This is bbc news these are the latest headlines in the uk and around the world. A brexit announcement is expected in the coming hours, are as the signs from london and brussels suggest a deal is close. The remaining differences between the two camps have been narrow but deep in particular over fishing rights. More than 6,000 lorries spend another night stranded outside the port of dover with drivers waiting to be tested for covid 19 before theyre allowed into france. Stay at home from boxing day. The message to another 6 Million People in england as the toughest level of covid restrictions are widened. President trump has issued another round of pardons among them two key allies who were convicted over the russia inquiry. The sun has risen in bethlehem on this miss eve, but how many people will be able to make the journey to Midnight Mass at the church of the nativity at this time of coronavirus . Hello and welcome if youre watching in the uk or around the world. Im geeta guru murthy. The uk and the European Union are on the brink of an historic post brexit trade and security deal, ending nearly a year of bitter wrangling. An announcement that the two sides have secured an agreement on their future relationship, which will avoid import taxes on each others goods is expected this morning. But yet again, fishing is the issue theyre stuck on
and a News Conference expected earlier is being delayed. Negotiators from both sides talked through the night in brussels and are continuing to hammer out the details. To westminster and our political correspondent, iain watson. We expected to hear about a phone call between borisjohnson and ursula von der leyen. Is that happening . It will take place shortly, and it is usually significant. It is on that call that the deal will be, verbally at least, agreed. The deal will be sealed at the end of that telephone call, barring any last minute hitches. It is expected that, if the call is going to take place in the next half an hour, then once the phone has hung up, then the brexit deal will be sealed. Parliament has to be recalled to ratify the deal next
week, and retrospective ratification of any deal by the European Parliament is expected early in the new year. We then get the details of what was agreed, 2000 page document covering our future trading relationship with the eu, but also other issues including security and data sharing. It will exclude some of the things people had been pressing for agreement on, including Financial Services, worth about 80 of the british economy. That will be dependent on unilateral decisions largely by the European Union, but that trade deal will, we will get back, and from downing street was my point of view, what they would fully expect to see after these often fractious negotiations is what is called tariff free and quota free access to the eu Single Market. In other words exports from the uk to the eu not being taxed and there are limits on the amount of goods that can be sold. At the margins, if
those goods include components from outside the eu and uk they may attract some charges but by and large the Free Trade Agreement that borisjohnson has large the Free Trade Agreement that Boris Johnson has been large the Free Trade Agreement that borisjohnson has been seeking will be delivered. There will have been huge compromises along the way but we will have to look at the detail of the text to find out exactly where. Is he likely to secure the public support of the group known as the er g, the real brexit enthusiasts . We have been seeing nigel farage giving an interview saying that he suspected the uk would remain too closely aligned to the eu, their deals, is it going to be allowed to become singapore, a dynamic economy, not necessarily, says nigel farage. Boris johnson will be looking at bank of england forecasts suggesting that, irrespective of the crisis covid has caused, the uk economy would be likely to shrink by another 2 , which sound small but is huge in terms ofjobs and national income. Ifa terms ofjobs and national income. If a deal was not struck. That said, id expect some brexiteers to be looking at this incredibly sceptically, critically, to ask questions as to whether Boris Johnson has delivered on his pledge on sovereignty in particular. We know from the eu as well as uk celsius, on fishing, a hugely contentious issue, the uk has agreed toa contentious issue, the uk has agreed to a longer phasing in of the arrangements although the eu has compromised and come down from their demands as well. And the eu will give up some of the fishing catch, perhaps around one quarter but not as much as some of the long standing brexiteers would have wished. That said, borisjohnson brexiteers would have wished. That said, Boris Johnson has brexiteers would have wished. That said, borisjohnson has been calling some members of the European Research group, some of the brexiteers in his own ranks, unlike nigel farage, who is outside of the party, and some of them seem on the basis of what have untold, they seem to be relatively pleased with what the Prime Minister has achieved but
said also that they will get lawyers to look at the detail of this, and go over it with a fine tooth comb before deciding how to vote, but i should point out at this stage it is not expected that this deal will be thrown out by the british parliament, it is expected the vast majority of labour mps will back this because the alternative of no deal would be thought to be worse, and newly elected conservative mps who promised constituents they would get a deal are likely to back it. Ian and watson in westminster, thank you, watching all things for us from millbank. We will get back to you for further updates. Lets go to our europe coprrespondent, gavin lee. What more do we know of this phone call between borisjohnson and ursula von der leyen, what more do
