Hello and welcome to the show. Im sammys. I then following the southern death of president abraham, the se, in a Helicopter Crash last month, voters in iran, now twos in his successor. The Guardian Council initially approved 6 male candidates from a pool of 80. They include one reformist and 5 conservatives, but some dropped out the nation facing political unrest, economic challenges, and tension with the west, over the nuclear program. The stakes, all high, and potential conflict between israel and 11 and further increases that significance. So what pos might the country take off to the vote . What might be the outcome for a wrong . And for the world, well discuss all of this shortly. But 1st, this report by exxons im of which inflation at record levels and widespread short digits of essential goods. After years of sanctions imposed by the you, why sydney you, you ran and search. Is it a new president . A month after that that theyll be breaking recei many said they have little hope of meaningful change. I am not going to vote because president s can do anything. They dont have the authority to do anything for people. And life is very expensive. And estimated 61000000 people are eligible to vote. And the supreme council, this calling for hi participation with discontent, growing the decline turned out in previous selection suggests pure iranians are doing so many believe corruption or like a real choice of candidates and the burden of sanctions. One of the ways of china is who we just sanctioned. Make it to you. I think youre going any one of these 2. Im pretty fine corruption ransacking activities. We are obviously having the body is pointing to the national trey, the. Ready the evaluation, are we running and car in see, the government needs rationing gabby of the resources for inc. Boards and its all these goods. They seem to subsidize raid and some not. And thats why the opportunities for the rain c, k, g and gain day pray and using watching easy train and small. I mean, a new president will also have to deal with types of the regional tensions ovaries rose war and gaza to were in yemen and strained relations with the west over its nuclear program. 6 candidates were about to then approved by the supreme Guardian Council of the 3 frontrunners. One is that a reform is and the other is to conservatives. They are se jelly, a former chief nuclear negotiator, and secretary of the Supreme National security council. And mohammed ball got to call the boss the speaker of Parliament Says 2020 who previously served this. The runs mayor and police chief must suit possess key on his back by several reformers groups, as well as former president s mohammed cut on me and how sign of honey would they be for miss president. B might be seeing our efforts to engage with best and countries, particularly the european ones. But im not certain, you know, this can be successful because the failure of the next me until the president is only the 2nd most powerful person in iran, behind the Supreme Leader. But the post carry significant authority within the executive power. Many iranians will be hoping the new president will exercise to bring change to their lives and their country axles. I much alj a 0 for inside story. When i was bringing a panel of experts to explain the significance of these elections, we have joining us from to hold on fast enough. My dion, hes a senior fellow at the center for him, at least strategic studies in washington, dc. I live via is project director on the ron at the International Crisis group and a former seen the, a Political Affairs office at the united nations. And joining us from bay. Ruth, this sammy, neither is the director of the, the vine to institute for strategic affairs. Welcome to inside story of one. Let me start with how sign in to her on then. So how representative 1st of all, all these elections, when the list of candidates have been whittled down from 80 to just 6 joe, there have been all sorts of arguments on that. So you see the bar is so low. Anyone can basically run for president , but bender back in process brings the number down that has been the case for over 4 decades. And the guardian cons so usually is test basically with the, with the padding process that brings up the main candidates or content. Theres for the president of the main numbers. I mean, the, the real, you know, name, but has some, let me jump even the president , senior figure is what bob from running this time. Why . Well, each one we, we basically dont know exactly. You see the guardian con, so as not trying to stand in how we does the candidates, and we dont exactly know why and how it is reading them. But the it, according to reports, its basically about 12 members. They bring up the person, his resume and, and basically what, what, what he does basically in, in his current position. And then they hold a vote. According to reports, largely, johnny, for instance, got 5 votes, oppose it, basically the to being him and 7 opposing. And so he was not qualified. And i think the others also are the same way. So we know its not clear cause as to why each and every a candidate is qualified or disqualified. We know that uh the, the body basically holds the votes and then each candidate is either qualified or disqualified. They make that decision. All right, sammy, neither will this d. C impact, voter turnout will to you or expectations according to what were seeing and what to the following. The main challenge is to have a high turn off, or if it turn out that is acceptable or that is in line with international and standard. But according of what we are following from the news that, that turn out that is expected to doesnt seem to need those standards. Maybe because a lot shed alpha, beta and population has a loss to a trust in the system that is in place. What will that mean, sammy, i mean, if this turns out to be another low turn out off the low turn out in march parliamentary elections of around 41 percent. And lets not forget rec, hold low to announce in the history of president ial elections in iran in the last president ial election in 2021, which is only 48. 