strap it was that the rally. thousands of people turned up today in car caves, ukraine's 2nd city in a show, what they say is unity against russian aggression and russian expansionism. bear in mind that car cave is only around an hour's drive from the russian border. and we own that border. of course, their own so tens of thousands of russian troops. the people here today represent various different political policies. and activist groups is quite a high percentage of would often described this nationalist group to the mission to say and it is the city of car cave. the people that live here are prepared for the worst and they will defend car give until the last in a gaze of full scale, you know, asian, we would be on the front line here. so yeah, and seeing such a support, seeing a number of people or would it be ready to for you to or are resistant anyway, it's important to do like what do i believe my own spirit is all here is any know against a united in hearing not again, it's not even right for us on the culture of those billboards. just wouldn't i don't believe pull it up for me. the good russian is a bad russian. let them come. i'm looking forward to seeing them. i know what i will be doing. i was taught to do that and i've done it in 2014 and i'll be doing that very well. let them come, but we are waiting for them for what is bad for them is good for us. yes, it interesting things being said on the stage behind me a man a few minutes ago saying that if the people here wanted peace, then they should be prepared for war and saying that if they needed ammunition, there were places where it could be found was little forget though, the situation here is hugely complex. let me punch in the same time and time again that russia has no intention of invading ukraine. and there are a lot of people in this area who do express loyalty towards russia. they see russian language and russian culture as being huge significance. one thing is for sure, certainly at this rally today, a unified voice, heads of state meeting in ethiopia for a 2 day african union. summit concerns were raised about 6 military coups on the continent in the last 18 months. the union is also under pressure to push for cease fire in the host country. ethiopia. thousands have died in the conflict and to grind our commitment to pursuing lusting and global peace in our country shall remain. steadfast, excellence is less than gentlemen. the greatest listen that ethiopia has learned or the past year is that we those the thought that if you of our african brothers and sisters, our existence or the nation would have been at great risk un secretary general antonio terrace has asked chime is president. ching ping to allow access to this and young region. a met during a sideline conference at the beijing winter olympics. he wants human rights chief michelle boshoway to investigate accusations of abuses against the week of minority . but a read out of the meeting from china's state news agency made no mention of the issue. thousands of demonstrators across brazil, a demanding justice for congolese refugee. he was beaten to death, always cover gama was killed in a beach side kiosk and rio de janeiro. and apparent dispute about unpaid wages. police released footage of him being attacked by 3 men for 13 minutes. cub economy fled war in the democratic republic of congo in 2011. a 5 year old who was trapped in a well in morocco since tuesday has died. morocco's king announced re on did not survive the 5 day ordeal. rescue was dug out to part of a hillside to be able to reach the boy. those, the headlines all have another update for you here on al jazeera right off to the bottom line. he said by ah hi, i'm steve clemens, i've got a bit of a cold, but i still have a question. is there a really bad war brewing over the ukraine? let's get to the bottom line. ah, ukraine finds itself caught in the middle of a tug of war between russia on one side and the west nato europe in the united states on the other. russia has beefed up its military presence all along its border with ukraine. and president vladimir putin insist that key of must remain firmly in the russian axis. the 2 countries have been waging low intensity war for the past 8 years, and ukrainians are split on which way to go. prudent is said that even the prospect of expansion of nato into ukraine is a major security threat, and he just won't allow that to happen. blame in the united states for the current instability. europe in the united states says there'll be huge repercussions for moscow if it does invade ukraine. so where did things go from here? can the tensions blow up into a full scale war? today we're talking with american diplomat, kurt volker, the former us ambassador to nato, and the former u. s. special representative for ukraine ambassador of oak ridge, terrific, to be with you. and i have to tell our audience that you're in ukraine right now. what are you doing in ukraine at this moment? right, well, thank you. stay for having me. it's great to be here. i'm in ukraine because today we are formally opening the american university keys. so the project i've been working on for a couple of years, it's a partnership with arizona state university, and we're going to be offering the american style education at american university degrees, fully