It is that the future potential of the economy is scarred by business failures, buy less business investment, by the unemployed finding it harder to get back into the labour market. But in italy so badly hit by the crisis some of the restrictions are now being lifted. And we talk to captain tom, the 99 year old Second World War veteran whos now raised £2. 5 million for the nhs. Coming up in sport later in the hour on bbc news, sailing to tokyo. The british team stays the same, and thats good news for the olympic champion. Good evening. The latest official evidence of the human cost of coronavirus shows a very sharp rise in the number of deaths per week throughout england and wales, 6,000 more than would be expected at this time of year. The figures released by the ons, the office for national statistics, relate to the week leading up to the 3rd april, since when the numbers have risen again and theres particular concern about the situation in care homes and in the community at large. The new figures show that more than one in five deaths in england and wales are now linked to coronavirus. Across the uk there were 778 deaths reported in the last 24 hour period, most of those in hospital. It means that, so far, the official number of deaths in the uk linked to coronavirus is more than 12,000, but, crucially, that number doesnt include deaths in care homes or in the community in england and northern ireland. The impact of the crisis on the economy is also causing concern. An independent report says that a three month lockdown could cause the economy to shrink by as much as 13 this year. More on the economy in a moment, but first our Health Editor hugh pym on the latest figures. My my mum, she was my best friend, she was kind, funny. Candies remembers her mother anna who died with covidi9. Her mother anna who died with covid19. She her mother anna who died with covidi9. She last her mother anna who died with covid 19. She last saw her when she was in an ambulance on the way to hospital where she died 11 days ago. Im never going to see my mum again and id rather not see the outside again. My mum was only 58 and it just wasnt her time. This is the worst pain in the world. I think its not worth it, its not worth it going outside and meeting up with your friends. Everyday families like this suffer losses and no new statistics reveal there are more than we thought. Until very recently all the focus on coronavirus debts has been on those in hospitals, that is where the daily data comes from. But the latest set of stats shines some light on the spread of the virus in local communities and deaths there which might be directly or indirectly linked to covid 19. Weekly deaths in england and wales we re weekly deaths in england and wales were at the highest since records began in 2005, according to the 0ffice began in 2005, according to the office for national statistics. In the week ending april the 3rd, there we re the week ending april the 3rd, there were more than 16,300 deaths, 6000 more than the average for this time of year. Coronavirus cases contributed much of the jump, of year. Coronavirus cases contributed much of thejump, linked to nearly 3500. But it is not clear what is behind the rest, possibly some could be caused by people not seeking treatment other conditions. It is possible there are further deaths that relate to coronavirus that are not recorded as that, it is possible there are further deaths that relate to other conditions for which people perhaps have not accessed help in the way they might have done in the past. Today the head of nhs england made a plea to patients not to stay away from hospital. If you are a parent and you are worried about your child, if you are worried about your child, if you are worried about your child, if you are concerned about a heart attack or stroke, any other essential need, please come forward, access the nhs, our staff are here to look after you. Sir simon who revealed he himself had had coronavirus and self isolated for just over a week, was meeting student nurses and doctors who had volunteered for front front line work. Is it a bit daunting when you think about it . Yes. It is daunting. 0bviously think about it . Yes. It is daunting. Obviously i have family and friends that i care about. And my health as well. But its an important time for everyone. To be part of it. Boosting testing of patients and nhs staff wanting to return to work is an urgent priority and the government set an ambitious target of 100,000 a day by the end of this month, up from about 15,000 now. And the Big Pharmaceutical Companies say they can help. We are fully operational at the end of the month, by may, and that will contribute around 30,000 of the target. We are delighted to participate and we have many of our scientists who are very engaged in that and keen to support that aspect of the solutions. But supplies of personal protective equipment are still tight and there has been an urgent appeal to businesses to produce whatever they can for front line staff, to help save lives for the carers, as well as the patients they look after. One of the most alarming elements of the new data from the 0ns is that around one in ten of all deaths linked to coronavirus happened outside hospital, including at least 217 in care homes, and those figures are already nearly three weeks out of date. The charity age uk has warned that covid 19 