Transcripts For ALJAZAM Real Money With Ali Velshi 20150103

Transcripts For ALJAZAM Real Money With Ali Velshi 20150103



i'm in for ali velshi and this is "real money".." changing fortunes make out winners and losers in the global economy. for the first time since the recession, the united states is poised to be the engine of global growth not china, not emerging markets. the u.s. economy is expected to grow 3.1% this year the labor market is picking up steam, and we've seen a small but significant uptick in u.s. wages. meanwhile, china's spectacular growth story is not such a page turner anymore with many expecting the economy to grow roughly 7% this year. that's still a lot higher than the u.s. and it's a far cry from the double-digit growth china has seen in recent years. the european union, well, it's just plain stagnating. 1.8% economic growth is forecast for the eu this year. in response the european central bank chief said today he's ready to spend loads of cash to stimulate eu economies. that sent the dollar soaring against the euro to the highest level in five years, and the dollar is strengthening against other currencies. a 50% drop in oil prices is partly to blame, already the price drop is making losers out of oil-producing regions the world over from russia to iran and from texas to north dakota too. even so falling prices at the pump make winners out of u.s. consumers, but the stronger dollar will make losers of u.s. exporters as their products become more expensive to buy overseas. while the slowdown? in exports hurt american manufacturers it won't hurt the global economy. jay bryson joins us from charlotte, north carolina. jay, great to have you back on the show. let's start with the focus on the u.s. is the boost from consumer spending we expect to get from lower gas prices will that offset weaknesses we might see as a result of the strong dollar? >> yeah it should. i mean keep in mind that you know, consumer spending is two-thirds of the u.s. economy, exports is only 10%. even if consumer spending grows just a little bit and exports really weaken still given the size of consumer spending it should offset the drag from exports. >> let's broaden out the global picture, jay. what's your outlook for china this year? >> well so we think china in 2014 grew somewhere around 7.5%. we think that's going to probably slow to something 7% maybe a little bit below that. as you look into 2016 slower at 6.5%. that's slow by chinese standards. 6% to 7% growth is there. >> how do you see that rippling out through the global economy? >> well you know so if you look at some of china's main trading partners in asia slower growth in china is going to affect those economies as well. when you add everything up and you look at how big is the united states relative to china and what effect does it have on the global economy, the best way to measure these things shows that china is really up only 50% of the size or importance i should say in terms of the global economy. so a slower china certainly, you know, is not good for the global economy but as long as china doesn't completely implode, which we don't think it will happen the overall global economy should be okay in 2015. let's circle west and put the focus on europe. we have low inflation and some european countries in the grips of deflation. can they escape this? >> well it's going to be very very slow for them to do that. if you think of our economy, if you think of all the stimulus that the federal reserve implemented here in the united states it's five years of relatively slow growth five years of very low inflation, europe is just starting to get along with this. it's going to be a while yet before europe really starts to pick up some steam. >> do you think a quantitative easing program in europe will help to boost the price points a little bit, or do you think that they're in for another year another two years, another three years of pain? what's your outlook? >> well you know two or three years -- i don't know if it's necessarily pain but we're looking at two or three years of relatively slow growth. quantitative easing on the margin here helped but it's not the silver bullet. just because the ecb starts to buy government bonds, and that certainly is the expectation, it does not mean europe will go ahead this year. a slow europe for the next few years. >> this is a global economy, but up expect want u.s. to remain somewhat insulated from the head winds. why is that? >> well so if you look at the overall u.s. economy, you think about it what is it? it's largely a service-based economy. services just aren't traded all that very much. so you think of some of the bigger sectors in the economy. start with health care. how much is that affected by growth in the rest of the world? zero. education. how much is that affected by growth in the rest of the world? zero. >> construction, very little. if you look at the big sectors in the u.s. economy, they don't have a lot of ties with the rest of the world. so a real significant slowdown or downturn in the rest of the world would certainly hurt but if we're talking about slower global growth it doesn't cause the u.s. economy to go back into recession. >> final question, jay and, of course, this is the one so important to many viewers, and that is wages. we've seen a slight uptick in the last employment report. do you think this could be the year when u.s. workers start to see meaningful increase in their paychecks? >> i think it potentially could. keep in mind what's important at the end of the day is not necessarily, you know, what you see in your paycheck but it's adjusted for prices and adjusted for inflation. it's purchasing power, okay? what we do believe we will see this year is some acceleration in nominal wages, but inflation should be low. look at gasoline prices. they're down 40%, 50% over the last few months. that puts extra purchasing power in people's pockets, and so you know, at the end of the day that's important here. so we do believe that real purchasing power will be stronger in 2015 than last year. >> okay. well, here's hoping that those predictions come true. jay bryson from wells fargo, thank you for joining us. we really appreciate it. well american consumers probably love plunging oil prices and the lower gasoline prices along with them but countries that rely on oil to drive their economies are feeling economic pain right now. we have a look coming up. you're watching "real money." only on al jazeera america oil prices have fallen some 50% sin peaking in late june thanks to part to upstart u.s. shale producers flooding the market with new supply when global demand is ebbing. that swing of the price pendulum brought relief to consumers at the pumps while heaping pain on countries like russia venezuela and iran. they need oil to fetch $100 or more a barrel to fund the state budgets. >> from caracas to tehran to moscow couldn'ts that count on high oil prices are realing. >> the whole atmosphere can change drastically whether prices come down. >> the crude prices went down after they failed to cut down production, a tactic to protect riyad. >> the ones that need high prices are the iranians and the venezuelans who need $120. >> non-opec oil producers are in the cross hairs including russia already realing from sanctions and high inflation, moscow was counting on $100 a barrel to fund the putting. price pressures are building in north america where states that reap the windfall of the fracking boom are poised for lower tax revenues and fewer new jobs as drilling new wells becomes less profitable. white producers in governments that have grown fat off expensive oil are in for some belt tightening falling prices should cut others some much-needed slack. such is india and other developing countries that depend heavily on agriculture which consumes vast amounts of oil through inputs like fertilizer and pesticide production. in countries like the united states where people rely heavily on cars consumers are benefits from lower prices at the pump. but the big erwingest winner of all could be the global economy, as falling fuel and transport costs move money away from oil producers into consumers' pockets provided they spend the extra cash. earlier this week i talked to steve levine washington correspondent for the online news site quartz. he says oil will continue to drive a list of winners and losers on a global scale in 2015. we've already noted u.s. consumers are winning at pumps. i asked steve if it's the same for global consumers. >> well there's a little less glee abroad. there's some. the difference is our low gasoline taxes. so diesel prices european drivers most of them use diesel for their cars. diesel prices have dropped in europe, too. gasoline prices around the world, dice sell diesel prices, all consumer countries are doing very well. >> what about agricultural based economy, india, for example. does that help the economy in terms of lowering the price of diesel whiches a big input in agriculture? >> yes. india, indonesia, turkey these especially are countries that import a lot of fuel used in a lot of industrial and agricultural activities and so they're doing very, very well and, in fact, one thing that the governments are doing in some of these countries because of these low prices, thaf been able to withdraw subsidies. so it's a boon for the general economies, too, when the prices go back up those states will be much better put. they'll have to put much less money from the public coffers into subsidies. >> let's take a look at losers of course. we look at countries that rely very, very heavily on export hef news from oil. we have russia which was counting on $100 a barrel of oil next year and iran needs $140 a barrel and venezuela is another big loser. when you look at those countries that depend so heavily on oil exports, which one do you think is poised to be the biggest loser in 2015? >> venezuela. so it's not -- it has to double or triple-wham krimytriple-whammy. it's not just that oil prices are low and that the market is so glutted that there's a lot less nand for venezuelan oil, but it's by far the worst run petro state in the world. so, you know a lot of people believe that venezuela is headed for a default next year. the market the bond market puts the chance of a venezuelan default at over 90%. the other states russia is in a really bad situation, so it's got its companies and banks that have tens of billions of dollars of debt payments coming up next year. usually these bonds are rolled over through carryover loans from the same banks or for other banks, but european and u.s. banks, russia debt is off limits. where do these russian entities turn to to roll over their debts? the russian government has -- putin has promised he will cover the debts, but that means that the reserves the russian reserves, $250 billion are going to be drawn down. the longer that sanctions remain the worse the