accredited for students in ukraine. here in key. we're starting with graduate students in march, and we are welcoming undergraduate students in september and says, this is the bottom line and tell you the bottom line of this is that we have confidence in ukraine. we believe in the country. we believe in the young people. we believe in its independence and we believe it is future as a european country. and so we're making this investment today. well, let me ask you, i don't mean to be to facetious with this, but i mean one my question. you know, the timing that you're doing with his university, it sounds great. but isn't this part of the package of things that vladimir putin is saying he doesn't want to have happen? may not be the university, but nato expansion further integration into a west. his concern that right on rushes border, you have an america and western tilting nation. i. how do you sort that out? yeah, well 1st i want to rephrase the way that you discussed this in your opening. i don't see this is a ton of war between russia and the westover ukraine. i think this is either supporting an independent ukraine. would you crane? honestly, the united states and europe does, or trying to have a subordinate ukraine, one of the subordinate to moscow, which is why president putin ones. so by supporting an independent ukraine, i don't think the total war, i think it's empowering ukrainians. and that's something that latter is afraid of because empower ukrainians who control their own government and build a prosperous democracy. this part of europe will then be an example to russians wonder why they can't be a prosperous democracy and part of europe. so i think that's the issue that rushes efforts to hold ukraine backs versus a western effort to empower as to the timing. you're absolutely right. there is a chance that we're in the ukraine again, you did, so in 2014 took ukrainian territory and is point with over 100000 forces to attack . and if he does that, he can certainly make major gains and ukrainian territory. but this is the whole point though, is that in the ukraine is the country that will succeed, they'll succeed because they have a distinct, strong national identity. there are people believe in democracy and the ability to choose their government. and they see themselves overwhelmingly and historically and today, part of europe, they don't want to be bored and brushed. and so i think in the long run, ukraine will prevail. and it's up to those of us or the west to make these investments to build these connections and to help them succeed. you know, i respect and asher boker kurt, we're friends, the way you frame this is a set of choices for ukraine, but there are a lot of geo strategic observers who see this as really the 1st major g o strategic test of president biden. and america, at this moment, under his stewardship, under his leadership, and that, what biden does one way or another, we'll have a lot more repercussions beyond ukraine. what do you think biden is getting right? what do you think he's getting wrong? well, i think 1st, i agree that this is a major strategic test, but ukraine is the device. what is really trying to do is rewrite the security architecture in europe. if you remember after world war 2 and dividing your between the western sphere influence in a russian influence from 975, i think he, of course onward, it was different. it was respect for every nation sovereignty and territorial integrity, non interference, internal affairs, non threats and use of force in europe, changing borders by force, all these things that prevail for 50 years. but now i'm just trying to rewrite it. so. ringback i think 1st off we're biting is getting right, is rejecting russia efforts to rewrite those rules. the answers to russia, demands to the united states and nato were delivered in moscow. we were very clear, no, not going to read your insecurity. that way we will talk about arms control. we will talk about transparency and confidence building measures. and we'll do it on a reciprocal basis with you that we are very happy to do. but we're now assigned to russia some sphere of influence that put you in charge of other countries. so that much is right. the part that i think to be stronger from the us, there's a couple of one of them is ukraine need security assistance. now, if there's any way to prevent a rushing attack, it is for the russians to believe that the cost of that attack would be too high. i understand that we will not come to ukraine defense. they're not a member of nato, and it would put us in direct conflict with russia. but we should be dealing much more and more rapidly to get alarms to ukrainians, trainers to ukrainians advisors. maybe in the us forces line to help you cranes behind the line. if this were john mccain, we would have a full scale training program up and running already for your grade. that i think is something we should be doing. another thing that we are doing is sending some forces to eastern natal country so that they feel reassured and that's good. and then the final thing that i think that we couldn't be doing is getting the messages right. i. after i got a stand where there was a catastrophic withdrawal vine administration seem determined not to repeat any of that scenario at all. so russia