Transcripts For BBCNEWS BBC News Special 20201016 : comparem

between the eu and uk are "over". borisjohnson says the uk must prepare for a "no—deal" trade relationship at the end of the year. i concluded that we should get ready for january 1st with arrangements that are more like australia's, based on simple principles of globalfree trade. wales is facing a limited circuit—breaker lockdown which is expected to be announced in the next few days. good afternoon and welcome to viewers on bbc one. in the next few minutes we'll bring you the latest coronavirus briefing from the government, led by the prime minister, but first, lancashire has become the latest area in england to move into tier 3 of local restrictions, after local leaders agreed a deal with the government. the ‘very high‘ alert level means that those living in lancashire join the liverpool city region in not being able to mix with other households indoors or outdoors in hospitality venues or private gardens. pubs which aren‘t serving food will also close. it comes as the mayor of greater manchester, andy burnham, rejected plans for his area to move to the highest risk category, saying he wants more financial support for people affected. foreign secretary dominic raab responded by accusing mr burnham of "trying to hold the government over a barrel over money and politics." other regions moving through the tiers include london, essex, york and parts of surrey, derbyshire and cumbria, which will move to the high alert level from midnight, meaning different households are not allowed to mix indoors. from six o‘clock tonight, pubs and restaurants in northern ireland will close for the next four weeks. and the welsh government is considering imposing a ‘circuit—breaker lockdown‘ — a final decision will be announced on monday. here‘s our political correspondentjessica parker. beautiful beaches, iconic buildings. but blackpool, like all of lancashire, is moving to the highest tier of restrictions from tomorrow. like everybody else in tier 3, pubs and bars will close, but we managed to convince government that we‘ve got sufficient measures in place to monitor the performance of leisure centres and gyms, so at this stage they won‘t be closing but obviously we‘ve got to keep checking on them. for manchester, no destination has been arrived atjust yet. the mayor says plans for the area are flawed. the prime minister says... i am, i have to say, concerned about what is happening in manchester, where clearly the levels of infection are rising steeply, the levels of hospitalisation are rising steeply, and we do need to see action and, you know, you say i would much rather not impose things, i would much rather we were able to work out something together. but pressure continues on the prime minister‘s neighbour the chancellor for more financial support. one local leader in greater manchester says talks with the government have been respectful, but... there have not really been negotiations. the government has been very much in the position of saying this is what is on offer, take it or we will impose it, basically, and we have had to say, you haven't got evidence that these measures are effective and we have evidence that suggests they won't be and there is certainly not enough financial compensation for people who are put out of work, and for businesses. downing street wants buy—in from local leaders as it seeks to simplify the system with these local covid alert levels but the talks have proved far from smooth so the process of setting new restrictions for some areas has become messier and more complicated. and a warning from one leading scientist against taking too piecemeal an approach. what we don't want now is a fragmentation, confusion, one area or region or city pitched against another. i think that would be very, very damaging to public health and the ability of the country to respond. in lancashire, leaders say they have extra cash to help businesses. it is targeted action, ministers want to avoid a national lockdown. but that may provoke comparisons as different areas reach different deals. jessica parker, bbc news. and let‘s talk some more tojess now. as we wait for that briefing to get under way, it comes against this curious political backdrop, a real i’ow curious political backdrop, a real row between downing street and local leaders in greater manchester so does that set the scene for what we are expecting? yes, this is the second press conference that we will have from boris johnson this second press conference that we will have from borisjohnson this week. earlier officially announced this new tiered system which was all designed to try to simplify the system and in trying to do that, and to get buy—in from local leaders, it seems that the politics has become a little more complicated because essentially in some areas it has been difficult to reach agreement, for various reasons. where that summit leaders think chris dickens are going to far locally or these rotations are not negotiations at all -- rotations are not negotiations at all —— think restrictions are going too far. andy burnham raised concerns about the financial package on offer. the chancellor has promised at businesses will be forced to close and wages will be paid two thirds of these sellin but andy burnham says if you are on the minimum wage that‘s not enough and heaving support should go back to the kind of levels we saw in the first national lockdown. meanwhile we have heard lancashire is set to move into tier 3, the tightest set of restrictions, joining liverpool but some peculiarities are rising because tier 3 is supposed to be a basic level and then there is a negotiation over a tailored approach for different areas. for example, what you get in merseyside, gyms are shutting but soft play and car—boot sales can continue whereas in lancashire, gyms are staying open but soft play and car—boot sales are closing and joe anderson, the mayor of liverpool city, has said to date he is seeking urgent clarification as to why gyms in liverpool are having to close when they are not in lancashire. yes, it is hard to keep up. we will be back with you a little later but thank you very much. it appears that wales is facing a short lockdown — a so—called circuit breaker is expected to be announced in the next few days. the welsh government says there‘s a growing consensus that more measures are needed to control the virus. people in parts of the uk with high rates of covid—i9 are barred from travelling to wales from six o‘clock this evening. let‘s talk to wales‘ health and social care minister, vaughan gething. good afternoon. good afternoon. is ita good afternoon. good afternoon. is it a done deal, a so—called circuit breaker in wales? it is a clear possibility, we think it is likely to be needed. we are working through the detail of what it might look like. the advice has been published by sage, primarily directed to the uk government in england but our own welsh version, the technical advisory group, have looked at it for wales and they advise us, as does our chief medical officer and they all say this is something we will have to continue doing because the restrictions we currently have in force have not suppressed the virus far enough. and we don‘t want to see the same level of difficulty that colleagues in the north west of england are seeing before we are prepared to act. i‘m looking at a wide range of difficult choices about the length of time, how deep any restrictions might be crucially, the support we will provide to businesses and people in work during any form of a potential shutdown, and then a set of hopefully consistent national rules after that period because suppressing coronavirus is only one part of what we need to do. the next is that the gathering and a sense of national mission because we want to keep coronavirus at a low level so the nhs does not get overwhelmed and we don‘t see a large—scale loss of life through the winter. if there is a period, let‘s say two or three weeks, what do you do with that time? it is buying you time but what do you do with that window of opportunity? some of it is about making sure all of us understand what the rules will be afterwards because we need the public to buy into this. it‘s not about doing things for me or the nhs in particular, it‘s about doing this for you and your family, particular, it‘s about doing this for you and yourfamily, to keep them safe. and a level of rules about behaviour we can all understand and go along with because the level of contact people have in their own home is the biggest factor and we have to try to do something eve ryo ne and we have to try to do something everyone can live with. the other thing to get services ready, we have already had a piece of work rolled out in our nhs to protect non—covert activity to make sure that can still cope and make sure we‘re ready for the numbers through the winter of covid patients. —— non—covid activity. art testing service is doing a good job and getting to high numbers are people, 89% of all contacts were successfully contacted this week. we will see more people using that service so we can recruit and put more people into it and we also expect to have more testing available. it allows us to regather and to plan and have a bigger capacity in our system to deal with what is coming to ponder what we also want to see is what happens in the change after that as well but it is the consistency because if we do this, we would much rather not have to do it again before the end of the year and that set of consistent national guidelines which is be important to look forward to the end of the year and reckon now who they can spend the festive period with. and if there is a business owner watching you in wales who is trying to plan and prepare for this, what is your message to them about not only what they need to do but what support there will be if they need to close? there are two things pondered the first is that i understand it is an academy difficult time for everyone including if you run a business, if you are a work at —— incredibly difficult. the support for the uk government is changing and as you said earlier, from the ist of november, a less generous form of support will be available but it is only available if those businesses are legally required to close. we will have to close businesses to allow them to access that support. we are also looking at the resources of the welsh government has to support businesses, our