fiscal and monetary situation is going to be there, too. >> what about saudi arabia? this is an interesting case. of course, saudi arabia is having to move into its cash reserves, of course, to cover the shortfalls on the price of oil. they really have shown that they are a player that they're relevant and really flexing their muscle by refusing to cut out output to buoy prices. where do you put saudi arabia on the winners/losers scale? >> they're potentially -- you have to look at it as an investment. saudi arabia is betting that it can turn -- it can turn out the winner two, three, four five years down the road by keeping market share and forcing competitors out of the market and the competitors being primarying the united states but also brazil canada and some other states countries that are coming into the market and make remake saudi arabia and opec as the central player in global oil. with oil having dropped by 50%, oil prices since june that means that next year it will earn $150 billion less than it has on average the last three years. now, the saudis are very casual. they're saying we're indifferent to this. we're just going to wait. we have $750 billion in the bank. $150 billion less that's a lot of money. if that goes on year after year if it goes on five years that wipes out the whole 750. so i think that the saudis are putting on a game face but they believe the consensus that oil prices are going to turn back up the second half of next year back into 2016 so that this bet is going to pay off soon. i have my doubts. other players i think are very very compelling whether they say we have these kind of oil prices meaning between $60 and $70 a barrel through the end of the decade. >> steve levine, thank you so much for joining us. we appreciate it. >> thank you. russian president vladimir putin is certainly feeling the pain of falling oil prices. we'll tell you how dwindling oil revenues could undermine putin's leverage in the new cold war with the west. that and more after the break. >> stories that impact the world, affect the nation and touch your life. >> i'm back. i'm not going anywhere this time. >> only on al jazeera america. >> the death toll could be much higher than anyone known. >> posing as a buyer... >> ...people ready then... >> mr. president >> who should answer for those people [[vo]] an america tonight in-depth series. >>my first column was, “hey, where are the weed-smoking moms at?” [[vo]] one year legal. >>i'd try chem 4, alien dog, and girl scout cookies. 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[[vo]] the highs and lows of a year on pot. falling oil prices is another reason they're on shaking economic footing. the annual pay rate skyrocketed to 11.7% last year prompting russia's central bank to hike the interest rate to a dproet-chilling 17%. at the beginning of march last year it stood at 5.5%. imagine seeing your adjustable rate mortgage more than double in a year. the loss of confidence has triggered a wave of capital flight from russia estimated at some $128 billion. some companies are running into trouble servicing russia's corporate debt which shot up to $550 billion in 2014. all that pain gives the kremlin very little room to maneuver as western sanctions start to bite especially those blocking key firms tied to russian president vladimir putin's regime from refinancing debt redominated in dollars. it's engineered what amounts to a pail jot of state energy giant. russia does have a healthy foreign reserve fund to help weather the hard times, but whether you break it down that rainy day fund may not be as robust as it appears. $388.5 billion in foreign reserves, the cushion that's meant to see russia through its harshest economic climate since its 1998 debt default, but how long can that rainy day fund hold out? >> you can run the math and it doesn't last forever. >> russia has taken a $120 billion bite out of the reserves in the last year blowing the lion's share some $80 billion on defending the rouble. not all of the 388 billion left is easily tapped. $45 billion of russia's reserves are held in gold while another 12 billion is timed up with the imf mostly in noncash instruments. russia also counts roughly $170 billion in its kovrn wealth funds as reserves including the national wealth fund meant to cover a shortfall in state pensions. >> it's not clear how liquid the assets in that fund are. so probably they should be discounted a bit. >> deduct these potentially illiquid turms and the cushion doesn't look as plump, sobering because oil could fall further and firms targeted by sanctions can't refinance tens of billions of dollars worth of debt coming due this year. our next guest believes russia is headed toward a systemic crisis and very few people including russian president vladimir putin truly appreciate how the economic woes place so many elements of his rule under strain. mike is professor of global affairs at new york university. thank you for joining us. let's start with putin's grip on power. how is it going into the year? >> it's pretty much unchallenged on the the moment. there's no opposition movement. a few thousand in moscow doesn't count, and there's no real alternative candidates for power. there's no alternative ways to bleed out the tension within a system. you're for putin or against him. as normal pressures arise they have to think is putin really the guy we want in power? >> did the relet still see him as their protector, if you will? >> yes, but it's a very, very pragmatic move. 2015 was anyway before the sanctions a tough year for the economic, and everything coming down to the economy. that's how putin is in charge. he dispenses large bailouts and the opportunities to embezzle for massive value. as the cape beginning to shrink everyone starts to compete to hold onto their slice of the cake. up to this point, times have been good, so putin can buy everyone off. now he has to make smart decisions. who does he support and not support. some people think, hang on a minute. last year you were my protector, putin putin, and now you're not. what else do i do? >> let's talk about those tough decisions, because, of course so many aspects of the popularity and rule rest on making russia great again. we think about military spending. is he going to cut there? is he going to cut off money to the provinces, social spending? where is he likely to cut in your view? >> he's already begun to cut. we've seen most government ministries had to already swallow a 10% cut. the interesting thing is not the military and not the security operators and not the police. therefore, already we're beginning to see tough decisions made. although obviously the cuts in infrastructure and health and education and so forth dont have an instant effect. over the course of the year people start to notice that. that's the key thing, the pain will begin to accumulate. but even frankly within the military they begin to realize they have to start making tough decisions. there's talk about some new strategy bomber program that might be pushed back a few years here and there. although at the moment it's clear that he's prioritizing guns and not butter even the guns are actually beginning to come under question which says something about the extent to which even at the kremlin they realize these are tough times coming. >> when we look at russia's rainy day fund it can't last forever but it gives putin a cushion right now. when does the squeeze really start to feel very very tight? >> again, the issue is going to be when we start to actually see the current cuts beginning to be noticed on the streets. yes, he can continue to try and bolster the rouble. that is really burnt money. it has little impact in terms of how ordinary people experience the lives. the rouble matters to book the one-week package holiday in egypt or a spare part r for their imported car or whatever. >> so interesting you mention the packaged holiday in egypt, because we here with russia being able to get through the hard times. is that overblown a little bit? >> i think it is. in part in world war ii they had the stalin murder machine behind them. in those circumstances a lot of people are heroic. russians have had 20 years of first pain and then gain. in the last ten years they have lived better than russians have at any point in the history. they got used to it. this is why putin is so popular. it's not because of glories of the russian state. this is when they finally experienced and enjoyed consumerism. i think they really will notice it and resent him, because this is a social contract. putin more or less said to the russians, you stay out of politics and vote how you're meant to vote and so forth, and let us run things. in return your life will continue to get better. now it's not. >> we'll definitely watch this phase. i could talk to you for hours about this mark but we have to leave it there. thank you so much for joining us. we appreciate it. many americans think of undocumented workers as job stealers. coming up you'll need some immigrant job creators. you're watching "real money." 2015 will bring it with many new things including a brand-new session of congress the 114th to be exact. there is no shortage of big issues for legislators to consider. mcviqueira covers the white house and libby casey covers congress and together they give us a preview of some of the key topics congress and the obama administration will likely debate whether the senate and house convene on tuesday. >> libby, as we ring in 2015 the president faces a new political reality. for the first time in his term in office both the senate and house are controlled by republicans. on the face of it it's a recipe for more gridlock and more abbing moneyy. >> republicans are eager to pursue their own agenda now that they control the senate. there are some things the president will certainly veto and some the democrats are block in the senate with the threat of a filibuster. one of the top issues in january is the keystone xl pipeline. >> that's right. the incoming majority leader mitch mcconnell said that's the first order of business. it's expected to pass the house and senate. the president has been very coy about it hasn't said whether he would veto it or not. >> some things the president would certainly veto like an attempt at repealing the affordable care act or obamacare. republicans may try to chip away at it instead. they may go after the employer mandate. also the medical device tax. it's not just congress though that could influence the federal health care law. the supreme court will also be weighing in on this term, because they're taking up a case, a challenge to the federal subsidies that go to more than 4 million americans to help pay for health care. >> another area where there's no doubt the president would veto any attempt by republicans to turn back his initiative those executive actions on immigration. republicans are angered about that