looking as though they are credible, their vote potentially is vulnerable. leave voters may well be defecting to the conservatives. but of course what is also intriguing about this is the swing you point out, that 6% swing to the conservatives, is actually bigger than you are currently seeing in a national polls. labour there for might want to say the local circumstances in copeland were particularly difficult but the reason why the local circumstances in copeland were particularly difficulties because of jeremy corbyn's reluctance about the nuclear industry, which in some voters' minds is probably also tied to the fact he's also anti—nuclear weapons. so although the difficulty might be local, i suspect for the critics of mr corbyn inside the labour party, they will be saying, look, this is exactly the problem withjeremy corbyn's look, this is exactly the problem with jeremy corbyn's leadership, thatis with jeremy corbyn's leadership, that is taking stances on issues that is taking stances on issues that are not popular amongst the wider public and of course earlier you have that embarrassing interview with jack drove you have that embarrassing interview withjack drove me, who you have that embarrassing interview with jack drove me, who was on a table to confirm that mr corbyn was necessarily in favour of nato and there perhaps a message in the counterpoint between that interview earlier this evening and result from copeland —— jack drew me. earlier this evening and result from copeland -- jack drew me. thanks, we will get more thoughts and come back to you. harry gardner, it's one of the worst results in a by—election for labour in living memory. yes, absolutely. well, i think for labour in living memory. yes, absolutely. well, ithinkjohn for labour in living memory. yes, absolutely. well, i thinkjohn has analysed it very well. i think he's analysed it very well. i think he's analysed it very well. i think he's analysed it both in terms of the shift in the brexit vote that's gone from ukip to the conservatives and also in the importance to that particular constituency of the nuclear industry. sellafield was absolutely, it has been at the heart of that constituency. big job creation. and whilst in fact the statement that the labour party had put out, certainly in recent weeks and over the issue of moorside were actually more pro—nuclear and more about the government investing in moorside than the conservatives' own, nonetheless, that history that said thatjeremy corbyn was against nuclear, albeit taken out of context after the fukushima nuclear, albeit taken out of context after the fu kushima results nuclear, albeit taken out of context after the fukushima results in tokyo. has he always been against it? he's never been in favour. that's not entirely true. he's never beenin that's not entirely true. he's never been in favour of nuclear. he's recognised that nuclear is an important part of our energy mix going forward and he's said that on a number of occasions. but nonetheless, that was a very important factor in the by—election. i accept that. i think mark is also right to say that trudy harrison was a very good candidate. watching both labour and conservative candidates, i'm sure the other candidates were pretty good too. it was a two horse race. undoubtedly! we did pretty well. two horse race! from a small base, you are moving in the right direction. here's the issue. jeremy corbyn went on the nhs at prime minister's questions this week. not for the first time, the nhs is clearly in some trouble this winter, asa clearly in some trouble this winter, as a generalised problem. and mr corbyn has seen that as an issue thatis corbyn has seen that as an issue that is strong for labour to go for the government. in addition to that, there was this local issue of the maternity hospital and if it closes its a a0 mile journey to carlisle to get to the maternity hospital there. and yet even given all that, you couldn't hold this feed. we cannot bea couldn't hold this feed. we cannot be a party of single issue and of course the national health service, we founded it, we created it, we recreated it in 1997 by all the investment we put into it, but nonetheless, it cannot be the sole issue for our party and that's something that we in the labour party must be aware of and we must reflect the wider concerns of the public, not just about the reflect the wider concerns of the public, notjust about the nhs. barry gardiner, thank you, we will show you the swing. the swing from labour to conservatives, 6.7. show you the swing. the swing from labourto conservatives, 6.7. it show you the swing. the swing from labour to conservatives, 6.7. it say hi swing, not in by—elections in general, but a hi swing, not in by—elections in general, buta high hi swing, not in by—elections in general, but a high swing to go from the official opposition to the governing party. that is the remarkable part of this swing. 6.7. if that was to be carried out through the country, the conservatives would have a majority of over 120, though of course it's a lwa ys of over 120, though of course it's always a mistake to take one constituency and say how the country will vote. but even so, that's an encouraging result there, matt hancock. i can't thing you can put this down just hancock. i can't thing you can put this downjust a hancock. i can't thing you can put this down just a local issues. of course there were local issues and we had a very good candidate but the fa ct we went we had a very good candidate but the fact we went up as a share of the vote in both of the by—elections tonight, having not done that in government since 1982. governments don't normally go up. exactly, so of course there are local issues but you can't just put course there are local issues but you can'tjust put this down to the local questions you are asking. it's also about the fact that we have a government that is delivering. 