is spreading in care homes like wildfire and campaigners say that the residents of care homes have been largely forgotten. The chancellor denied that in the news c0 nfe re nce the chancellor denied that in the News Conference today. The chancellor denied that in the News Conference today. Its already confirmed that there have been outbreaks of covid 19 in more than 2,000 care homes in england, as our correspondent alex forsyth reports. My mum was a peoples person. She told everyone she loved them and everyone loved her. Rose mitchell was a familiar face in her street in south west london. So much so, her neighbours stood outside to pay their respects on hearing that she had died. At 81 she passed away in her care home after contracting coronavirus. Her daughter and the rest of her family on the end of the phone. They held the phone to her ear, we could hear herjust breathing. And we played her danny boy, her favourite song. And we all told her we loved her and, um, we said goodbye. Karen says what is happening in care homes cant be overlooked, praising carers like those who were with her mum until the end. I can only say to them thank you, because over the last week they have brought us incredible comfort, to know that she wasnt alone. Care homes across the country are reporting a rising number of deaths. Here in liverpool 15 residents, a further 13 people at this home in county durham, and here, near bristol, a significant number are said to have died. At this home not far from wolverhampton staff are frightened. This is my fourth long shift at work, im tired, anxious and scared. Theyve had suspected coronavirus cases here. Impossible to keep their distance from each other, these carers say they are on the forgotten front line. Its scary because theyve said its going to get worse, so when you keep thinking what is the next shift going to be like . What is going to happen on my shift . Its mentally and physically draining. Yeah. The staff are quite worried because when we have ambulances coming, theyve got the full on gear on and we havent got a lot of ppe and you feel vulnerable. Yeah. Its worrying as well because we are going back to our loved ones as well. The government says it is delivering millions of items or protective kit and increasing testing capacity, but managers here say its not enough. Theyre not testing, theyre not testing. Weve had residents come back who have been to a e and they come back and they are not testing them. Do you feel like you are getting the support you need . Not particularly, no. Some residents are staying positive even while separated from family. Nobody knows how quick it is going to go away and i think its going to take a long time. Whats your plan when you finally get to see your family . To have several gin and tonics and say hurray. 0ptimism despite real concern for societys most vulnerable and those who are trying to protect them. Alex forsyth, bbc news. Lets ask our social Affairs Correspondent alison holt for some more context around todays figures. And we were listening to the reports from a care home. Put these figures in context for us. Certainly from alexs peace you can see the level of concern in care homes about the impact the virus is having. That same level is being expressed by People Living in their own homes. This is being expressed by Vulnerable People and whilst they might be trained to look after people until the end of their lives, nothing prepares them for what they are seeing now. They are losing residents they see as family and they are on the front line of tackling this virus. The ten day time lag behind the official figures published today can only really hint at what is going on in care homes and home care right now. The stats show for the week ending april the 3rd that there were 406 deaths linked to covid19 3rd that there were 406 deaths linked to covid 19 in the community in england and wales. That is in peoples own homes, in hospices and in care homes. To give you some context to that, there are about 430,000 older and disabled People Living in residential and Nursing Homes in england. When you look across the uk, each weekjust about 540,000 people receive some form of ca re 540,000 people receive some form of care in their own homes. When you break that down that adds up to 1 million home care visits a day going on. The care that is being provided is personal, it is hoisting, washing, dressing, and in those circumstances social distancing is really difficult, almost impossible. That is why personal protective equipment is so important. Care providers say they are still not getting enough of that and there needs to be more testing. They feel forgotten, they want action now. Certainly the pressures they have faced are the same sort of distressing, intense pressures that the nhs is currently facing. Alison, thank you very much for taking us through those figures. The potentially devastating impact of the Coronavirus Crisis on the uk economy has been spelled out by the independent tax and spending watchdog the 0br, the office for budget responsibility. The chancellor, rishi sunak, speaking at the daily downing street News Conference a short while ago said he was deeply troubled by the figures. The 0br warns that if the lockdown lasts three months with another three months of partial lifting, the uk economy could shrink by 35 between april and june this year before a likely