voting in some seats. the other main stories on bbc news at 5. tax officials have raided west ham and newcastle united football clubs as part of an investigation into suspected fraud. strong criticism for surrey police for returning a collection of shotguns to a man who went on to kill his partner and her daughter. a show of unity in south korea as the us military holdsjoint exercises with local forces — as the us senate prepares for security briefing on north korea. and — a warning that britain's immaculate green lawns could become a thing of the past — because of climate change. it's 5 o'clock. our main story is that the prime minister has refused to guarantee that the so—called triple—lock on pensions will continue if the conservatives are re—elected at the general election. at the final session of prime minister's questions before polling day theresa may said that pensioner incomes would continue to rise, but she was accused of abandoning a commitment previously made by the conservatives. labour says it will keep the lock in place. our political correspondent iain watson reports. the speaker: questions to the prime minister. it's fair to say pmqs can be a rowdy affair, but today it felt even more like a political rally than a parliamentary occasion as the election battle lines were drawn. the prime minister launched a pre—emptive strike. even beforejeremy corbyn asked a question, theresa may attacked the record of the labour leader's team on security. the plan to disband mi5, to disarm our police and scrap our nuclear deterrent was endorsed by the right honourable gentleman's policy chief and even by his shadow chancellor. and in a sign that they will fight the campaign onjeremy corbyn‘s leadership, conservative mps cheered when he announced how long he had been labour leader. when i became labour leader 18 months ago... this could be the last time that theresa may and jeremy corbyn clash head—to—head before the election. she won't take part in television debates, so the labour leader wanted to denounce just about the entire record of her government today, on health, housing and pensions. and he road—tested a few campaign slogans too. here's one coming up. many people feel the system is rigged against them. then he broadened the attack. strong leadership is about standing up for the many, not the few. but when it comes to the prime minister and the conservatives, they only look after the richest, not the rest. they are strong against the weak and weak against the strong. labour are determined that the election campaign shouldn't be conducted on the prime minister's terms, so you may have noticed there thatjeremy corbyn did not mention brexit. theresa may, unsurprisingly, did the complete opposite. every vote for him is a vote for a chaotic brexit. every vote for me is a vote to strengthen our hand in negotiating the best dealfor britain. expect to hear a lot more of that over the next six weeks. meanwhile, the snp deputy leader chose to campaign on the issue of the state pension. and accused the prime minister of dodging the issue. pensioners right across this land are right to conclude that this tory prime minister plans to ditch the triple lock on the state pension. it is the conservative party that have improved the lot of pensioners across this country. and those pensioner incomes would continue to increase under a conservative government. and the lib dem leader also attacked his party's former coalition colleagues, the conservatives. 20 years ago, she berated the conservative party for being the nasty party, but her party has never been nastier. but he saved some of his most stinging criticism for labour. the legacy of this parliament is the utter, abject failure of her majesty's official opposition to effectively hold her government to account for any of it. this was the longest pmqs on record, lasting the best part of an hour. but politics is about to move away from westminster. it will now be up to the voters to put the politicians on the spot. iain watson, bbc news. our political correspondent alex forsyth is at westminster. to start with the triple lock on pensions. how significant is it that the prime minister today did not wa nt to the prime minister today did not want to go as far as to guarantee its future. this was the final pmqs before the election, the final time the house of commons will look as it does so no surprise the parties tried to campaign on territory where they feel strong. and we saw tried to campaign on territory where they feel strong. and we saneremy corbyn go on the nhs, house prices and the tories going on the economy and the tories going on the economy and strong leadership. also why the snp chose to target theresa may about the pensions triple lock. what that means is the current guarantee that means is the current guarantee that state pensions rise either by average earnings, inflation or 2.5% whichever is higher, though something labour is committed to delivering under the next government but theresa may would only say that a future conservative government would continue to ensure state pensions did rise. for the tories there are many people who are traditional tory supporters of pensionable age so clearly political rivals see they can make some capitalfrom this rivals see they can make some capital from this at this stage and the tories will have to address this at some stage in the campaign and perhaps in their manifesto. let's talk about the shape of the campaign we already know the prime minister is not keen to take part in the traditional leaders debates. but there has been a development today with jeremy corbyn there has been a development today withjeremy corbyn as well. there has been a development today with jeremy corbyn as well. the debates have somehow form part of the traditional election campaigns now. theresa may said she would not doatv now. theresa may said she would not do a tv debate but would go and a nswer do a tv debate but would go and answer questions gci’oss do a tv debate but would go and answer questions across the country. jeremy corbyn said today he ruled out any opposition party debate, he would only take part in a debate which involved a head—to—head with theresa may because the labour party wa nts to theresa may because the labour party wants to shape the election as a choice between labour and conservative government. as a consequence of him saying that the lib dems accused labour and the tories of running scared. labour has announced plans to scrap the one percent cap on pay increases for nhs staff in england — and to end