This is real money. You are the most important part of the show, so tell me what is on your mind. Weather, war and demand have taken a toll on the Global Economy today, and they are the reason the International Financial bang cut its forecast to 3. 4 . You can see that in the middle of your screen. It is better than the 3. 2 that the Global Economy grew last year on the last, and the imfcs growth accelerating to 4 in 2015. But i want to zero in on three of the countries responsible for the gloomier growth forecast. Exhibit, a, the United States. Bad weather and other factors caused the imf to lower its forecast. Next up is china where weaker than expected spending by consumers and businesses lead the imf to reduce its forecast slightly to 7. 4 growth. And unlike the u. S. The imf predicts Slower Growth next year. And russias economy is seen growing just. 2 of a percent this year, and investors yanked money out of the country since the developments in crimea. The prospect of increased sanctions against russia as the conflict in ukraine continues has some analysts predicting an outright recession in russia and as you can see it is planning to grow. 2 of 1 so recession is not too far off. The imf warned that conflict in the middle east and other political risks could lead to sharply Higher Oil Prices. Back in this country the risk of longterm Rising Interest Rates could also destabilize an economy is only now getting back on its feet. The imf called for more investment and infrastructure. Joining me to now to explain what other specific steps governments can take to improve the outlook for Global Growth is the division chief of the Research Department at the imf. Thank you for joining us, and thank you for this report. Thank you, ali. First of all to put it into context, this is the second time, really, that we have seen downward revisions for 2014. For my viewers who dont spend their time sort of necessarily studying normal Economic Growth trends where does 3. 4 Global Growth stand . Is it good, bad, medium . Its medium. Its not good. The Global Economy the normal growth is about 4 or higher, so in that sense its a weak recovery. The global recover the Global Economy is not in a recession. The Major Economies are growing, have turned the corner, thats the good news, but the recovery is unevening across the globe and it is weak. So in that sense we remain concerned about the robustness of the Global Economy and i nurtured. But you predict that 2015 will reach 4 global. Thats not bad, although you do warn you think youll see slowing in some areas in china . So the slowing in china is actually welcome. We long have felt for some sometime that that very high growth in china was not sustainable anymore. It was unbalanced. It was too focused on investment that grew too rapidly with [ technical difficulties ] too much credit [ technical difficulties ] growth in china is slowing is a good is a good development. But the concern is it should be [ technical difficulties ] to somewhat we have in our forecast, so we dont see a strong [ technical difficulties ] gradual decline in growth to about 6. 5 over a fiveyear period. So thats an orderly transition. Oil has been hanging around in price for some time, there has been an up tick in the last few weeks, but you are concerned about an increase in oil prices. Tell me why. We know in the United States were increasing output, and consumption in many nations is [ technical difficulties ] so what is driving your concern . Concern about all prices, really risk that there is a dramatic deterioration in the balances in the oil markets. So what i mean is in our price [ technical difficulties ] relatively weak reflects the state of the Global Economy. Especially in the middle east, oil supply in the United States is growing, is increasing, and that is offsetting the impact we would have seen otherwise, but you could imagine that there could be a more dramatic deterioration in supply outages, and that is the concern for supply spikes. Were going to speaking in another segment about Oil Production globally so this is an important point. Now lets talk about the United States. Obviously the United States is quite responsible for a large chunk of this this downward revision in the forecast for 2014. A lot of that is because the u. S. Had a very rough first year. Are you confident that the u. S. Is back on track . And are you worried about the Federal Reserve getting out of the stimulus business in the way that it has been . No, so for the u. S. Economy, we think its largely a matter of a very bad First Quarter, much worst than expected. And what we think is that growth in the United States will rebound. We already see that in the in coming data in the us. We see expect quite the solid rebound, so we expect growth in the United States for the rest of the year to be above 3 . So in that sense, the the reason for the why annual growth in 2014 is considerably weaker than we expected is quarter. Is theres a lot of grimness in this report. You did mention that the one part that somebody might think is negative, Slower Growth in china is actually a positive. What are the bright spots in your report . There are also upward revisions. We have upward revisions in germany, in the united kingdom, and we have upward revisions in japan, which is very encouraging where economics seems to gain traction despite the increase in the consumption tax and the reduction in the previous fiscal stimulus, which is being unwound over the next year or so, and that is encouraging. The private demand, including investment has started to pick up in japan, so there are bright spots, and broodly speaking, our in coming data seems to confirm that much of the Slower Growth we saw in the First Quarter was temporary and that the Global Economy is reverting back to trajectory we for example had in the april 2014 World Economic outlook, or the january World Economic outlook. Thomas what a pleasure to talk to you. Thank you for putting out the report and sharing some of the findings with us. Americas right in the middle of a fracing boom, but the rest of the world isnt quite there yet. Ill tell you why. And if you are looking for a job, ill tell you about a field that cant find enough skilled workers. That story and more as real money continues. Keep it right here. On Al Jazeera America presents we always have strikes. People should never be allowed. What started as a peaceful protest police seem to stick to the selfdefense story became a horrific moment in South African history i dont think any organization in this country would ever anticipate this type of violence what really happened that tragic day . It is the time to point finger at those whose fingers pulled the trigger its a chilling and draconian sentence. It simply cannot stand. This trial was a sham. They are truth seekers. All they really wanna do is find out whats happening, so they can tell people. Governments around the world all united to condemn this. As you can see, its still a very much volatile situation. The government is prepared to carry out mass array. If you want free press in the new democracy, let the journalists live. Audiences are intelligent and they know that their needs are not being met by american tv news today. Entire media culture is driven by something thats very very fast. There has been a lack of fact based, in depth, serious journalism, and we fill that void. There is a huge opportunity for Al Jazeera America to change the way people look at news. We just dont parachute in on a story. Quickly talk to a couple of experts and leave. One producer may spend 3 