of your people to one of the candidates to lock in their supporters, so lets say third need supporters and you lent her a few . Iowa is famous for that kind of tactical shenanigans, if you want to call them that, and a lot of horse trading goes on at that time when
candidates are not viable. It is fun going, because you get the initial round, and then everybody is Walking Around saying, hey, come with me. The issue with it being an open thing, i have had caucus goers saying, i wanted to caucus for so and so, but my sons basketball coachis so and so, but my sons basketball coach is caucusing for someone else, soi coach is caucusing for someone else, so i want to curry favour with the coach. It is like a Preferential Vote system. You have your preferred candidate, second and third candidates, and you going on the night and see what looks viable. In other news, the uk government has promised fundamental changes to the way that they deal with convicted terrorists following yesterdays knife attack in south london. A 20 year old man was shot dead by police after he stabbed two people with a stolen knife and a fake bomb strapped to his body. He had only recently been released from prison halfway through a term he was serving for possession of terrorist documents and the spreading of terrorist propaganda. Do the programmes work, or is there a lwa ys do the programmes work, or is there always a risk that the most dangerous men game the system . The government said it would stop automatic release of offenders halfway through their sentences. Here is lucy manning, who has been taking a look. This unfortunately is not the first time. The high street, forensic teams, Police Investigating an attack, a former prisoner using his freedom to try and kill. Yesterday, it was streatham. Plainclothed officers, guns drawn, have shot a man after he steals a knife and start stabbing others. They have had sudesh amman under surveillance, so more officers quickly arrive, one on a motorbike. One of the armed officers
approaches him as he lies on the ground wearing a fake suicide vest. Get back, they shout. A surveillance officer uses his armed colleagues for cover. They start to clear the street. People rush to help the injured, blood on the pavement. Start moving backwards, very quickly please. A man and a woman were stabbed, both are recovering. A shopkeeper was running out and shouting he had stolen something. Then it happened really quickly, lots of people running and then we heard three bangs. I heard two shots. I noticed the policemen had guns on them. The third police officer
was next to his side and bleeding. And all i could think was, he is going to die in the middle of the streets. Sudesh amman had only been released from prison ten days ago, automatically let out halfway through his three year sentence for terrorism offenses. He pledged allegiance to Islamic State and had manuals about knife attacks. Amman lived at this bail hostel around a mile from the attack. Because he was under active counterterror surveillance, the authorities thought he was possibly one of the most dangerous people in the country, so why was he living behind these gates, rather than behind bars . Officers searched the hostel,
removing evidence. The Police Stopped this attack but how will the politicians prevent it . New emergency laws. De radicalising people is a very, very difficult thing to do. There is a big psychological barrier that people find it hard to get back over. And thats why i stress the importance of the custodial option. And that is why i have come to the end of my patience with the idea of automatic Early Release. They are let out of prison, but the public is not out of danger. We arejoined by an we are joined by an adviser on de radicalisation policy. Under the new legislation, terror prisoners would not be allowed to be released until they had served two thirds of
their sentence, and they will have to appear before a parole board. Do you think that will solve the problem . It might solve a bit of it, but i dont think it will solve the entire problem, because if this individual had completed his sentence, he would have been let out, and so what we saw in streatham at the weekend would have been delayed by a mere 18 months, so i think we have a problem with de radicalisation, as the Prime Minister put it. We know this individual was intent on dying as a martyr, which involve killing innocent people, and so we do need to think much more radically than the government is currently thinking about how we deal with these people. We need a process of some form of positive vetting before they are allowed out, whether on parole or at the end of the sentence. There is clearly a big role here for the pa role clearly a big role here for the parole board. They have issued a
statement tonight, saying they understand the governments plans. The independent parole board will not direct the release of an offender, they say, unless they are satisfied. What sort of people need to sit on that panel . Not so much the people sitting on the panel, its the education and training of that panel. What we need to appreciate is that at the moment all our programmes of de radicalisation, and all our assessment procedures, are based on evidence based research. That research is academic, largely from a psychology background, which is good, but it is not complete. We must also recognise a very important thing, which i dont think anyone has talked about so far, which is that this Research Based policy takes about four or five years before the evidence tra nslates five years before the evidence translates itself into policy. We know that terrorism is evolving. The threat we are discussing today didnt exist about 12 months ago, so
we have to have a much fresher approach. We need to combine the policies which are based on Academic Research and Civil Society initiatives and add to that other skills such as those involving deception, people who practice deception, people who practice deception, involving security based threat analysis. All of those skills have to be transferred to the people that sit on the board so that they can makea that sit on the board so that they can make a much more accurate judgment of an individuals fitness to return to society. So, are there countries that are getting this right . Countries we could learn things from . There are certainly countries that claim they are getting it right. Whether they are or not is a different issue. De radicalisation is very much context specific, and these programmes are context specific. Some countries select people for de radicalisation programmes, those that they believe can be de radicalised, so they are eliminating a proportion of hard core individuals eliminating a proportion of ha rd core individuals anyway. Eliminating a proportion of hard core individuals anyway. And even where they do have successes, we need to learn from them, but i think we need to learn from them in context. What works in denmark and saudi arabia or singapore doesnt necessarily work in the uk. I come back to my point about the fact that it is an evolving threat, and the uk has very much been on the edge of the evolution of threat. You are based in the us. Around 2006, 2007, i dont remember exactly when, white house officials contacted me to help them with a research programme, and them with a research programme, and the question was, in 2007, why is there a problem of home grown radicalisation in the uk and europe and not in the us . Of course, the us
has moved on from that and recognises that it has a home grown problem. At that time, it didnt. Different countries evolve the threat differently, and the programmes are different. So, we really need to look at uk specific programmes, borrowing wherever possible from lessons abroad. Doctor ashraf, thank you very much for that. More on the caucasus. Erin was mentioning earlier the money that is involved in iowa. It has become an expensive proposition trying to win here. Democratic contenders have spent 61 million on campaigning here. They are trying to win the support ofjust 170,000 here. They are trying to win the support ofjust170,000 caucus goers, and if you do the maths, they are spending on average 355 per voter. It is a lot, and to give it international context, compare it to the uk. In the 2017 election, all
spending was around 54 million among all the parties. Divide that by the 32 million votes cast, it was 1. 67 per voter. Bargain basement democracy we arejoined by 1. 67 per voter. Bargain basement democracy we are joined by a university of iowa professor of political science, tim hagel. Is all the money worth it . Well, we think so. I wou