tuition fees for student nurses and midwives. it will be partly funded through an increase to corporation tax, but the plans won't be fully costed until labour's election manifesto is published. our health editor hugh pym has been looking at labour's plans. marches by student nurses and midwives in protest at plans in england to scrap state funded bursaries. from august nurses and midwives starting training will need to take out student loans, as with other courses. the government argues this will encourage universities to create a lot more places. but ucas figures showed university applications were nearly a quarter lower this year in england. labour says, if elected, it will restore the bursaries due to be scrapped in august. the party also wants to end the 1% pay cap for health staff. it says its policies will be paid for by reversing corporation tax cuts. labour also plans to get regulators to draw up guidelines on safe staffing in hospitals and then legislate to make hospitals abide by them. we think it's deeply unfair that our nhs staff have had to suffer from a 1% pay cap continually under this conservative government. we're saying we are going to scrap that cap, we're going to give our nhs staff the pay they deserve and we're going to ask the independent public sector pay bodies to look at the evidence again and come forward with a fair package for our nhs staff, because they deserve better than what they're getting under this conservative government. but the conservatives argue that labour's funding plans for the measures didn't stack up. there's always a case for paying nurses more, they work extremely hard. but labour have already promised this money from corporation tax 12 times. they promised it for university tuition fees, for the schools budget. and if you don't really have that money, if you then lift that pay cap, what you end up having to do is to employ fewer nurses and that means less safe hospital wards. the liberal democrats said labour was not being honest with the public about the revenue raised to pay for the policies. hugh pym, bbc news. with me is danielle tiplady — a community nurse in east london. thanks for coming in to talk to us. let's talk about this policy. this cap and lifting the cap. what is your response to that. lifting the cap is an amazing idea. since 2010 we had our pay capped and we lose 110w we had our pay capped and we lose now about 14% which is driving nhs staff into living in rural poverty. we have staff going to food banks, using payday loans, accessing hardship funds. and people are struggling to get by. the consequence of that is people are leaving the nhs because they simply cannot afford to work there any more. we have a 211,000 vacancy rate in nursing and this is fuelled by the pay cap. what is your answer then to jamie cullum —— jeremy hunt who said ok, we can understand there are who said ok, we can understand there a re pressures who said ok, we can understand there are pressures but if you lift the cap it means there will be fewer people employed so there is a direct impact on staffing. that is his case. we already have two people employed. this needs to be looked at, that pay is causing a recruitment and retention crisis. there's no point brilliant more staff into a leaking bucket, you need to fix the problems and have good working conditions. they can put as many people as they like in there but they will not stay if the pay cap is not lifted because people cannot afford to live. next year i might have to go into debt to survive because it affects me so much. people cannot afford to get by. jeremy hunt and the government need to sit down and think about this rationally and talk about what is going on out there because it cannot continue. the nhs cannot continue if this is not lifted. just a thought about morale, you said people are facing hardships, what is the kind of morale within the profession and what are your collea g u es profession and what are your colleagues telling you about their sense of where they're going in terms of theirjobs. morale is the lowest it has ever been. since 2010 we have not been listened to. we have not been listened to by this government. we speak out as much as we can and try to get them to listen and no one listens. if for seven yea rs and no one listens. if for seven years you are not listen to your not going to feel happy. take into account that working conditions are awful, people are not happy, people are sad that they love theirjobs as it breaks their hearts what is going on and the fact that they're being pushed into leaving. i know one friend for example who was being forced to sell a flat because she cannot survive on her nursing salary. imagine how that feels for someone. people are so unhappy across not just nurses, someone. people are so unhappy across notjust nurses, everybody. but if you interview ministers of the prime minister the other day said they have billions of extra funding for the nhs in recent years which has gone into the service they said to address the pressure points. do you accept that a priority has to ta ke do you accept that a priority has to take place and if you have pressure points in accident and emergency for example that money should go to those areas where there is the greatest crisis. absolutely money needs to go to the right places but the government are not being honest about the funding they have been putting in and that has been said by the health committee from their own party. they're not putting in the money they say they are and the money they say they are and the money going into it is being spent on things like expensive pfi contracts and if we took that money way actually and put it into patient ca re way actually and put it into patient care and staff that would be best for everyone. a final thought, this campaign, a policy point today, many people have been talking in terms purely of brexit and the associated issues with this campaign. what are your thoughts on the potential for debating the future of the health service in a campaign where so many people are fixated on one particular issue. about brexit? of course there issue. about brexit? of course there is an implication about brexit in terms of people coming into work for the nhs. all of the issues together, if you mean in terms of brexit...” mean focusing on exit instead of the nhs but now you have the chance to raise some of the issues in the health service as they affect people like you. the nhs should be a key focus of any government and actually it is something that looks after every single person. i'm