finance and economy ministers are working with stakeholders in the economy to try to understand how we can design a system of support to help those businesses survive to make sure workers can still pay their bills. because if you are a low—paid worker in particular, two thirds of your normal pay is not enough to see you to the end of the week and most people on minimum wage don‘t have savings, they cannot access them and universal credit does not act quickly so the welfare system will not be the answer for people who don‘t live on the basis of having three orfour months don‘t live on the basis of having three or four months savings, that‘s not the reality of the world we live in. we are looking seriously at what we can do and how far we can go to supportjobs, businesses we can do and how far we can go to support jobs, businesses and we can do and how far we can go to supportjobs, businesses and workers and that is why ministers will have and that is why ministers will have a very busy weekend in trying to come up with answers to those questions and then present something coherent to the people of wales and they will hear directly from welsh ministers when we have made a choice and understand how to support people. and then ask people to support each other in suppressing coronavirus and recognising the growing threat it represents if we choose not to act now. we would have a much bigger problem and even more people would lose their lives. vaughan gething, we will talk about that again next week, thank you for now. we are edging up to that news conference which is due to begin shortly in downing street and keeping an eye on the podium but our health correspondent catherine burns is with me and we will be watching that briefing but as we go into it, a reminder and that briefing but as we go into it, a reminderand a that briefing but as we go into it, a reminder and a sense of where we are? it varies hugely depending on where you live but the picture we are looking at tonight. it is one thatis are looking at tonight. it is one that is getting worse all the time not necessarily at that speed it was before fridays when we always have a lot of data telling us where we are at .i lot of data telling us where we are at .1 key thing to look at is the ons survey. this had looked at how far it has spread in homes in england for example in estimates that one in 160 people in england had it compared to one in 240 the week before. that is doubling every fortnight roughly and like you said, it‘s going up faster in some areas than others. it is looking at almost 28,000 new infections every day. the highest rates, will not be a surprise to anyone following the news, are in the north west, yorkshire, the humber and the north—east. in wales it is about one in 390 people which were infected and northern ireland, about one in 250. this does not include scotland but we have heard nicola sturgeon talking about the to look out for on fridays is the updated r number. this has not changed drastically but nudged slightly. the virus naturally kind of in fact, it is three which means each person who gets it would in effect three point it has been going down and down and when we had lockdown until august it was below one which was great news because that meant it was a slowly shrinking. when it is above one, it means everything a person will pass it on to more than one person it on to more than one growing. means everything a person will pass it on to more than one growing. and we are edging into winter, depending what winter is like depending on where you live. but we had perhaps more freedom than we appreciated over the summer. we had a good summer, we could be outdoors, and we are by definition getting into a trickier time of year. we are, and for many levels, we know that respiratory illnesses spread far more quickly in autumn and winter, so that is going to be an issue. there is also the psychological impact on people, because in the summer when we had the lovely weather in the spring, we were allowed to go out and have our one hour a day exercise, have people in our gardens in the summer, that was all quite pleasant. it is not the same situation when we have got about half the population of england in either tier 2 or 3 right now, which means the only kind of socialising they can do is outside, thatis socialising they can do is outside, that is not such a pleasant idea at this time of year, but it is what we are going to have to deal with. and politicians are juggling with that, juggfing politicians are juggling with that, juggling with the mental health implications that we know all about and talk about so much. it is a balancing act that i would not want to be in charge of. we hear a lot from sage, the scientist, so they have come out for example recently, sirjeremy farrar who is a director of the wellcome trust, he has at the tightest restrictions we have got in tier 3, he doesn‘t think they are tight enough. but that is someone looking at it from a health perspective, which is what sage, the government advisers, do. the politicians have to look at that data and then they have to look at the economy and other impacts on the nhs of people staying inside come on mental health, and come up with something that tries to juggle all of them. and trying to keep education going as well, that has been a distinction, schools were shut for so long, there has been a real drive to try to maintain education in this winter term. the government is really clear that this is an absolute priority, which is absolutely fine. if you think about it, you have a certain amount of options open to you if you are boris johnson right now. one of them is closing schools, but he has cut that off, he doesn‘t want to do that. which means that the other options like restrictions on hospitality, they are going to have to be pulled sooner because we are keeping that option off the table. but even with schools, we are seeing children in isolation for a couple of weeks at a time because teachers or other kids have tested positive, so we are seeing the schools are back, and they are back, but there are a lot of children right now and a lot of pa rents of children right now and a lot of parents who are home—schooling today. and we look to other countries a lot, so difficult to make comparisons. different demographics, different ways of living, different cultural attitudes to social distancing. are there countries, the three people for example we are about to hear from momentarily looking to to say, they are doing well. we can answer that right now, because here they are. let‘s hear it from the prime minister. good afternoon. i‘m joined by doctors susan hopkins from test and trace, and sir patrick vallance, chief adviser. on monday i said that we would seek to consult with mayors and local authorities in areas moving into the very high alert level. i‘m grateful to all of those in local government in hotspot areas who have been working with us over the last week on how to control the virus in their areas. in particular i would like to thank steve rotherham in merseyside, sadiq khan in london and local leaders in lancashire who have worked constructively with us. in merseyside where the situation is most acute, we were able to conclude talks quickly. in london we have worked with the mayor to respond to rising infections across the capital as well as particular spikes in some boroughs. and in lancashire, today, we have worked with both labour and conservative leaders to agree a package. these were tough discussions, difficult decisions. no one wants to have to implement these measures which damage local businesses, curtail individual freedom and impose significant strains on people‘s mental health. but these decisions were necessary because of the rate of increase not just of infections but also in hospitalisations and admissions to intensive care. without action there is no doubt that our nhs would soon be struggling to treat the sheer number of people seriously ill with covid. non—covid treatments and surgeries would need to be cancelled in order to cope, and many more people would die. so, taking action is the right and responsible thing to do, and it is backed up by significant support for areas on very high alert. the jobs support scheme combined with universal credit means that those on low incomes who were affected by business closures will receive at least 80% of their wages. we are providing up to £465 million to help very high alert level areas to implement and enforce the restrictions. in addition to the £1 billion of extra funding for local authorities across the country. we will work with local authorities to allocate testing and introduce local contact tracing. now, we have not yet reached an agreement with greater manchester. i completely understand the reluctance of the mayor and his colleagues to take manchester into the very high alert level. it is far from a pain—free course of action, and it will mean a difficult time for the people of that great part of the country on top of the restrictions they have already had to endure since the summer. but i must stress, the situation in greater manchester is grave, and it worsens with each passing day. cases doubled in the last nine days, high infection rates are creeping up the age range while cases are 690 per 100,000 for 16 to 29—year—olds, they have now risen to 224 per 100,000 for the over 60s. the number of covid inpatients in manchester‘s icu bed is already over 40% of the height of the number in the first wave, and that will inevitably rise further given the hospitalisation occurs two to three weeks after infection. on present trends, injust over weeks after infection. on present trends, in just over two weeks, they will be more covid patients in intensive care than at the peak of the first wave. so i urge the mayor to reconsider and engage constructively. i cannot stress enough, time is of the essence. each day that passes means that more people will go to hospital, more people will go to hospital, more people will go to hospital, more people will end up in intensive care, tragically more people will die. of course, if agreement cannot be reached, i will need to intervene in order to protect manchester‘s hospitals and save the lives of manchester‘s residents. but our effo rts manchester‘s residents. but our efforts will be so much more effective if we work together. some have argued that we should introduce a national lockdown instead of targeted local action, and i