and no question they will try to turn it back. how can they do it? they might have to wait until 2017 until there's a new president and hope it's a republican. >> absolutely. they can push back politically, but the one mechanism they may have to fight the executive action is the power of the purse. watch for a battle in late february over funding the department of homeland security. republicans may try to use that as a way to stop the president's agenda. >> libby, another area where you see a big difference now with the republican-controlled senate is foreign policy. they're hawkish and push the president to get tough on assad, on putin and on iran over the ongoing nuclear talks. >> isil now mike republicans including the house speaker john boehner have voiced concerns over the past month that a military campaign launched from the air may not be enough. you can bet we will see a fight between the president and congress over what the president wants the authorization for use of force. >> one big date to circle on the calendar when it comes to a very controversial subject, june 1st the re-authorization of the patriot act and all of the controversial provisions therein. section 215 that deal with domestic surveillance and everything that became so controversial in the wake of the edward snowden revelations, june 1st they have to come to an agreement to re-authorize or curtail the programs. >> then the opening of cuba so we need to see how conk will wrae in on january. >> john boehner said no way the house will take up normal sglaks of relations or lifting the economic embargo in place for 53 years. >> which requires congress to act. >> it looks like the next two years more gridlock in washington. >> there are places with agreement, mainly taxes and trade. a lot of people say the corporate tax rate is too high. that could be an area the white house and congress work on together. in he remembers of trade, the president would love to see a deal with europe and asian trade deal and republicans could get on board because traditionally they've been pro-trade deal. >> democrats don't like trade deems ever since nafta when bill clinton pushed it through congress. it's bad for american workers, and the 2016 campaign to be the next person to live in the white house is going to quickly take over all the debate and rhetoric in washington in 2015. if the president and the republican congress are going to come together they're going to have a very short window next year in which to do it libya. >> they say the senate is comprised of 100 people that want to live here. on the republican side of the ail ted cruz and rand paul taking shots at each other to emerge as a republican leader. >> on the democratic side two potential presidential candidates bernie sanders the fire brand liberal from vermont. no question he'll going to run. elizabeth warren the democrat of massachusetts being urged by many on the left to get in the race. so far she's not agreed to do so. >> it's an interesting and dynamic year. put on your seat belt. >> lots of issues and decisions to be decided in 2015. >> mike viqueira and libby casey is our team in washington. this year one of the defining political issues is immigration and president obama's executive action to create a path towards citizenship for millions of people living illegally in the u.s. it's a common criticism that undocumented workers take jobs away from u.s. citizens by working for less money, but sometimes illegal i am dprants are the job creators. we have more. duarte fascinating story youen covered. >> it is. most people don't realize u.s. law doesn't prohibit undocumented iment grants from owning businesses and by some estimates hundreds of small businesses are owned by undocumented entrepreneurs who ironically employ u.s. citizens. >> it's like a cheese bowl. >> they own a bakery in north philadelphia. they're also undocumented i am the grants and came to the u.s. 11 years ago when tamara was 15. after years of working odd and insecure jobs, they decided to start their own business in 2009. >> it was just making sense for our own security and the economic security for the business even though we didn't know along the way what was going to happen with that because of the deportations. >> a fraction of every dollar the bakery earns is set aside for city state and federal taxes. the philadelphia department of health certified it. the business is legal in every way, even though aum of the owners are not. it's hard to say how many u.s. businesses are owned by the roughly 12 million undocumented people currently living in america. business owners don't need to declare it but one former university of california professor estimated between 8% and 10% of the undocumented are legal entrepreneurs. if true that would mean they own hundreds of thousands of u.s. businesses. immigration lawyer kimberly tomzak says it's common in philadelphia. >> a lot of my clients are business owners mostly in restaurants or convenience stores or corner storyes. you also see it with construction and contracting workers. >> becoming american business owners is an easy process that involving just a few forms. using a birth certificate or some form of official i.d. an immigrant can apply for an individual taxpayer number. with the itin in hand he can apply for an employer identification number. section 7-b of this form asks for a social security number or and this is how it is all possible, an itin number. once he's granted this i.d. the international revenue service considers him an owner of the legal u.s. business but the u.s. government can still deport him at any time. that's what happens to louis jiminez. he owns a restaurant in south philadelphia. he's not related to tamara. a few years ago the police were called after rowdy customers caused a disturbance. jiminez was arrested and immigration officials got involved and he faced possible deportation. how did you find the strength to continue working for the business whether so much was on the line? >> whethern i decided to do the business, i knew the risks and problems. >> she says the integration emigration judge use z his discretion to put the case on a hold in large part because he poses no threat to national security pays taxes, runs his business by the letter of the law, and also hires u.s. citizens. she brought up the restaurant as part of his legal defense. >> we use nen nus nen nus and review of yelp to show it's a success business. >> he's praised in the papers and on the web. back in forth philly she was one of of half million undomented people that can live and work legally in the u.s. for two years under a special program called deferred action but not her parents. >> if my mother gets deported it will just crush me. >> with so much at stake, tamara is an outspoken advocate fighting against i am grant deportations while try trying to ensure her family and business thrive in america. >> the president's executive action established a new program called deferred action for parentsal builtable. it would give her mother a renewable two-year reprieve from deportation. the application process is rigorous. >> what does her mother have to do to actually get the reprieve? >> at first she has to prove paternity, she's actually tamara's mother. that would involve some foreign birth certificates and can't have a criminal history. more importantly, she also has to show she's been in the country continuously since 2010. >> now, this may seem like an easy bar to clear, but if you live in the shawed does how duf that documentation on hand? you're trying to stay out of the lime light if you will? >> you hit it right on the head on this one. that's the difficult a lot of advocates are pointing to. how do these folks who are indocumented prove they're here? there are a couple of key ways they prove the advantage. if they have a legal business, they pay taxes and show proof that they exist and they were continuously operatings like we saw in that one particular case. if that's not the case it becomes doubly difficult and that's the challenge that millions of folks who are in this country illegally are facing right now. >> it's a fascinating report. thank you for sharing it with us. you will dig a lot deeper in the subject in the coming year. thank you. >> thank you. millions of americans are going to get something new in their next paycheck a raise! that's coming up in two minutes. stay with us. 2014 was a big year for the motor city. after 17 months america's largest municipal bankruptcy restructuring helped to save detroit from financial collapse. but it's not out of the woods yet. city leaders now have to chart a new course and it's not going to be easy. nearly 40% of detroiters live below the poverty line and tens of thousands of them are in danger of losing their homes. we're following the story in detroit. >> there are a number of factors. for one there are thousands of detroit residents who have fallen behind on their bills, but this is the first time that wayne county has foreclosed on every single property eligible for tax foreclosure. drive through parts of detroit and you'll see run-down homes and foreclosure notices. but look more closely and you see thriving neighborhoods of squatters. some like rosalynn johnson living in homes they once owned. what were the emotions that you felt buying your first home? >> i was excited. i mean you know you get excited. i felt that sense of pride. >> johnson is 47 and unemployed. her house was sold at auction in october because she was more than $15,000 behind on property taxes. >> it's hard. it's not easy. i really was upset about it losing it big-time. there's nothing i can do about it now. >> it's the same story for thousands of other detroiters in a city hid hit hard by poverty, blight and bankruptcy. another crisis looms. detroit is part of wayne county which is launching an aggressive campaign to foreclose on 62,000 properties. the owners owe more than $300 million in taxes. it's estimated that about 1 in 7 residents could be affected. >> it's absolutely a crisis and i think it's a crisis that ten years ago we saw coming. >> michigan state representative talib has pushed for reforms for years. she says detroit can't afford to lose any more residents. >> to me it's so valuable to keep those families in those homes and try to figure out a way that is not this whole one shoe fits all approach but looking at individual families. this is the future of all these foreclosed homes. >> that's what michelle did after serving tax foreclosed properties, the young writer launched a fund-raiser this year to help a dozen detroit families save their homes. donations helped families such as the esters buy back their homes for as little as $500 with no obligation to pay back taxes. >> truly represents a huge opportunity to have a clean slate just like the city has got in many respects with this bankruptcy. >> the esters nearly turned their backs on