0k, jeremy corbyn has issued a statement covering both by—elections. chris mason in stoke has it. was the leader of the opposition saying?l couple of paragraphs have been put out by the labour press office in jeremy corbyn's name. he's saying, labour's victory in stoke is a decisive rear rejection of ukip's politics but our message was not enough to win through in copeland. in both campaigns, labour listened to thousands of voters on the doorstep. both constituencies, like so doorstep. both constituencies, like so many, have been let down by the political establishment. to win power, rebuilt and transform britain, labour will go further to reconnect with voters and break with the failed political consensus. now i think what's interesting is that the whispers were earlier this evening, if labour were to hold the seat here in stoke, thatjeremy corbyn would leap on a train tomorrow lunchtime and would do some sort of victory parade through the city centre and of course, if he goes ahead and does that, you can guarantee what every single question will be thrown at him. it won't be a single thing about stoke, it will be about what has happened in copeland. it will be interesting to see if he actually does get on that train, because despite the perfectly expected jubilation from gareth snell, the winning labour candidate here in stoke, all of the questions are pointed, a good deal further to the north—west in copeland for labour. and queue for that and it's clear that the bigger, the two big stories tonight, the bigger of the two was clearly labour's defeat in copeland, because of the historic nature of it. and in a way, am i too serious to think that the tories and lib dems got the best of both worlds tonight? labour held onto one seat, good for mr corbyn, but they lost another seat, bad for mr corbyn, good for mr corbyn, but they lost anotherseat, bad for mr corbyn, but not losing two means that mr corbyn still stays leader of the labour party. seems like good news to me. well, you showed earlier the graph, didn't you, of labour's fortunes, which are diving. a lot of that is to do with their leader. on the taxi here tonight, i always have a chat with the drivers. he said, oh, his mother or mother—in—law had been the labour mayor of tower hamlets, so even they are saying you can't vote labour wasjeremy even they are saying you can't vote labour was jeremy corbyn. it's even they are saying you can't vote labour wasjeremy corbyn. it's bad news for labour. i thought it was only germans that chatted to taxi drivers. ichat and a disastrous night for ukip. lets come onto that. just as you think it couldn't get worse, ina just as you think it couldn't get worse, in a wayjust got worse. vote collapsed will stop in copeland you see clearly what happened, some people voted for ukip in the general election, switched the vote to vote conservative, in order to out seat labour because labour was absolutely too farfor them, labour because labour was absolutely too far for them, they didn't want a labourmp. too far for them, they didn't want a labour mp. the interesting thing is ukip voters did in copeland, we think, move to the tories to defeat labour, which is precisely what conservative voters did not do in stoke, which was moved to ukip to defeat labour. so it's a double bad result for you. copeland was much more clearly two horse race and stoke was more of a three horse race. if you saw the 2015 result, it was ukip and the conservatives neck and neck in second place. ukip told as it was a two horse race in the campaign, that the tories were not in it, that the only people to beat labour was ukip. well, absolutely. i think in stoke that was the case, but it ended up as the result we had. but a different thing happened in copeland. it was much clearer in copeland that if you wanted to have a change from labour venue had to vote conservative, because they were much closer in the vote. on this week, which preceded the by—election special, michael portillo said what has just happened is the best result for the tories, that labour won stoke, which keeps mr corbyn secure, but they've pulled off, the tories have pulled off a spectacular victory in copeland, which is great for tory morale, and he's pointed out to me, a seat in the north of england where the tories have been in retreat for one and baby two generations now. so is a win—win. well, michael was saying the same thing to me earlier. he said, if we woi'i thing to me earlier. he said, if we won two ctb very pleased. my point is this. —— if we want two seats, he'd be very pleased. one can try and personalise this around the figure of the leader. jeremy's position as leader is secure, after winning two times within 18 months we're not going to go into a leadership election. we never were, i'io leadership election. we never were, no matter what happened tonight. evenif no matter what happened tonight. even if you'd lost both? nobody has the appetite for that in the parliamentary labour party. what is clear to me and that was the figures you showed earlier, there is a long—term