Less room in the middle for compromise. Hello. I am ray suarez. Demographers may have one set of answers. We will look at the way congressional maps are drawn. Some may have another set of answers. When we have an insightful look at the Pew Research Center, it was chockful of the kind of chewy details at that get people thinking and talking chanz who call themselves consistently or moefshth conservative has risen over the last decade. So has the percentage of democrats who would call themselves consistently or mostly liberal. In both cases, its now more than half. Is that what you see when you look around your own life . When you look at the way our politics works and doesnt, does pughs explanation reflect what you see . Our focus this time. S i believe we can sees this future together because we are not as divided as our politics suggests, not as cynical as the pundits believed. We are greater than the sum of our individual ambitions and we remain more than a collection of red states and blue states. We are and forever will be the United States of america. President obama first used that line at the Democratic National convention in 2004 and it became part of his standard stump speech in both campaigns. The rhetoric aimed to pull the country together in governoring, the rhetoric is quite different. More tax bills for millionaires or lower student loan bills for the middle class . This should be a nobrainer. If you are a big oil company, they will go to bat for you. If you are a student, good luck. The president continues to ignore laws that he signed into law, violating his oath of office and he did it again with the release of these taliban 5. And i remind the president again yesterday that every time he does this, did makes it harder to gain the trust of our members to do the big things that need to be done around here. Partisan confrontation led to a government shutdown, on major issues such as immigration, the parties are unable to bridge their differences. Pushing the center of the parties right and left has thinned the rarningz of what used to be called mod rats. Even eric cantor with a rating over 80 from the American Conservative Union was derided as too liberal by the primary challenger who beat him. A new poll by the Pew Research Center for the people in the press show on the left and right we are more divided than at any time in the last 20 years. In 1994, 10 of americans were consistently conservative or consistently liberal. Number has doubled to 21 . Whats the middle look like . It is shrinking. In 1994, 49 had mixed views. Today, its 39 . Its important to point out that its still the Largest Group of americans. They are in the mixed middle, but remember, its the partisans who are the most politically active. These numbers show our politics of getting more polarized and, as a result, nastier. 20 years ago, 17 of republicans had unfavorable views of democrats and 16 of democrats had unfavorable views of republicans. Those numbers have jumped to 43 and 39 . Do redder reds and bluer blues threaten the well beg of the country. The poll used that word, threatened more than one out of three republicans think so. More than one out of every 4 democrats do, too. Can the partsans and the politicians they support come together to solve problems . The numbers point to why this is so tough. The majority of partisans believe their side should get the better end of the deal. Its the opposite of compromise. Its called gridlock. A country thats finding it tough to make a deal. Polarization and purity, today on inside story joining us for that conversation, michael demmick, the lead author of the new pew study, Political Polarization in the republican republic. A professor at emmory university and author of the polarized public and Morris Fiorina at stanford university, author of culture war the myth of a polarized america. Michael demmok let me start with you. We heard the president say and the quote is our country is not as divided as our politics suggest. Was he right . Well, there is a truth to that, to be sure, as your leadin pointed out. The majority of americans are not caught up in this kind of ideological streaightline thinking. Thats the view or the perspective of a minority of americans, but it is a growing minority and a very vocal minority of the american public. When you layer on top of that the kind of partisan antipathy, the us versions them men 2589ty, arguably faster trajectory in the nation, it creates these log jams that become problematic. One of the graphs in your study most striking sort of set out the average republican and the average democrat and compared them to where most of the other party is. And now, sizeable, huge, poefr whelming majorities of the other partyover whelming majorities of the other par party. Are to one side of the average member of the other party . Right. Exactly. 94 of democrats are to the left of the typical republican, the median, 92 of republicans to the right of the other party. To be sure, democrats ought to be a little to the left at least of republicans and to the right and thats nowhere near the separation we see in congress where its 100 , you know, and 100 . But there is a growing trend with less overlap of values between the two parties. Has there been a sizeable increase, one that statistically is significant of the number of people who not only think they disagree with people on the other side but actually assign bad faith, bad motives, really treat them with antipathy that manner in but they are bad. Thats hard to say because getting Good Measures that go back over time on that kind of concept is a little bit trickier. But what we are seeing is this growing sense of distance between the parties, that people see the parties as farther apart or better said, the people on one side see the other party as farther away from them, you know, and so at that point, they their sense of trust and confidence that the other party is going to act in good faith that the other party isnt really so misguided that it poses a threat to the nation as we were saying in this survey question, becomes more powerful in their minds. Professor fiorina, you have taken a look at the American People and come up with a very different conclusion. How do you get to your place . I think there is actually less difference than you might think that the i think the pew report is a very fine report. Its a very good study with changes in Public Opinion over the last two decades. I think there is a lot of confusion about it that i think the title is wrong. Its not political policy pol n polarization, but party sorting in the United States and its important. What you pointed out if you think of polarization in partisan terms, it hasnt changed in 30 years, mod rats or independent are still out there. The polarization in id logical things, moderate is still the major