detroit. >> i am so grateful. i look at everything different now. i went from i should stop caring and making myself stop caring and being involved to now i'm ready to be -- i'm ready to invest myself back into the community because i'm here and i'm here to stay. i know i am. >> the esters say the problem is many residents don't have access to information that could help them. johnson is one of them. she says the new owners of her home aren't forcing her out yet, but she knows her days here are numbered. >> i'll be blessed with something else, if nots like this here, something better you know what i'm saying? i ain't going to worry about it. >> michigan lawmakers have approved legislation that will give people more time to pay off property taxes and lower the interest rate on penalties. the governor is expected to sign the bills into law. the move is too late to help johnson, but it could help keep tens of thousands of detroit families in their homes. detroit mayor mike duggan played an instrumental part in convincing lawmakers to pass legislation to help residents save their homes. it's also part of his plan to remove blight in the city and collect on lost revenue. al jazeera, detroit. for low wage workers every everyday payments are a struggle from cell phone bills to bus fare, sometimes folks have to choose between which bills get paid and which are delayed. that's a reality that lawmakers are focusing on this year. they have a minimum wage higher than $7.25 an hour which is what the federal government requires sxshg that's expected to boost the paychecks of 3.1 million people. robert ray has the story. >> on new year's day the minimum wage went up in 20 states and the district of columbia. >> still making it but i'm just getting by. you know what i'm saying? who wants to just get by? >> for many people this is a life changer, and it comes almost exactly a year after president obama called for raising the federal minimum to $10.10 an hour. >> today a mom or dad working full time on the minimum wage doesn't earn enough to make ends meet. that's not right. that's wrong. that's why it's long pastime for us to raise the minimum wage. >> the president's effort however, is mired on capitol hill. throughout 2015 three more states plus five major cities will be boosting the minimum. though many low-wage workers gets a raise in 2015 that's just not the case in some states especially here in georgia. state representative and president of the atlanta labor council dewey mcclain is trying to change that with a bill that would take the wage up to $15 an hour in the peach state, right now it's just $5.15. >> i would like to put 20 but i'm already being called way out of the box with 15. this will start the conversation. >> according to mcclain he has plenty of support from fellow democrats, and he will be working to convince republican lawmakers that the state's current rate is not high enough. >> the pushback that i hear is that they're saying that we won't make as much profit. we'll be out of business. i said you won't be out of business. you'll still make a profit. >> it's 15 cents, but 15 cents goes a long way. >> that means everything to some people. according to a recent bureau of labor report about 3 million low wage workers get a pay raise. the highest in the united states is state of washington at $9.47. meanwhile congress and the white house continue to battle over an increase to the federal wage which the president wants to be 1010 cent crept -- $10.10 per hour. the u.s. is laebing a new round of sanctions at north korea, something the white house billed as the first as perspective of our response to an alleged cyber attack against sony. i'll tell you why it matters after the break. >> this is another significant development... >> we have an exclusive story tonight, and we go live... president obama is striking back at north korea over allegations that the communist regime was behind devastating cyber attacks against sony. i ordered the united states treasury to tighten sanctions which have been in place more than half a century. the move singles out ten north korean government ofishlts and designates three organizations for additional sanctions further cutting them off from the u.s. financial system. u.s. trade with north korea rose to just 22$22 million in 2014 most of that in u.s. food exports. the white house defended the new sanctions in a statement today saying, quote, we take seriously north korea's attack that aimed at that create destructurive financial effects on a u.s. company and to threaten artists and other individuals with the goal of restricting their right to free expression. well sony wasn't immune to a data breach nor were its employees, and that's left many people wondering how to safeguard their personal information. well, darren is ceo of keeper security which specializes in secures personal information online. he joins us now via skype from chicago. thank you so much for joining us. let's start with industries. we saw sony be the victim of a very vicious hack. what other industries beyond entertainment do you feel are right to be targeted this year? >> we think merchandising most likely online in-store commerce. >> beyond store calmers, what about other areas. we've seen people mention that health care as more data goes online, is it at risk this year? >> i think anything that goes online is at risk. anything with a connection to the internet is absolutely at risk. >> okay. what threats do you think specifically are looming on the cyber security horizon if you will? the companies really have to be pro active about it. >> i think the most important thing to note is that number one, hackers are very intelligent as we all know now. they're well financed and well supported. they're pervasive. it's not necessarily specific to one country or the other. they just list everywhere both the united states and abroad. i think it's extremely important to practice really strong security protocols and internal controls whether you're a company and/or a consumer and with a consumer it starts as simple as using a password manager and digital vault for managing all of your passwords forsythes, everything from online banking to online commerce and retail as well as using a vault to secure and store all of your personal files, photos and videos. >> how can consumers know that that vault is even secure? that vault lives in the cloud, if you will. can it be hacked? >> anything can be hacked but i think it's really important that if you use a security centric product similar to ours which is a zero knowledge security platform and that's the key phrases, zero knowledge security, what that means is that we or the public does not have access to or knowledge of the master password or the encryption key used to encrypt and decrypt the information. even if a hacker is located in north korea for instance retrieved the file from the system they would not be able to open it because it's completely encrypted. >> almost every consumer nowadays has a smartphone. how do you protect the smartphone when you read reports that people hack into the camera on your smartphone and ghet your password simply by reading the reflection in your eyes? >> yeah. well, we use things like two factor awe they not takings and biometric authentication which reading the fingerprint of the users. it's extremely difficult for the hacker to gain access to the information. the most important thing is the encryption key to encrypt the data the consumer has is located on the device itself. so in order for a hacker to gain that, they would need the actual device themselves and since that hackers is located in a different country it's impossible to penetrate the value. >> darren that's all wif time for, but i really really appreciate you joining us. thank you. >> you're welcome. this week an egyptian court overturned the cases against three of our al jazeera colleagues imprisoned in egypt and ordered a retrial. they have spent more than a year in detention over charges of supporting terrorists and reporting false news about egypt, charges they strenuously deny. now two of our colleagues peter greste and fami are petitioning to be deported from the country. that's based on a recent egyptian decree that allows the country's president to deport foreigners on trial. for more on this erica has the report. >> it acknowledges that the first trial was flawed. >> from australia the brother of jailed al jazeera journalist peter greste is reacting to news of a retrial, while in egypt the family of his colleague and cell mate fami says it's not good enough. >> i was expecting a retrial, but i was expecting with that a release. >> it's hard to see your loved one behind bars for doing a job. >> the men have been behind bars for 370 days. an egyptian court convicted them of spreading false news and supported the outlawed muslim brotherhood. al jazeera has called the accusations absurd and repeatedly demanded the release. the greste family is now hoping egypt's president will use his powers to set peter free. >> the president has made numerous comments that he wished that they'd been deported. he wished they'd been deported if he was in power. we're confident that we might see some action on his behalf. >> meanwhile, international pressure is mounting against the egyptian government. both the u.s. and u.k. call for the journalists to be freed as #freeajstaff, press organizations are reacting to the order as well. >> we would like to see these three journalists completed freed, but at the same time we see a new trial as an opportunity for the court, for the egyptian judicial system to recognize that they are innocent. >> on the website amnesty international took that sentiment further by saying these men should never have been jailed in the first place and shouldn't have to spend one more day in prison. instead of prolongs the unjust detention pending a retrial, they must freed immediately. the greste family agrees and will keep pushing for justice. >> we stoningrongly believe peter is innocent and we won't give up until he's released. >> if his deportation application fails, his lawyer will apply for bail at the retrial. mow ma'am head who is egypt yann is not entitled to apply to be deported from egypt. he has option but to go ahead with a new trial, and that's expected to start within the next month. that's our show for today. ali velshi is back on monday. thanks for joining us and have a safe weekend. hello everybody, this is al jazeera america. i'm david schuster. john siegenthaler has the night off. cyber attack on sony, raising more questions, president obama. i.s.i.l. brings the front in iraq closer to u.s. troops. at random, the new research that says the vast majority of cancers have less to do with your b

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Transcripts For ALJAZAM Real Money With Ali Velshi 20150103 : Comparemela.com

Transcripts For ALJAZAM Real Money With Ali Velshi 20150103