trend of declining in those seats and what we have to do asa those seats and what we have to do as a party is not only respond to that, we have to respond to the changing face of british politics, which has been absolutely transformed by the 52% who voted to leave the european union and the a8% that voted to stay, and we have to grapple with that central issue. we are doing that as a party. i think kier starmer is doing that particularly well, trying to articulate a pathway that will lead us articulate a pathway that will lead us through that. i fear that the government is not going to lead was successfully through that, and that's why the labour party needs to i'iow that's why the labour party needs to now articulate a message that perhaps will not resonate on the doorsteps at the moment. it's not the clarity of we are supporting the 48%, the clarity of we are supporting the a8%, or, we are supporting the 52%. it's trying to bring these things together. if we can do that successfully, even if we don't get the success now, in two, three years' time, when people see what's happening with those negotiations, maybe people will think the labour party does represent us. but in a sense two thoughts come to mind. 0ne is that you almost need the brexit negotiations to go wrong to make your point and i don't think it's ever good for a political party to hope to prosper on the back of things going badly for our country. absolutely, no. i perfectly understand the strategy you are outlining, it seems to me a lot of common sense, but it seems to me that's a longer term strategy get back than 2020, that you really are looking to the next decade for that to bea looking to the next decade for that to be a fruit. i think what we've got to do is articulate what is right for the country. we have to i'iow right for the country. we have to now want the negotiations with our european colleagues to be successful. we must continue to warm, we must continue to point out the pitfalls, but actually, we've got to try and ensure that we bring the government to the right place. that's the job of the opposition. barry gardiner, if the oppositions are —— if the negotiations are successful and that's a big if, the more the chances of a no deal at all are rising, still minority, but rising a bit, very tricky. but if they are successful than surely mrs may is off to the races. she'll be the prime minister that delivered a successful deal on brexit. what is labour's role in that? our role will be in steering her to do that and that will be a success for the country. but that won't get you elected. ourjob as her majesty's official and loyal opposition is always to criticise the government, but to do so in the best interests of the country. i understand. that doesn't always mean that we will get the kudos for it but it should be what our intent is. it sounds to me from what you say that 2020 is going to be difficult for you to win, and in your heart of hearts you think its a step too far, it's going to ta ke its a step too far, it's going to take longer than that. not at all. i believe that we must be looking now towards 2020 and to making sure that we can win in 2020, but we will only do so if we address that long—term decline, the divide between manufacturing sectors and the financial and other service sectors in our country, if we actually show that we have a plan to bring the country back together. festival, i've listened to politicians telling me they are going to reverse the decline in manufacturing since i was in short trousers and every i look ata in short trousers and every i look at a graphic on going down on that. but it would seem there has to come a time and the chart we showed earlier, which got labour down to 27, if that doesn't start to turn up, if you and i are sitting in his studio ina up, if you and i are sitting in his studio in a year's time or 18 months‘ time, studio in a year‘s time or 18 months‘ time, it‘s a problem. studio in a year‘s time or 18 months' time, it's a problemlj wanted to turn. i do. i'll do anything i can to make sure it does, andrew. i can see in our monitor that we have the new member of parliament for copeland, trudy harrison. shejoins us now from parliament for copeland, trudy harrison. she joins us now from the count. trudy harrison, welcome to oui’ count. trudy harrison, welcome to our by—election special. it is as we‘ve been saying quite a historic victory, given this was a labour seat, but a conservative government has won it. why do you think you want? —— won? has won it. why do you think you want? -- won? what i represent is what the people of this area need andi what the people of this area need and i know that because i‘ve lived here all my life. and when did you realise this historic upset might happen? did you always think you are going to win, or to begin with did it seem it‘s an area of very high mountains, but was this a very high mountains, but was this a very high mountain you had to climb?m mountains, but was this a very high mountain you had to climb? it was a high mountain and it was really over the last three weeks, speaking with people on the doorstep, coming to realise that what the area needs isn‘t a single campaign, it‘s actually has cars a holistic plan, a stronger economy, improved infrastructure and better services. what indication is it that you are going to get any of that? well, i'm looking forward to heading down to westminster on monday to meet with the ministers who can help deliver on that