does attack, we will have already told our citizens delete the problem that we were sending the signals. now telling americans to leave ukraine and not go there at a time when everything here is normal and peaceful as president and ukraine is trying to keep calm and exercise confidence. and i think us should also be trying to project competence together with ukraine in the long run. we know the grammar prevail in the long run. we already great friends, we're not going to cut and run. messaging is getting mangled at the moment. you know, kurt, you did a extraordinary interview with ryan, leave a political recently a podcast that i would highly commend our listeners to listen to what's called a former nato ambassador gets inside putin's head. but in that you reminded me of something i had forgotten about, which is that the $100.00 the anniversary of the founding of the soviet union comes at the end of this year 2022. how is that a driver do you think for how putin sees his role in history and in russian history and what he's trying to do? well, thanks for bringing that up. dave, and of course, ryan is the 2nd best interviewer in washington. the story is that the soviet union was founded on the remnants of the russian empire after the czarist collapse after one. it was lasted for a 100 years when the soviet union being founded in 1922 until today. and so 2022 will be the 100 anniversary. the founding was the union was a k g b officer in eastern germany. i think he felt betrayed by gorbachev and by the leaders of the soviet union, when the soviet union collapsed. and that the soviet union may be gone, but he, as russia leader is going to rebuild. the russian rating is and to restore a greater russia on the territory of the former soviet union. so he has to december 30 to this year to mark that hundreds anniversary. and if you look at what he's been doing over the last, i'd say 15 years or so, he has rebuild the russian military. he's. he's upgraded, renovated, the nuclear forces taken over parts of georgia, you taking over crimea and parts of the grain. he has never gotten the scores in the house. you know, with actively controlled security forces in bell rings and recently was able to take control and security forces in cars, extent as well. so this is quite a set of undertakings and i think didn't seize himself in the tradition of peter the great or catherine the great as people who built rush built a greater russia where was a powerful country respected in the world. and i think he sees himself as in bad mode and, and this is the year for him to do. i understand why, you know, i'm myself on why we might not deploy us forces or nato forces there. but we certainly have in other countries, you know, part of out of airy emissions is one of the big tasks that has kept nato alive and things beyond its borders. why wouldn't this classify as an adequate out of area emission given it, it would it be another attempt after 2014, to redraw the lines and boundaries of a sovereign nation. right, so, so many complicated things and your questionnaires. the 1st one. let's start with out a very emissions that phrase came up. when we have a war in bosnia brutal ethnic cleansing. and nato was saying, look, we're not obliged to defend anybody because they're not natal members. but then we were so called at the end of the cleansing nato deciding that it would need to stop the killing. and then put in place a peacekeeping force under a un mandate that alabama area concept got started around 2002 regularly ministerial meeting and nato and towel was our secretary of state. and i happen to be there with them. and we did the concept of alto area because it's not about who you're defending, it's about where the french are coming from. and we don't control where the address come from. they could come terence as we were thinking after $911.00. they could come from russia and the former soviet union when it was the soviet union. but nowadays were even talking about cyber attacks that come from anywhere or even possible threats from china. so the very concept is less poignant right now. but what we do face is nato members saying that we're not obliged to defend ukraine. and if we try to do so, we will be in a direct conflict with russia and that can escalate into a wider war, not only over ukraine, but over. you are generally, we don't want to be in a war with russia much find ways to try to manage this without directly defending ukraine. so that's the way she meds as more over time your to your question about the appeasement and it is this modern day version of appealing. and let's start with what hitler was doing with style was doing. and then think about what it means today. you had hitler claiming that there were germans living in other countries and those germans should have really in germany. they should be part of germany, germany later in the place where all germans committed and adequate space for all germans. he then also said that he had security concerns over some of the neighbors. and then he signed a secret deal install to divide up poland. and this was a ribbon truck tag. so from 939 to 941. and now come back to why i say 900. 