This is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. The British Government considers plans for a month Long National lockdown across england in the hope that measures could be eased before christmas. A europe wide surge in coronavirus cases has spurred a wave of tighter restrictions with belgium the latest to announce a six week National Lockdown. Rescue teams search through the rubble for survivors after a powerful earthquake hits turkey and greece. At least 27 people are confirmed dead. Just three days to go donald trump and Joe Biden Campaign in the american midwest where polls suggest several states could go either way. Hello and welcome if youre watching in the uk or around the world and stay with us for the latest news and analysis from here and across the globe. The uk Prime MinisterBoris Johnson is considering bringing in a month Long National lockdown for england. Documents seen by the bbc suggest that unless further restrictions are introduced, there could be far more coronavirus deaths in britain than during the first wave. A new stay at home order could be announced on monday, but schools, colleges and universities would stay open. Meanwhile, the United States has set a new record for the highest single day total of new covid cases of any country since the Global Pandemic began. Figures from Johns HopkinsUniversity Show more than 99,000 new cases reported on friday. That has seen the total number of cases in the us surpass the nine million mark. In the rest of europe, the who reported total cases across the continent have gone over the 10 million mark. The second wave in europe has seen belgium, france and germany move to reinstate full National Lockdowns. Paul hawkins reports. To stay at home, protect our nhs and save lives. Remember back in the spring . Stay at home was the message and borisjohnsons now understood to be considering bringing in that instruction for england again. However, it wouldnt be the same overall. This time, schools, colleges and universities would stay open. Official government documents seen by the bbc suggest the country is on course for a significantly higher death toll in the second wave of covid than the first, unless there are further restrictions. That as cases continue to rise. Because action wasnt taken earlier when it should have been, we are now
in a harder place and the tier 3 approach just levels us off at a bad place. And the rest of the countrys coming up to that bad place. It is the recognition of that scenario that is leading to what has been discussed today. Downing streets understood to be looking at a month long form of lockdown, in the hope restrictions could be eased in time for christmas. Weve saying and we have been saying it for about three or four weeks that its really important the government moves quickly and does tough lockdowns as quickly as possible, because otherwise the nhs wont have the capacity it needs. Ministers have been defending tiered regional restrictions targeting measures in the worst affected areas, labour has called for a short lockdown for england to get the virus under control. Unfortunately the governments kind of dithering on this means we have missed the half term holiday and it
sounds like it is going to be longer thanit sounds like it is going to be longer than it would otherwise have been. Last night government sources said that the country was at the crunch point, although no final decisions have been made. But it seems increasingly likely that the Prime Minister could take the National Action that he was so desperate to avoid. 0ur Political Correspondent helen catt is in downing street. Many of the front pages of the newspapers have also had word of a potential National Lockdown, when is downing street going to confirm its plans . Well, as you heard there from jessica there is no decision has been taken, not even the whole of cabinet have been briefed on this. But the fact this is even being considered by downing street does mark a significant shift. If you think about everything thats happened since england started to come out of lockdown over the summer, all the measures that have been place like the rule of six and
the 10pm curfew and the regional system of varying levels of restrictions, those we were told we re restrictions, those we were told were all being put in place to avoid the need for a second National Lockdown and borisjohnson has been clear that that was not something he wa nted clear that that was not something he wanted to do, he didnt think it was going to be the right solution and concerns about the damage to the economy and the damage to peoples mental health. When labour put the idea of a short circuit break, the government said no, that was not the right thing to do, borisjohnson described it as turning out the lights. So the fact it is being considered marks a significant shift. What has caused that shift . It seems it is these documents that have been circumstance lamented in the circumstance lated circulated in the last few days. Borisjohnson and the chancellor saw these and
discussed them on friday. The documents, there are two sets. 0ne looks at the likely path of the disease and how it is likely to spread. It is thought the modelling looks worse than the first wave and the reasonable worst Case Scenario the reasonable worst Case Scenario the government was working on and the government was working on and the oth document warns about the Health Service capacity and warn it is Health Service wouldnt be able to a cce pt is Health Service wouldnt be able to accept more patients by christmas, even if they cancelled all the nonurgent procedures. Lets get more on this now with professor david heymann, from the London School of hygiene and tropical medicine. Do you think a National Lockdown is needed . Well what we are seeing now is the accumulation of cases that have occurred since the last