plan. all right, tell is exactly what it is you are going to be asking of them, so we can measure this. certainly. i'm hoping that we can deliver on moorside, that is crucial in our area. the nuclear industry, that‘s right, moorside will be actually europe‘s biggest new build and it will be next to sellafield, which was the world‘s first nuclear reactor, which so many people in our area rely upon. ok, so you want that, the new nuclear station to proceed. you going to say that hospital? i very much hope so. i'll that hospital? i very much hope so. i‘ll be working very hard on that. i‘ve already been speaking with philip dunn, who has visited the hospital, and what we‘ve agreed is that we will be pushing forward a government backed professional review. the situation is about recruitment hearing west cumbria and it‘s a problem in many sectors. health, education and indeed, in the nuclear sector. so what we need to do is make sure we can retain and recruit enough highly skilled workers into our area. all right, it‘s been a long campaign and there will be time in the months ahead to ask you more questions but i think for now we will let you go and celebrate your victory. thank you very much, andrew. trudy harrison, the conservative victor in the copeland by—election. let‘s have a final quick swing round the table forfinal thoughts. final quick swing round the table for final thoughts. we‘ll start with the lib dems. good news for us, we've gone up, despite thai campaigns between other parties, with wisdom that, it's excellent, we had really good candidates. lots of invigorated campaigns. i think personally it was a really bad night for ukip, not making progress in stoke and losing loads of votes there, a bad night for labour and not so good for the tories either. not so good. having won copeland? yes. really? yes, because they'd really like... and on this growth rate you‘d end up with 60 mp5 really like... and on this growth rate you‘d end up with 60 mps in the year 207a. rate you‘d end up with 60 mps in the year 2074. that's all right, you watch this space. tonight, we had a ao% swing from the tories in a by—election in kettering. that will do me. not a good night for ukip. two very different by—elections. actually is not as bad for ukip as people are making out. in stoke we increased our share of the vote. 296. 296 in increased our share of the vote. 296. 2% in the safe labour seat, not enough to win. we need to learn those lessons to go forward. in copeland ukip voters lent the conservatives their vote because they didn‘t want labour. labour were too awful to contemplate, continue too awful to contemplate, continue to being their mp. all right. the story of the decline from labour. barry gardiner? a bad night for others losing copeland, a real blow, very sad about that. many lessons that we have to learn, but delighted that we have to learn, but delighted that we have to learn, but delighted that we managed to retain the seat in stoke and congratulations to gareth snell for doing that. commiserations and real respect for gillian troughton. the candidates in copeland. an excellent candidate in copeland. an excellent candidate in copeland. an excellent candidate in copeland. a cracking night for us but we have seen we have a great new mpfor but we have seen we have a great new mp for copeland. she‘s already been me about broadband, which is the fourth point of her 6—point plan. it's fourth point of her 6—point plan. it‘s terrible up there. fourth point of her 6—point plan. it's terrible up there. is improving. it's terrible. we have more to do. the key is this, she said it. we have a holistic plan for the country. a holistic plan. it's 3:20am, the last thing i need to hear our holistic plans! it's true! it's hear our holistic plans! it's true! it‘s a drivel word i will not listen to what 3:20am. i‘d rather go and listen tojohn curtice for the final word. well, i think this late in the morning we just have to contemplate how curious and paradoxical the game of politics can be. never more than -- little of politics can be. never more than — — little more of politics can be. never more than —— little more than seven months ago the conservative party lost a referendum, where the leader campaigned very strongly for a remain vote and ended up with the country voting to leave. we are left, seven months on, with an opposition that is now losing votes in by—election after by—election. it's happened in witney, in richmond, in sleaford, in stoke and in copeland, all very different parts of england, but the message to labour is the same. and meanwhile, ukip are now facing the possibility that the rewards of the fact the majority of the country voted to leave may go to the conservative party, than to them. maybe, maybe one or party, than to them. maybe, maybe one or two conservative mps tomorrow morning may want to write a little private thank you note to david cameron and thank him for having lost the referendum onjune 23. thank you to my panel in the studio for sticking with me. it could have been later. at one point, we thought it might have been passed aam. the matt hancock, barry gardiner, thank you for sticking with me. i‘m off for a couple of hours‘ sleep and i‘m back in this very chair tomorrow at noon with the daily politics. we will try and put all of this and more into perspective. thank you for being with us on this bbc one by—election special. just before she was taken away she insisted she was innocent and would continue to fight for the