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i'm in for ali velshi and this is "real money".." changing fortunes make out winners and losers in the global economy. for the first time since the recession, the united states is poised to be the engine of global growth not china, not emerging markets. the u.s. economy is expected to grow 3.1% this year the labor market is picking up steam, and we've seen a small but significant uptick in u.s. wages. meanwhile, china's spectacular growth story is not such a page turner anymore with many expecting the economy to grow roughly 7% this year. that's still a lot higher than the u.s. and it's a far cry from the double-digit growth china has seen in recent years. the european union, well, it's just plain stagnating. 1.8% economic growth is forecast for the eu this year. in response the european central bank chief said today he's ready to spend loads of cash to stimulate eu economies. that sent the dollar soaring against the euro to the highest level in five years, and the dollar is strengthening against other currencies. a 50% drop in oil prices is partly to blame, already the price drop is making losers out of oil-producing regions the world over from russia to iran and from texas to north dakota too. even so falling prices at the pump make winners out of u.s. consumers, but the stronger dollar will make losers of u.s. exporters as their products become more expensive to buy overseas. while the slowdown? in exports hurt american manufacturers it won't hurt the global economy. jay bryson joins us from charlotte, north carolina. jay, great to have you back on the show. let's start with the focus on the u.s. is the boost from consumer spending we expect to get from lower gas prices will that offset weaknesses we might see as a result of the strong dollar? >> yeah it should. i mean keep in mind that you know, consumer spending is two-thirds of the u.s. economy, exports is only 10%. even if consumer spending grows just a little bit and exports really weaken still given the size of consumer spending it should offset the drag from exports. >> let's broaden out the global picture, jay. what's your outlook for china this year? >> well so we think china in 2014 grew somewhere around 7.5%. we think that's going to probably slow to something 7% maybe a little bit below that. as you look into 2016 slower at 6.5%. that's slow by chinese standards. 6% to 7% growth is there. >> how do you see that rippling out through the global economy? >> well you know so if you look at some of china's main trading partners in asia slower growth in china is going to affect those economies as well. when you add everything up and you look at how big is the united states relative to china and what effect does it have on the global economy, the best way to measure these things shows that china is really up only 50% of the size or importance i should say in terms of the global economy. so a slower china certainly, you know, is not good for the global economy but as long as china doesn't completely implode, which we don't think it will happen the overall global economy should be okay in 2015. let's circle west and put the focus on europe. we have low inflation and some european countries in the grips of deflation. can they escape this? >> well it's going to be very very slow for them to do that. if you think of our economy, if you think of all the stimulus that the federal reserve implemented here in the united states it's five years of relatively slow growth five years of very low inflation, europe is just starting to get along with this. it's going to be a while yet before europe really starts to pick up some steam. >> do you think a quantitative easing program in europe will help to boost the price points a little bit, or do you think that they're in for another year another two years, another three years of pain? what's your outlook? >> well you know two or three years -- i don't know if it's necessarily pain but we're looking at two or three years of relatively slow growth. quantitative easing on the margin here helped but it's not the silver bullet. just because the ecb starts to buy government bonds, and that certainly is the expectation, it does not mean europe will go ahead this year. a slow europe for the next few years. >> this is a global economy, but up expect want u.s. to remain somewhat insulated from the head winds. why is that? >> well so if you look at the overall u.s. economy, you think about it what is it? it's largely a service-based economy. services just aren't traded all that very much. so you think of some of the bigger sectors in the economy. start with health care. how much is that affected by growth in the rest of the world? zero. education. how much is that affected by growth in the rest of the world? zero. >> construction, very little. if you look at the big sectors in the u.s. economy, they don't have a lot of ties with the rest of the world. so a real significant slowdown or downturn in the rest of the world would certainly hurt but if we're talking about slower global growth it doesn't cause the u.s. economy to go back into recession. >> final question, jay and, of course, this is the one so important to many viewers, and that is wages. we've seen a slight uptick in the last employment report. do you think this could be the year when u.s. workers start to see meaningful increase in their paychecks? >> i think it potentially could. keep in mind what's important at the end of the day is not necessarily, you know, what you see in your paycheck but it's adjusted for prices and adjusted for inflation. it's purchasing power, okay? what we do believe we will see this year is some acceleration in nominal wages, but inflation should be low. look at gasoline prices. they're down 40%, 50% over the last few months. that puts extra purchasing power in people's pockets, and so you know, at the end of the day that's important here. so we do believe that real purchasing power will be stronger in 2015 than last year. >> okay. well, here's hoping that those predictions come true. jay bryson from wells fargo, thank you for joining us. we really appreciate it. well american consumers probably love plunging oil prices and the lower gasoline prices along with them but countries that rely on oil to drive their economies are feeling economic pain right now. we have a look coming up. you're watching "real money." only on al jazeera america oil prices have fallen some 50% sin peaking in late june thanks to part to upstart u.s. shale producers flooding the market with new supply when global demand is ebbing. that swing of the price pendulum brought relief to consumers at the pumps while heaping pain on countries like russia venezuela and iran. they need oil to fetch $100 or more a barrel to fund the state budgets. >> from caracas to tehran to moscow couldn'ts that count on high oil prices are realing. >> the whole atmosphere can change drastically whether prices come down. >> the crude prices went down after they failed to cut down production, a tactic to protect riyad. >> the ones that need high prices are the iranians and the venezuelans who need $120. >> non-opec oil producers are in the cross hairs including russia already realing from sanctions and high inflation, moscow was counting on $100 a barrel to fund the putting. price pressures are building in north america where states that reap the windfall of the fracking boom are poised for lower tax revenues and fewer new jobs as drilling new wells becomes less profitable. white producers in governments that have grown fat off expensive oil are in for some belt tightening falling prices should cut others some much-needed slack. such is india and other developing countries that depend heavily on agriculture which consumes vast amounts of oil through inputs like fertilizer and pesticide production. in countries like the united states where people rely heavily on cars consumers are benefits from lower prices at the pump. but the big erwingest winner of all could be the global economy, as falling fuel and transport costs move money away from oil producers into consumers' pockets provided they spend the extra cash. earlier this week i talked to steve levine washington correspondent for the online news site quartz. he says oil will continue to drive a list of winners and losers on a global scale in 2015. we've already noted u.s. consumers are winning at pumps. i asked steve if it's the same for global consumers. >> well there's a little less glee abroad. there's some. the difference is our low gasoline taxes. so diesel prices european drivers most of them use diesel for their cars. diesel prices have dropped in europe, too. gasoline prices around the world, dice sell diesel prices, all consumer countries are doing very well. >> what about agricultural based economy, india, for example. does that help the economy in terms of lowering the price of diesel whiches a big input in agriculture? >> yes. india, indonesia, turkey these especially are countries that import a lot of fuel used in a lot of industrial and agricultural activities and so they're doing very, very well and, in fact, one thing that the governments are doing in some of these countries because of these low prices, thaf been able to withdraw subsidies. so it's a boon for the general economies, too, when the prices go back up those states will be much better put. they'll have to put much less money from the public coffers into subsidies. >> let's take a look at losers of course. we look at countries that rely very, very heavily on export hef news from oil. we have russia which was counting on $100 a barrel of oil next year and iran needs $140 a barrel and venezuela is another big loser. when you look at those countries that depend so heavily on oil exports, which one do you think is poised to be the biggest loser in 2015? >> venezuela. so it's not -- it has to double or triple-wham krimytriple-whammy. it's not just that oil prices are low and that the market is so glutted that there's a lot less nand for venezuelan oil, but it's by far the worst run petro state in the world. so, you know a lot of people believe that venezuela is headed for a default next year. the market the bond market puts the chance of a venezuelan default at over 90%. the other states russia is in a really bad situation, so it's got its companies and banks that have tens of billions of dollars of debt payments coming up next year. usually these bonds are rolled over through carryover loans from the same banks or for other banks, but european and u.s. banks, russia debt is off limits. where do these russian entities turn to to roll over their debts? the russian government has -- putin has promised he will cover the debts, but that means that the reserves the russian reserves, $250 billion are going to be drawn down. the longer that sanctions remain the worse the fiscal and monetary situation is going to be