lockdown and many countries didnt have an appropriate exit strategy when they left that lockdown. We are dealing with outbreaks when they occurred, trying to find out where transmission was occurring and locking those sites down earlier, as has been done in countries in asia. So we have an assume lacing of cases that accumulation of cases that is causing stress on the Health Service. But the decision is difficult, on the one side inequalities will be increasing, at the same Time Mental Health of Young Children is important and also important is the mortality that will occui. Important is the mortality that will occur. These decisions cant be made overnight. Im not privy to all the information going to sage, but it is a difficult decision to make. The confusion is not helpful to behaviour and for people trying to plan their lives and to everyone getting on top of the virus. The
arguments made against a lockdown, why would they have changed with this data . I cant tell you for sure, but i think its trying to protect the nhs as well as to save lives. But what we often forget is that people have the power to deal with this pandemic themselves. If they understand the messages being provided be i by the government and if they follow those. That is what is happening in many countries especially where Asian Countries where people do try to protect others and themselves. Whether that is occurring in the uk, i cant say. But congregations of young people in social environments are not conducive to decreasing transmission. On the numbers that the bbc seems to have seen, at the height of the pandemic in the spring, deaths reached more than a thousand a day and if no changes we re thousand a day and if no changes were introduced now, deaths could
reach more than 4,000 a day, according to one of the models, that is obviously a vast number, a vast increase, is it plausible the numbers have come as a surprise, given that sage recommended at the end of september a lockdown . Well, you know, models arejust end of september a lockdown . Well, you know, models are just that, theyre estimates based on best possible information that people have today. They always present a worst and best Case Scenario. The worst and best Case Scenario. The worst Case Scenario worst and best Case Scenario. The worst Case Scenario what is the government must make their planning on and theyre using these to see what really they will be doing. When you talk about what other countries have done, we look at the east, the eastern countries, can we trust the chinese numbers for a start and are there lessons that governments in europe and the uk should be learning from . I cant tell you whether we
can trust the chinese figures or not. But what we can see the countries in asia such as japan, south korea, sing appear, vietnam, hong kong and taiwan all those areas by the end of january were detecting and responding to outbreaks and keeping transmission low and they have continued with that. And they have continued with that. And they have traced back from cases to find where transmission is occurring and then shut those areas and tried to rectify the situation and then open them up again cautiously. That is a good approach. Countries in europe we re good approach. Countries in europe were behinds in they didnt detect the early cases and now theyre trying to catch up and it is a very difficultjob to do so. Trying to catch up and it is a very difficult job to do so. Would you be critical or supportive of the western approach . Because you know, the results when you look at the john hopkins data of total death
rates and look at somewhere like taiwan, which is a small island, but it has 200 days without a transmitted case. The outcomes here are starkly different and it feels to many as though european governments and the us are playing catch up consta ntesly . Governments and the us are playing catch up constantesly . Co nsta ntly. Catch up constantesly . Constantly. Yes and they didnt respond early and now theyre trying to catch up and it is difficult. It is especially difficult, because during the lockdown in the spring, there were not a lot of plans made to exit safely and keep transmission low and transmission has increased and now we finds ourselves in the situation that we dont want to be, protecting hospitals and trying to save the lives, while at the same time balancing that between the inequalities that will be increasing, because of the lockdowns that are occurring. Thank you. Lets speak to dr Mike Tildesley from the university of warwick. Hes an expert in the modelling of Infectious Diseases and sits on one of sage sub committees. Do you think there should be a National Lockdown now for a month . Well, i think it is clear looking at the day that that unfortunately data, that cases are rising and we need to get away from the fact that incidence in certain parts is lower than others, but the r number is greater than i every where, even in those regions that have gone into tier 3. So the danger with this of course is if we wait then what we are going to see over if next couple of months is most parts progressing into higher tiers. The only way to counter act that is to have a national strategy. I think it needs to be fixed term. Because one of the difficulties is of course, as was