truth. thousands of cannabis plants have been discovered by police, growing ina bunker been discovered by police, growing in a bunker in wiltshire. the estimated street value is more than £1 million, $1.2 million. six people have been arrested. hidden in the wiltshire countryside, rghq chilmark, a vast underground bunker built to protect britain‘s leaders in a nuclear war. if we go in here, mind your head. this afternoon, police showed us the vast cannabis growing operation they uncovered here overnight. how would you describe what you have discovered here? a huge, massively professional setup, the biggest cannabis factory farm that i‘ve seen in my 25 years of service. to find this in the heart of rural wiltshire is quite incredible. police found 20 large rooms. each one kitted out with specialist equipment to grow the plants and then dry out the leaves. officers say huge amounts of power have been secretly siphoned off the national grid. every room has got this setup in it as well. the vents at the top to withdraw all the fumes and take that outside to maintain the heat. in some of the rooms you see signs of people sleeping as well as working. this was the old canteen, still being used last night, it seems, years after the bunker was sold off by the ministry of defence. three people were arrested inside, including a 15—year—old boy. three older men were arrested outside on suspicion of human trafficking offences. in this room police have found hundreds of bags of old compost and they say that suggests this bunker has been used for cultivation for months. it is all very different from when the cold war bunker was last filmed by the bbc. the site had been under surveillance for some time but officers swooped last night when they saw the doors opening. they say local people had reported suspicious activity and a powerful smell coming from the vents. jon kay, bbc news, wiltshire. more on that and all the news any time on the bbc website. thanks for watching. thursday was a very wild day across the uk. storm doris packed quite a punch, bringing all sorts of weather — heavy rain, some heavy snow and the damaging gales. you can a real squeeze on the isobars across the uk leaving off into the north sea into the low countries and denmark as we reached friday. a ridge of high pressure building in. it means that the winds continue to turn light overnight, but with clear skies a new hazard will appear and that‘s ice across the northern areas. especially where wintry showers continue, so bear that in mind if you are heading out first thing. it will be a much colder night up and down the uk than what we have been used to over the last few nights. it means, however, that into friday things will be fine, thanks to the ridge of high—pressure. it should see plenty of sunshine through the day but it will not stay calm for all areas because later on in the day the next area of low pressure will bring wet and windy weather into northern ireland and then into scotland. but for much of england and wales it will be chilly. the wind is picking up again across the north of ireland and western scotland. rain becomes heavy and persistent but not reaching the east of scotland until after dark so here you should enjoy the sunshine. rain getting in towards the north—western parts of wales. certainly getting cloudier. the midlands, eastwards, it remains fine. lots of sunshine around. a lovely day with light winds. 0n the cool side, with temperatures in single figures for most. wet and windy weather across the north—west quarter of the uk. that spreads easterly during friday night, so the wind picks up everywhere. some of the rain will turn to snow over the high ground, we‘ll see it move across scotland. maybe the far north of england. turning back to rain, as the temperatures begin to rise from the south—west. so a less cold night on friday night than what we will see on thursday. so this weekend it looks like it will be milder. south—westerlies back and it will be windy, certainly across the north and west of the uk. close to the high pressure it should stay largely dry. you can see the isobars across the uk tightly packed again for saturday. weather fronts crossing the uk. the north—west corner of the country will see the most unsettled weather. wet and windy here through the weekend, whereas the midlands, south—east england, brightness and not a lot of cloud. temperatures in the double figures so back into milder air. on sunday it looks like the south in the east will see the best of any brightness. across the north and west, windy with outbreaks of rain. the latest headlines from bbc news. police in malaysia say they‘ve identified the substance used in the murder of the north korean leader‘s half brother as vx, an odourless but highly toxic nerve agent. the substance was found on the face of kim jong nam, who died after being attacked last week at kuala lumpur airport. iraqi troops have recaptured mosul‘s airport, as they continue their attack on the so—called islamic state. iraqi officials say their troops have gained ground rapidly in outlying areas to the south of the city. elite counter—terrorism forces have nowjoined the advance. the mexican foreign minister, luis videgaray, has expressed concern and irritation about us policy towards his country. he told the visiting us secretary of state rex tillerson and the head of homeland security, john kelly, that current us proposals on migration were harmful. storm dorris has brought chaos across the uk. winds up