8 percent because for the last, for 2 years. And despite the fact that today aware of that action that were taking this and sometime this election a brute and in you the, the, and you and he and all but, but this a faded, showed off a changing anything. Get that 3 things to the agenda the policy um, the fact is that at the end of the day the, the one that makes that he decision is the person that is at the head of the deputy domain, which is the. So a supreme guide that is taking fine indeed the whole decision that he lying on the book and got that are a that mean instrument to controlling the system . Talking about the head of the parent made um, lets take the question now to ali in washington dc. How do we see a clear front rama when you look at the polls . Well, theyre not always all reliable all day, some of place possess can sometimes in 1st or 2nd place, but theyre all kind of the top 3 candidates. Oh, kind of close between 20 to 25 percent they are absolutely there. So within the margin of error from one another, there was an expectation that some of the conservative candidates would drop out so that their boat doesnt break down. And if indeed, mister j e or mr. Already bought, foot withdrawn in favor of one another. Theyre on their arms of getting through the 1st round of their actions. Getting over 50 percent of the vote would increase significant bits. But these 2 individuals are old conservative rivals, and it does not appear likely that they would compromise, they didnt 11 years ago in another present for elections in 2013. That led to the opposite victory of pac matters to the president s assigned to honey. And so well have to see 2 conservative candidates dropped out today. Mister is kindly unpack yesterday is that all of these are this, but uh they were pulling pretty low. So i dont expect that to make a major difference. Im use of pacifically on in case that neither of the 2 conservative candidates, dropouts will likely go to a 2nd round run off on july 5th with one of these 2 conservative candidates. And that can create a really pull arrive situation in which the participation could change and impact increase. Thats an interesting prediction, sammy. Now that if this does go to a 2nd round, what will that mean in terms of the chances of the loan reform of versus the conservatives . What does it mean for the chances . What does it mean for the region . Do you think is the region watches this . I mean, you want to use for that each and that means or not because at the end of the day, what is at stake as the line, the new president was the bank and mind that when it comes to Foreign Policy and when it comes to the uranian behavior and the reason that this is something that is in the hands of the supreme god, a god as mentioned, but definitely the impact of for that election just to in indicate swear, eddie florida or the one that can do that. That 30 percent did change would make it to this when at ease in mind you a tense situation at that is so seen in countries slide live on, on and, and live in your all especially the, the, uh, uh the, this would have an impact on the lot as was of the population that are not in she does it a long time it does get going to a 2nd round. Do you agree with those on a say going to the 2nd round might help a reformist candidates that it will create a dynamic and this dynamic can turn or can impact the hit in dynamic and be so countries when uh, for instance, a demonstration took place in iran, lately that happened this had a huge impact on the use in this county. We seen a campaign youre off for support, and some of the Eastern Universities a supporting the case of for this student who were uh, beating to do that. So in case that, that is a sign that change is possible, i think that this was a trigger about a dynamic in those society, or i will pick up mold as lot small to talk about in terms of the region as well as global implications. But be for, we do that one and go back to how send into her on and talk a little bit about economy. Whats at stake here . How different all the economic policies of the candidates when it comes to issues like inflation, unemployment, and so on. The things that really bytes of peoples pocketbooks when its uh, the main challenge that whomever is elected uh, moving forward is towing to face their debates. Show the, the, the main concern and the main basically issue that was to pay the difference in our program. So it brought up by to buy them by the candidates will focused on you can economy, which is basically reflective of what the society is, is concerned with. The candidates know that its, its the economy that attract people and voters to them and they put towards their agenda. Economic agenda. We are a, with this inc, has split between 2 camps. Basically, when it comes to economic with the fund, you know, tackling, they can amik challenges. One that focuses on Capacity Building group in which belongs mainly to the conservative candidates, a continuation of the raise, the administration policies. And another one which was brought up by put one im at the end of may lead positions beyond who says, basically we cannot do much without a power of tracking Foreign Policy dealing with global powers specifically on but Nuclear Issue to these the impact of sanctions. These to, you know, arguments were made and i think the position kion and are for ms. Champ, lincoln, the economics to Foreign Policy has seen and basically a previous, the have been very much resonating within the society. We dont, we should them forget that president ial honey link that to and he got the boats and i think position john did the same though. The goals dont show that which will present it resonance within the society. But i think that linkage is, is critical in the minds of many radios. And if, as the id mentioned that it actually has on has these have the poles the residence. But could it be argued that the reason we sometimes see position and in 1st or 2nd place in the polls is precisely because the public hoping that his shall we say soft, the position on relations with the west might translate into an easing of sanctions and bethel rock