pleased that today the nhs and nursing has become at the forefront of policies because for so many years we have been ignored. and ifeel the government have been using brexit to hide the problems in the nhs. and not address them for the last months. it cannot continue. the nhs should be the focus of everyone's thoughts. thank you for coming in. the former liberal democrat mp david ward has been sacked by his party amid allegations of anti—semitism. he was going to stand as the lib dem candidate in his old constituency of bradford east. in a statement the party leader tim farron said that mr ward was unfit to represent the party. there's plenty more on the election on our website. you can follow the latest campaigning and developments at bbc.co.uk/news. west ham and newcastle united football clubs have been raided by tax officials as part of an investigation into suspected income tax and national insurance fraud. nearly 200 tax officers are part of an investigation into alleged fraud in football. 0ur sports correspondent natalie pirks is at the london stadium — home to west ham. we understand around 50 hmrc officers turned up at the taxpayer funded home of west ham at around eight o'clock. up until half an hour ago we could still see some officers clearly through the window, still hear some eight or nine hours later. boxes of evidence were lined up ready to be taken away. we understand they seized business records and documents, computers and mobile phones. we also know that st james' park, home to newcastle united, was raided and in the minds high—profile arrests of art that managing director lee charnley was arrested. he has been at the club for several years. this comes just days after newcastle were promoted back to the premier league. the training grounds of both clubs were also raided. and we now know officers from hmrc visited chelsea this morning. they are not under investigation, they were not raided, a spokesman told the bbc a connection to the wider investigation, hmrc requested certain information which the club will provide. thank you very much. this is bbc news at five — the headlines. the last prime ministers questions before polling day, jeremy corbyn and theresa may traded blows about the nhs and security and the quality of leadership. tax officials have raided west ham and newcastle united football clubs as part of an investigation into suspected fraud. surrey police have strongly criticised, been criticised for returning a collection of shotguns to this man who went on to give his partner and her daughter. and its board is at the end ofjoy barton and his football career, the 34—year—old has been banned for 18 months after admitting an fa misconduct charge related to betting. ronnie 0'sullivan has been knocked out of the world snooker championships, beaten by ding junhui in the quarterfinals. and british number one johanna konta is in the quarterfinals. and british number onejohanna konta is through to the last 16 of the stuttgart open tennis after beating naomi 0sacko of japan in three sets. more of those stories at 5:30pm. the businesswoman who took the government to court to force a parliamentary vote on the start of the brexit process has today launched a campaign to oppose what she and her colleagues call an "extreme brexit". gina miller says her best for britain initiative will target marginal seats in the general election to try to return members of parliament who are committed to keeping the brexit options open. a crowd —funded drive has already been backed by nearly 10,000 people and raised almost £300,000. i'll be speaking to gina miller in a moment. but first let's hear some of the remarks from today's launch. we know that people are worried about the future direction of this country. they believe in parliamentary sovereignty and they believe, as we do, that only tactical voting in this election can ensure that parliament plays its full role in the future of our country. they believe mps need to be strong for an open britain. the idea that parliament can rubberstamp a binary deal or no deal option put by a future government and ignore any other alternatives would reduce democracy to a mere footnote. during this campaign we will educate and empower people to make a tactical vote and chose mps who will do the best for britain. with me is gina miller. we last spoke when the article 50 date was set and you were at pains to say it was not about stopping the brexit process. but trying to keep options open and trying to avoid ha rd options open and trying to avoid hard brexit. people today are still saying what you now doing with this campaign shows again that you are involved in some kind of process to try to bring the whole thing grinding toa try to bring the whole thing grinding to a halt. i think it would be extraordinary if i could bring everything to a halt. through my activities with a small group of people but actually a growing group. this is the same concerns i had when i began the article 50 case which was about what kind of democracy we want, what kind of parliament we want. if this election will result in many people suspecting, a landslide victory for the conservatives, where will the different voices being parliament, why will be the people holding government to account. because it has to be about what is best for britain, we need principled parliamentarians who are going to do thejob. so what parliamentarians who are going to do the job. so what we need to do is encourage people by giving them the information and then they make a choice. it will be up to the voters to make the choice. i'm interested in the way you go about looking at areas which might be fertile territory for you. so what are your criteria? it territory for you. so what are your criteria 7 it has territory for you. so what are your criteria? it has only been a week since we set this up so we're going through this process of looking at that. we feel it is too early, we have commissioned polling and we we look back at some of the other people and what happened in the last election and what happened in the referendum vote, that is now updated and we need to find out how people feel now and what the swings are likely to be. we're looking at data now and we will have that we think by next week. then we will start to look at where we can make any influence. but it will not be as making any kind of call, it will be done by looking at data, looking at certain criteria and methodology that takes us away from party politics. it is about those who can make a difference in the vote. when you say you will not make the call, but you will be guiding and enabling, is that fair to say? there are three things we want to do in this campaign. there is an apathy with people around elections, voting. 