we know . Talks have not yet finished. They are still talking about fish. 0n the highest law of this building the lights were on and they were going through, species by species, herring by herring, every single species, who gets access to what and for how long, the eu gets access until we think after about five years the uk gets to decide who has access from that point. We are ina has access from that point. We are in a position where, we are waiting, we havent had the readout of when the press conference is going to be, but we are maybe a couple of hours, im aware that i keep saying this, you keep slipping back, but the deal should be announced. Stepping back, 4. 5 years ago i was here when the commissioners came out, Member States, officials, in shock at the referendum result that britain was leaving after all that time. I have have a few grey hairs since then,
but the negotiators, gosh knows what they have been through. The pizzas we re they have been through. The pizzas were delivered last night to keep them going through the night. What we are looking at is this narrow, comparatively, trade deal for britain starting onjanuary one. Things will change. The idea is that there will be tariff free barriers disappearing for lots of goods and products and quota free as well so you can have as much as you want going back and forward, but there will still be facility fees so it will still be facility fees so it will not be the Single Market, they are out of the Customs Union, so there will be more checks, and for ordinary people, what people get is crucial detail, hopefully, when we see the text, what will happen when im driving in europe, from january, what happens to my pet passport, what happens to my pet passport, what happens to european medical insurance, Big Questions for the ordinary person. Hopefully, we will get some more light as the day continues. I was going to ask, how will my life change, you are in brussels, i am will my life change, you are in brussels, iam in will my life change, you are in brussels, i am in london, will my life change, you are in brussels, iam in london, what will my life change, you are in brussels, i am in london, what are we going to notice on the ist of
january . Neither of us presumably own a company doing any trade across the border, so how will things change . It is interesting. At the moment if you want to bring in a pet under no deal conditions, you need to have rabies equivalent vaccinations, for dogs, getting down to the minutiae, terms that could change with the deal, could be better terms for travel in the short term, getting an International Drivers licence, the uk eu driving license may have been acceptable, it may come down to personal qualifications. Will my qualifications. Will my qualifications be recognised elsewhere in europe . All of that sort of detail has been discussed. Trade organisations and businesses have said, it will drop tariffs for livestock but not seed potatoes for example. We may laugh but for some industries, that is massive. It matters, were talking about millions of pounds that are traded
back and forth. Things will change. All of the Member States will have to go through 2000 pages of legal text, in english, rememberthe to go through 2000 pages of legal text, in english, remember the other Member States have got to sign this off after the deal is agreed, not in the 23 other official languages of the 23 other official languages of the eu, and it will not be ratified and agreed by the European Parliament before the end of this year. We expect that if Member States agree they will send it back to brussels, we get a written statement from the European Commission president ursula von der leyen, saying be provisionally accepted this, that the Eu Parliament will accept it later, the Uk Parliament will accept it before the end of the year. That is the process as we see it. Gavin, in brussels, thank you very much. The eu and the uk have been locking horns over a number of issues during the stalks. There were a number of key sticking points that proved difficult to navigate in recent weeks. We can get more and that now from chris morris. What have been
the difficult bits to get through . There has been lots of discussion in recent days on fishing. Species by species. Anyone who thought that taking back control of fishing meant 100 control immediately is going to be disappointed. This is a negotiation. There was always going to be compromised. The british fishing fleet doesnt have the capacity to catch all the fish currently caught by the eu boats in uk waters anyway. It is about the transition and where we are now to Something Different in future. Initially, the uk wanted 80 of the value of the fish currently caught by eu boats in uk waters to be returned, 80 . The initial eu offer was 18 . The compromise is going to bea was 18 . The compromise is going to be a lot closer, to begin with, to the eu position but, in the long run, the uk will gain more and more control over its fishing waters. Politically, this may be incredibly important. Among a small minority there will be a betrayal narrative. We havent gone to taking back control of our waters in full but economically fishing is a minnow. It is about much bigger things, this deal. There is going to be tariff free access to the Single Market. Great for businesses, but it is about the terms in which that tariff free access can continue in future. 0verall, will businesses find that they are losing or gaining . Many businesses that trade across the border will not recognise the idea that this is going to be cutting red tape. For them, frankly, this is laughable, because there will be new bureaucracy, new costs, new barriers, new delays, because even though there are no tariffs at borders there will be other bits of borders there will be other bits of border bureaucracy that have to go through. Some of it will be british
