For more than a0 years, and although the Prime Minister famously said brexit means brexit, and no deal is better than a bad deal, we still dont really know what life outside the eu will look like. What will our Trade Relationship be with our closest neigbours . And whats the future for eu citizens living and working here . Well try and answer some of your questions about britains exit from the eu. With me is our economics editor, kamal ahmed. Oliver illott, Senior Researcher at the thinktank the institute for government, which works to make whitehall more effective. And the uk immigration lawyer natasha chell, partner at Laura Devine Solicitors in london. It would be great if we could rehearse all of this, wouldnt it . lets make a start. We will try to look at all of the different aspects if we can. The first question, oliver, we will start with you. What will happen if there is no deal at the end of two years . If we cant agree terms with the other 27 members . Well, if there is no deal at the end of two years, then we are out, that is the process we have started today. We have started the countdown timer. And if there is no deal by marge 2019 march 2019, the way it is drafted in the eu treaties that our connection to europe simply ceases to apply. That is problematic because the connections support things that we are used to doing here in the uk, and it is a scenario that both sides are trying to avoid. All sorts of work will go on to put legislation in place, assuming there is a deal, but working it a bit blind because you dont know what that deal is going to look like. There is a lot of work to be done to secure rights of European National is currently in the uk at the moment. That seems to be a priority for the government. Notjust that seems to be a priority for the government. Not just European Nationals here but also for british to dozens in europe. Oliver, for a lot of people, leaving the eu is the end of many, many years of campaigning, it is what some people have wa nted campaigning, it is what some people have wanted for a very long time. But, once on the outside of the eu if we dont really like it very much everything, hold on, we would have been better thinking, will we be able to rejoin and what with that process by like . Technically, yes. The eu has a very well established process forjoining, they call that access. There is nothing in the rules around joining that prohibits you from so if you have already been a member. Technically we could rejoin. I think probably politically that would be a difficult sell. At the moment, the uk has a bespoke relationship with europe and we pay a lot of less in as contributions, we arent members of the euro. If we we re we arent members of the euro. If we were to rejoin there is a Question Mark about whether we would join on exactly the same terms. Politically it feels like were a long way from that. Wouldnt we be in courage to join the euro, if it still exists . |j think join the euro, if it still exists . think the lesson in europe is the rule is laid down and there are other rules as they are interpreted. We are probably talking many years into the future and it is probably not fair to say at this stage exactly what an Accession Process for the uk would look like. We dont know what is going to happen in two yea rs, know what is going to happen in two years, never mind longer than that. Come, how is the rest of the eu going to be affected by brexit, donald tusk said it is not a reason to rejoice. There is the political shock to this long term project that was built in the ruins of the Second World War to end conflict in europe and to support Economic Growth and, toa and to support Economic Growth and, to a large extent, it has been successful in that. I think there has been an economic shock, there is a feeling of economic shock across europe. Businesses are worried, britain is the second largest economy in the European Union and was an important player in the European Union. We were quite reform minded, ithink European Union. We were quite reform minded, i think a lot of countries like germany and sweden and poland liked the fact that britain was in the European Union, a little bit sceptical of the European Union, not the same sort of gung ho, pro federalist approach of france for example. I think that balance was quite important to the European Union. I think the fact is that the eu feels that it has been negatively affected by britain saying it wants to leave. But what it has done on the contrary side to that is it has sort of giving the eu that notion of, we need to pull together now. And we will deal with britain as the eu 27, the other 27 nations. And it has given them that sort of burning platform idea, this is a real existential threat to europe therefore we must pull together. Most of the polling has suggested that since britain now stitt was leaving the European Union, actually pro european sentiment has slightly gone up pro european sentiment has slightly gone up across pro european sentiment has slightly gone up across europe since britain announced. Although there is the political and economic shock, to some parts of the eu this could be quite a good sort of gelling factor against further moves towards division. How will the rest of the eu cope, then, with a 38 drop in its income when we stop contributing, as many of those who wa nted contributing, as many of those who wanted to leave said that we would be spending all of this money which we could spend at