recovery. In the model experts predicted unemployment could rise to 10 of the working population. This would more than double unemployment levels and amount to a rise of two millionjobless people, as our Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg reports. Stuck on the shelf, stuck without trade, the shutdown is draining live from chris northcotts business and from chris northcotts business and from the whole economy as well. We have a warehouse full which we cannot sell and we need internet orders to come through on our website. This is our only source of income. Coronavirus present in the government not with just a health emergency, but a decade defining downturn. These are tough times and there will be more to come, but we came into this crisis with a fundamentally sound economy. People are devastated by the numbers of people losing their lives, but tonight with warnings of 2 million extra people unemployed, people are desperately worried about their jobs. If you can level with people, do you think you will be feeling the costs of this crisis for a generation . I also am deeply troubled when i see these numbers. I have consistently said at this podium and elsewhere that this is going to be hard, our economy will ta ke going to be hard, our economy will take a significant hit. That is not an abstract thing, people will feel that in theirjobs and household incomes. Your point about a generation, i hope the measures we put in place will allow us to do exactly as the 0br said, bounce back. When the shutters roll up, the car parks are full again, the reports suggest the economy could recover fast, but with 2 million extra people potentially out of work, labour fears todays predictions. Unfortunately they are a good reflection of the situation we are likely to find ourselves in. This really is down to the measures that can be put in place to sustain businesses and jobs. They are absolutely critical, notjust now, but for the future health of our economy. These numbers are well informed guesses, not final or inked m, informed guesses, not final or inked in, but the direction is clear and this virus is dragging the economy down. Jobs are being lost and the National Income is shrinking and that affects not just National Income is shrinking and that affects notjust how ministers balance lifting restrictions in the weeks and months to come, but what governments can and cannot pay for in future, how much they borrow and how much tax we pay. People say i ca ptu re how much tax we pay. People say i capture the essence. Rebecca douglass Wedding Photography business has disappeared for now. |j have been employed since i was 13 andi have been employed since i was 13 and i am now 36, i dont know what it is like to not work. As an entrepreneur there are ways in which you are soul searching and trying to find a way through, where perhaps it feels quite unfair. She is trying to find ways through, a job for so many of us, ajob find ways through, a job for so many of us, a job for the country as well. As well as that immediate shock to the uk economy, the coronavirus pandemic is likely to have a substantial long term effect as well. 0ur economics editor faisal islam has been looking at the likely prospects. Surreal scenes in a closed country, nearly a month on. The cogs of the economy, paused, to give space to protect public health. But its not without its own cost. Today the governments internal forecaster set out what that could be if these scenes last for a further two months. The numbers are huge. Britains economy could shrink by 13 in 2020, in the case of a three month coronavirus lockdown. That would be a far larger contraction than seen during the financial crisis over a decade ago, the world wars, and the only precedent is the depression of 1920 21. Or if there is a bounce back, it will not be under their scenario until next year. This means permanent damage and government borrowing at 14 of the size of the economy, the highest since world war ii. If you were to see the sort of decline in gdp that we think would be consistent with a three month lockdown, then you wouldnt have seen a quarterly fall in the economy like that in living memory. The hope, though, is that that is going to be a temporary rather than a permanent problem, and we dont end up scarring the long term potential of the economy. These are scenarios worse than the gloomy these are scenarios worse than the gloomy Global Forecast from the International Monetary fund. This is something we havent seen in any of our lifetimes. At the time of the Global Financial crisis the Global Economy shrunk by 0. 