Transcripts For ALJAZAM Consider This 20130927 : comparemela

ALJAZAM Consider This September 27, 2013

Least temporarily. The senate is expected to vote on a bill this weekend that will keep the government running until mid november. At issue, House Republicans pass add bill, that would keep the government open, but also defuncts president obamas healthcare bill. Some democrats in the senate say the bill doesnt stand a chance of passing. Those are the headlines at this hour, consider this with antonio morrow is next. Ill see you back here at 11 00 eastern, 8 00 out west, the latest news you can check out our website as aljazeera. Com. Is al quaida the strongest it has been in years . Consider this, a few years after the death of Osama Bin Laden and other key figures, has al quaida lost its leadership but gained power . And home school is becoming big business with 1. 77 million kids getting taught outside traditional classrooms. But as the industry grows, so do concerns as allegations of abuse pop up. Also, what role do celebrity play in helping International Aid relief. Golden globe nominated California Coalition tress joins us to say why she is recruited a listers to help in humanitarian cries seize. Welcome to consider this, we begin with al quaida. Just a few months ago, president obama boldly declared the terror group was on the path to defeat, but is it . As courtney explains al quaida is stealing support from u. S. Backed rebel, in the Shopping Mall massacre revealed the on going threat, from what may be a resurgent terror group. It will not include the threat of force against syria, president Bashar Al Asaads government fails to applied. The chief spokes men for the Coalition Said the opposition remains weary of any u. N. Deal, with asaad. But while the u. N. Here in new york weighs in on the war, 11 syrian rebel groups issue as statement, calling for the establishment of law in syria. It is a key defection, three of the groups were aligned with with the u. S. Backed opposition. Sal la discounted the new alliance. These groups are not part of the revolutioner, these groups do not represent the Syrian People, they represent a small minority. But it remains unclear if the statement is one of discon feint over opposition, or real pledge of allegiance to al quaida. The president is also warning that al quaida is saming a come back feeding off the anger of the poisoned arab spring. Most recently, the sectarian violence and the coupe in egypt. He pointed to 2 assassinations. They didnt assays nate one person, they also did assays nate a whole nation. Hundreds of young have gone to fight for al quaida, and fears what their return to the birthplace of the arab spring will bring. This is the al quaida linked alshabaab staged the nigh robe by mall attack, the largest attack since the u. S. Embassy bombing in 1998. Al jazeera new york. Joining me now are jack rice, a former c. I. A. Officer who covered the middle east extensively. Thank you both for being with us, it seems like so much for al quaida on the run. More than a dozen affiliates of al quaida and iraq, syria, a number of african countries, and countries pretty much automobile over the world, it doesnt include the presence in the far east. Al quaida is swaying more hold over according to the economistsve more territory right now and is recruiting more fighters than at any time in its 25 year history, do you agree with that. I think it is true. That we are seeing is an expansion of the affiliates. But what is also critical is there is no command and control. There is no control from al quaida meaning in afghanistan, and if you cant coordinate attacks it makes it much more difficult, and yet at the same time, we have to realize that when you have really truly independent organizations it is hard to take the organization as a whole down. Because you have to fight them one by one. It said tactically we may have defeated the valleyedish ship, but strategically they are winning. What do you think . Are they winning . Woman, i dont see them as winning to tell you the truth, because they have really shifted. Really the threat to the homeland and to the european mainland i think is much deminnished. These affiliates have expanded, yes, there are more of them, they are in more places, yes, but other than al quaida and the arabian peninsula, they are all focused on the countrys whether they are operating. The al quaida affiliates in syria are trying to oust Bashar Al Asaad. Alshabaab is focused on east africa. So it is a different threat, i think thats the wrong way to look at it. We need to it is an evolving threat. It is a different challenge then it was on the eave of the 9 11 attacks. Stop with syria, the chemical weapons deal is moving forward, any unified opposition to alasaad some of the strongest fighters joined al quaidaling. A spokes men for what is more and more fractured tried to put a good face on things lets hear. The coalition represents the majority of syrians. We stay we are in a state of war. We are not elected and this is the reality. If we request represent 80 , we have done a tremendous job. As he says they may have the most support among the syrian population, but some experts are estimating that now about 80 of the 100,000 or so rebel fighters are leaning moderate to hard line. How do you square these two statements in. Well, lets face it, they are trying to face this up. You cant simply say this isnt a big deal, it is a big deal. And i also think if we think about who is supporting whom, it isnt just about the civilians. There is 2 million plus people that are refugees or displaced people inside of syria. By we need to talk about the fighters, who those people are, and if they are going moderate to many extreme, how do you get the coalition to take the leadership role with those guys . And thats a real problem for them. It is beyond just semesterring. This year we awe the free army killed an al quaida links leader, a curdish fighters also killed another leader, there seems to be a lot of sort of a civil war within a civil