category. If you look at how people rely on the issues, they tend to cluster up in the middle. What has hammed and alan has written about this as well, is sorting that liberals in the Democratic Party and conserbtives in the Republican Party and those graphs, i have had a lot of conversations with journalists this past week. The confusion arises because the graphs in the report dont really show extremity. They show consistency. Mike and his colleagues are very clear about this but its just been lost among many readers that the people on the consistent left are not necessarily extreme lib ramdz. They are consistent liberals and same thing on the right. The people in the center are not really the middle. They are not really sent rifts, people who are mixed, people who have inconsistent attitudes. Full allow me to give an example, the index that underlies these graphs is based upon 10 questions like do you have favor military strength or diplomacy . Do you favor . Programs for the pour or not . And most people dont fem 100 on one side or the other of those dichotomies. I might think, 65 military strength, 35 diploacy. If i answer every question like that, i am going to be in the not extreme liberal but in the consistent liberal category even though i am sort of fairly moderate on those issues. You by the same token if you take a category in the news, the socalled rightwing populace, this person might have extreme views. They might want to sort of cut off all welfare programs, deport all immigrants, cut off all racial programs and they might want to heavily tax business and that person is not a centrist but they will be in the middle of the pew graphs. I think there is a tendencito for people to look at these graphs and interpret them as left, extreme left to center to extreme right when they are actually consistent liberals consistent conservatives and people in the middle who are mixed. Alan obramowitz, with the larger number of people who identify as independent in 21st century america, was it inevitable that the republican and Democratic Party membership self identified would be more refined, more consistently committed to a certain set of party ideas . Well, what we have actually seen is that the parties have been pulling apart and the independent actually are split. The same way that democrats and iso and republicans are split. One of the things that the pew report shows very clearly is that independent democrats think very similarly to other democrats and independent republicans think very similarly to other republicans. And when you include those socalled independent leaners in with the partisans, you are left with only about 10 or less of the actual electorat who are truly independent who have no preference for a party. So in fact, we have an electorate today that is very strongly partisan and the results of elections show that same thing. I would also like to somewhat take exception to a point that Morris Fiorina made about growing consistency and extremism. I think that this increase in consistency over time is very significant politically. And, in fact, its the same thing that we see in congress. The reason democrats and republicans in congress are pulling apart is because they are voting more consistently. They get a lot of cues about how to vote. Voters, when we ask them survey questions dont. So the increase in consistency within the electorate is very significant and its precisely those consist dont democrats and consistent republicans, consistent conservatives and concyst owned liberals who intensely dislike the other party. So, this growing consistency is very closelied to this growing antipathy toward the opposing party, toward the opposing partys candidates and to some extent toward other americans who support the opposing party. The largest single fraction of americans might call themselves independent, we dont have 150 independent members of congress. You end up in one party or the other for the most part. We are going to take a short break and when we come back, we will talk more about polarization and how it affects not only how we vote, but also who we choose as friends and how we choose where to live. Its the insiinside story. Stay with us. Welcome back to inside story on al jazeera. Among the issues that saw changes in Public Opinion, driving the numbers in the pew study on Political Polarization is the acceptance ofhomo sexuality and the openness. As the battle conditions in the courts on gay marriage and civil right, and a Battle Royale shapes up, which side of the debate has the momentum. Given not only where things are today as a snapshot, but the movement in the trend, are there demographic forces pushing the numbers that bode well for one questions . Absolutely. We pointed out in culture, 10 years ago that the attitudes to homosexuality were liberalizing because of the introduction of cohorts no the electorate drove this. Gay marriage is not an issue with the younger generation, and in another 10 years we probably will not be talking about it. Imgrags is tough immigration is tougher. With the influx of immigrants into the political system, i think the momentum is on that side. The republicans are in a tough place and need to figure out a way to deal with the issue. Isnt some of that predicated on the idea that once political ideas are hardened, youll get older. I thought that wasnt true. When people took on mortgages, car payment, husbands and wives, some of their Political Sentiments changed. To some extent that is true. The argument that everything is determines when you are 18 goes too far. We do experience various forms of event. If im a mexican immigrant and republicans are badmouthing me, that sticks with me for a long time. It will take a while to make community. Alan, when you look at demographics and the changes in Political Sentiment who has the wind at their back . I think clearly on the social issues and especially on gay rights issues, that the public is trending in a liberal drcked. We have seen dramatic direction. We have seen dramatic change. Theres still, however, a big divide between democrats and republicans on the issue. Republicans have not trended very much on the issue, not as much as democrats and independence, creating a problem for the Republican Party because their base, which consists heavily of evangelicals, is on the Minority Side of this issue, increasingly on the Minority Side of this issue. On immigration the growing hispanic population and share of the electorate is of benefit to democrats. Unless and until republicans figure out a way to reach out to the growing Hispanic Group of voters, i think the party will find it difficult to win president ial elections. The problem again is a large part of the base is resistant to the idea of any sort of legalize ace or legalisation or path to citizenship for immigrants. Michael, do you