1 . Right now, in our baseline we are talking about growth at negative 3 so this is the worst since the great depression. So, no surprise that shutting down hits the economy hard, but the sheer magnitude of the hit is shocking. This is what the shutdown looks like in real life in an industrial park, with furniture manufacturers closed, the cranes over there, idle, with freight distributors shut, the brewing depot not working either, and why . To protect public health, to protect the nhs. So, there was a trade off going in to this. Does the same trade off exist coming out of this lift the lockdown to boost the economy . It isnt quite as simple as that. One of britain stop medicine companies, astrazeneca, is helping ramp up testing but the boss says the absence of vaccines and cures has consequences for a return to normality. We have to balance, of course, saving as many lives as possible but also return to a normal life, and restart the economy, because a lot of misery and turbulence is now generated from so many people losing jobs, etc. Its not going to be a few weeks, is it . Its going to be months, maybe longer. If we all do a good job working together, then i hope that we can move out of this acute phase, and into a more chronic situation. A more chronic situation would have a lower number of cases, that we can manage. In the absence of a vaccine, even with a massive economic hit, it wont be as simple as just lifting the lockdown. Faisal islam, bbc news. Despite the rising death toll, the vast majority of people who become ill with covid 19 will survive and recoverfrom it. That is what experts keep on telling us. But the experience of contracting the virus being isolated from loved ones can mean that getting well is a long and challenging process for many. 0ur correspondent sian lloyd has been talking to some of those whove recovered from the most serious symptoms. Covid takes the fight out of you. Everything around me was just melting away, to be fair. Struggling to breathe, and severely dehydrated, this was the moment paramedics arrived at Paul Nicholls home to take him to the Queen Elizabeth hospital. The 52 year old solicitor was seriously ill but, even from his hospital bed, he wanted to thank the nhs and warn others. Dont roll the dice and chance it, his tweet said. One of the nurses said weve probably got to close the curtains now, and i said, are you taking the dead away . And she said yes. It just suddenly struck home, at that stage, that could be me. That could have been me. I cant tell you what this feels like. Its amazing. I want to thank everybody for keeping me going over the last ten days. I really appreciated it. Alison woolford also recovered. Here, smiling on hearing that she was going home after being cared for in hospital in swindon. Ijust knew i had to sort of stay positive and concentrate on getting myself better. And the nurses were helping me with that, because they were telling me about, you know, do deep breathing exercises and, when you can get out of bed, make sure you get out of bed and walk around for ten minutes and get your lungs working. Because thats how you are going to get out of here. Alison captured the view from her window, along with the room where she was nursed back to health, and feels grateful. The number of nurses and Health Care Assistants who came in to me and said, my goodness, isnt it fantastic . You are looking so much better, because you were so ill, i think it was good for them to have some people who were recovering well. Paul nicholls is still on his Journey Towards a full recovery but, every day, gains more strength. Its definitely a life changer. Im not going to forget this. And it makes you very thankful for your family and your friends. It makes you realise that things that you thought were very important, nice holidays, a nice car, they are just trinkets, really. The most important thing, of course, is your life, is your health, and thats something that will definitely stay with me for the rest of my life. Sian lloyd, bbc news, birmingham. As the lockdown continues across the uk, a limited number of shops and businesses have reopened in italy and spain and austria. The European Commission is urging eu members to co ordinate any plans to ease lockdown measures and to maintain rules on social distancing. 0ur rome correspondent mark lowen has more details. A tiny step towards unlocking italy. Camilla cocchis baby shop reopening today after five weeks, as this country dips its toe back into normal life. A limited experiment to see how italians react, with new rules on hygiene and limiting numbers inside. We are glad and excited. Of course its not normal times, so we are worried at the same time. We have to work, we have bills to pay, we have rents to pay, we have wages to pay. Leaving your business, that you started, is like leaving your baby. Customers who are adapting, welcoming a reward, but with apprehension. I feel strange more for them, for the babies, for my children, but we have to be happy and somehow brave. Im really pleased, says eight year old elena, because i havent been out since the 4th of march. Im emotional. Books and stationery shops too can reopen, but some regions think its too early and have kept them shut. Confidence will take some time to return here. Italy found itself as the testing ground for the rest of the world on how to respond to this outbreak and how to lock down a country, and now, once again, its an experiment of how to ease those restrictions. The hope here is that it doesnt become an example of reopening too soon and the virus spiking again. It is a risk that this country is taking. As are some others with far fewer deaths, like austria, opening gardening centres, diy shops and Smaller Stores from today. For cafes a nd restau ra nts, though, its a longer wait. Spain too is cranking back up. Construction and some factory workers restarting. The eu has warned its members that easing restrictions will lead to new cases. Spain couldnt afford that, now having to turn a Convention Centre into a giant Field Hospital for europes second worst outbreak. But its improving, patients are responding well, says this doctor. Today we are discharging