usual winter pressures, and you've got a wave of people who are off sick because they have got covid or indeed for other reasons, but covid is a very substantially can to beating to beat into that. we now expect the peak in younger people to come before the peak in older people so it may well be that the workforce problems start to decrease before we start to see any decrease in the number of people coming into hospital, in fact, they could still, very well, be going up for quite some time. so, workforce problems also apply to things like transport and critical services and so on. so i think they will end up in two slightly different places because of this age effect. in terms of threshold, for the nhs it is less that there is a single threshold, and more that little by little, routine and then urgent but not emergency, and then... things are rolled back, so little by little, the nhs has to retreat to the most

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