♪ welcome to "inside story." i'm ray suarez. the conventions of campaign reporting leave you shaking your heads times. no, no one state contest marking the beginning or anything of end, except in retrospect. the republican field vying for the presidential nomination is still pretty large, and inevitably reporters and commentators are drawing lines in the sand on the beach or on the shores. this candidate has to do this or else he's finished. if they guess right, and one or more candidates doesn't make the trip to south carolina, they will pat themselves on the back and say they called it. but if that same candidate underperforms and soldiers on, that commentator won't be remaining us about how wrong he or she was. the sense of urgency is on display. the snark more biting. alan fisher on the last debate. >> dr. ben carson please come out on the stage. rf bizarre opening with candidates seemingly wandering on to the stage. donald trump was back, but the front runner in new hampshire was not initially the main target of attacks that was marco rubio. a third place in iowa has given the florida senator momentum. the others tried to drag him down. >> that's what washington, d.c. does the drive by shot at the beginning with incorrect information then the 20-second memorized speech. when you are a governor of state to recommend rise a 20-second speech where you talk about how great america is, doesn't solve one problem. >> we're seeing the launch from a nuclear north korea is the direct result of the failures of the first clinton administration. the clinton lead the world in relaxing sanctions against north korea. billions of dollars flowed into north korea. and what we are seeing with north korea is foreshadowing of where we will be with iran. >> this attack brought boos in the audience. quiet. [ booing ] >> that's all of his donors and [ laughter ] >> the candidates were asked if they would bring back water boarding for people accused of terrorism. a practice president obama banned as torture. >> i would not bring it back in any sort of widespread use. >> it was used sparingly. i think where we stand is the appropriate place. >> i would bring back water boarding and a hell of a lot worse than water boarding. >> the story was all about marco rubio's momentum, how he had done well in iowa and how he could do well in new hampshire, but chris christie and others attacked him, and that could be senator. >> we thank the people of manchester new hampshire for having us for this debate. >> reporter: they now will be chasing votes, chasing support, and chasing the dream of success. alan fisher, al jazeera, at the hampshire. >> after all of this spilled ink, the volatility in the polls, is the new hampshire primary an elimination round. joining me is g.o.p. strategist and vaet ran communications director, a republican strategist and partner at monument come communications, and a republican strategist and patrick, could it be that anything? >> i think after that last debate, increased -- far increased the likelihood that it isn't going to settle anything. and there may not be three tickets out of new hampshire, there could be four or fy, depending on how marco rubio does. coming out of iowa people thought he had the establishment lane shown up, and he was a little shaky in that debate, and if that bares out in the results, then you are going to see jeb bush, perhaps john kasich if he does well, think they can solder on if they think rubio is beatable. if the trend that we saw before the debate continues, he consolidates himself into a strong second place, it's going to be more difficult for some other candidates to continue. >> is it hard for each candidate to decide for themselves what doing well means? >> that's the spin, but not the reality. financial support or money is the mother's milk for campaign. and the truth of the matter is, if you do well in new hampshire, the support is going to continue financially. and with marco rubio, cruz, and even trump, after the iowa caucuses you saw a spike in levels of financial support, not just in public support. if you do not do well you are not going to get that support, and you be as determined and spin as well as you want. you place seventh in new hampshire, your days are numbered. >> the latest polls all show a similar pattern in this case, rich, of trump out ahead, and within the margin of error, the bunch of other also rands. >> and those stop just before you get to christie. going back to something patrick said, i think there will be more than three tickets out of new hampshire, but there won't be eight tickets out of new hampshire. and the question we're trying to get at i think in order of leaving, probably carly will decide that's enough. and among the three governors, christie, jeb, and kasick in the decreasing order of likelihood. >> that would be my order too. >> can ben carson continue on? >> he is not spending all that much money. i think they cut the staff again, right? so going back to what morris said -- people say they have got all of this super pac money. not the same budget of money. you need to be able to pay people on a daily basis. it has to be what is called hard money. you get $2,700 at a time, not getting shelton aidson to write a billion dollars check. >> but can those people move, patrick from the campaign staff with the hard money flow to the pac staff -- i think of -- jeb bush had tried to pioneer this, where the campaign is tiny and the pac is huge. >> legally after the campaign starts you can't move resources as freely between a campaign and a pac. so i think at this point it's very locked in terms of what their operating structure is. >> so you can't quit the