there, too. >> what about saudi arabia? this is an interesting case. of course, saudi arabia is having to move into its cash reserves, of course, to cover the shortfalls on the price of oil. they really have shown that they are a player that they're relevant and really flexing their muscle by refusing to cut out output to buoy prices. where do you put saudi arabia on the winners/losers scale? >> they're potentially -- you have to look at it as an investment. saudi arabia is betting that it can turn -- it can turn out the winner two, three, four five years down the road by keeping market share and forcing competitors out of the market and the competitors being primarying the united states but also brazil canada and some other states countries that are coming into the market and make remake saudi arabia and opec as the central player in global oil. with oil having dropped by 50%, oil prices since june that means that next year it will earn $150 billion less than it has on average the last three years. now, the saudis are very casual. they're saying we're indifferent to this. we're just going to wait. we have $750 billion in the bank. $150 billion less that's a lot of money. if that goes on year after year if it goes on five years that wipes out the whole 750. so i think that the saudis are putting on a game face but they believe the consensus that oil prices are going to turn back up the second half of next year back into 2016 so that this bet is going to pay off soon. i have my doubts. other players i think are very very compelling whether they say we have these kind of oil prices meaning between $60 and $70 a barrel through the end of the decade. >> steve levine, thank you so much for joining us. we appreciate it. >> thank you. russian president vladimir putin is certainly feeling the pain of falling oil prices. we'll tell you how dwindling oil revenues could undermine putin's leverage in the new cold war with the west. that and more after the break. >> stories that impact the world, affect the nation and touch your life. >> i'm back. i'm not going anywhere this time. >> only on al jazeera america. >> the death toll could be much higher than anyone known. >> posing as a buyer... >> ...people ready then... >> mr. president >> who should answer for those people [[vo]] an america tonight in-depth series. >>my first column was, “hey, where are the weed-smoking moms at?” [[vo]] one year legal. >>i'd try chem 4, alien dog, and girl scout cookies. [[vo]] and it's become big business. >>the state of colorado is profiting immensely off of this. [[vo]] now, we cut through the smoke and find out what's really going on. >>we can show marijuana is leaving colorado. [[vo]] the highs and lows of a year on pot. falling oil prices is another reason they're on shaking economic footing. the annual pay rate skyrocketed to 11.7% last year prompting russia's central bank to hike the interest rate to a dproet-chilling 17%. at the beginning of march last year it stood at 5.5%. imagine seeing your adjustable rate mortgage more than double in a year. the loss of confidence has triggered a wave of capital flight from russia estimated at some $128 billion. some companies are running into trouble servicing russia's corporate debt which shot up to $550 billion in 2014. all that pain gives the kremlin very little room to maneuver as western sanctions start to bite especially those blocking key firms tied to russian president vladimir putin's regime from refinancing debt redominated in dollars. it's engineered what amounts to a pail jot of state energy giant. russia does have a healthy foreign reserve fund to help weather the hard times, but whether you break it down that rainy day fund may not be as robust as it appears. $388.5 billion in foreign reserves, the cushion that's meant to see russia through its harshest economic climate since its 1998 debt default, but how long can that rainy day fund hold out? >> you can run the math and it doesn't last forever. >> russia has taken a $120 billion bite out of the reserves in the last year blowing the lion's share some $80 billion on defending the rouble. not all of the 388 billion left is easily tapped. $45 billion of russia's reserves are held in gold while another 12 billion is timed up with the imf mostly in noncash instruments. russia also counts roughly $170 billion in its kovrn wealth funds as reserves including the national wealth fund meant to cover a shortfall in state pensions. >> it's not clear how liquid the assets in that fund are. so probably they should be discounted a bit. >> deduct these potentially illiquid turms and the cushion doesn't look as plump, sobering because oil could fall further and firms targeted by sanctions can't refinance tens of billions of dollars worth of debt coming due this year. our next guest believes russia is headed toward a systemic crisis and very few people including russian president vladimir putin truly appreciate how the economic woes place so many elements of his rule under strain. mike is professor of global affairs at new york university. thank you for joining us. let's start with putin's grip on power. how is it going into the year? >> it's pretty much unchallenged on the the moment. there's no opposition movement. a few thousand in moscow doesn't count, and there's no real alternative candidates for power. there's no alternative ways to bleed out the tension within a system. you're for putin or against him. as normal pressures arise they have to think is putin really the guy we want in power? >> did the relet still see him as their protector, if you will? >> yes, but it's a very, very pragmatic move. 2015 was anyway before the sanctions a tough year for the economic, and everything coming down to the economy. that's how putin is in charge. he dispenses large bailouts and the opportunities to embezzle for massive value. as the cape beginning to shrink everyone starts to compete to hold onto their slice of the cake. up to this point, times have been good, so putin can buy everyone off. now he has to make smart decisions. who does he support and not support. some people think, hang on a minute. last year you were my protector, putin putin, and now you're not. what else do i do? >> let's talk about those tough decisions, because, of course so many aspects of the popularity and rule rest on making russia great again. we think about military spending. is he going to cut there? is he going to cut off money to the provinces, social spending? where is he likely to cut in your view? >> he's already begun to cut. we've seen most government ministries had to already swallow a 10% cut. the interesting thing is not the military and not the security operators and not the police. therefore, already we're beginning to see tough decisions made. although obviously the cuts in infrastructure and health and education and so forth dont have an instant effect. over the course of the year people start to notice that. that's the key thing, the pain will begin to accumulate. but even frankly within the military they begin to realize they have to start making tough decisions. there's talk about some new strategy bomber program that might be pushed back a few years here and there. although at the moment it's clear that he's prioritizing guns and not butter even the guns are actually beginning to come under question which says something about the extent to which even at the kremlin they realize these are tough times coming. >> when we look at russia's rainy day fund it can't last forever but it gives putin a cushion right now. when does the squeeze really start to feel very very tight? >> again, the issue is going to be when we start to actually see the current cuts beginning to be noticed on the streets. yes, he can continue to try and bolster the rouble. that is really burnt money. it has little impact in terms of how ordinary people experience the lives. the rouble matters to book the one-week package holiday in egypt or a spare part r for their imported car or whatever. >> so interesting you mention the packaged holiday in egypt, because we here with russia being able to get through the hard times. is that overblown a little bit? >> i think it is. in part in world war ii they had the stalin murder machine behind them. in those circumstances a lot of people are heroic. russians have had 20 years of first pain and then gain. in the last ten years they have lived better than russians have at any point in the history. they got used to it. this is why putin is so popular. it's not because of glories of the russian state. this is when they finally experienced and enjoyed consumerism. i think they really will notice it and resent him, because this is a social contract. putin more or less said to the russians, you stay out of politics and vote how you're meant to vote and so forth, and let us run things. in return your life will continue to get better. now it's not. >> we'll definitely watch this phase. i could talk to you for hours about this mark but we have to leave it there. thank you so much for joining us. we appreciate it. many americans think of undocumented workers as job stealers. coming up you'll need some immigrant job creators. you're watching "real money." 2015 will bring it with many new things including a brand-new session of congress the 114th to be exact. there is no shortage of big issues for legislators to consider. mcviqueira covers the white house and libby casey covers congress and together they give us a preview of some of the key topics congress and the obama administration will likely debate whether the senate and house convene on tuesday. >> libby, as we ring in 2015 the president faces a new political reality. for the first time in his term in office both the senate and house are controlled by republicans. on the face of it it's a recipe for more gridlock and more abbing moneyy. >> republicans are eager to pursue their own agenda now that they control the senate. there are some things the president will certainly veto and some the democrats are block in the senate with the threat of a filibuster. one of the top issues in january is the keystone xl pipeline. >> that's right. the incoming majority leader mitch mcconnell said that's the first order of business. it's expected to pass the house and senate. the president has been very coy about it hasn't said whether he would veto it or not. >> some things the president would certainly veto like an attempt at repealing the affordable care act or obamacare. republicans may try to chip away at it instead. they may go after the employer mandate. also the medical device tax. it's not just congress though that could influence the federal health care law. the supreme court will also be weighing in on this term, because they're taking up a case, a challenge to the federal subsidies that go to more than 4 million americans to help pay for health care. >> another area where there's no doubt the president would veto any attempt