disagree. closing businesses in cornwall, where transmission is low, will not cut transmission in manchester. so while i can‘t rule anything out, if at all possible, i wa nt to anything out, if at all possible, i want to avoid another national lockdown with the damaging health, economic and social effect it would have. alongside our local strategy, we‘ve been working throughout to find other ways to suppress this virus. we are backing our brilliant scientist leading the global effort to find a safe and effective vaccine. we have also secured early access to 350 million vaccine doses through a portfolio of promising new vaccines to through a portfolio of promising new vaccines to ensure through a portfolio of promising new vaccines to ensure that we are in the best place, and we are taking every possible step to ensure we can move as quickly as possible to deploy a vaccine if and when one is found to work. and we‘ve created a huge diagnostics industry from scratch, scaling up the ability to test from 2000 in february to more than 300,000 today. i also want to update on our future approach to testing. we are now testing more people than any other country in europe, but we always want to go further. one of the most dangerous aspect of this disease is that people without any symptoms can infect many others without realising it. if we can catch more asymptomatic people before they unknowingly pass on the disease to the vulnerable, we can help to stop the vulnerable, we can help to stop the virus‘s vicious spread. so far, it‘s been difficult to do this, but thatis it‘s been difficult to do this, but that is changing. scientists and companies in britain and around the world have been developing new tests which are faster, simpler and cheaper. they have been working hard to discover and evaluate new testing technologies. though there is work to do, it is becoming clear over the past few weeks that some of these new tests are highly effective and can help us save lives and jobs over the winter. we have already bought millions of these tests, some of which are very simple, meaning you simply need to wipe the swab inside your mouth and can give a result as quickly as in 15 minutes. some of these fast tests work with saliva and we are already using these in hospitals. we have started building the infrastructure for domestic manufacture of these tests, ensuring that britain has the ability to produce millions of fast tests here. over the next few weeks, we will start distributing and trialling these tests across the country. this will enable us to do quick turnaround tests on nhs and care home staff much more frequently. by testing more frequently and quickly than ever before, we can help prevent the spread of the virus spreading through care homes. and we will be able to test students in universities with outbreaks as well as children in schools, helping us to keep education open safely through the winter. and we will make tests available to local directors of public health to help control localised outbreaks, handing more control from london to all parts of our country so that those on the ground can use the tools we give them as they think best, and i have instructed my team to ensure that liverpool city region, lancashire and any other areas that enter into the very high alert level are immediately prioritised for those tests. this will make a big difference in how we protect people from this disease. but it‘s vital that we all take a cautious approach to this new technology. first, it will take time to develop this plan. no country in the world is regularly testing millions of people, so we need to take the time to establish how to do this effectively and safely, and to build the logistics and distribution operation necessary for a large—scale operation across the country. second, we won‘t be able to use testing to get business back to normal quickly. in time, we wa nt to back to normal quickly. in time, we want to use tests to open and keep open more parts of the economy that have sadly been closed, but it is crucial that we make sure that such systems work safely, and i must level with you that it will take time to get this right before many organisations can buy and operate these tests themselves. third, this will need a huge effort across the country, and we will need hospitals, ca re country, and we will need hospitals, care homes, schools, universities and other organisations to work with us as we and other organisations to work with us as we develop this plan. but the most important thing is that people isolate if they test positive. if you test positive with one of these fast new tests, then you must stay at home. if everyone follows the rule and self—isolate if you have symptoms, get a positive test or come into contact with someone who has the virus, we will suppress the disease. and we must all remember that this virus thrives on human contact, so we must do everything in our power to limit its spread. always think, hands, face, space. ventilate your buildings, where a face covering in enclosed spaces, keep your distance from others and make sure as i said that you improve ventilation when spending time indoors. if we all do the simple things, we will protect each other from the virus and we will defeat it together. i will hand over to patrick vallance, who will run through the latest data, and will then go to your questions. sir patrick. i want to talk through three numbers which is the prevalence, the number of people who have the infection in the uk, the incidence, the number of new infections every day, and the r value which tells us how much this is spreading between people. this is the data that comes from the office for national statistics survey which is the most reliable way to get a handle on what is happening across the country and it is an estimate of the country and it is an estimate of the number of people who have covid at any one time and what you can see is that from may, the numbers went down and got down to quite low levels over july down and got down to quite low levels overjuly and august but then began to creep up in august and now have taken a big increase again in the last couple of weeks. and the latest data from the ons estimate that 336,000 people have cosied across the uk in the last two week period —— have covid. that is the sort of numbers we are talking about in terms of the prevalence, the number of people with the infection. the incidence is the number of new infections per day, and the best way to get a handle on this is not the number of people who have been picked up through test and trace because that is just a proportion of the total, not the total. you have to do it through studies like the ons study which take random selections, or through modelling as well and here are some of the results from two of the big studies, the ons study and the react study which is a big study done across the country. and the data from the modelling groups. and what you can see is they are estimating tens of thousands of people getting new infections every day, between 41000 and 53,000 per day with the react study, the ons has 22000 and 38,000 in the modelling suggesting it may be as high between 43000 and 74,000 per day getting the infection. these all look backwards so we would expect it to be towards the higher end of these at the moment you will have seen other data suggesting as high as 47,000 per day so that is the sort of number getting infected every day. and the third is the r value. here what we have shown the r range, and it‘s not a single value, but a range. from may through to now. and the first thing to say is that the red line points out when it is at one and at one the epidemic stays at exactly the same level. below one it is shrinking and above one it is growing. what you can see is the r stayed pretty flat at somewhere between 0.9, and 0.7, all the way through until the end of july and then it began to pick up in august, breached one, and is now up at somewhere between 1.3, and 1.5. that means for every person with the infection on average, they are infecting 1.3 — 1.5 other people, in other words the epidemic is growing. what you can see is that the r has not gone back to where it was and where it would be in an unmitigated epidemic of this disease which would be at around three. it has gone up and it is growing, formerly between 496 and it is growing, formerly between 4% and 7% per day but it has not gone right back up and that is because of the measures that eve ryo ne because of the measures that everyone is taking. reducing contact, reducing contacts in environments which then foster spread, certain environments are more likely to do so, poorly ventilated and so on, and making sure people who have the infection isolate. but we are not wet we need to beat which is to get the r to one or below —— where we need to be. there is more work to do. to move from national to regional, and the cmo showed similar slides a while ago but these have progressed u nfortu nately while ago but these have progressed unfortunately so the left—hand side shows the weekly cases per hundred thousand of the population and on the right, it shows how fast that is growing up and the colour of the purple on the left, the more their cases, their brown colour on the right shows growth and the darker the brown, the faster the growth. what you can see is there is a concentration of high levels of cases as we know in the north—east, the midlands and increasingly other parts of the country and that the growth rate is the fastest also in the north—west, some parts of the north—east, london and some other areas as well increasing but there is growth pretty much across the country so the epidemic is growing everywhere. as the cmo said, it‘s important to look also at age of how this is growing because we know when it gets into the over 60s and over 65 is, that is when you start to see a big increase in hospitalisation and unfortunately be serious complications including of course some people who will die from the disease. this is the distribution by age of over 60 and again, purple is a number of cases, darker purple more cases. on the right—hand side we are seeing growth in this age group, how quickly it is growing and the darker the brown, the more the growth and what you can see is an increase in the number of cases in over 60s, particularly in the north—west and north—east, elsewhere as well and you can see the growth rate is fastest in those areas as well so