Economic Times for radians, of course, but 11 years ago, honey made the case. He got uh, you know, a huge support by the voter turnout. And he was elected in the 1st round of the elections. But the polls dont show that a that a friend and this the elections may be if we move right, a 2nd round with possession kion against one of the conservative contenders polarization might lead to more connection in the minds of iranians between the economics and for policy. Right, and thats basically whats there for mr. Banking on . I think. All right, so weve got to keep them ally on whether this goes and how quickly goes to another round alley. Whenever we talk about the economy, of course we got to mention the big question. Can it be turned around without dealing with the issue of sanctions, which means dealing with the issue of the ron nuclear file and how that is perceived by the west. You look at, sir, interesting, because in 2021, when the present race, it came to office. I think the regimes of general protection was that with a real belief and focus on the economy of resistance, which primarily relies on their wrongs. Internal capabilities and also pivots into the east and doing more trade with russia and china. And he runs the immediate neighbors that wouldnt be able to turn the economy around. And especially because all the instruments of power were also controlled by a conservative. So expectation was that with lower fiction, there will be more efficiency and the system, all of those plans turn out to be an absolute illusion in the run and economy is now in more trouble than it has ever been before and the running people as a result of it are suffering and theres a lot of associated genomic discontents in the country in this and actions of 3 of the 2 out of the 3 main candidates mister business got on this stuff out about how admitted that sanctions really, really is an essential part of any funds for turning the economy around mr. Jenny to the also right, the candidate is still in denial and Still Believes in continuation of the same approach that in the race the administration did not bear fruit. The problem is mister position, although hes surrounded by the criminal, the friend of ryan diplomats has not put forth any practical plans on how he wants to tackle the diplomatic challenge of result in any through a stand or what the west and misapplied both has put forth a very narrow plan which is based on a series of step by step measure is that the best could provide it wrong with some degree of 4 turn economics for free. Its certainly not a long Term Solution to wrong as economic challenges. Of course mr. Volleyball is bogged down with all sorts of allegations of corruption, which would, and cast a shadow on his presidency as a call option. Ali is a big issue, isnt that . Can any of the candidates make a difference on that . Malays, you can say the other great malays, but its easing at the rate the, an economy briefly, a cynical, uh, because uh that kind of, uh, uh, you know, really real fights with corruption requires the kind of structural changes that are very unlikely in the running system especially if you have a split between the governments of and on elected institutions. If the government is in the hands of the reformers and collaborative control on it, like the restrictions, it reduces the chance of success. All right, before i go to sammy, i want to ask this question since were, were kind of it into the issue of relations with the west. When you look at what the candidates have been saying on that issue will delay lee is been talking about how iran doesnt need really relations with the us and the west. Because this can, on the other hand, well hes spoken against the idea or wrong being perpetually in the state of hostile relations with the us. How much variance do, can these candidates actually bring to the table when it comes to actually policy and Real Relationships with the us and the west . In terms of farm policy, we know that the macro strategies are set on a conceptual basis in the Supreme National security council. But the, the administrations plan is a key role in for him policy. And that is the process done tend a number of his ministers will be members after being elected and appointed a members of the Supreme National security concepts. So they can block card, they can test their, their agenda when it comes to Foreign Policy. The priorities are usually set by the administration. They basically are the ones who focus on either. So you go on, you focused on negotiations with the p 5 plus one. Right . You see focused on the move to the east and the region. So the administration has a lot to do with Foreign Policy, though, there are god players, they, they should observe that to the conceptual mechana isnt within the Supreme National security because of that they can effect eventually. So there is, its a question of degree perhaps. So i mean that the, another way of looking at this, sammy might be, does the relationship may be have as much or even more to do with who wins that of a big race going on in the world . The race for the white house . Definitely, i think that this is the, the elephant in the room and this is the next election that will impact the this one or the result of the Union Election with the drum the be the winner or at by then be the one that extra by then would be the one there that there is a great chance that things will go to the negotiation a button. And in my view that are a high chances that the, that are in agreement on done and disagree, or a, or the new create a fine with the each actually. And it was station are still taking place between the 2 box. But what if, and this is very likely today, according to pause as the drum, when adapt presidency, knowing that trump was due, i mean from its commitment from the g, scipio a and cancel the agreement. And this way in mind you squander any chances off nor monetization between the u. S. And, and youre not very police to the alley. How realistic is it the thing that they could be returned to and the wrong you could deal, even if by then wins the race to the white house again . I dont think