by republicans to turn back his initiative those executive actions on immigration. republicans are angered about that and no question they will try to turn it back. how can they do it? they might have to wait until 2017 until there's a new president and hope it's a republican. >> absolutely. they can push back politically, but the one mechanism they may have to fight the executive action is the power of the purse. watch for a battle in late february over funding the department of homeland security. republicans may try to use that as a way to stop the president's agenda. >> libby, another area where you see a big difference now with the republican-controlled senate is foreign policy. they're hawkish and push the president to get tough on assad, on putin and on iran over the ongoing nuclear talks. >> isil now mike republicans including the house speaker john boehner have voiced concerns over the past month that a military campaign launched from the air may not be enough. you can bet we will see a fight between the president and congress over what the president wants the authorization for use of force. >> one big date to circle on the calendar when it comes to a very controversial subject, june 1st the re-authorization of the patriot act and all of the controversial provisions therein. section 215 that deal with domestic surveillance and everything that became so controversial in the wake of the edward snowden revelations, june 1st they have to come to an agreement to re-authorize or curtail the programs. >> then the opening of cuba so we need to see how conk will wrae in on january. >> john boehner said no way the house will take up normal sglaks of relations or lifting the economic embargo in place for 53 years. >> which requires congress to act. >> it looks like the next two years more gridlock in washington. >> there are places with agreement, mainly taxes and trade. a lot of people say the corporate tax rate is too high. that could be an area the white house and congress work on together. in he remembers of trade, the president would love to see a deal with europe and asian trade deal and republicans could get on board because traditionally they've been pro-trade deal. >> democrats don't like trade deems ever since nafta when bill clinton pushed it through congress. it's bad for american workers, and the 2016 campaign to be the next person to live in the white house is going to quickly take over all the debate and rhetoric in washington in 2015. if the president and the republican congress are going to come together they're going to have a very short window next year in which to do it libya. >> they say the senate is comprised of 100 people that want to live here. on the republican side of the ail ted cruz and rand paul taking shots at each other to emerge as a republican leader. >> on the democratic side two potential presidential candidates bernie sanders the fire brand liberal from vermont. no question he'll going to run. elizabeth warren the democrat of massachusetts being urged by many on the left to get in the race. so far she's not agreed to do so. >> it's an interesting and dynamic year. put on your seat belt. >> lots of issues and decisions to be decided in 2015. >> mike viqueira and libby casey is our team in washington. this year one of the defining political issues is immigration and president obama's executive action to create a path towards citizenship for millions of people living illegally in the u.s. it's a common criticism that undocumented workers take jobs away from u.s. citizens by working for less money, but sometimes illegal i am dprants are the job creators. we have more. duarte fascinating story youen covered. >> it is. most people don't realize u.s. law doesn't prohibit undocumented iment grants from owning businesses and by some estimates hundreds of small businesses are owned by undocumented entrepreneurs who ironically employ u.s. citizens. >> it's like a cheese bowl. >> they own a bakery in north philadelphia. they're also undocumented i am the grants and came to the u.s. 11 years ago when tamara was 15. after years of working odd and insecure jobs, they decided to start their own business in 2009. >> it was just making sense for our own security and the economic security for the business even though we didn't know along the way what was going to happen with that because of the deportations. >> a fraction of every dollar the bakery earns is set aside for city state and federal taxes. the philadelphia department of health certified it. the business is legal in every way, even though aum of the owners are not. it's hard to say how many u.s. businesses are owned by the roughly 12 million undocumented people currently living in america. business owners don't need to declare it but one former university of california professor estimated between 8% and 10% of the undocumented are legal entrepreneurs. if true that would mean they own hundreds of thousands of u.s. businesses. immigration lawyer kimberly tomzak says it's common in philadelphia. >> a lot of my clients are business owners mostly in restaurants or convenience stores or corner storyes. you also see it with construction and contracting workers. >> becoming american business owners is an easy process that involving just a few forms. using a birth certificate or some form of official i.d. an immigrant can apply for an individual taxpayer number. with the itin in hand he can apply for an employer identification number. section 7-b of this form asks for a social security number or and this is how it is all possible, an itin number. once he's granted this i.d. the international revenue service considers him an owner of the legal u.s. business but the u.s. government can still deport him at any time. that's what happens to louis jiminez. he owns a restaurant in south philadelphia. he's not related to tamara. a few years ago the police were called after rowdy customers caused a disturbance. jiminez was arrested and immigration officials got involved and he faced possible deportation. how did you find the strength to continue working for the business whether so much was on the line? >> whethern i decided to do the business, i knew the risks and problems. >> she says the integration emigration judge use z his discretion to put the case on a hold in large part because he poses no threat to national security pays taxes, runs his business by the letter of the law, and also hires u.s. citizens. she brought up the restaurant as part of his legal defense. >> we use nen nus nen nus and review of yelp to show it's a success business. >> he's praised in the papers and on the web. back in forth philly she was one of of half million undomented people that can live and work legally in the u.s. for two years under a special program called deferred action but not her parents. >> if my mother gets deported it will just crush me. >> with so much at stake, tamara is an outspoken advocate fighting against i am grant deportations while try trying to ensure her family and business thrive in america. >> the president's executive action established a new program called deferred action for parentsal builtable. it would give her mother a renewable two-year reprieve from deportation. the application process is rigorous. >> what does her mother have to do to actually get the reprieve? >> at first she has to prove paternity, she's actually tamara's mother. that would involve some foreign birth certificates and can't have a criminal history. more importantly, she also has to show she's been in the country continuously since 2010. >> now, this may seem like an easy bar to clear, but if you live in the shawed does how duf that documentation on hand? you're trying to stay out of the lime light if you will? >> you hit it right on the head on this one. that's the difficult a lot of advocates are pointing to. how do these folks who are indocumented prove they're here? there are a couple of key ways they prove the advantage. if they have a legal business, they pay taxes and show proof that they exist and they were continuously operatings like we saw in that one particular case. if that's not the case it becomes doubly difficult and that's the challenge that millions of folks who are in this country illegally are facing right now. >> it's a fascinating report. thank you for sharing it with us. you will dig a lot deeper in the subject in the coming year. thank you. >> thank you. millions of americans are going to get something new in their next paycheck a raise! that's coming up in two minutes. stay with us. 2014 was a big year for the motor city. after 17 months america's largest municipal bankruptcy restructuring helped to save detroit from financial collapse. but it's not out of the woods yet. city leaders now have to chart a new course and it's not going to be easy. nearly 40% of detroiters live below the poverty line and tens of thousands of them are in danger of losing their homes. we're following the story in detroit. >> there are a number of factors. for one there are thousands of detroit residents who have fallen behind on their bills, but this is the first time that wayne county has foreclosed on every single property eligible for tax foreclosure. drive through parts of detroit and you'll see run-down homes and foreclosure notices. but look more closely and you see thriving neighborhoods of squatters. some like rosalynn johnson living in homes they once owned. what were the emotions that you felt buying your first home? >> i was excited. i mean you know you get excited. i felt that sense of pride. >> johnson is 47 and unemployed. her house was sold at auction in october because she was more than $15,000 behind on property taxes. >> it's hard. it's not easy. i really was upset about it losing it big-time. there's nothing i can do about it now. >> it's the same story for thousands of other detroiters in a city hid hit hard by poverty, blight and bankruptcy. another crisis looms. detroit is part of wayne county which is launching an aggressive campaign to foreclose on 62,000 properties. the owners owe more than $300 million in taxes. it's estimated that about 1 in 7 residents could be affected. >> it's absolutely a crisis and i think it's a crisis that ten years ago we saw coming. >> michigan state representative talib has pushed for reforms for years. she says detroit can't afford to lose any more residents. >> to me it's so valuable to keep those families in those homes and try to figure out a way that is not this whole one shoe fits all approach but looking at individual families. this is the future of all these foreclosed homes. >> that's what michelle did after serving tax foreclosed properties, the young writer launched a fund-raiser this year to help a dozen detroit families save their homes. donations helped families such as the esters buy back their homes for as little as $500 with no obligation to pay back taxes. >> truly represents a huge opportunity to have a clean