pac? >> that's -- that's a very technical question. i assume, you know, you are answering phones or you are the person who purchased cell phones, you might be able to do, but the more knowledge and strategy you bring to the table, the more difficult it is to say that all you are doing is just taking information from the campaign to the pac, or vice versa. but the existence of the super pacs and the other, i think rich is exactly right. the super pac could continue into 2019 if you don't have the resources for your actual own activities, you are not going to be able to go forward. >> which is what forced kerry early. >> when the smoke clears wednesday morning can they find a reason to stay in an eliminate round. stay with us, it's "inside story." >> this is one of the most important sites in the century. >> this linked the mafia and the church. >> why do you think you didn't get the medal of honor? >> i can't allow you not to go into that because that is your job. >> we gonna bring this city back one note at a time. >> proudest moment in my life. ♪ >> you are watching "inside story." i'm ray suarez. i guess getting voters and reporters to think of you differently, is essentially what campaigns are all about. like neighborhoods who are trained to think campaigned are either headed up or down, but then the voters do something crazy they actually crews one candidate over the other. we get real results and campaign staff get to explain to me why their candidate, no, don't look at those pesky numbers, let me tell you why they really won or the other side really lost. we'll tell you whether this will function as an elimination round. take me inside the formally smoke-filled room -- probably nobody smokes anymore, but wednesday morning there will be tough conversations being had. >> well, normally as soon as the polls close, you know thence. i worked for fred thompson, and we were in south carolina, and this is the way it worked. he said he wanted a clear understanding of whether to go on or not. and i get the midday exit polls and i went to the back of the bus, and i said senator remember when you said you wanted clear understanding, think about how you want to get out of this race, because it is done. >> in recent cycles, candidates have picked their own map, and said, well, i'm going to do well in this state, so i'm going to plant my standard there, if you have the money to soldier on, and there's no plausible route to the nomination, can't you continue running? >> you can. and hopefully somebody falters, but it rarely works out. and i think in this case new hampshire is going to surprise us. we could have a top three or a top two that looks quite different in new hampshire than iowa. and i think it's a matter of the voters rewarding candidates who have spent a lot of time in the state, who is emphasized and prioritized the state in a way that maybe john kasich who has run an exclusively new hampshire-based campaign, and ted cruz not necessarily expected to do really well in new hampshire, because he -- he focused primarily on iowa and won iowa as a result. so in many cases this could open up the field more. in terms of at the top three or four it might open things up a little bit. >> horace, we haven't mentioned that other guy, donald trump who may win tomorrow night. what does that change about the way he is seen, talked about, and his way forward? >> his margin is going to make a big difference in determines whether or not he is seen as the big winner. he has adapted a very unconventional manner and technique. his refusal generally to engage in the consulting community, many of whom might be overrating, but that's not an argument for saying i have a plumbing problem, plumbers cost too much, so i'm not going to hire one, and i think there are fundamental consequences that flow from that decision. if he can't get a margin of more than 10% he is going to be looked upon fairly significant as having underperformed, and showing signs -- >> so wait. winning just isn't winning? >> well, when you have eight candidates to pick from, a winner actually does need to show they are standing head and soldiers above everybody else. just merely being in the lead isn't as consequential. it may be the case that he can develop a following. 30% of the republican primary voters, and he can take that all the way to cleveland. or it may be the case it's only 19%, but it's just enough to hampshire. in that depends on what that is. but i will tell you mechanics can change a lot of that. >> let me just make this point, in new hampshire, independents can vote in either primary. they don't have to change parties -- all they have to do is say i want a republican or democratic ballot, so when you are trying to figure out what is going on, trying to poll them, and decide which side they are likely to vote in, and then for whom they are going to clump around for, it just makes it so complex, it makes the callous of space flight look easy. >> do you buy horace's point that donald trump could head into south carolina as the second place finisher in iowa, and the winner new hampshire, and be somehow damaged because he didn't win by enough? >> i think the sheen is a little bit off of donald trump after his performance last week, in the sense he was expected to win iowa by a fairly comfortable margin, instead he loses iowa and then goes on a rant about how ted cruz stole eye aye -- iowa and the question is when do the laws of gravity start to kick in? and it seems to have started to kick in iowa. hampshire? >> doesn't iowa become history? >> but the question is can he maintain the margin he has seen in all of these polls. he does have a pretty high base of