see these as dynamic questions, ones that are moving and shifting or do we reach a dwell point. Much the way the country is reaching one with a patchwork of states and different marriage laws. Is there a dwell point where everyone will be where they are. To a certain extent. Some of the issues have so much momentum behind them generationally, that the balance is cleerp tipping clearly tipping and theyll move. Homosexuality is moving that way. Some level of reform on immigration is moving that way. Our country is more accepting of diversity, less threatened by the idea of people coming to our country and what risk that may pose to our society or economy. I think other issues like the role of government in the economy, the breadth of the social safety net, those are the issues that we have been debating in this nation for 200 years. They are really fundamental. Theyll shift a little with the times. Different sides will have the advantage at different moments. I dont see the debates away. Well take a short break. When we come back well talk about how People Choose to live n talk to al jazeera only on Al Jazeera America welcome back to inside story on Al Jazeera America. Im ray suarez. We are talking about Political Polarization in the United States. The new pew poll examines how polarization impacts the way we choose to live. Michael, if you leave a place like michigan or wisconsin, and look for a place to go, you could go to california or choices. Yes, we are finding that peoples preferences about neighbours and environment is linked to political thinking. It doesnt mean they choose explicitly because of the people they want to live with idea logically. Broader preferences are coordinated with politics. We asked people if you could choose, would you like to work in a bigger house. Or would you rather trade off a smaller house in a neighbourhood where you could walk to those things. 75 of the liberals say they want the walkable community, closed in neighbourhood. 75 of the consistent conservatives we have been talking about prefer the tradeoff of the larger house, even if it meant driving further. Conservatives prefer to live in rural areas and small towns. The liberrals tell us theyd like to live in cities or suburbs. There are a lot of ways in which the preferences thats not caused by the ideology, but its associated with the ideology. The numbers tell us that when you talk to consistent partisans, they prefer to live with people like themselves, in a neighbourhood made up of people like themselves. What does that tell you . I think thats a reflection of this growing polarization that we see in american politics, and people prefer to talk to other people who agree with themselves, to watch media, where theyll get the views reinforced. They go on social media and if they are politically active, theyll interact mainly there with people who agree with themselves. Its not true of everyone. Thats true mainly of people who are the post interested and politically active. The result is that the diverging views are getting reinforced and makes and harder to bring people toot. When i looked at the numbers, it occurred to me that that was a luxury, that neighbourhoods 50, 60, 70 years ago werent shaped by being able to choose who your neighbours were. When i was a kid i lived where we could afford to live, and in a burrow, a county of ethnic burrows. There were no checks of a potty registration before deciding into. I think the evidence that they are is weak. I have been using surveys for 40 years, but we are realising that what people say on surveys doesnt predict behaviour. A couple of colleagues have done a nice study in which they asked people about the neighbourhoods and people say in the surveys theyd like to live with likeminded people. When they studied moves they were dominated by other considerations, like crime rates, schools, safe Property Values and so forth. In the abstract wed like to think we would like to live with other people, there are factors move. But where people have moved has shifted the political axis in the country. Millions moved to texas, arizona, florida, north carolina. Have those places changed the people who moved in, or have the people moving in changed the politics of those places . Both. I think there are studies showing that the influx of northerners in particular changed the political complexion of the south. Also, lets remember that there are other actors out there. There are strategic politicians changing positions in order to take advantage of new possibilities, so we have to bear in mind here that theres two sides of the changes going on. Its what the parties and the candidates are doing and the voters doing. Alan, if it was all other considerations, places that are affordable in creating jobs, i guess it would attract a lot of people and maybe that would change their politics. We are not seeing people rushing into certain states in the union, are we . We are seeing different rates of growth across different parts of the country, that has more to do with factors such as immigration. Where immigrants come to live, where the Job Opportunities are. You know, those other factors are very important. Nevertheless, theres no question that we are seeing growing geographic pallarisation, we are seeing a growing divide between certain states, counties and congressional districts dominated by one party and those dominated by the other. The percentage of states and congressional districts dominated by one party is great area than it was 2030 years ago. It means that the senators and representatives and state legislators have really no incentive to worry about the voters who support the other party. They need to be concerned primarily or almost exclusively with voters in their own party and the primary election becomes a significant election its not the general, but the primary. What are the take aways for rub cans and or democrats republicans and or democrats as they sit and read the surveys, the graphs what can they conclut about the teen, the 20s and behind, michael. There is a great deal more ideological thinking. Its not a surprise. We are more educated, we have more access to information, the ability to choose from a range of information that may or may not reinforce our views. That combines into a society where the left and the right are more consistent in the way they look at things, and find less middle. Its important to remember that the bulk of the country is not there. The bulk of the country offers the mixed views. Good to talk to you all. Thanks for joining me. That brings us to the edition of inside story. Thank you for being us with. In washington, im ray suarez. This this this. Us wash plains launch strikes against Islamic State rebels in northern iraq. I am in doha with the world news from al jazeera. 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