the epidemic is growing, growing everywhere, growing faster in some places and spreading to older age groups. this is represented in this heat map. let me take you through it to understand what the graph showing. it is giving a different age groups but look at the south—west in the bottom left. yellow means rather few cases. as the colours get darker, the number of cases are higher. at the number of cases are higher. at the age groups are such that the lowest a g es the age groups are such that the lowest ages a re the age groups are such that the lowest ages are at the bottom and the highest ages at the top and in the highest ages at the top and in the south—west you can see that from mid september through to october there has been a gradual increase in there has been a gradual increase in the number of cases, particularly in the number of cases, particularly in the age group of 16—29. not much increase as yet in the other age groups. if you can now look at the north—east and north—west, what you see is that as the cases increase in the younger age groups, they gradually spread to the older age groups. let‘s take the north—east, you can see the cases in the 16—29 —year—olds going to very high and as they go high, you see cases increasing in the 30—44 —year—olds, 45-59s increasing in the 30—44 —year—olds, 45—59s and of course the over 60s. we are seeing a gradual trend of increased numbers in the young, moving to increased numbers in older age groups and that is happening now across the country at different rates in different places. thatin that in turn is leading to increased hospital admission rates, as the prime minister said point of this is admission rates per hundred thousand of the population from july until october, split out by age, and you can see there is an increase across most age groups. of course it is obvious you are seeing an increase in the over 85s but also in 75 to 84s, in the over 85s but also in 75 to 845, 65-74 in the over 85s but also in 75 to 84s, 65—74 and even in younger age groups, 45—64. if you look since august, about 40% of the cases in hospital are under the age of 60. it is not just older hospital are under the age of 60. it is notjust older people going into hospital, younger people are as well. the hospitalisation is increasing and so are the intensive care at rates and again, this shows the increase in people in intensive care with covid since the beginning of september and you can see a significant increase there, again, split out by age. you can see the relatively big increase across all age groups from 45 onwards in terms of the admission rates into intensive care units. this shows across the regions where it mirrors what you have seen in terms of the case numbers, northwest, northeast and yorkshire, highest number is increasing midlands increasing, london beginning to increase and you can see other areas lower but in all areas increasing a little bit so i am afraid the news is that although the r is such that the epidemic is growing, it is growing not as fast as it was back in march or april but are still growing and growing more slowly because of the measures we are taking and if we take more measures to get it below one of the things we need to do as individuals, we can get this back under control but at the moment you can see the numbers are increasing leading to hospitalisations and intensive care unit admissions and that is the current state of affairs of the epidemic. thank you very much. questions from the public and first christopher from margate. what is the government's guidance to single parents who have regular contact with their children who live in a different county? i live in kent and my son lives in essex so what should ido my son lives in essex so what should i do regarding contact if essex or kent were to be a higher covid alert level and the other remained at medium? christopher, ithink the guidance alas is that you should go on the website obviously and check but when places go into a higher tierfrom the basic medium, then there are restrictions on household contact alas. so depending on how you define your household, you may find there are restrictions but you really need to go onto the website to see what is going on in kent and in essex in order to be absolutely sure. can we go to sarah from plymouth? she asked... sarah, at present we are not reintroducing shielding although obviously we keep that under review. we believe the package of measures we have got, the local restrictions, the tiering system, if everybody complies, it will help to protect older people and protect the vulnerable but obviously we will keep it under constant review. a question from the media and vicki young from the bbc. you have just said time is of the essence but talks with local leaders are causing delays. do you not now have to make a quick decision about whether you impose those extra recruitment on places including greater manchester or give them more money to persuade them? which will it be and when? and to sir patrick vallance, do you think a short period of two or three weeks up tighter national restrictions, some people call it a circuit breaker, would save more lives than the regional tiered approach? first of all, i think it is much better if we can work with our friends is much better if we can work with ourfriends in local is much better if we can work with our friends in local government and local authorities across the country with the local tiered approach. i don‘t think it makes sense, as i said, to be locking down the whole country when there is such a big difference in the infection rate across different parts of the uk. it really doesn‘t make sense to lock down cornwall or north norfolk, to close down businesses there which work very hard to make themselves covid secure in order to drive down transmission in parts of the north west. yes, of course we are working flat out with our friends across all those regions and i pay tribute particularly liverpool city region, to steve rotherham, to councillors in lancashire who i talked to this morning. it is good that london has also come on board. there is an issue outstanding in greater manchester and i hope the mayor of greater manchester will also come with us. as i said, there is compensation and there is support that we are making available. i think a very good levels of support. i hope he understands that and the urgency come as you rightly say, is there and we have got to get this done. but it is far better to do it together because we want the maximum local buy in, the maximum local enforcement and the maximum local compliance and that means local leadership. all the successful countries that have been driving down covid epidemics across the world, whether in east asia or europe or wherever, have been taking this strong locally based approach rather than imposing nationwide lockdowns and i think a local approach is the right one for us and i hope that greater manchester will come on board but as i said, obviously the national government must reserve the right to step in and do what is necessary. we recommended in september about taking a circuit break, and the idea there was that a two—week interruption would set cases back to the levels they were in august, and then at those levels, test and traces more effective to keep control, so that was the reasoning behind that. where we are now of course is a different situation. it is crucial that where the r is above 1and is crucial that where the r is above 1 and the numbers are high, we get the r above 1, particularly because hospitalisations are increasing, so it is crucial that that is done and there are a number of ways it can be done, and as the chief medical officer said, the tier 3 baseline conditions on their own certainly aren‘t enough to get the r below 1, but further measures should be enough to do that provided they are fully implemented and we‘ll stick to them. it is worth remembering that when the science advice is given, one of the things that we are very clear about is that there are other harms that need to be taken into account, so there is the direct arm of covid which we all know about. there is the indirect harm because beds become occupied in hospitals and that prevents other normal care, and that prevents other normal care, and that prevents other normal care, and that stops treatment of other diseases, cancers and cardiovascular diseases, cancers and cardiovascular disease and so on, and that‘s important to take into account. there is the economy, which clearly has an effect on health as well, and can have very long lasting damage, and there are effects on society, including loss of education in terms of disruption of schools and in terms of loneliness, isolation and the mental and physical effects of lockdown. so those of the things that politicians need to take into account when making the decision, but clearly anywhere where the r is above 1, the action needs to be taken, and the higher the r, the more action needs to be taken. thank you very much, patrick. let‘s go to sam coates of sky. prime minister, the presentation that you just showed showed 40,000 to 50,000 may be more new coronavirus cases every day. this looks like we are getting toa day. this looks like we are getting to a point where significantly tougher restrictions are needed if not nationally then at least in vast parts of the country. the lesson of the first spike was the longer you wait the worse it gets, and the more that cost the economy, so why not act more ja kony —— harshly today. will this hesitation mean that people will die as a result? of course you are right that we need urgent action in the areas where the virus is most prevalent, as patrick has just virus is most prevalent, as patrick hasjust said. but virus is most prevalent, as patrick has just said. but i virus is most prevalent, as patrick hasjust said. but i draw virus is most prevalent, as patrick has just said. but i draw your attention also to that point that patrick just made attention also to that point that patrickjust made about the r level. it is not rising in the way that it was a few months ago. we are not seeing the very rapid doubling of cases that we were seeing at the outbreak of the epidemic. there is the chance if we implement the measures that i think need to be taken at a regional, at a local level, more than a chance, that we can get the r down. because we only need to get another 30% of that r down, and we are below one again. so i think