home. And of course, usually come in new countries that come into the eu are net beneficiaries, arent they . Britain is a net contributor to the European Union, and certainly the countries like germany, the biggest contributor to the European Unions budget, that net contribution from britain was very, very important and im sure will be one of the big Negotiating Areas over the next two years. What does britain continue to pay into the European Union for access to the single market, for access to the single market, for access to the Customs Union . And for access to the Customs Union . And for access to the Customs Union . And for access to some of the regulatory bodies that written might want to retain and maintain operation with that britain might. That will be one of the big debates. The issue is that britain is a net contributor, an important part of the European Union budget. And i think germany in particular will be pushing to ensure that there is some kind of deal with britain, but as part of that deal there is some form of contribution from britain into the European Union, although if there isnt, frankly, germany will be paying more. This probably is too oliver and, this was said to us via text. And come all. We should start making trade deals with commonwealth countries, if the eu dont like it, what are they going to do, expel us . We are going anyway . what are they going to do, expel us . We are going anyway . I think there are probably a few Things Holding the uk back. The first thing is, if you are about to launch into the process of doing lots of deals around the world, you want people to think you are the kind of person who sticks to the deals on contracts you have already signed. Breaching our arrangements with the eu by running around the world doing trade deals doesnt send the best signal to those people we are trying to do the deals with. It is also reflecting on the fact that many of these countries, you know, brazil, china, india, these fast growing economies, there is a reason why not many people have trade deals with them already and it is because it is very difficult to get trade deals with these people. You can think a lot of time and resources into that and not get very far. The uk has the eu has been negotiating with Brazilfor Over 20 years now. Talks have been going on with india over and over again and you dont get anywhere. Finally i think the latter consideration for the uk on this is, at the moment, it has access to over 50 European Free trade deals. It wont keep that access automatically, so where it is focusing its time and resources is in carrying over the deals that it does have and then it can turn its attention to the new deals. Theresa may made it very clear today that we arent law abiding country and the regulations and rules of being a memberof the eu regulations and rules of being a member of the eu is that you cant we are a member of the eu is that you cant we are a law abiding country. I agree about the complexity of doing those deals in any case. But i think it is absolutely right that if we we re it is absolutely right that if we were to try to go beyond what im sure to informal behind the scenes talks with many nations about the types of Trading Relationships we could have with them, to do anything formally add to launch that type of aggressive position at a time when we are, it sounds like to me today from the letter being quite consolatory, i think would be very negative message to the rest of europe and the rest of europe would react very robust least by garissa another text message. A lot of things are anonymous, people seem to not want to tell us who we are everybody says the eu will slap a 10 tariff on our goods going into europe, so why dont we just slept 10 going back the other way . And as we dont import more than we export, why does it cost them more than as . It isa why does it cost them more than as . It is a bit tit for tat . Why does it cost them more than as . It is a bit titfortat . Neither side want a tariff war, i dont think that would be seeing as being good for the economy of the uk or the economy of the rest of europe. Although, yes, we do import more than we export as a proportion, britains weight in europe is far lower than europess weight in britain. Although on the actual number, yes, that is correct. On the actual quantity, the proportion, britain is less important to europe than europe is to britain in terms of the imports and exports. I dont think either side of this debate over the next two years once this notion of a battle of a sense of conflict wants this notion. Whether it is over Tariff Barriers or nonTariff Barriers, rules and regulations. Both sides want to start on a good footing. If we were to approach it like this Text Question came in, i think that would sooii question came in, i think that would soon disperse and that would be a real problem for both sides. Just to jump real problem for both sides. Just to jump in, i think there is a technical point to be made about how parrots work in the world. There are rules that have been set out that we have all signed up to about how ta riffs have all signed up to about how tariffs work precisely deliver this kind of trade war. The World Trade Organisation says that if you have a 10 tariff on cars like the eu does come eu charged that 10 tariff on ca is come eu charged that 10 tariff on cars from All Over The World from india it is 10 , from russia it is , you treat everybody the same. If there