41 un hitler not only consolidate power in germany. takeover, austria and take over the sedate land and then all of us will walk in and then gang with stalin to launch an invasion into poland and the central and eastern europe between the soviets and the nazis. and then turn attention to western europe. the u . s. could not get involved in world war 2 until the japanese attacked. pearl harbor in 941 december, 1941. so there is a long time when chamberlain went in unique and said okay, we'll give hitler this data land and that'll be enough. and then they take me and say, we'll start project locking in. that'll be enough. and the reality is, hitler's appetite grew with eating, and the fear is having already built a greater stronger russia and before taken territories are called reading from georgian from ukraine, including crimea, and part of adult keeping the territory under his control. now expanding his reach and putting forces just as leak into bellows, there is a hearing that okay, he is demanding more and more. and then we saw us on december 17th, last year, 2021. he presented his demand to the us and today these were demand, no nato enlargement, rowing back deployments of forces on to the territory of central and eastern european members of nato recognition as will the russians fear of insulins know, a nuclear missile presence in europe. so everything you could think that would have been a wish to the soviet union back in the day was on wishlist in december. and again, up ending european security order of over 50 years. and the concern that people have shouldn't be even entering into negotiations over this was why should or should we really come around and putting in place capacities to make it clear that the cost to russia just trying to impose that kind of orders would be too high and that's where i think making sure we knew the ladder put included the capacities to show good in that you can't just do it on his own, would be necessary to avoid any kind of modern day appeasement. i think that history is really important. understand because, you know, i think it sits in the, in the, you know, the minds of many americans and europeans watching this, looking at his history, going to repeat itself or how do you avoid it. but there's another dimension here which also plays eerily back to the past, which is in your party. i can tell for our folks, you are a known republican, but there's a split in the republican party that's, you know, very over where, where even some senators, almost sound as if they're rooting for the russian side of this. but ad minimum of the lesser side, some are saying this is not our conflict. we should not be picking a fight with russia over ukraine. ukraine doesn't matter. and so i'm interested in what the dynamics because that sounds to me like a kind of isolationism, which was also part of the 1930 equations. that's exactly right. that's exactly right. and i think you put your finger on it or voices and they're public in party that adopt that. there are also more traditional pro national security, proactive voices in the party that are speaking out of this year, both both sides. i would also say here at democratic side as well, so more and more proactive and pushing national security. ready and others are saying, you know, we have no dog in that fine, and it's over there. and we want to focus on other progress of domestic issues here at home instead. so you get it on both sides. and i do think it runs the risk of being a new type of isolationism, where the absence of the us in the world or the absence of us leadership creates a vacuum that the worst actor is exploiting. first, we recently talked to journalists, katia martin about her book about chancellor angle americal, and about previous times where miracle played such a vital role in managing putin because barack obama didn't want to. what does her absence today mean? is europe playing the role? it should? does angle of miracles departure from her role matter in the current equation is put in seeing that as an opportunity. what's your view on the kind of the western european dimension of this? yeah, this is an immensely complicated question as well. and kathy understands so well. she, a little girl, was in budapest and spend time living in the u. s. embassy before the family able to get out of the country because the russian ranches and looks after the 956 revolution. but she understand exactly that kind of failure to respond when the, when the soviets are on the move concerning western europe cancel, medical played a role. we kind of have to appreciate it, but also pick was it enough? she can europe on track united with sanctions against russia because of their earlier invasion of ukraine and occupation of crimea. and so she refused to allow you sanctions to be relaxed even though there are countries in the pushing for that . at the same time, she was tremendously committed to not confronting russia in any way. typically any kind of military pushback or security pushback on russia and always seem to engage with the girl. the fact that was not her intent. but remember, all the pressure was put on you. russia gets passed even though they're the ones doing the attacking and occupying. and everyone says you can't do more, can't you reach out to the people? and these can you implement the mens agreements even though you don't control the territory anymore? oppression of moral equivalence. even the one was in