talked about, there are other implications of that. We no there is economic damage and damage the peoples well being and mental health. But a short, maybe three to four week strategy to bring incidence down, allow time or the test and trace to get to where it needs to be and that will enable us to relax a bit over the winter, over the Christmas Period and protect the nhs ata the Christmas Period and protect the nhs at a time when it is very vulnerable. Will it be safe to keep schools and universities open during this period . I think it is difficult. Ive always said we should keep children in school where possible. I think the long term damage to childrens education, that is, that can be significant. The reason we were pushing for a Circuit Breaker over half term was to try to minimise the impact on schools. If children stay in school that will increase the r number, but if we can
be stringent every where else, hopefully we can get it below i. For universities, the problem is stu d e nts universities, the problem is students are on campus and if we we re students are on campus and if we were to close universities, you have to send them home and there is a risk there. So the only thing we do is try to minimise risks on campus and get out the message that stu d e nts and get out the message that students need to keep seeking tests and isolate ing. Should children in classrooms be Wearing Masks . As scotla nd classrooms be Wearing Masks . As scotland has indicated that the older teenagers should wear masks . Yes this is a difficult one. I will say from the point of view of learning i have been against the idea of masks in classrooms, particularly maybe children that are more shy or are struggling, a mask may prevents them from engaging with the class. I would be reluctant to bring that measure in, particularly
at Primary School for those reasons. It may bring the risk down a bit. But i hope with the measures we have in place with the bubbling and these things in schools, hopefully we can minimise the risk. In terms of time limits a lockdown, we havent had anything confirmed, what happens at the end of that, that is when the numbers may still be going up of hospitalisation and mortality given the time lag. Will it be plausible to lift restrictions . Youre right, this is always the criticism of a Circuit Breaker and of course when you pull the plug, cases start to go up you pull the plug, cases start to go up again. So it is not a magic bullet, or a way out of this, but it isa bullet, or a way out of this, but it is a measure you could consider essentially to buy yourself time. We are already seeing evidence in the north of england that hospitals are coming under threat in terms of getting to reaching capacity. It enables us to bring that down. But
we need to think about what we do beyond that and we need to get test and trace working and to get to the level so we can rapidly identify co nta cteds level so we can rapidly identify contacteds and we need of contacts and we need the isolation measures to work. We need to discuss an exit strategy. The danger is as you say, cases go up again and in two two three months time we are having this conversation again. Just looking at the data that we have seen, suggestions that death tolls could reach more than 4,000 a day, at the height of the pandemic in the spring it was about a thousand a day. Is that a realistic number that looms if restrictions are not imposed . You have to remember that with this realistic worst Case Scenario, it was never a prediction. The scenarios are put in place to guide the government to make sure
theyre prepared for the worst case. Of course there is a concern, because what we seeing exceeds that worst Case Scenario. Because what we seeing exceeds that worst Case Scenario. It is difficult to put an exact number on what we might expect to see in terms of hospitalisations and deaths, but the numbers are going up and this is the concern, if we dont act, whether it exceed s the number is difficult to tell. But we will see hospitalisation and deaths go up in a concerning way. If the government had imposed a lockdown, a full National Lockdown earlier in the autumn, how many lives could plausibly have been saved, is it possible to work that out . The weekly death toll has been rising already. Yes, it is very hard and i a lwa ys already. Yes, it is very hard and i always try and veer from talking about how many lives might have been saved. It is, because of course, it is not, as i said, it is not an exit strategy, it is not you do the
lockdown and save everyones life. The important thing with control is you need to act as quickly as possible, a controlled strategy for a disease has maximum effect if you put it in place as soon as possible and it ills most effective in the parts where incidence is lower. So in the shorter term it does protect the nhs and save lives, but of course what you need to do is be responsive and once you lift strategies you need to put other measures in place to keep it down. When you said you had pushed for a lockdown earlier, what was the response from government to that . Did you get one . I mean of course you need to remember, i dont sit on sage, im on the Scientific Group for modelling, we put in our work that gets considered at sage and i accept the government, as david hayman discussed, the government
have things they need to consider when putting in a policy and they need to consider peoples well being and economic aspects and covid. There are all these things that need to be weighed up when coming to making a decisions. Im several stems from directly communication steps from directly communicating with policy. Thank you. Rescue teams in the turkish city of izmir have spent the night digging through concrete blocks looking for survivors of the earthquake that struck in the aegean on friday.