that is what we are aiming for. and we think that the budget of measures that we have set out would do it, as patrick has said, if we all implemented them together. if we did it together with the local authorities, the regions, that we have identified. you are quite right, there are areas across the country that now need to do more, and it will take everybody working together to achieve it. but my judgment is that it is better to go for that route now than to go back to the bad old days, the most difficult period, of closing our schools again, alas, taking pupils out of school, forcing people effectively to stay at home, making it very difficult for businesses to continue. in a way that causes long—term economic, social and public health damage. so that is the trade—off, it is incredibly difficult. we think that the local approach is the best one for now. that is why we‘re pushing so hard for it, that‘s why i am grateful to local leaders for what they‘re doing to help. but as i say, you call for more draconian measures, sam, be in no doubt the government stands ready to apply those measures as soon as we think that they‘re necessary. these are horrendously difficult decisions, and there are harms on both sides, as has been pointed out previously, and as ijust illustrated. from a purely epidemiological point of view, it is important to go quite fast on this and important to go hard enough to get the r below 1, and the sooner you do that, the more you get this under control. thank you very much. charlotte ivor‘s of talk radio. thank you very much. charlotte ivor's of talk radio. thank you, prime minister. our listeners are very concerned about the future. are you able to categorically rule out that we won't see a circuit breaker lockdown or something that looks like one in the next month or so? and patrick vallance, you talked about tier 3 perhaps not being enough to get the r below 1. would you be able to tell some precise examples of further measures that might be able to help? charlotte, as isaid might be able to help? charlotte, as i said earlier on in my answerjust now to sam, i rule nothing out. you mention further measures that might be able to help, it might be appropriate to bring susan hopkins into talk about some of the testing possibilities, because i also mentioned those in my opening remarks. but patrick. ithink... yougov. i think the first thing we have to take is personal responsibility, reducing our number of personal contact in all areas, even in tier1 and tier 2, keeping contact even in tier1 and tier 2, keeping co nta ct low even in tier1 and tier 2, keeping contact low and reducing contact and indoor spaces, particularly those that are less ventilated, it's something we can all do. and then of course there is testing. we are already ramping up and increasing the testing, we are at 300,000 tests a day to day, and we are looking to get to 500,000 a day by the end of the month, looking at technologies that can find asymptomatic infection, particularly in areas that are most at risk of transferring to vulnerable individuals, like care homes and hospitals, but we need to do this in universities and schools to keep education open as much as possible and as long as possible over the winter period while protecting the re st of winter period while protecting the rest of the population. and the other thing to add to what susan said is clearly isolation is important as the prime minister said. testing only works if people isolate, and so making sure that we keep as many of us out of circulation as possible who are infected during the time of infectiousness is crucial. and in terms of the extra measures, they are all laid out what the extra measures are, and i think that is where local knowledge and local insight can add and make sure that enough of those extra measures are put on top of baseline tier 3 in order to get this working and get the r below 1. thanks very much, charlotte. let‘s go to matt dixon of the sun. thank you, prime minister. to follow up charlotte, families up and down the country will be spooked by this latest idea from government scientists of repeated circuit breakers over each school holiday. are we really looking at a christmas lockdown circuit breaker? sir patrick, would it still be effective to do patrick, would it still be effective todoa patrick, would it still be effective to do a circuit breaker over half term? and i've got to ask, prime minister, about brexit, i'm afraid. you have left your door slightly ajar today by telling the eu you are still willing to talk to them if you see a fundamental change of approach from them. when will your door slam shut? is it new year's eve? when you still pick up the phone then? 0r would you rather die in a ditch, to coina would you rather die in a ditch, to coin a phrase. why don't i take the bits that are meant for me, patrick. look, matt, we want the local approach at the regional approach to work. we are giving it our best shot. we are working with local and regional mayors and city mayors around the country as you know to get this thing done. and i hope that everybody will take their responsibilities and drive it forward , responsibilities and drive it forward, because i don‘t want to see this country constantly looking down ina way this country constantly looking down in a way that you describe. we did it in march and april, we did it for a long time, and i think that the regional approach, a long time, and i think that the regionalapproach, keeping a long time, and i think that the regional approach, keeping our kids in school, keeping our economy moving as far as we possibly can, and that is what we are able to do with this approach, i think that is the best way forward, because i do think that we can drive down that r asi think that we can drive down that r as i was saying to sam coates earlier on. and on where we are with our friends earlier on. and on where we are with ourfriends and earlier on. and on where we are with our friends and partners earlier on. and on where we are with ourfriends and partners in europe, look, i think we‘ve got to a stage, alas, where they don‘t seem to want to progress a free trade deal, that was pretty clear from the conclusions of the summit, they don‘t want to go any further unless that fundamentally changes then we are going to have to come out on australian terms. but we will prosper mightily nonetheless. australian terms. but we will prosper mightily nonethelessm terms of the circuit breakers, a circuit breaker is a way of really pushing measures to a hard level to get r below 1 pushing measures to a hard level to get r below1 quickly, and then to release it. and that would break transmission whenever you do it, and it would therefore slow and buy some time in the epidemic. so in a way it is just time in the epidemic. so in a way it isjust an time in the epidemic. so in a way it is just an extreme version of what you are trying to do to try to get r below 1 anyway, and you are trying to do to try to get r below1 anyway, and there are different ways to try to get r below 1. different ways to try to get r below 1, anda different ways to try to get r below 1, and a circuit breaker is a way to do it in 1, and a circuit breaker is a way to do itina 1, and a circuit breaker is a way to do it in a short, defined period. thanks very much. let‘s go to bill jacobs of the lancashire telegraph. thank you very much, prime minister. parts of blackburn and pendle have been under severe coronavirus restrictions since august. how long do you think this latest tier 3 is going to take, and how long do you think people can put up with it? bill, you are asking the most important question, which is really about people‘s ability to keep going with this. and ijust want about people‘s ability to keep going with this. and i just want to say a massive thank you to people in lancashire who, as you rightly say, have been going through some pretty tough times for a very long time now. i want to say thank you to local leaders, council leaders that i talked to this morning in lancashire for the steps that they‘re taking to reduce the spread of the r, reduce the spread of the virus, in lancashire. and you know, we can do it. we can do it together. the quantum by which, the amount by which we need to reduce the r is not as big as it was right back in the beginning of the spread of this disease. if we all work together on the measures we‘ve outlined, we can definitely do it, and i would like to see lancashire and everywhere else coming out of tier 3 as fast as possible. you have missed one, prime minister. i have. i'm so sorry. george parker of the financial times. that was not intentional, forgive me. george. thank you, prime minister. it does seem odd in a press conference where we have been talking about a pandemic to be also talking about a pandemic to be also talking about a pandemic to be also talking about brexit and the idea that we are might add more economic uncertainty into an already very uncertainty into an already very uncertain time for the country, particularly as it seems to turn on fisheries which accounts for 0.1% of the economy and how free you are to hand out state subsidies to industries. my specific question is this. you say that you are prepared to take the country out of the transition period without a trade deal, on the lowest common denominator trade terms that you can have, so how do you explain to people, for example, in the car industry, who will face tariffs of 10% on the export's, or indeed people in upland rural areas who produce lamb or beef who face tariffs of between 40% and 100%? are there industries expendable for brexit? george, as i have said this morning, we are very keen to get a canada morning, we are very keen to get a ca na da style morning, we are very keen to get a canada style as i explained earlier on, buti canada style as i explained earlier on, but i think we can prosper mightily under an australian version if we have two. it is pretty clear from what happened at the summit today that our friends don‘t want to negotiate, don‘t want to offer us the canadian option, so we have got to make the necessary preparations, andi to make the necessary preparations, and i have no doubt that all the sectors that you have mentioned, this whole country, can get ready foran this whole country, can get ready for an australian exit, and as i say, i‘m absolutely certain that we can do very well indeed. thank you all very, very much. thank you for your