war. What happens now . How does the west, the u. S. In particular, figure out what to do and whom to support 134. It is one of the biggest problems. When you start looking at syria in general. One simple example. The curds, the pkk, they cross not just syria, but they cross parts of northern iraq, they take out large swath of turkey, and how do you convince those groups to be a part of a broader coalition . While at the same time you are looking at other elements that may not be with with the coalition, but that doesnt necessarily make them al quaida. I think one thing they are afraid of is afraid of repeating the mistakes we have made in afghanistan, where all of a sudden, we were actually funding organizations. We were funding people, and eventually those people turned against us. This is what john mccain said about the western backed free syrian army. Overwhelming majority of the Syrian People want Bashar Al Asaad gone. And by the way, they are not extremist. And the Syrian People would reject extremists. Ken, Common Thread is that all the rebels want asaad gone. By with all this fighting what does happen if asaad goes . If the strength is really in these less moderate hands, what will happen . And i think he is going to fall fairly soon. Even this rebel infighting is not really material to the overall fight. The rebels are still advancing. Province, dara province in the south, even as this infighting is going on. What p has after he has look, syria is a very mediterranean, coastal, western looking secular society. It is not like afghanistan of the 1980s not like yemen. But so was lebanon in the 1970s and look add what has happened there. But even the Islamist Groups are very different than the taliban, or yemen, saudi islamist hiss, bake basically real radical islam takes root in the interior of the peninsula, the dessert. The cold tool areas tend to be more moderate, more cosmopolitan. Radical movements tend to be rejected or waters down very substantially. If you look at the Muslim Brotherhood in egypt. Syria is going to be syria. It is secular, it is mediterranean. It is coastal, and its going to water down these very pure tan call tendencies. A lot of reports are these groups are much better organized, much better funded and also creating problems the for the west, as to whom to give money to. Thats one of the biggest problems. If we think about this from an american perspective, the americans have been trying to figure out how to support the coalition. Yet they have been petrified some of those resources will end up in the hands of the al quaida affiliates or other extremist groups, but what happens when you deny essentially resources to the coalition, it makes the coalition seem weak. It maims them seem incompetent. By denying the resources you strengthen the groups saying look, these guys are not doing anything. Lets go back to big al quaida. And he issue as warning in Early September to anyone who would work with the west, specifically in syria. The ice and its alleys tried its best, but they failed. They started to form new awakening in syria and they will also fail, but i warn my brothers and families not to form any relationships with these parties and what happened in egypt is the perfect lesson on this. Is he just more of an inspirational figure. I see no evidence of any significant connections between the so called al quaida fighters in syria. They call themselves al quaida, but if you look at what they do, i mean i think they are using the al quaida brand, so to speak, to recruit to bring in people from chechynia, north african jihaddist, libya, elsewhere, al quaida, as we think of al quaida it is bin ladennism. It is trying to attack the new york, washington, and that trend is really on the decline. We with have to look at al quaida really as a group of local movements, all focused on the politics and the environment of the countrys they are operating. And i sigh stew wary as having no influence on what is going on in stir yeah at all. Jack, i saw you nodding in agreement . I agree, we look at what he has said, his influence is far more in egypt than it is in syria. He is originally from egypt himself when you look at the arab spring, and realize what has happened there, that influences there because i think he has that personal connection. But there really is no command or control, and that has been one of the things that the west has been effective in lopping off. That doesnt mean they are gone, just means it is not being directed from elsewhere. You are in minneapolis where there has been strong recruiting being behind the mall massacre. Theres even a video orb consider onumber of videos about the so called martyr martyrs the h to paradise. If you even knew how much fun we have over here. This is the real disneyland. Come here and join us. Now that young man apparently went on to be a suicide bomber. We know that al quaida, the leadership did years ago send fight es to africa. Do you see some of the people we have talked to actually has not gotten stronger. That it was sort of an act of desperation. We take a look at one of their last international attacks this one again, going after soft targets, if they were going after African Union troops, going after kenyan troops it would show their power, but it also shows their willingness to get out there and swing. But again, i agree with ken in this point, if we look at what they are doing generally speaking they are in east africa. They are inside of somalia. They are just touching kenya. But thats tied to civil war issues. They are not reaching beyond that, they dont seem to have that capability. Certainly not at this point. What does this mean for america . I know you have said you think the way they are functioning now, that attacking abroad is getting harder and harder. But with these kind of lone wolf attacks oral groups especially when you have people coming from the United States to train in those places do we need to be worried . As we are seeing the diplomats in the region need to be worries. I think it is substantially