0ne with people around elections, voting. one of the things we want to do it inspire people to save voting isa do it inspire people to save voting is a privilege we have in the uk and please do not throw it away and try to engage with people to integrate them to turn out to vote. add to say to young people brexit will affect the rest of your adult life, you must get involved. and the other is to say there is an opportunity for you now to look at candidates who are strong and principled and you feel will stand by those principles when it comes to brexit and vote on all options at the end of whatever time we end up with a negotiated package. you said this is not party political, when you look at wawrinka has happened in britain, some conservative mps walking away from that because before that exercise which was to do with looking at seats where candidates could be not be seen as being former remain voters, they walked away because it did seem to be overtly party political. are you in the same area? lots of people in the space we occu py lots of people in the space we occupy what the end goal of what we believe is best for the uk. but our path is very much focused on where people, it is not our money but donations, where we can get the best bang for the buck and people can choose mps candidates who will make a difference and really represent them. so were not being party political. the only thing that could change that would depend of course on whether they want to accept money. it might be they're not able to. but we are going to try our best to. but we are going to try our best to stick to the fact that this is about candidates who believe in being strong and standing by their principles. just listening to a few experts today talking about the make—up of some of these constituencies, one said clearly really you're talking about quite a small number of constituencies where an incidence of tactical voting could have a measurable —— a measurable impact on the outcome. no matter what the level of effort you put in, this part of the analysis suggested that the overall result of what you do could be quite limited in any case. and certainly not possibly affect the outcome. in any case. and certainly not possibly affect the outcomelj in any case. and certainly not possibly affect the outcome. i think the expert you mentioned then said that the polls are not in yet and information is not in so we think it is too early to call. we also look at what happened in canada as a perfect case study, at that time they said what doing will never work, it was an organisation similar to our organisation. but they changed the face of canadian politics because people really got involved. so were notjust talking but doing and it is now up to people to make that choice. you said earlier, since the last democratic exercise, people may have changed their minds. do you mean by that that in your experience lots of people who voted remain are now reconciled to the fact that the brexit process is happening and for that reason they may be more minded to vote in a certain way and you need to take that on board. to vote in a certain way and you need to take that on boardlj to vote in a certain way and you need to take that on board. i think you need to take both sides on board. we have come across remainer and leavers who have either change their mind orjust want to have the choice. we're trying to give people information and empower them to make that choice about what they think is best for britain. it is not about as telling them what to do but i agree that there has been a shift and we have come across that. thank you. surrey police have been strongly criticised for returning a collection of shotguns to a man who went on to kill his partner and her daughter. 82—year—old john lowe shot christine and lucy lee at his puppy farm in farnham in 2014. a report by the independent police complaints commission has found serious failings at the surrey force. 0ur correspondent duncan kennedy has more details. the white—haired figure ofjohn lowe moments after he shot dead christine and lucy lee at his puppy farm in surrey. christine, who was his partner, and her daughter lucy were killed with a shotgun. this shotgun. that had been returned tojohn lowe by surrey police. lowe, seen here at the police station, was jailed for life. today the independent police complaints commission said that surrey police had made a series of errors in handing the gun back to him. but there were lessons for all police forces. we found systematic failings for the local force and also we feel there are lessons to be learned nationally for police forces to ensure that their firearms licensing teams are up to the job. it was in march 2013 thatjohn lowe had his shotguns seized by surrey police after allegations that he had made threats to kill. that complaint was later withdrawn. injuly 2013, the shotguns and license were returned to him. seven months later christine and lucy lee were shot dead with one of the weapons. stacy banner, the daughter of christine and sister to lucy, said the police had been warned aboutjohn lowe. i told the police how dangerous he was. i told the police that he would kill. and he did. surrey police have admitted mistakes were made in this case. they say the medical records ofjohn lowe were not properly investigated and that a full risk assessment was not carried out before the guns were given back to him. senior officers say they have apologised to the family of christine and lucy lee. do you accept that if those guns had not been returned then christine and lucy lee could still be alive? well, clearly he used those shotguns in a double murder, a horrific case, seven months after they were returned. i don't think we can ever be asked to see into the future, but clearly what should happen in this case is a better risk assessment should have been done and those guns should not have been returned. one member of staff from surrey police was sacked over the case, another retired. the deaths of christine and lucy lee have traumatised the family and changed the way guns are now controlled in the uk. the oscar—winning director jonathan demme has died at the age of 73. he won an award for silence of the lambs and had been battling cancer of the oesophagus. his publicist confirmed he died at home this morning. the headlines in a moment and catch up on the sport as