support, but a fairly low ceiling of support. in iowa all of the people who supported him, had already decided a week out. so if that pattern in the exit polls repeats itself we're going to be looking at stating moving forward where he say that's where he cannot reach voters. >> there are still large numbers of undecided in the republican electorate, with the wade range of choices, what does a large number of undecided tell a political pro? an elimination round? it's "inside story." ♪ ♪ welcome back to "inside story." i'm ray suarez. large numbers of voters in new hampshire, have been telling pollsters they are still undecided. does that fuel wednesday's rationale for staying in the race? g.o.p. strategists are still with me. and in the meeting, horace, where we talk about what happens whether we go on to super-tuesday to south carolina, to nevada, can i point out, if i'm a candidate who still feels like i have a shot, that, look, all of these late undecided, i got a share of them. the guy who was supposed to be beating me like a drum, didn't beat me by that much, how d do -- deliberate these things. >> it needs to come down if you have the types of professional mechanisms in place to succeed. one of the things about new hampshireits is they expect the candidates to come sit down and have pie with them. and they want to see them knocking on doors. and that is the difference between exceeding your expected number, and not achieving your expected number. a campaign that says i'm going to throw the guy out the window, runs a big risk, especially in new hampshire. so the consultant needs to have a vision that shows here is how we can continue to overdeliver. >> patrick are you diluting yourself if you are one of the two, three, four, five campaigns, and you say it's just a matter of holding on until there's no more trump? >> i think you probably are, because you are going to see very quickly, if there is no more trump, you are going to see it boil down to two candidates, one of them is probably going to be ted cruz. really only ben carson is remaining out there, and he might get 3 or 4% in new hampshire. and then it is going to boil to that or a more moderate establishment-type candidate. in that could be marco rubio, but if marco rubio does don't that well tomorrow night, then it's going to be a john kasich or a jeb bush perhaps. so the question is, it really depends on where do you sit within that -- within that positioning? if you feel like -- if you feel like you have a shot to be one of those candidates then you should go on, but if there's no plausible path, you are probably not. >> that lane theory has been talked about a lot. is it no longer matter of catching fire in one state or another. having a good night out? it's about as structural has the in >> i think it is because of guys like patrick who have made the use of scientific information so precise and so valuable, that sort of throwing out -- casting out -- you know, confetti and seeing where it lands doesn't happen anymore. every piece of confetti has somebody's name and address, and whether they drink pepsi or coke. and as they both described it, i think that's exactly what is going to happen as they move forward. now, somebody like kasick could make the case even if he doesn't do as well tomorrow, that if he can hang on until march 15th which includes ohio to make the case, and make the case if i can make ohio, i can make the case that i ought to be vp. and that could make some sense. >> the whole formula that they came up with after the last race, because they didn't want to fight all the way to the convention then, is that bearing out? will is there be a shakeout early enough so that the republican nominee will have a long road forward? >> actually i think that is going to be the case that this is going to shake out, but i want to add some balance. people have to volunteer for your campaign. people have to believe that you have some valuablety. there are people who are going to write checks. there are big donors who will have big parties, but you need people to agree. if you say i want you to go to austin, texas and get us ready for the sec primaries, you have got to get people to say, that makes sense for me? >> those are volunteers doing advanced work in austin? >> oh, sure, absolutely. everybody. >> the point is when these folks start seeing the numbers, they are going to be increasingly high barriers to being able to go forward. efficient. >> yes, scepticism grows much more quickly. >> so what -- what are we then pivoting to wednesday, what do we look for in south carolina where trump has been attracting a lot of attention? >> well, he has, but there you would argue that ted cruz probably has a little bit more advantage. it is a southern conservative state, and you might see the same dynamic as iowa. but to built on horace's point, the process moving forward is going to go through a few twists and turns, and it's not just simply a matter of accumulating votes. it's a matter of accumulating del -- delegates, and you have a series of states coming that are more conservative. but in april and may, you have states that are blue states that vote and have an out-sized voice in the process, and are mostly winner take all states. so if you are a establishment candidate, you have more incentive in stay in. >> if marco rubio's strategy not 3, 2, 1 is he cooked? >> i don't know. but it's a higher hill to climb. >> [ laughter ] >> i want to thank my guests. all three are g.o.p. strategies. tomorrow we'll shift our gaze to that other primary vote in the race between bernie sanders and hillary clinton. join us for the next "inside story." i'm ray suarez. good night.