the grocer and one was a victim. with her movie, we've seen a further dynamic dsp credit party, and germany now have a lead position with the chance that you'll remember that it was chancellor schroeder, the last s p d chance or germany before medical. and when he left, where did he? he was hired by loud america who 2 chairs and nord stream consortium and is in charge of this nord stream to project and a so controversial in europe today. right. so the s p d is now leading the chancellor in germany and has a desire not to put this on the table to confront russia. that is making germany's position look weak, probably making it look even weaker than it really is. they have been taking some steps including promising that all sanctions are potentially on the table. then you have france, my call and going into an election the spring he wants to increase his profile as a negotiator has been talking to him directly. they reconvene the norman new format negotiations, ukraine, marcia, and germany. he is looking to position himself individual a uniquely to help as reelection cop prospects bars. johnson was just here in ukraine. the other day is pushing up the u. k. image as an independent actor. now after breakfast and then you have which like germany and a lot of us and you can interest with russia and would rather see if there's some kind of a combination that can be made. so you're really under the surface, reasonably divided over what to do about russia and ukraine and in a much weaker position than it was. america was chancellor. by the way, that explains a little bit some good timing. it's not just the history of the soviet union as being a 100 anniversary year. it's all over that we face a transition in germany, maybe a week or germany. we have to divide your replace the parents that we use in us after afghanistan, ryan, and the fact that the long run and ukraine will end up being a stronger country over time. so you may think now now the best time, but let me just get one last question about a minute left, pert, and that is, you've said in an interview that you thought there's a possibility that vladimir putin might invade a limited territory in the north. the south and the east. and so my question is, will, if that were to happen, will we find ourselves then accommodating to ukraine's? i think it is more likely that he would only try to take us out on the east, although we might have made from the north as well just to create multiple fronts. but i think that is more likely than a full scale invasion. trying to take the whole country or even keep, and i think i wouldn't call it to ukraine's what i'd say is we have an unoccupied, a free, the ukraine, which i would hope that the west would embrace fully if that were to happen. and then we have an occupied part in ukraine then will probably remain occupied as long as to the president of russia. each may be a long time, but i don't think that last forever. well, thank you so much, kurt volker, former us, ambassador nato and former special representative ukraine. now co founder of the american university in kiev. thanks so much for being with us today. benny in the struggle over ukraine. here's the test for president joe biden. is he going to be a realist and cut a deal? recognizing that ukraine is just the wrong cause to spill american prestige blood over? are you going to be an idealist who believes in standing up for ukraine sovereignty and its freedom of choice, and at no cost is too great to bear. but these universal standards of decency and international order. it's a really tough call. both come with great costs. there is no easy way out of this conflict. russia has the ambition and it's willing to take risks. and americans fatigued from 20 plus years of worth. and there's just little popular support in america today to defend a far away nation until bite and decides what his strategic game plan is in the world. russia in china can easily make america look weak and indecisive. and that's the bottom line, ah, on counting the cost sanctions again, the claim standoff thought, well, they really bite your energy supplies and the cross his fill, the gap at the vote. trade organization support china against the you. with beijing, with counting the cost on al jazeera, 2 boxes from the street to chicago on different with the same ambition fighting their way to a better life for themselves and their families. 6 6 in the volatile world of chicago, south side is no easy task. witness. ring site on al jazeera, a showcase of the best documentary films from across the network on al jazeera. ah, i'm to val and go home. the don't stories on al jazeera, senior members of the u. s. military have arrived in poland as part of a nato deployment. nearly 3000 more american troops being sent to the region. nato says it's in response to roches military build up on the ukrainian border. meanwhile, thousands of ukrainians have marched through ca, give to protest against to possible russian invasion. the city is 40 kilometers away from the border. ukrainian president voted residents gaz won't khaki if could be the 1st city to be invaded. charles trap the without the routing and cock, if the huge you should leave are good. some people are coming out here and protesting and.

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