well. but now the weather forecast. good evening. it has been a pretty lively day for some parts especially central and eastern parts of england where we have seen a rash of showers. a mixture of rain, hail, sleet and snow. driven on by a cold wind from the north. those showers remain for the next couple of hours but they fade overnight and then there is a frost developing. further north five or 6 degrees, further south some rural spots well below freezing. pretty cold for this late in spring. a bright start for southern areas, cloud coming down from the north and patchy rain developing. but it should brighten up developing. but it should brighten up in scotland. closer to 11 or 12 for belfast dan carter. friday looks like a reasonable day for most places, some cloud but brighter spells as well. some showers around but most places will be dry and the wind quite liked as well. —— light. these are the headlines. theresa may and jeremy corbyn have been trading blows about the nhs, security and leadership in the last prime minister's questions before the general election. west ham and newcastle united football general election. west ham and newcastle u nited football clu bs general election. west ham and newcastle united football clubs have been graded as part of an investigation into suspected fraud. surrey police have been severely criticised for returning guns to this man who later shot dead his partner and her daughter. tensions over north korea, the us military holds joint exercises with south korea. now the sport with will perry. good evening. burnley midfielderjoey barton has been banned from football for 18 months after admitting a football association charge in relation to betting. he's said this could effectively be the end of his career and has also admitted that he's addicted to gambling. 0ur senior football reporter ian dennis has more on the story. it was alleged that between the 26th of march 2006 and the 13th of may 2016, joey barton placed 1260 bets on the result, progress or conduct of any other match or competition thatis of any other match or competition that is in breach of fa rules. he was fined £30,000. his 18 month suspension is with immediate effect. the 34—year—old joined burnley in january as a free agent until the end of the season and has made 18 appearances. barton plans to appeal the length of his suspension. 0nto the world snooker championship and five—times champion ronnie 0'sullivan is out — beaten 13 frames to ten in the quarter—finals by last year's runner—up ding junhui. a fantastic match was settled by a century from ding — after 0'sullivan had made a tournament best break of 146 earlier in the session. 0'sullivan warmly congratulated ding at the end who now goes on to met mark selby in the last four in a repeat of last year's final. he's made me grow up. he was always my target to play for snooker, to win it, to be like him. ifocused, practised every day and say this is the top man in snooker, i want to be like him. a new twenty20 cricket competition will start in the summer of the year 2020 after the ecb voted heavily in favour of a change in the governing body's constitution. 0ur reporter patrick gearey told me it was a historic moment for english cricket. ever since victorian times the game has been based around counties. after this vote of 41 ecb members, 38 supported a change which will allow the creation of eight non—county teams to take part in a new t20 competition which starts in the summer of t20. it will be aimed at young groups and families. the ecb feels it is important to the future of the game. county cricket will continue around it, but this new competition will rival the likes of the ipl in india and the australian big bash. an overwhelming change for english cricket. surrey and england all—rounder zafar ansari has announced his retirement from cricket, with immediate effect, saying he had other ambitions he wants to fulfil. ansari is only 25 and began playing with surrey at the age of eight. he made his test debut last october, shortly before he obtained a master's in history. he plans to explore another career, potentially in law. he's told me on a few occasions that cricket is just a part of his life, it's not his whole life. he is a highly intelligent individual, he's got more degrees and everything else than most of us put together. he has seen this as, yes, he's played for surrey and england and now he's going to explore new avenues, and have a different type of career. britain's joanna konta is through to the second round of the stuttgart 0pen in germany, beating japanese qualifier naomi 0saka in three sets konta was playing her first wta event since winning the miami 0pen and won a difficult first set on the tie—break. 0saka soon presented even more of a problem to konta, she immediately broke her and went on to win the second set 6—3. but konta moved up a gear and after close to two hours the world number seven took the deciding set 6—1, and with it the match. maria sharapova is about to start her match in stuttgart as she marks a return to tennis following a 15 month doping suspension. the former wimbledon champion is a wild card and herfirst opponent roberta vinci has already said she's opposed to the russian receiving her invite. that's all the sport for now. i'll have more in sportsday at 6:30pm. the us military has begun installing parts of an advanced missile defence system at a site in south korea, amid continuing high tensions with north korea over its missile and nuclear programmes. in washington, the entire us senate will receive a security briefing on north korea at the white house today, in a highly unusual move. from south korea, our correspondent stephen evans reports. just a few miles south of north korea, 2,000 american and south korean troops practise with real ammunition. they attack targets in the hills with fearsome weaponry. a true show of force. and a show of unity between the military of the two nations, all watched from the grandstand by south korean spectators, unfazed by the current war of words between washington and north korea. she says, as we see in these drills, kim jong un will know how strong the south korean military is. and i don't think he'd ever dare to attack us. he says, "i'm certainly more worried than before because of president trump's hardline policy. kim jong un is not the type of person to be pushed around." north korea says this is a rehearsal for invasion. china doesn't like them either. it wants the exercises stopped and for north korea to stop testing missiles and nuclear devices. it thinks