eight of the 15 on our award. It will, though, be a slow recovery and we must learn to live with this enemy. Mark lowen, bbc news, rome. In one of his most ill tempered performances since becoming president , donald trump has told journalists he has total power to lift the nationwide lockdown despite the insistence of state governors and legal experts that he has no such authority. The president rejected suggestions that his response to the crisis had been inept and the us currently has more reported cases and deaths than any other country as our north america editor jon sopel reports. America is hurting. The coronavirus has now claimed over 23,000 lives. Nearly 600,000 people have been infected. The economy is reeling, with 17 million made unemployed injust three weeks. And schools are closed. But at last nights white house briefing, the president spent the first 45 minutes railing at the media for being unfairto him. Was the timing of your travel ban botched . A lot, we did a lot. Look, look. You know youre a fake. You know that. Your whole network, the way you cover it, is fake. The big issue is how to reopen the economy. 0n whose say so, and how quickly. We want to be very, very safe. At the same time, we got to get our country open. Do you think there is a possibility, then, that what you do is, you open it incrementally . Do you think people go back to restaurants, concerts, the cinema . I think we are going to boom, i think its going to go quickly. Our people want to get back to work, and i think there is a pent up demand like there hasnt been in a long time. As part of reopening america, do you want to reopen the borders so that people from europe and the uk. At the right time. Very good question, actually. Well, im going to have to take a look. The president says he has total power to decide on ordering the restart of business. The individual states say donald trump doesnt have that power, we do. The president s position isjust absurd. Its not the law, its not the constitution. We dont have a king, we have a president. And entering this reopening phase, if you will, is very, very important. There may be a fight going on over who gets to flick the switch to reopen the us economy. But thats a good sign. It suggests that the curve is being flattened and that social distancing is working. At a grim time, that is a sliver of good news. John sopel, bbc news, washington. Scientists are working on a major study to try to understand why the severity of symptoms for coronavirus can be so varied. A vast store of dna is being analysed at uk biobank which is a Major National and International Health resource. Its thought that genetic differences might explain why some people with no Underlying Health conditions can develop severe illness. 0ur science correspondent Rebecca Morelle has the story. Its a big mystery why coronavirus can strike different people in so many ways. With the lockdown, our streets are empty, so weve had to recreate a crowd. Some people who are infected have no symptoms, or get a mild to moderate disease. About one in five people have a much more severe illness and can go on to need hospital treatment. A small number will die. Scientists think the answer could be in our dna. What looks like an ordinary warehouse could in fact hold the key. Inside is genetic material from half a million volunteers donated to uk biobank. Its followed their health for more than a decade and now it will also track those with covid 19. We are looking at the data in the uk biobank, to understand the differences between those individuals. One of the differences is in their genetics. Are there differences in the genes related to their immune response . Are there differences in their Underlying Health . So it is a uniquely rich set of data, and i think we could go very quickly into getting some very, very important discoveries. Scientists are looking for tiny variations in patients genetic material. They will be examining genes like the ones involved in making a structure on the outside of cells in our airways. It acts as a docking site for the virus, allowing it and infect the cell. It could be the differences in peoples dna changes this, making it easier for the virus to lock on, resulting in a more severe illness. And we are not at the peak, yet. Intensive care units are filling up. And some patients are younger, with no Underlying Health issues. They are now the focus of a new study starting in new york. For diseases like flu and herpes, some people carry genetic variations that make them seriously ill, and this could be the case with coronavirus. It was discovered by our group, and other groups that there were surprisingly inborn areas of immunity that made people, that render human beings especially vulnerable to one microbe, and this inborn immunity can be silent, latent, for decades until infection by that particular microbe. So, what our programme does is essentially testing whether this idea also applies to covid. The rapid spread of coronavirus means theres no shortage of patients to study. Its hope this work could identify those most at risk and help in the hunt for new treatments. Rebecca morelle, bbc news. A 99 Year Old Army veteran has now raised more than £2. 5 million for the nhs after pledging to walk 100 lengths of his garden before his 100th birthday at the end of this month
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