red tape, some of it will be european, but the idea that there will be less red tape for people trading across borders is frankly a fa ntasy. Trading across borders is frankly a fantasy. It is true that, over time, the uk has won the right to back away from eu regulation more generally. Again, it comes down to the detail of what happens if it exercises that right. In what circumstances can the eu strike back, if the uk decides to move away from the eu, regulation, and can, for example, if the uk decides to reach an agreement in one area, can the eu hit back with tariffs or taxes in another area . The eu hit back with tariffs or taxes in another area . So through the detail of that economic relationship which, compared to fishing, involves billions of pounds of business now and in future, that is what is important for businesses that trade with europe. In terms of the uk being able to fundamentally
changing its economic model or doing fantastic trade terms with other parts of the world, what does this deal mean for that . In terms of trade deals the uk has the right to do its own independent trade deals around the world. That is one of the things the government promised. It has been delivered. It is no longer in the Customs Union. But we have to be clear about what that means. The governments own estimate is that a free trade deal with the United States for exa m ple free trade deal with the United States for example would add 0. 16 to the size of our economy over 15 yea rs. To the size of our economy over 15 years. Whereas, the office for budget responsibility thinks the current repaid deal we think is going to be done with the eu will cut 4 . So 0. I6 , cutting 4 , the deal with the eu, compared to staying as an eu member state. So, it is going to be. That is less growth. We will still be growing but
ata growth. We will still be growing but at a slower rate. The bigger the economy is, the more money circulates, the morejobs potentially there are going to be. It is going to be difficult to replace the trade we are going to lose with europe, because we are putting up barriers between ourselves and them, with the trade deals we will do around the world. So it is a very long term bet on those parts of the world that are growing more quickly, compared to the vast amount of trade we do with our next door neighbours. The vast amount of trade we do with our nextdoor neighbours. Just very quickly, is our life going to change much from the ist of january, those of us that dont trade, but in other ways, how will we notice this . We will notice more things. There will be more bureaucracy across borders for traders, as well as for travellers. So if you have six months on your passport you cannot go with just months on your passport you cannot go withjust a months on your passport you cannot go with just a few weeks left. You will probably need more, you will
need car insurance, health insurance, although sorts of things, and there may be small things we notice, such as it is more difficult to get a parcel delivered from europe, because there will be border formalities. We are putting up little bits bureaucracy if you like. But one of the main aims of the brexiteers was to take back control of money, borders and laws. If sovereignty is your thing, whatever it means, you can certainly make an argument that this agreement will gain you more sovereignty. But it is difficult to exercise sovereignty in a world that is so interconnected. That is what this government and successive governments will be juggfing successive governments will be juggling with, for years to come, in a relationship with our nearest neighbours. It is not over, is it . No, it is not. We will be back with chris once we have more details and a confirmation of a deal. I spoke earlier to the former uk trade negotiator david henig about how the
deal might look. There will be new barriers to trade between the uk and eu. The deal doesnt prevent those. We are expecting talks to continue into the new year. It will not be anything like a seamless trading relationship. But it is certainly going to be better than no deal, and it lays the framework down for further cooperation between the uk and eu, so it is significant the Prime Minister has decided to go for this deal. If you look at the whole framing of the last 4. 5 years, we were in a very tight, close, relationship. The vote, ultimately, didnt hinge on fish. A lot of the other issues were about the idea of sovereignty, immigration. Where do we stand now on those key issues that people perhaps thought they were voting on . It compromises in a number of areas. Clearly, this is a looser relationship with the eu,
but it is a relationship, we will be linked in with the eu in many ways. We will have closer control over immigration. That was the red line that there may established as Prime Minister, and has continued, but it is certainly a compromise. There is no question that the uk has got everything it wanted, for example we dont have the same access to the Single Market but without any of the obligations which is what was being talked about at various points. It is a more distant relationship but also the basis on which a future relationship can be built and i suspect this is not the end of the story. It may be as a headline media story, but there will continue to be developments in the uk eu relationship in the future. Is it possible to sum up what the uk has gained and lost as a result of this . I know we dont have the deal but the broad outline agreements are out there. In broad outline, we have agreed
quite a compromise on fish, where we havent taken immediate control of all of our waters and an immediate high uplift in the fish we can catch, but that is phased in over six years. We have accepted there have to be a number of fair competition provisions, in return for a deal, the so called level Playing Field conditions, and there are a number of areas in which we h