that kind of moratorium, a quid pro quo, could be the basis for a deal. it's not likely to happen. right in the south of the peninsula, under cover of darkness, the us deployed an anti—missile system called thad, designed to shoot down north korean attacks. there were protests. local people fear the system will be targeted. in north korea, there were also war exercises. north korea has thousands of big artillery guns capable of hitting the south korean capital seoul. and the 25 million people who live there. stephen evans, bbc news, south korea. stephen evans with the latest in south korea. so, as we've heard, the entire us senate will receive a security briefing on north korea at the white house later. let's cross live now to new york and our correspondent nick bryant. just underline for us, when we talk about a security briefing for the entire senate, it's not something you see everyday. it really isn't. i've been racking my brains to figure out when it happened last and i can't do it. the members of the senate say they will take a field trip down pennsylvania avenue to the white house. they are going to the building next door, the executive office building as it is called. there an auditorium that can accommodate them and they will wrap it with special security stuff, a real technical description there! to stop any eavesdropping. they will receive this briefing from rex tillerson and james mattis. there is a possibility also that donald trump might drop by as well. the white house is saying don't read too much into the venue for this meeting. a senate majority leader here asked for a briefing from the white house about the current thinking within the administration on north korea. donald trump said, come on down to the white house. the white house says it's more about the hospitality that the president likes to extend the members of congress rather than be sensitivity. but it obviously comes when tensions are ratcheting up. just a thought, at this point, about the strategy. we've been reporting on events in south korea. what is the current thinking? is there a settled view right now in washington and new york at the un about what the next step should be to deal with north korea? about what the next step should be to dealwith north korea? i'll give you a sneak preview about what the administration's message will be to the 100 senators. senior republican senators spoke to the white house to the president on monday and he said iam adamant the president on monday and he said i am adamant north korea will not be able to develop a nuclear missile that will have the capability of striking north america. what are the options to stop that happening? it's very difficult. a military strike from america on the nuclear reactor that delivers the plutonium for north korean nuclear bombs. they reckon there are 15 of them already although they haven't got the capability of reaching america. north korea would probably counter—attacked and there are 10 million people sitting in seoul right now who are worried about that possibility. clinton considered a military strike against north korea, he stopped because of the fear of huge casualty numbers in south korea. nixon did too and he backed off. the white house is saying that option is still on the table and i think that is directed as much against beijing as against pyongyang. what they want china to do is to exercise its influence on north korea, to stop it carrying out further nuclear tests and to get it to freeze its nuclear programme. thank you. the chief executive of barclays has warned against imposing strict immigration rules after brexit. he said that ensuring eu citizens can continue working in the uk financial sector should be a prime concern for british banks. speaking at a summit of business leaders in london, jes staley said london must continue to attract talent after britain leaves the eu. we are making sure we have access to the best and brightest of talent around the world, coming to london and the uk. it is perhaps the most important thing for the financial industry, perhaps even more important than passporting. particularly as the talent comes to the university system. if you think about start—up businesses, young people all over the world coming to the uk, going through the education system and providing that new intellectual capital for a bank like ba rclays, intellectual capital for a bank like barclays, that's tremendously important. next week will be the 10th anniversary of the disappearance of madeleine mccann. detectives say they are still pursuing what they describe as a "critical lead" in the case. madeleine was three when she went missing during a family holiday in portugal. her parents kate and gerry mccann say the 10th anniversary is a "horrible marker of stolen time". they've promised never to give up looking for their daughter. our home affairs correspondent tom symonds reports. ten years, no answers. a desperate search with the media following every step. what happened here? where is madeleine mccann? this is still a missing persons inquiry. despite 2014's extensive police searches in portugal, there is no definitive evidence she is dead. for six years, with government money, the metropolitan police have been reviewing everything from scratch. we have a significant line of inquiry which is worth pursuing. and because it's worth pursuing, it could provide an answer. but until we've gone through it, i will not know whether we're going to get there or not. and that's all the police are saying. this investigation was once pursued by up to 30 officers. now there are just four on the case and a handful of leads. but while there is still something to investigate, there is still hope. madeleine's parents have described the ten year anniversary as a horrible marker of stolen time. they've released a statement promising never to give up. there have been many challenges and low points along the way, they said, but the "warmth, encouragement and positivity we have experienced from the quiet majority has undoubtedly sustained us and maintained our faith in human goodness". this is how madeleine might have looked as she has grown up. her 14th birthday is the week after next. tom symonds, bbc news. we've been talking about the main developments in the party ‘s election campaigns today. theresa may attacking jeremy corbyn over defence, labour talking about the nhs, the effect of the brexit process. but how do parties make decisions on how to campaign? the answer, or at least part of it, is polling. 