time. studio: so, the prime minister and the end of that briefing, and lots to go through with our political correspondent and our health correspondent, who have been listening to that alongside me. several times several comments about the situation regarding greater manchester, and you heard it there, the prime minister saying of course it is better to work with our friends in local and regional government. we would like to work with them, but we are urging andy burnham, the mayor of manchester, to essentially come on board and to work with those thoughts of putting manchester into the very highest tier of lockdown restrictions, the restrictions that are already facing the city region of liverpool. let‘s get the thoughts ofjessica parker, listening to that. what did you make, because the whole issue of greater manchester was looming large over that, jessica? top of the shop was borisjohnson trying to pile some pressure on andy burnham come to terms over this debate, even this row over what next for greater manchester. andy burnham, the labour mayor of greater manchester, said he did not want his error to be a ca nary did not want his error to be a canary in the coal mine in terms of moving to new restrictions and he has been pushing for more financial support from the government and is very unhappy with the level of support the government is currently offering but borisjohnson in the press co nfe re nce offering but borisjohnson in the press conference said the situation in manchester was grave, urging the mayor to reconsider. crucially saying of course that if greater manchester local leaders do not ee, manchester local leaders do not agree, the government is willing to intervene and i think that is important to point out that amid all these debates about local restrictions and engagement with local leaders, ultimately boris johnson acknowledged it was up to downing street to decide. on that point, it has the right to ultimately impose this? they want to play nice but they have the right to impose it? i think in terms of wanting to play nice, there is an element of wanting local leaders to buy in to the plans for that local area partly because that will reinforce the local health message if leaders are saying they are on board and they think it is the right thing to do for the area. i think downing street would like some local politicians to take some responsibility for what is happening in their areas but local politicians, where they are unhappy, say they are standing up for their areas and what is right for their hard—pressed areas and what is right for their ha rd—pressed businesses. areas and what is right for their hard—pressed businesses. but ultimately, ministers in westminster will get to decide but i think downing street were anxious to avoid the impression of being seen to impose local restrictions on areas but clearly borisjohnson suggesting maybe that time is running out in terms of making the decision for greater manchester so it will be very interesting to see what happens over the next 24 hours in terms of that area. very interesting and we are hoping to talk to andy burnham before six o‘clock but i expect everybody is digesting that in greater manchester and there was a peppering of questions about a national lockdown, people wondering if it is coming to put up the prime minister would not be drawn, said he did not want to do that. but it is something people keep nudging away at. especially after it emerged there was this advice for a circuit breaker in september from the scientists and that was inevitably put to sir patrick vallance, the chief scientific adviser, saying things are a bit different now even a few weeks on. the government was very clear that it does not want any kind of national lockdown and just to be clear, a further lockdown across the nation does not necessarily mean the kind of thing we saw in late march. i think they are adamant they want schools to stay open whatever happens if at all possible although with half—time approaching there are questions about whether you could go for some sort of lockdown then but they are not ruling it out. he is sticking at the moment to a localised approach but as we have seen in the last week, politically that has proved complicated point of the quest was to simplify the public health message with these tiers of restrictions but as led to fierce debates and discussions and new levels of complexity in different areas. is very interesting again to hearsir areas. is very interesting again to hear sir patrick vallance talking about the baseline of tier 3, the tightest type of restrictions. chris whitty, chief medical officer, said on monday the baseline alone would not be enough and a lot of people are quite startled to hear that and sir patrick vallance said he agreed with that in those areas where we are seeing high rates of the virus, local areas will have to go further than just the base of those tier 3 restrictions. really interesting and we will let you get more reaction but thank you for now, jessica parker in westminster. we can talk more about the health elements of that briefing with catherine burns who was glistening with me. what stood out for you? —— listening with me. it was the state of the nation and the interesting thing was patrick vallance, some of the things he spoke about. he gave us a lot of data as they always do. saying that the onus is estimating in the last fortnight 336,000 people in the uk have had coronavirus which is a big number —— of the ons is estimating. he gave a range of estimates about how many new infections are happening each day and the range is massive. gave three different bits of data, one of them are saying it could beat 40 1000—53,000, another save 20 2000-38000 could beat 40 1000—53,000, another save 20 2000—38000 and another saying 40 3000—75,000. so what we do when we get three bits of data telling us such a huge range? the point to remember is these are estimates, trying to figure out what is happening but they are telling the same picture which is that this is growing and it is out there. another interesting thing about hospital admissions, saying 40% of hospital admissions, saying 40% of hospital admissions, saying 40% of hospital admissions are people under 60 and they are emphasising this is not just 60 and they are emphasising this is notjust an 60 and they are emphasising this is not just an illness 60 and they are emphasising this is notjust an illness that 60 and they are emphasising this is not just an illness that affects the elderly which is obviously... we are seeing cases go up more in young people and they tend to not get it ata people and they tend to not get it at a seriously but that does not mean they will always be ok. and the other thing is the r rate, the virus has a other thing is the r rate, the virus hasa r other thing is the r rate, the virus has a r rate of around three meaning that for everyone who gets it they will spread it to three people but right now that is around 1.3—1.5 but he showed how it went to below one which is where we want it, to get the epidemic is shrinking, and how since the summer it started going up. these numbers sound tiny but what is the difference between that and one? the best way to think about it, if ten people get it, if the r is1.5, it, if ten people get it, if the r is 1.5, they will infect 15 people and those 15 will go on to infect 15 and those 15 will go on to infect 15 and so on. that is what it is key we keep it down. there was some positivity about it as well, both borisjohnson positivity about it as well, both boris johnson and positivity about it as well, both borisjohnson and patrick positivity about it as well, both boris johnson and patrick vallance making the point that it is not at three, we are not where we were in april and that is true. cases are growing, they are going up, but not as fast as they were then and that is obviously a large part down to the changes we have made. yes, i feel i wrote down several times that things were going up but not as much as they were but interesting to hear patrick vallance acknowledging that politicians are having to juggle the other impacts we know about and the economic impacts and you talked about hospitalisation rates which was interesting as he said, icu rates are also going up, intensive ca re rates are also going up, intensive care beds occupied by people with covid. ideally, they should be used for people in the routine weight we know about that is the knock—on we are at. this is something that is becoming familiar. we talk about cases and slowly hospitalisation and then we see intensive care numbers and ventilated numbers going up and then we see deaths because that is how this works, there is a lag of two or three weeks between someone being infected and getting well or not. and it was interesting as well, the statistics about younger people go into hospital with it. i have interviewed so many virologists who have said, i wish politicians would talk more about the fact that this is not just talk more about the fact that this is notjust something that impacts much older people. this is the message that needs to go out. much older people. this is the message that needs to go outlj much older people. this is the message that needs to go out. i was speaking to a 22—year—old yesterday as long—term covid and got sick in march and is still off work barely able to do anything to. that is the exception to the rule but it does not mean it‘s not happening. exception to the rule but it does not mean it's not happeningm happens and we talk more than we did about long covid as well and people who are even if they are well enough to go back to work, they lose their sense of taste and smell and were learning more about that. there are people with all kinds of things from neurological things, extreme fatigue, respiratory commit something that we at the beginning of learning about and it is something that we will be looking at for yea rs something that we will be looking at for years to come i imagine. thank you very much. i think you are staying but thank you, catherine burns our health correspondent with her reflections on the news briefing from borisjohnson her reflections on the news briefing from boris johnson and her reflections on the news briefing from borisjohnson and sir patrick vallance. as covid—19 continues to exert pressure all over europe, one country stands out having taken a different approach. sweden didn‘t lock down during the early