or 4 months, digging into a single story. At al jazeera, there are resources to alow us as journalists to go in depth and produce the kind of films. The people that you dont see anywhere else on television. We intend to reach out to the people who arent being heard. We wanna see the people who are actually effected by the news of the day. Its Digging Deeper its asking that second, that third question, finding that person no one spoken to yet. You cant tell the stories of the people if you dont get their voices out there, and Al Jazeera America is doing just that. The European Union still cant agree on tougher sanctions against russia for its support of rebels in ukraine. Diplomats have gathered to try to come up with some form of punishment. Restrict k russian access to military banks and equipment are on the table. Ambassadors did agree to add 15 people and 18 entities to the eus frozen assets list. These sanctions are meant to pressure putin to stop backing the rebels. Meanwhile a government shakeup in ukraine. The Prime Minister resigned today after two parties left the coalition go. The move was welcomed by the president , who can now dissolve parliament and call for new elections. He promised elections after he became president in may. The situation in ukraine has drawn attention to europes deep dependance on russia for energy. Meanwhile americas dependance on Foreign Energy has drooped thanks to fracing. Other nations are taking note. They are all weighing the merits of fracing, but as david reports, big obstacles stand in the way. Reporter this is the face of new energy renaissance. Drillers extract crude oil and natural gas through fracing. Water, sanged, and chemicals are pumped into the ground at High Pressure to break up shale rock formations. The u. S. , latin america, north africa, europe and asia, collectively hold an estimated 335 billion barrels of shale oil, and natural gas all trapped in shale rock formations, but as of now only the u. S. And canada are producing shale oil and gas in commercial quantities. The u. S. Which fracs almost 100 new wells per day, now contributes nearly 10 of the total crude oil world supply. Issues like access to mineral rights, higher taxes, and stricter regulations in some countries tend to make america more frac friendly. Green parties which tend to wield more influence in europe than the u. S. Have sited concerns about Residents Health and effect on air and water quality. If this shale fracing technique takes off, china and europe, and africa, some other places, you could have a ocean sudden. Reporter and that could change the math for Companies Investing in americas oil boom. Russia has by far the most of any nation. China ranks second behind the United States, and both hope to Foster Energy booms of their own. When it comes to europe and its sanctions on russia, germany and italy are really pushing back on the idea of sanctions because they are so dependant on russian natural gas. In germany lifted its moratorium on fracing that country could be free of its independence of russia in 15 years. Thats according to the author of this book. He is also vice chairman at Research Firm ish. He joins us from washington. Dan thank you for being with us. Germany an industrial powerhouse, a country we do not want to slip into any kind of recession is really dependent on this gas coming from russia, and as a result in hamstrung on sanctions against russia. Germany gets about 30, 35 of its natural gas from russia as of course has a very dense trading relationship with russia, and so is very sensitive to those questions, but i think that, you know, what were seeing building up in europe is that there will be more sanctions of some kind or another, including some aimed at the Energy Sector as fighting continues to intensify in ukraine, and following up on the airline disaster. How much do European Countries look to america and say 15 years ago, no one would have guessed this moment would come in america, where we are discussing relative Energy Independence or at least continental Energy Independence. Is that making some europeans think twice ali, not 15 years ago, 6 years ago or even 5 years ago. U. S. Oil production is up 70 since 2008, and i think that the you know, europeans as people all over the world are noticing this and seeing the striking change that now the predictions are the United States will overtake russia and saudi arabia as the worlds Number One Oil producer in the next few years, and i think the europeans are clearly looking for further diversification in their energy supplies. And one of the things they are looking for is when is the United States going to start exporting Liquified Natural Gas to their mix and probably could start as early as a year and a half from now. Does that keep the lid on the idea of fracing in europe . If they know they can get this natural gas well, youre yeah, well, you point you are pointing to something that president obama said when he was in europe, its great for the europeans to be looking to the United States for shale gas, but what about at home. Indeed germany has the potential to produce as much shale gas as it imports from russia, england the British Government is is the one you know, unlike the french and the germans are more open to this and encouraging it. Poland one of the countries with the greatest potential is ukraine, but nothing is going to happen there because of these circumstances. But germanys problem is it has embarked on this highcost energy strategy, and now finds itself competing with the United States, and the German Business Community has been alarmed for a year or so about loss of competitiveness, and indeed is investing in the United States, and the german economics minister warned that germany could be facing a dramatic deindustrialization. And Cheaper Energy costs, we have seen this in the United States in our quest to eliminate the drain on the middle class. Cheaper energy costs help you keep these factories open. Lets discuss u. S. Oil production. We just spoke to somebody from the imf who warned that Higher Oil Prices could be a drain on the economy. The United States creating all of this oil. Is there some chance of the United States being able to export oil . Interestingly enough, the United States is the largest exporter of oil products, i. E. , gasoline, jet fuel and so forth, but its prohibited under regulations left over from the 1970s, to export crude oil, and our system is not balanced in the type of new oil we are producing. So kind of the hottest energy issue in washington right now is around this oil export question. The administration has said that it is listening to wants to learn more about it, sa there have been some tiptoe steps in the last few weeks towards it, and i think, you know, eventually well see this kind of policy really left over from decades ago, probably will disappear, and i think i think the significance of that, lng exports and so forth says the United States is a player in these Global Markets in a different way than before, adds a new element of influence to americas position, and at the same time is kiekd of a counter weight to exports from other countries including russia. I think it will have a psychological and strategic significance. Dan thank you so much for joining us. Thank you. If you are unemployed right now, it is still a tough job market, but there is one industry where the bosses are looking to fill a lot of positions fast. No job, then no degree. Im looking at schools that through college. Disappearing polar caps. 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