less threatens than it was in 2001. All right, lets hope thats the case. Really appreciate you joining us tonight. After this break, obamacare suffer as little set back with Small Businesses, and what do you think our social media professor is fielding your questions. Please join the conversation on twitter at a. J. Consider this and on our facebook and google plus pages. Where just five days to go, the president took to the stage at a Maryland Community college on thursday to defend his signature program. The president admitted that roll out hasnt been exactly perfect. Like i said, there will be glitches along the way, every law has hiccups when it is first starting off. The latest hiccup, Small Businesses with fewer than 50 employees were told thursday they will have to wait until november to enroll online for coverage. For more on the problems and the millions that will be left out after enrollment does start, im joined by megan mccardle. Who writes on economics, business, and Public Policy. And with us from ann arbor michigan, is annoyer editor at the new republic, and he is the author of sick, the untold story of Americas Health crisis. You posted an article yesterday that detailed some of the Many Technology problems that are happening with the obamacare roll out, beyond this latest delay, what are the biggest problems in. Well, i dont think we know yet. This is the big suspensibility moment. What is the news drop we get around tomorrow at 6 00. Which is normally when administrations like to announce that nothing is going well. So i think this weekend is actually when we will know what the biggest issues are. What they havent told us. It is not very promising that they have been doing things like releasing reports on the changes and specifically forbidding the journalists to talk to any outside experts that may have opinions. You know, next week people are going to start looking to enroll in these exchanges and it looks like in a lot of places that functionality wont be there yet. D. C. , where i live, has announced that you can apply online, and sometime in november, they will get back to you as to what your Subsidy Amount will be. So i think these are the big issues. Is there going to be something that will make it easy to enroll. Now getting coverage, are just going to say you know what, this is too hard, skip it. Jonathon, you and megan dont agree on all of bashar al ma care issues on this one, you have also written about the problems the internet problems that obamacare managers are struggling with. Dont freak out. But shouldnt americans with freaking out a little bit. Lets look at the other delays we have seen. Transferring medicare applications to states. More choices for Small Business employees right now they are only getting one, and of course the big one, the employer mandate. Is a little freaking out in order . They are not really critical pieces of obamacare. The employer mandate is an important piece for the money it generates and if they dont they have delayed it one year. If it needs to come online at some point, or they need to find a way to get the money. Its not like the pillar of the program. As for the i. T. Issues this is complicated. Me gangs article is very good, she identified the reasons why it is taking a long time. This is a complicated project, but they also left themselves a nice long time to get it right. Open enrollment is supposed to start october 1st. You have until december, the middle of december to sign up if you want insurance for next year starting in january. And you have all the way through late march and thats when the open enrollment window closes. Now that is a lot longer than you see with an Insurance Plan for private insurance, or for public insurance, and historically if you talk to employment employers when do people tend to sign up, well, they do it most my at the last minute. What happened with Medicare Part d, people signed up at the last minute. The pattern is for this to ramp up very slowly. So there is a accusation built into there. Yeah. If we are here in november, and still are meeting Core Functions then i think we have a problem. But it does seem like more and more things are coming pup p realtively conservative democrat came out today and he said that he would support a one year delay in the individual mandate, something that republicans want. Megan, given all the problems should the fellow democrats accept that one year delay in implementing the program, or will that be the death nail of obamacare . I think technically the right thing to co would be to delay this, until they can get a lot of the core functionality working. I think the employer mandate is pretty important, both in terms of the coverage and as noted because it is one of the big funding mechanisms. When they were doing reports it was hundreds of billions of dollars of difference. Whether you had an employer mandate or not. And simply with the i. T. I think the right thing to do is sort of policy thing to be to delay it. I dont think so. An issue going into the 2013 elections. I think it may be the right thing to do for the country. Going forward was essential in order to make the system work, but again, jonathan in your article you have to ask the freak out question, if the problems do kind of keep coming up, and delays in getting on, and megan brought this up, if young people who are essential to this program end up not signing up, could the whole system come crashing down . Again, as far asky tell, and i have been listening and i have been sort of writing for a while, there are going to be i. T. Glitches lit take a while. I really dont think we are in that situation right now. And i have no reason to believe we wont be ready to go in time to get enough young people. Now, delaying a whole year, you are talking about depriving people of Health Insurance for an entire year. You are also talking about drilling a system that is basically on the launch pad and ready to go. The Insurance Industry is geared up for this,

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