stages of the pandemic, and still hasn‘t. its death rates from coronavirus are similar to many other countries — though significantly higher than its neighbours, norway and finland. ros atkins has been taking a look at the detail. sweden‘s approach to covid—19 has again been demanding attention. in late september the who told us, we must recognise that sweden at the moment has avoided the increase that has been seen in some of western europe, we would be very keen on hearing more from the swedish approach. but what is the swedish approach? many countries went into lockdown in march. sweden did not, and instead pursued voluntary social distancing, encouraging working from home, avoiding public transport, table service in bars, and that advice rested on the assumption that people feel like this. we in sweden trust the authorities. if the authorities say please stay at home and work from home, please, we do that. they did not have to say, you need to go on a lockdown. sweden‘s focus has been on people voluntarily managing contacts with others and key to that is the super spreader. it is thought most covid infections are spread by up to 20% of people who have it, and they said sweden understood this. a full lockdown would be too much. we need to look at and eliminate super spreaders. that is what sweden did. the only really intervention they did was to say that max gatherings were 50. that‘s sweden‘s approach. and how do we assess it? we need to look at how the numbers compare. sweden‘s total deaths per capita is higher sweden‘s total deaths than most european nations. second, when it comes to the total cases per capita, both norway and the uk have lower figures than sweden, but spain and france have higher. third, sweden has so far avoided, so far, an autumn surge, its infection rate is higher than norway and germany and rising. it is not a clear cut success story. there are other issues. some critics argue it is all a misjudged plan to achieve herd immunity, something that is strongly denied. sweden‘s approach has relied on thousands of vulnerable people shielding and sweden acknowledges it failed to properly protect care homes at the start of the pandemic. but the man who divides sweden‘s approach thinks it will work in the long—term. translation: in parts we have always had the same recommendations and general advice. they still apply. i think it creates a sense of security and a long—term perspective and is easier to follow. at the heart of sweden‘s approach is the idea of the social contract, it requires trust between people and national decision—makers. there is nothing in the data to show sweden is definitely getting it right, but the emphasis on trust and consensus feels relevant as european governments once again change the rules by which people are living. let‘s ta ke let‘s take a few more minutes to reflect on what we heard in the downing street briefing. let‘s talk now to dr lindsay broadbent, who is a virologist at queen‘s university, belfast. i don‘t expect you to have listened to every moment but i am curious what stood out for you in terms of the discussions about testing, boris johnson‘s reluctance to have any kind of national lockdown as well? what i noticed is that boris is very relu cta nt to what i noticed is that boris is very reluctant to say that there are no certainties, he cannot rule out a national lockdown and cannot guarantee there will be one hundred i think at that point in time that encompasses the message that everything is very uncertain and things are changing on a daily basis. i am in northern ireland obviously and we are a little bit ahead of the curve than the rest of the uk with higher rates of infection and hospitalisation and we are of course starting a circuit breaker type lockdown this evening. it may be that what is happening in northern ireland is a picture of what is to come in the rest of the uk. and that is interesting and i did want to ask you about that because you have four weeks of restrictions coming in tonight, a two—week shutdown for schools so from your perspective as a virologist, what could or should be achieved in that time? what is the purpose of it? a lot of the restrictions being introduced here in northern ireland are based on the modelling we have seen and we know that this short circuit breaker type lockdown should reduce the r number below one. i am really reassured to see that northern ireland is introducing a lot of these measures forfour introducing a lot of these measures for four weeks introducing a lot of these measures forfour weeks and introducing a lot of these measures for four weeks and that will give us enough time to see if these will have had an effect. of course, if we only introduce something for a week or two, that‘s not long enough to see any effect and it will take two or three weeks to see just how much any intervention has helped. in terms of school lockdowns, that was an extended break, an extra week of half term for the kids and i understand that is to minimise the impact and is the lockdown in essence to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed as mac is that one of the key elements, or should that in your case four week period be used for other constructive elements as well? and i‘m thinking about testing. not overwhelming the hospitals is one of the really key things. back on the 1st of october, the very start of this month, there we re the very start of this month, there were less than 100 patients in hospitals over here with covid. today there are 213. so we have really seen an exponential growth in the number of people requiring treatment, and that is a worry because obviously that will impact other services within the nhs, and we need to make sure that not only covid patients, but any patient that needs treatment, especially emergency treatment, can access that when they need it. in terms of other aspects such as testing and tracing, if we are able to get the number of infected people down and the number of cases down, it makes that a lot easier. it makes tracing an awful lot easier because people will have reduced their movements with these new restrictions, and just in terms of sheer numbers, the people doing the actual tracing and phoning around will have an easierjob, a much reduced job, because of the sheer number of people will be reduced. that is interesting, so it can help to make test and trace more effective, to make the system operate better, essentially? absolutely, for example in northern ireland over the past seven days, 13% of people that have been tested have tested positive. that is an awful lot of pressure on the testing and tracing system. if we can get that number reduced, if we are having less positive tests, then it makes the system overall much more efficient and effective. and a quick final thought, because i was struck with what you said about the duration, you said you were glad northern ireland was going for a four—week circuit breaker, because we think we might hear something from wales on monday about similar measures there. suggestions that it could be two to three weeks, that is the suggestion, but i‘m interested that you would argue that that is perhaps not long enough, that actually a longer period is statistically beneficial. it certainly is, and the reason for thatis certainly is, and the reason for that is the incubation period for this virus can be up to two weeks, which is why we know the self—isolation period is up to 14 days, and that is why any measure would need to be at the minimum two weeks, if not three, so that we can tell it what has been introduced is having a significant effect, and if it is, does that need to continue longer to have any enhanced effect? orasa longer to have any enhanced effect? or as a three orfour longer to have any enhanced effect? or as a three or four week temporary shutdown enough willing to reduce the r number? thank you very much indeed, doctor lindsey broadbent from queens university belfast. a very good afternoon to you. the time is just a little after five o‘clock. if you are just if you arejustjoining us, we have been listening to a number 10 news briefing. the prime minister has chaired a government coronavirus briefing in which he said that he is prepared to "intervene" in manchester to "save lives". that is if an agreement cannot be reached between number 10 and that region in terms of manchester going into the very highest level of restrictions. talking about those discussions with leaders in manchester, boris johnson specifically urge the mayor, andy burnham, to reconsider and engage constructively, saying time is of the essence. he described the situation in the city is grave, and that it worsens with each passing day. he also said that he would resist another national lockdown if at all possible. the government has come under pressure to impose a circuit—brea ker across the country. he was asked about that at the briefing, but he said he wanted to continue to avoid such action in order to avoid damaging health, economic and social effects. the government also said that there had been a further 15,650 cases of coronavirus in the uk. a further 136 people have died within 28 days of testing positive for covid—19. let‘s cross live now to our political correspondentjessica parker. we may have more to say about the whole greater manchester question. several questions were asked about testing. boris johnson several questions were asked about testing. borisjohnson seemed to talk about testing trace for quite some time, but i‘m not sure that they were really any specific announcements or real actual bullet points there is to things that are going to change? yes, so he was talking about the roll—out of fast turnaround tests. the idea being that you test lots of people with these fast turnaround tests, and people who test negative can get on with their day and live normal lives, and people who test positive have to go home and isolate. so it is just have to go home and isolate. so it isjust a more nimble have to go home and isolate. so it is just a more nimble way of trying to tackle the virus. and he talked about how the government already bought millions of these tests, they wa nt to bought millions of these tests, they want to build infrastructure for domestic manufacture of these types of tests, and they‘re trialling quick turnaround tests across the country, in places like liverpool and lancashire which are at or moving to the highest tier of restrictions will be prioritised for