slate just like the city has got in many respects with this bankruptcy. >> the esters nearly turned their backs on detroit. >> i am so grateful. i look at everything different now. i went from i should stop caring and making myself stop caring and being involved to now i'm ready to be -- i'm ready to invest myself back into the community because i'm here and i'm here to stay. i know i am. >> the esters say the problem is many residents don't have access to information that could help them. johnson is one of them. she says the new owners of her home aren't forcing her out yet, but she knows her days here are numbered. >> i'll be blessed with something else, if nots like this here, something better you know what i'm saying? i ain't going to worry about it. >> michigan lawmakers have approved legislation that will give people more time to pay off property taxes and lower the interest rate on penalties. the governor is expected to sign the bills into law. the move is too late to help johnson, but it could help keep tens of thousands of detroit families in their homes. detroit mayor mike duggan played an instrumental part in convincing lawmakers to pass legislation to help residents save their homes. it's also part of his plan to remove blight in the city and collect on lost revenue. al jazeera, detroit. for low wage workers every everyday payments are a struggle from cell phone bills to bus fare, sometimes folks have to choose between which bills get paid and which are delayed. that's a reality that lawmakers are focusing on this year. they have a minimum wage higher than $7.25 an hour which is what the federal government requires sxshg that's expected to boost the paychecks of 3.1 million people. robert ray has the story. >> on new year's day the minimum wage went up in 20 states and the district of columbia. >> still making it but i'm just getting by. you know what i'm saying? who wants to just get by? >> for many people this is a life changer, and it comes almost exactly a year after president obama called for raising the federal minimum to $10.10 an hour. >> today a mom or dad working full time on the minimum wage doesn't earn enough to make ends meet. that's not right. that's wrong. that's why it's long pastime for us to raise the minimum wage. >> the president's effort however, is mired on capitol hill. throughout 2015 three more states plus five major cities will be boosting the minimum. though many low-wage workers gets a raise in 2015 that's just not the case in some states especially here in georgia. state representative and president of the atlanta labor council dewey mcclain is trying to change that with a bill that would take the wage up to $15 an hour in the peach state, right now it's just $5.15. >> i would like to put 20 but i'm already being called way out of the box with 15. this will start the conversation. >> according to mcclain he has plenty of support from fellow democrats, and he will be working to convince republican lawmakers that the state's current rate is not high enough. >> the pushback that i hear is that they're saying that we won't make as much profit. we'll be out of business. i said you won't be out of business. you'll still make a profit. >> it's 15 cents, but 15 cents goes a long way. >> that means everything to some people. according to a recent bureau of labor report about 3 million low wage workers get a pay raise. the highest in the united states is state of washington at $9.47. meanwhile congress and the white house continue to battle over an increase to the federal wage which the president wants to be 1010 cent crept -- $10.10 per hour. the u.s. is laebing a new round of sanctions at north korea, something the white house billed as the first as perspective of our response to an alleged cyber attack against sony. i'll tell you why it matters after the break. >> this is another significant development... >> we have an exclusive story tonight, and we go live... president obama is striking back at north korea over allegations that the communist regime was behind devastating cyber attacks against sony. i ordered the united states treasury to tighten sanctions which have been in place more than half a century. the move singles out ten north korean government ofishlts and designates three organizations for additional sanctions further cutting them off from the u.s. financial system. u.s. trade with north korea rose to just 22$22 million in 2014 most of that in u.s. food exports. the white house defended the new sanctions in a statement today saying, quote, we take seriously north korea's attack that aimed at that create destructurive financial effects on a u.s. company and to threaten artists and other individuals with the goal of restricting their right to free expression. well sony wasn't immune to a data breach nor were its employees, and that's left many people wondering how to safeguard their personal information. well, darren is ceo of keeper security which specializes in secures personal information online. he joins us now via skype from chicago. thank you so much for joining us. let's start with industries. we saw sony be the victim of a very vicious hack. what other industries beyond entertainment do you feel are right to be targeted this year? >> we think merchandising most likely online in-store commerce. >> beyond store calmers, what about other areas. we've seen people mention that health care as more data goes online, is it at risk this year? >> i think anything that goes online is at risk. anything with a connection to the internet is absolutely at risk. >> okay. what threats do you think specifically are looming on the cyber security horizon if you will? the companies really have to be pro active about it. >> i think the most important thing to note is that number one, hackers are very intelligent as we all know now. they're well financed and well supported. they're pervasive. it's not necessarily specific to one country or the other. they just list everywhere both the united states and abroad. i think it's extremely important to practice really strong security protocols and internal controls whether you're a company and/or a consumer and with a consumer it starts as simple as using a password manager and digital vault for managing all of your passwords forsythes, everything from online banking to online commerce and retail as well as using a vault to secure and store all of your personal files, photos and videos. >> how can consumers know that that vault is even secure? that vault lives in the cloud, if you will. can it be hacked? >> anything can be hacked but i think it's really important that if you use a security centric product similar to ours which is a zero knowledge security platform and that's the key phrases, zero knowledge security, what that means is that we or the public does not have access to or knowledge of the master password or the encryption key used to encrypt and decrypt the information. even if a hacker is located in north korea for instance retrieved the file from the system they would not be able to open it because it's completely encrypted. >> almost every consumer nowadays has a smartphone. how do you protect the smartphone when you read reports that people hack into the camera on your smartphone and ghet your password simply by reading the reflection in your eyes? >> yeah. well, we use things like two factor awe they not takings and biometric authentication which reading the fingerprint of the users. it's extremely difficult for the hacker to gain access to the information. the most important thing is the encryption key to encrypt the data the consumer has is located on the device itself. so in order for a hacker to gain that, they would need the actual device themselves and since that hackers is located in a different country it's impossible to penetrate the value. >> darren that's all wif time for, but i really really appreciate you joining us. thank you. >> you're welcome. this week an egyptian court overturned the cases against three of our al jazeera colleagues imprisoned in egypt and ordered a retrial. they have spent more than a year in detention over charges of supporting terrorists and reporting false news about egypt, charges they strenuously deny. now two of our colleagues peter greste and fami are petitioning to be deported from the country. that's based on a recent egyptian decree that allows the country's president to deport foreigners on trial. for more on this erica has the report. >> it acknowledges that the first trial was flawed. >> from australia the brother of jailed al jazeera journalist peter greste is reacting to news of a retrial, while in egypt the family of his colleague and cell mate fami says it's not good enough. >> i was expecting a retrial, but i was expecting with that a release. >> it's hard to see your loved one behind bars for doing a job. >> the men have been behind bars for 370 days. an egyptian court convicted them of spreading false news and supported the outlawed muslim brotherhood. al jazeera has called the accusations absurd and repeatedly demanded the release. the greste family is now hoping egypt's president will use his powers to set peter free. >> the president has made numerous comments that he wished that they'd been deported. he wished they'd been deported if he was in power. we're confident that we might see some action on his behalf. >> meanwhile, international pressure is mounting against the egyptian government. both the u.s. and u.k. call for the journalists to be freed as #freeajstaff, press organizations are reacting to the order as well. >> we would like to see these three journalists completed freed, but at the same time we see a new trial as an opportunity for the court, for the egyptian judicial system to recognize that they are innocent. >> on the website amnesty international took that sentiment further by saying these men should never have been jailed in the first place and shouldn't have to spend one more day in prison. instead of prolongs the unjust detention pending a retrial, they must freed immediately. the greste family agrees and will keep pushing for justice. >> we stoningrongly believe peter is innocent and we won't give up until he's released. >> if his deportation application fails, his lawyer will apply for bail at the retrial. mow ma'am head who is egypt yann is not entitled to apply to be deported from egypt. he has option but to go ahead with a new trial, and that's expected to start within the next month. that's our show for today. ali velshi is back on monday. thanks for joining us and have a safe weekend. hello everybody, this is al jazeera america. i'm david schuster. john siegenthaler has the night off. cyber attack on sony, raising more questions, president obama. i.s.i.l. brings the front in iraq closer to u.s. troops. at random, the new research that says the vast majority of cancers have less to do with your b

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