is no deal between the uk and there is no deal between the uk and the eu, were not going to find an eu slapping 100 tariff on cars because it is not allowed to. Equally if there is no deal, it could not put a tariff on us because it would be treating people the same. If there is no deal, the 10 tariff on cars is where the eu is false to go, it is not a question of starting a trade war. Liam campbell, who was not afraid to tell us his name on twitter, sent us a question the Prime Minister said there will be no Scottish Referendum until the scots know what the brexit deal will be. Why was that kind of thinking not applied to the Eu Referendum, in other words, we think we want to leave, but we will make our real decision when we know what the terms of the deal would be and then we can pull back from it if we dont like it . We are all not a country with a rule book with referendums. Different referendums are set out in different ways. If you want to know why we went into the referendum in the way that we did, you will have two as David Cameron and that mps empowerment. We went into the Eu Referendum and voted without knowing what the new relationship would be. The parallel vote in scotland is voting to leave the uk without knowing what your relationship with the uk is going to be. That i think is the parallel that we would draw. In this referendum, David Cameron did have a deal of sorts. Of course you remember him rushing around european capitals saying, im going to get some kind of good deal to offer the British Public. There was some notion of limits on benefits for eu migrants coming here. Something around red tape. It was relatively limited. Something around red tape it was limited and not very convincing, frankly. There was a deal of sorts that was put to the British Public before the referendum. It was a deal on what kind of britain would remain in the European Union, rather than what kind of deal would we have if we said we were going to leave. Exactly as oliver says, the fact is that scotland wouldnt know the deal precisely would beat with the uk if it voted to leave the uk. Another question to do with scotland. If the uk has to pay this exit bill of 60 Billion Euros to the eu, if scotland we re billion euros to the eu, if scotland were then to leave the union, with the uk, would westminster, the rest of what remains of the uk, be able to claim some of that money back from scotland . To claim some of that money back from scotland . If scotland votes to leave the United Kingdom there would be exactly the same debate about what might be described as the divorce bill. There are huge liabilities, shared between the four, you know, Constituent Parts of the United Kingdom, scotland, england, Northern Ireland and wales, on things like the operation of government, pension liabilities, regulations. All of the same issues that were now all talking about in detail about the European Union and britains relationship with europe would be exactly what would be similarto would be exactly what would be similar to the ones that would be involved in any debate between scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom if scotland decides to leave. So there would be a debate about the divorce bill. I doubt the re st of about the divorce bill. I doubt the rest of the uk would try and claw back money that had already been paid to scotland. But certainly the fa ct paid to scotland. But certainly the fact that the uk contributes support to scotland under the Barnett Formula would become part of the debate about scotlands exit. That was another thing that those who said the union should stay together, scotla nd said the union should stay together, scotland couldnt afford to sit outside the uk. What would scotlands economic position by . That is hugely disputed, it depends to an expense on the price of oil, thatis to an expense on the price of oil, that is a huge part of scotlands economy and gdp. Scotlands deficit is substantially higher than the uks overall deficit. Some people suggest that scotlands economy is weaker in productivity and performance terms than the whole of the uk economy. But scotland is a highly educated, small nation with resources. It has a pretty developed Financial Services sector based around edinburgh and aberdeen and dundee. It has good industry, good manufacturing. It has oil. So there is nothing to say economically that scotland couldnt exist as an independent country. But unwinding itself from the rest of the uk would clearly be a very compensated exercise. Let us move on, thank you for now, and look at some of the Immigration Issue that clearly bound up Immigration Issue that clearly bound up in these deals with natasha chell, an immigration lawyer. Quite a few questions of a similar sort coming to us in various forms, e mailand coming to us in various forms, e mail and text. What will happen to eu nationals living and working and studying in the uk . Will we need a visa to travel . Will people be kicked out . First of our like to just reassure European National that nothing has changed. They have the right to remain in the uk, exercised their treaty rights, which include working, studying here, and many other rights under eu law. And that will remain the same until we leave. Those rights, however, once we leave, they will no longer apply. Law in the uk. So those eu nationals will have to seek permission under the Uk Immigration Act, like other currently non eu nationals have to seek permission to remain he