that. so i think trying to, yes, give an update on where that is out, provide a bit of optimism, but also he was cautious as well, saying that these things are still being looked at over the coming weeks and months, and there will be critics who will raise a sceptical eyebrow. boris johnson talked about a world beating test track and trace system back in the summer, and ministers have consistently defended the testing system, but of course there has been lots of criticism over recent reap weeks and months because you saw people struggling to get a test and then big questions over the level to which contact tracing was effective. but i think borisjohnson hoping there as well as those statistics that make for some gloomy reading providing that he is trying at least to provide some optimism around ways to provide some optimism around ways to help people try to get their lives back to as normal as possible using a fast track turnaround testing system. and a very quick thought before we let you go about national lockdown, people keep talking about it, speculating about it. again, the prime minister very keen, very clear, that on a personal level, it is not something he wants. that speaks to his intensely libertarian sense of all of this, but people are going to keep pushing him on it, aren‘t they? but people are going to keep pushing him on it, aren't they? he likes to talk about how he is a freedom loving tory, and doesn‘t want to be seen as wanting to impose these kind of restrictions, but i think he is also suggesting he doesn‘t think it is the logical thing to do at the moment. he talked about why you would impose further restrictions, close businesses, in the south—west of england, in order to tackle a rising number of cases in the north west of england. so i think he clearly doesn‘t think it is the logical thing to do at this stage, but clearly there are big questions, because we learned this week that sage had recommended some kind of circuit breaker back in september, ministers decided not to opt for that. they‘re trying instead to tackle the virus with this idea of a more simplified tiered system for england, but as we have been talking about this afternoon, the politics of that has become pretty obligated. hasn‘t it? thank you very much, jessica bach at westminster, and we will stay a little bit with the politics of it, but we will reflect on the differences and the tensions if you like between national approaches versus local approaches, and as we keep reflecting, the situation is different depending on which part of the country you live in. we have had a lot of focus on the greater manchester issue, but other areas are impacted too,. let‘s speak to alex norris, a shadow health minister for the labour party. he‘s also an mp for nottingham north. mps in the city were due to have a meeting about restrictions in nottingham today but that was called off. is that correct? yes, that didn't happen today, the government decided they wanted to meet with us and our council leaders, which we welcome, and that they didn‘t feel they needed to do it until next week, so we will be waiting with bated breath for that. and what is your sense of where that is headed and whether negotiations can be held constructively between local and regional efficient and downing street? well, we know in nottingham we have got the highest infection rate in the country, so there is only so long you can be at that level without being in tier 3, but we are clear we want the right solution for the economy so that those health measures are truly impactful and we will get a very first—hand impression of how good those negotiations are. the government say they are desperate to negotiate locally, so let‘s hope that‘s the case. negotiate locally, so let‘s hope that's the case. given that, what you make of the disagreements, if you make of the disagreements, if you call than that, between number 10 and leaders in greater manchester? you will have heard borisjohnson, i‘m manchester? you will have heard boris johnson, i‘m sure, manchester? you will have heard borisjohnson, i‘m sure, urging andy burnham, the labour mayor, same party as you, to be constructive and come on board with all of this. the thing about andy, the thing about andrew western, richard rees, leaders of trafford into manchester, these are all reasonable people who desperately want the best for their community, and the fact that they‘re so exasperated shows just how poorly they‘ve been engaged with. now, i know all they care about is getting this right for the health and the economy of their community, and the fa ct economy of their community, and the fact that they are saying this is so wanting, i hope, ratheras fact that they are saying this is so wanting, i hope, rather as we have seen state government moaning about party politics, should give them pause to reflect and say, hang on a minute, why are these people so concerned and how can we address those concerns. it is not only government moaning about party politics, is it? david navarro told us earlier this week that he was really distressed to see politics playing a part in coronavirus. well, i would argue that as an opposition we have been constructive. we desperately want the government to succeed, i want to get back to my family, to the pub, to the football. we all have a stake in this working, and we have been constructive throughout, ta ken loads and we have been constructive throughout, taken loads of criticism for not challenging the government enough. only two weeks ago i was on the bbc asking why we went challenging the curfew, for example. so we have been constructive but that can‘t be an unlimited well of goodwill. if the government are doing things that we think of ignoring the science and not in the nation‘s best interest, we have a responsibility to speak up, which is what you saw this week with keir starmer arguing for a circuit breaker, which is what the scientist think will work, we think it is the best way forward, so again rather than worry about giving keir starmer a win as we have seen briefed in today‘s newspapers, we willjust do the right thing. you heard boris johnson, i‘m sure, saying that he deserves the right to intervene in greater manchester if an agreement can‘t be reached. what sort of message do you think that sends out toa message do you think that sends out to a public that is perhaps to pretty confused by all the rules at the moment, perhaps also nervous about the coming months ahead? don‘t the general public want to see consensus and agreement, because that will give them confidence?” think that is a really important point. you can have the greatest rules in the world and the greatest, cleverest system, but if people don‘t adhere to some, then it is worthless. so i think people will worry when they see it as a pitched battle, which is why i think a negotiated settlement is best for both sides rather than westminster imposing it on manchester or nottingham or anywhere else. so let‘s hope that those negotiations can continue and can come to an agreement that is good for both the health and also the local economy, too. quick final thoughts. the health and also the local economy, too. quick finalthoughts. the prime minister said he is really reluctant to talk about any kind of national lockdown, even a short one. do you feel that the local and regional approaches the right way forward? no, we don‘t think it is enough. we think we need a circuit breaker to give us time to sort these significant problems in testing and tracing. we have at the week last week for tracing falling over, so the prime minister is desperate to avoid lockdown just as he was at the beginning of the pandemic, but we know that that delay at the beginning was really damaging, and i fear it has been damaging again, so the prime minister needs to look again at that. alex norris, thank you very much indeed for your time, thank you. shadow health minister, mpfor thank you. shadow health minister, mp for nottingham north. and in terms of local issues, the leader of windsor and maidenhead has asked the government to move the borough into high covid alert restrictions because of the rise there in coronavirus infections. it is currently under national restrictions, but councillor andrew johnson says the increase in cases is alarming. he says the council will be asking for tougher measures from next week, and he urged residents to consider their actions to try to stop the spread. health inspectors in the uk have raised concerns about the millions of people who could have missed out on ca re people who could have missed out on care as a result of the pandemic. since it started, gp surgeries have offered 26 million fewer appointments compared to last year, according to nhs figures. the care quality commission is warning that the number of "lost" appointments could mean cancer diagnosis has been delayed while other long—term conditions may have worsened. we will have continuing coverage on bbc news. we can say goodbye to viewers on bbc one now. you‘re watching bbc news. in the last hour or so, we have had another regular briefing now from the prime minister borisjohnson. the coronavirus briefing bring us up—to—date with the picture. the prime minister said that he is prepared to "intervene" in manchester to "save lives", if an agreement cannot be reached between the uk government and local representatives. talking about the ongoing discussions with local leaders in manchester, borisjohnson specifically urged mayor andy burnham to "reconsider and engage constructively", saying that "time is of the essence" while describing the situation in the city as being "grave" and that it "worsens with each passing day". the prime minister said he would resist another national lockdown ‘if at all possible‘. the government has come under pressure to impose a short ‘circuit—breaker‘ across the country, but mrjohnson said he wanted to continue with taregted local action in order to avoid damaging health, economic and social effects. the government also said that there had been a further 15,650 cases of coronavirus in the uk. a further 136 people have died within 28 days of testing positive for covid—19. let‘s listen to what the prime minister said about manchester in his news conference a few minutes ago. now, we have not yet reached an agreement with greater manchester. i com pletely agreement with greater manchester. i completely understand the reluctance of

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