0ne poll published today by ipsos mori put the conservatives on 49% of the vote, with labour on 26, the lib dems on 13 and ukip on 4. a strong lead for the tories, but as we know from experience polls can't always be trusted. many of them predicted a hung parliament in 2015, but david cameron won a majority. then there was the brexit referendum, most pundits expected a remain vote. so let's have a look at what happened last sunday, when a number of snapshots of voting intention were published. this is a comres poll, putting the conservatives on 50 points, twice that of labour, on 25, and dramatically outstripping the lib dems and ukip, on 11 and seven points each. it led to this sunday mirror front page: "tories on highest level since 1991". but on the same day, the mail on sunday published a survation poll putting the conservatives ten points lower than the mirror's estimate, on a0%, just 11 points ahead of labour on 29, and 11 each for the lib dems and ukip. it led to this front page for the mail: "tory lead slashed in half, may plummets by 11 points, tory turmoil". so which is right? they can't both be. are any of them? joining me in the studio is professor patrick sturgis from the university of southampton, who chaired an inquiry into what went wrong with the 2015 general election polls. i'm also joined by deborah mattinson from the consultancy, britain thinks, which advises companies on strategy and communications. and from washington, we are joined by the pollster and communication consultant, frank lu ntz. thank you forjoining us. can i start with 2015, and to ask a blunt question given that i hinted at it there. what would you say to viewers was the main thing that happened in 2015, which discredited lots of professional work that's going on? well, there are lots of things that can go wrong with poles. that's one of the reasons why you see this moving around from one pole to next. sometimes they can all combine in a way that pulls them apart and so on. what we saw in the 2015 enquiry was to look at each of those kind of areas in turn and tried to eliminate them from our enquiries one by one. we ended up with a prime culprit, that was representative samples. what pollsters have to do is get their samples to look essentially like the population of voters, in terms of their age, sex, where they live in the country. they've got to get that to match as closely as possible. so fundamentally what happened was that the pollsters ended up with too many labour voters and not enough conservatives in their samples. the various weighting adjustments and statistical things that they do afterwards didn't really save them from that. but what's the problem. how confident do you think people can be that lessons have been learned and that polling done at this point, we may talk about france in a second because those polls seemed more accurate. have lessons been learned?” those polls seemed more accurate. have lessons been learned? i think lessons have been learned and i think all of the main pollsters have done some of the adjustments that you've just been talking about. i also would say, i mean, if we look in this country at the referendum, i think what we see is a different thing at play. which is how the results are interpreted by the media. we've just seen up with the headlines. a lot of people say to me, how did the polls get it so wrong in 2015? they did, and again in the referendum, actually i would say they didn't get it wrong in the referendum. i'm not sure we are going to entirely agree. but we were tracking a poll of polls all the way through the campaign period and actually they were neck and neck all the way through which was pretty much what the result was. when you added it up, more polls predicted leave than remain. but the way it was interpreted by political commentators suggested that remain had it in the bag. it's because the figures allowed them to interpreted in that way or not? actually the figures should have said it's too close to call. confirmation by as it's called, it's where you believe people who say the things that you already think and basically, particularly in the westminster bubble, everybody thought it was in the bag for remain and that's what they chose to believe. frank, some thoughts. 0n the day of the referendum, you were saying that day you thought leave would win. why was that, and is this down to ultimately the quality of sampling? yes, and there are three components. the first is understanding turnout. we asked three questions to decide whether the person we were polling was an actual voter. 0ur weighting process at the end accurately predicted the outcome because we knew who was going to vote. secondly, you have to give people a sense of anonymity. it's very difficultjust sense of anonymity. it's very difficult just before an election to get people to commit to what they are going to do, if they think there's any kind of public pressure. if there are of voting one way or another could be uncovered. and thirdly, to be able to know the intensity of that individual. they strongly for leave remain? what we found was that the remain voters we re found was that the remain voters were reluctant and the leave voters we re were reluctant and the leave voters were passionate. if you combine those three you can get it right. i think the americans have got it wrong, the british and other countries in europe, israel as well, is that they don't measure the passion of the voter. in places where you get 75% turnout, if you aren't measuring passion and commitment to vote, you want measuring what's going to happen on election day. that's fascinating. give us a parallel case, what happened around the polls that preceded presidential election day last year? exactly. on election day itself, the exit pollsters were asking people would you please participate. 0ne asking people would you please participate. one out of nine said no and almost all of those people were trump voters. that's why they got it wrong by 2—3%. but with the small towns, the rebel areas voted in re cord towns, the rebel areas voted in record numbers, whereas the urban populations turnout was low. that was worth 2—3 points. complying the two and the exit polling was completely wrong in america because they didn't forecast the actual voting pool — — they didn't forecast the actual voting pool —— combine the two. they didn't forecast the actual voting pool -- combine the two. your thoughts on this intensity, the passion point. i'm sure there will be viewers wondering how you measure that and how you start factoring that and how you start factoring that into your equations. i'm a bit sceptical that there is any kind of silver bullet for this problem. polling is a difficult thing, it's a moving target, you are asking people who aren't very interested in politics, there's also saw things you've got to get that. if you look at the broad sweep of history of polling in this country and internationally, these kinds of polling misses happen in the uk every 20 years. we should expect to see errors on the difference between the conservative and labour parties of around 4—5%. that's what history shows us. it's not going to save labour this time, even if that happens. the polls we looked at earlier were pretty clear on that. the writing up element, i'm fascinated by that. even recently having seen these polls, suggesting the conservatives were in a strong position, and yet i see analysis from some people saying, don't be so confident about this. if you look at the number of seats that will actually impact on the final result, it's not quite so clear, there are lots and lots of safe seats in this country so it's all down to a group of seats. it's the way these things are interpreted. absolutely, and often it is interpreted by someone who has a political axe to grind. the two headlines we looked at make that point very clearly. 0ne the two headlines we looked at make that point very clearly. one thing i'd like to add to the analysis, picking up on frank's point, is about the emotional rather than rational point. i think your right that it's very hard to do that in a poll. i'd like to make a case for qualitative research alongside quantitative research. in other words, focus groups being used alongside polling, and using that qualitative information to give you that emotional insight and to help you to shape that poll to give you more insight in the end. frank, we've seen you handle a focus group, your port on the parallel process? it's brilliant because it gives you a feel. polling is not supposed to project elections. the whole purpose of using market researchers to understand why. so that i need to know those people who haven't made up know those people who haven't made up their minds, i need to know their most important issue, their most important attributes and character traits among the leaders of political parties. i want to know what the final decision—making process is going to be. you can only get that through qualitative research. i want to say to my colleagues there, we ask questions, how interested are you in this election on a 0— ten bases. anything less than ten, and they may not be voting. we then ask them what previous elections they voted in. if they've missed one, they could miss more. thirdly we ask them how much do you follow this election on a daily basis. you combine all three of those statistics and we can define with about a 97% accuracy who's going to vote and who isn't. do you buy that? no. laughter i don't, . .. do you buy that? no. laughter i don't,... we've done it and i would urge british pollsters to do so too. there has been a study done recently which shows its more difficult than that to predict turnout. you've got all sorts of intervening factors between someone telling you i'm going to vote, maybe they get stuck ina going to vote, maybe they get stuck in a trafficjam or have some health problems. it's very, very difficult to know at the individual level whether people are going to vote. more these days pollsters are moving away from asking questions about whether you are going to vote, because of those kinds of uncertainties, to using more model —based approaches from previous election surveys. waiting the data with what you know to be the truth. we'll see more of that in the uk this time. tactical voting, can we'll see more of that in the uk this time. tacticalvoting, can i come onto this. we spoke to gina miller earlier, she is operating in a very specific area to do with her interest. we really in a position where we might say that tactical could have a significant impact on this campaign or not? there's always tactical voting. the extent to which it's going to make a bigger difference this time... we are talking about the polls, and i think that's one of the problems the pollsters may have, in that normally we can translate the shares they come up with from their polls in two seat shares. using uniform swing or something like that, it works pretty well. it may be that the difference between the vote shares and the seats is a lot more different this time. that combined with turnout as well, i think, time. that combined with turnout as well, ithink, makes time. that combined with turnout as well, i think, makes this a particularly ha rd well, i think, makes this a particularly hard election to call, notwithstanding that the overall picture is quite straightforward. frank, do you think tactical voting is going to be a big element in this election? we've never seen an election? we've never seen an election like the one you've about the have, because you've never had a process like brexit. in this case, we really don't know what the impact might be. thank you forjoining us. weather now, here's jay wynne. good evening, it's been a lively day for some parts of the uk. a whole rash of showers as you can see on the radar. some rain, hail, sleet and snow, with a bit of sunshine in between. we'll see the blue skies reappearing and a blue tinge with a frost developing. further north, cloud and patchy rain developing. 5-6d but cloud and patchy rain developing. 5—6d but newcastle but down in the southin 5—6d but newcastle but down in the south in rural areas it could go down to lower temperatures. rain is moving ever southwards which should brighten up in scotland later in the afternoon. looking ahead to friday it looks like a reasonable day for most places. a fair bit of cloud, some sunshine too, very little rain and also the winds are quite light. a final showdown in parliament before theresa may and jeremy corbyn go on the campaign trail. the last premises questions before the election, the tories say leadership isa election, the tories say leadership is a key issue. every vote for him is a key issue. every vote for him isa is a key issue. every vote for him is a vote for a chaotic brexit. every vote for me is a vote to strengthen our hand in negotiating the best deal for britain. services, accusing the tories of backing the rich. they are strong against the weak, and weak against the strong. far... farfrom building a strong economy, schools and our nhs are being cut. we'll be looking closely at labour's promise to raise nhs pay in england. also tonight: