Historical moment or the nature of this conflict allow for this or to discuss that. Im now joined by Jeffery Roberts emeritus professor of history of the University College park. Professor roberts is always a great pleasure, personal, a pleasure to talk to you. But on top of that, im far to in the some academic exchanges between western and russian scores continue as this crisis continues to escalate. Where do you think we are in uh in this the battle of what stage . Uh the conflict tests taken. I think um my, my, my car in for you is over and were in a very dangerous not much. Yeah. The danger royce, this is the same thing. You said last time, we talked the way its actually for districts, god bless. You have multi just yes, because the closer but the ukraine comes to the fate of the most desperate potentially reckless the west is again about powerful um, extreme. His voice is uh, becoming so it is quite possible that that deal. And then we may see some extreme actions to some postop, ukraines defense. And then obviously that will be a, a dining drove escalation arising of those actions. What do you to see as potentially extreme actions from the side of the west . Because its clear that the ukraine is becoming more liberal in its open use of terrace tactics. But what about the west . Well, i mean though, the token anomaly is the introduction of western troops in some phone. That issue seems to be on the agenda again. Theres also i talk about not know slice ons. Yeah. Old kind of stuff is being be discussed at the beginning of the war and which yeah. West the latest, the refuse to contemplate of that, that time. But that back on the agenda and you know, the but they seem to be, i mean more and we talk about seriously and, and thatd be more multiple patch of sex. Now i dont, i dont think the intention of those kind of actions troops on the, based on the ground or some kind of, um, app our intervention it one bates us a lot precipitated why it was rushed to that wont be the, the intention of goals that will be the danger that they know because obviously rusher, i dont think well will allow that. Those actions you, id wonder if, if there was some truth on the ground, wherever you crying that will be attacked, but by russia and the same goes for western apples involved now uh, Something Like this was contemplated 2 years ago. But as you say, it says to have more precious power. Im all home. I mean it does have have more purchase power and long uh, people at large. And why would that be the case . Because i mean, its pretty clear that whatever west and think there is a strategy, a sort of the russian army 2 years ago. The presuppositions were defeated, the to say the least way. It certainly doesnt have in the purchasing Public Opinion in the west. The old, if the older Public Opinion died. So we have, you know, as a suggest to, you know, pop popular opinions, moving in the direction of a way from one direction of peace in simple some kind of compromise based on what the nights. So particular western countries to do, do something rack those lines just you, its ok to get more involved threatening cause its still been a no most kind of like out this the popular opposition, black dress, certainly a restraining factor. So how strong are these voices in favor . Of directing french law its, its difficult to say, i mean did that, thats beside the law of them at the moment. I mean, there are, there are accounts that there accounts, voices and, but i, you know, i think so, i think it was, we might assist a whole ton of this conflict from the point of view of the west proxy why russia has been a kind of you know persistent escalation, one escalation of the, of a. So theyve done it so often its almost become the actual so i think i, i, ill be, ill be shocked. I wont be surprised if i types of escalate. Use that. Do you take this escalation . As i calculated tactic, in other words, when people uh raise a bit and to do they actually understand, are they conscious of what theyre doing and you know, they possible reply for i, i think is it, its partly a calculated tactic. I think its also a very emotionally bice tactics because theyve taught themselves into a position. But i basically sums that are right retro it. I really believe that if they lose the ukraine refresher wins and the ukraine is going to be the end of the western world. As we know and you know, eventually theyd be to someone who might want know, it wants no, it wants that. And thats important that we dont to be done actually poly into that that, that disco. So no, no, do you train, you train . What would be a huge blow tonight . So as the west to west stage, it would be critical be cried before hundreds of prices rise. Not but no i i think the west of all just we know at night. So we are blessed in palace. I think when we might, unless the wall goes on and on, this and russia penetrates even multi p to frank rush. It comes to occupy the how the price and the Oil Continuation of yeah. And that kind of extreme situation. Yeah. That then possibly we are looking at the a much more a laptop clip pick out. Lets discuss something that you and a number of other western schoolers propose to myself, and that is a compromise to this war. In fact, you suggested in one of your recent articles that budget reports and could stop this war by negotiating a peace deal that includes ukraines membership of mater. Why do you believe that this proposal, which is the underlying premise for, for this call . So it has any complying power not only in moscow, but 1st and foremost in keys and in washington, the if the is going to be negotiated into the peace settlement, then that you got this going to be some kind of western security, a guarantee of was left of the ukraine started off to the wall, right . Thats the 1st, but its got that the 2nd part is that night. So on the west of the politically and retire, theres hardly a what find it very, very difficult. Difficult to back away from accepting you, trying into nights and members, even even under conditions dictated by russia. Thats the 2nd. And the 3rd thing um, it is strategically having ukraine in they say what type of advantages from the west and by the beautiful it would mean that you have your trade in lights. I was left of it west, a new crime, preserving like what, what, what, what constitutes some kind of office on with russia. Ok. This process would be the militarize zone dominated by say theres no nuclear weapons, all kind of restrictions. But nevertheless, youd have an independence pro western nathan member viewpoint. Actually the public folks that are real kinds of good reasons for so yeah, the west United States and i talked to it except such a deal. Now it kept mentioning, this phrase, ukraine or whats left of it. And i think thats the, you know, the, the crux of the problem and a number of russian analysts indirectly driven there because they claim that the, whats, what is now being decided on the battlefield is where the boundary between russian and west as secure as a parameter will lie, whether its formal or informal, and clearly a mosque was interested in pushing it further into ukraine. But im not sure if the wants to push it as far as, lets say, western ukraine of its very hostile and add to russian population. Now, based on history based on the current sentiments where addressing done boundary equity live organically, or if there is such a term as organic boundary between russia in the west. I think as of now the natural boundary would be um, acceptance by you cried in the west of russia, the corporation of crime and until the default before additional provinces. And that in any way, thats the only option at least the call in fost rush. Why is that this guy rush, those, those territories apart . Also part of a problem thats the choose you, the so thats that, that, that, that, thats, thats, thats the minimum. How far you go beyond that . Yeah, it depends on, on auto, on the war. Okay. Some people argue that that may be a huge goes far as hawk gulf, as far as a desa. The problem with that is yes, that may will, in a way that may will be a natural cause. He started go cultural political badly, but it will be enormously costly for russia to actually occupied, talk of down to the end, the end of the desa. Okay. But the bottom line is, i, i dont see russia expanding any further into your cry done under the need for that. You also suggested that in the criminal record, to contemplate such a concession ukraine. And its western beckers would have to give a quote, cost iron commitments to ukraines permanent demilitarization of beat within the framework of nathan membership. And the 1st of all, i am not sure of the russians believe in any degree of firmness of, uh, quote unquote, with western commitments. But on top of that, you know, demilitarized within the nature of framework, isnt it a bit like, i dont know, its a writer with wipers, but well behaving. Mice, i mean, like even if and ukraine is the militarized and like its not the ukraine, that is a problem for russia. Its beta. What, what do i do . There is a kind of press of this kind of green because it goes when um, east germany was united with west name became a spell and you have the kind of thought of nights of the agreement was the friend at that point to where it was treated rush hour somebodys unit to base restaurants because only the danger and show up at the pain was that there will be no nights or expansion into each to. I mean, it goes to have light from nature. Nature, then expand the trees. Joe, do a cause expand it is a voltage state. Suppose i have to add another country side for all precedents for the conditions on the one on, on the, on the on lights, those a night nitrogen expansion. Yeah. Now i think there is also a more recent precedent thats the support the your case, the case of to our k, a number of freshman leaders, including pointers himself said that having trick is a part of nature is not that bad for russian because it contains that culture, which is an actual competitor, original competitor for russia. And i can see that the logic being applied to your plan. But i struggled to understand why i would made so want uh, you know, drive aged, highly traumatized. Uh, very limply angry country or whatever left of it as part of it. So no direct line is the russian important point. The, you know, i think for the russian boy do, its not ukraines membership. The site doesnt match at all. I have a match out. It was, it was a nighttime military built up in the use of ukraine as a tool of course. Absolutely. So like if youre trying to watch lift, it becomes part of a night of the under different conditions. Then its not such a, its not such a frightening development, and we asked a question about, you know, why should this issue of trust . Youre looking at the trust cost both why so this is trust issues on both sides. And the only way to, to work through the issue is to after might make, make agreements and see what happens and try to make those agreements. They go through, you know, as the rest of the, like to say, uh, yeah, you know, trust, but very far, but i ask you about the slightly different aspect of it. Why would may to want, i mean, i understand native logic of having ukraine as you know, sort of send me affiliated as member of its alliance and using it as a sort of battering ram against pressure. But if they actually have to take responsibility for your cranes, you know, angry intentions for rebuilding it for even providing it with some infrastructure. Why would they need and because theyre losing all the benefits of their policy. Im assuming all the cost high. I, i think for political reasons, i mean that thats why im not 50 thought. Yeah. My eyes. Well, why do i could come forward with this suggestion that you, craig could become a member of night to under certain conditions that could be part of to the i was trying to think of a lie to police equally given the what the west, the way out politically, to back off from, for the threat of the war with russia for of abrupt proxy what that, but that was my kind kind of reasoning. So i think, yeah, yeah, it would pay them no most kind of challenges and almost from all kinds of discussion, im sure that we play the voices that wed like to assign a we shouldnt, shouldnt do this. But i think for political reasons, nights i would find it very different, very difficult to actually turn his back on you crying completely and, and, and refused to, to allow in instant inter membership. Yeah. Quote, professor over. So i hope youre right on that. But even though im, you know, to some extent its uh, you know, facing the consequences of, of your own polio. Youre lying, its no, im not making a prediction error or prophecy. Im not sure whats gonna happen if i gets, im likely. Well i, i know whats gonna happen right now because we are going to take a very short break, but we will be back in just a few moments extension the hi, im rick sanchez. And im here to plan with you whatever you do. Do not watch my new shelves seriously. Why watch something thats so different. Whitelisted opinions that he wont get anywhere else. Welcome to planes or do the have the state department c i a weapons, bankers, multi 1000000000. 00 corporations. Choose your fax for you. Go ahead. I changed and whatever you do, dont my show state main street because im probably going to make you uncomfortable. My show is called stretching time. But again, you probably dont wanna watch it because it might just change the waiting thing. The extra range of parts best. Geoffrey roberts, ameritas, professor of history University College park. Now professor rubbers before the break, we talked about the russian rationale and they just logic. Lets talk about the brain right now. And i think thats a very interesting case study because its hard to find another country besides a few grand. Thats what so eagerly assumed the role of a client states without the goal shading any developmental security guarantees for itself. And i mean, even israel, for example, and other clients they is very showed about um, you know, ensuring its own base. But the frame sort of threw himself into the western embrace completely without the, you know, asking actually from watch how do you understand the calculus of kids here . Yeah, i did. It is, this is the most difficult off at 6 most difficult for me. I mean for you to once, that is why you crime shows because it did add on what still chooses to fight to for, to fight on. It obviously is to do with the power of ukrainian nations. I mean, did you motional power as well as the political 5 you for international . Thatd be one thing. I think secondly, there was this cuz fife police in the west, in west sensible. I mean, i mean, west and power so that i persuaded themselves that i could, they could, they could win this war in some, uh, its in some form. Okay. And now having tried that, actually effectively. Last, last of all that just um they just playing on the and waiting for something, something, something, something happened something to, to, to turn up beloved. Um yeah, i could probably screw my Public Opinion if of the opinion youre trying to shift as well. Well, the opinion dice ive said is that theres a gradual shift, some of the majority of the ukrainians leaving in the the air is currently occupied. But, but by you guys who want a compromise space, i think secondly, you know, you know, the ukrainian and the political stop is normally 5. I yeah. That theyre out there. All kind of elements weve been established, or maybe on the fringes of it, who would be prepared to actually that the negotiate facing see piece it says as a basis is made the best solution for you right now im not, im just like giving a 9 to perspective, that will be in video. Decide, lets just have a personal question that have ukranian votes on the your credit is a very interesting collective psyche to me because i think its has both very large entitlement and a very large interior order to complex. You mentioned the, you know, the power of its national was meant to me is a little bit like me there who is the right. It took you, its on her own children because she didnt get something. And historically, i think this a few, or it was channeled very convenient to move on to russia. But once you clean becomes part of the west, arent you concerned that they so the of the target of its blaine will shift of what you just ripe is actually quite a typical phenomenon of small state nationalism. And i know that ukraine is not particularly small side based, as most i associate getting smaller. Why is this most tight associate to evaluate a big state and quite often . Well, you know what, you, what you described this sense of in combination of in type since we talked about and inferior article, but very, very typical of the nationalism um, oh, old all, most of us, most i so anyway that, thats not the same. Thats not unusual. But many other states, uh, sort of middle space like turkey is around even poland. Well pulling to a lesser extent that theyve been quite skilful in playing, you know, big powers against one another. And this is what i want to ask you about. Because i think leadership or the cultivation of belief is a very interesting subject because it takes time, it takes such a National Hardship to produce the kinds of leaves who understand the deep dynamic, psychological, and developmental dynamics of the populations. But also wars we enough to position the country within the original and global context to produce benefits for, for the people. Yeah. But thats, thats what happened for you. Cried was thoughtful. So for uh, you know, for the 1st 25 years of independent crime. Thats exactly the gaming ukraine like really . Yes, absolutely. Until until 2014. When you get this definitive kind of split upon a few crane oaks definitively for the west, and thats where the professor roberts, i think youre going to have some of the best conditions, post soviet flaps. They had some of the best economies. They had pretty wide industrial base. They have a, you know, boot land, they have a lot of people. Uh, they have the good graces of the west. They also have the good, have the good, the braces of russia, because russia was eager to keep them within the if not within the, within, its all been done every then its a can all make it environments and yeah, they seem to waste it all on the some, you know stuff, something that, that, that, the, them, that those, id love corruption. I know so that they also kind of hide the provisions if the political divisions been di. What that meant was to make you cry and never transitioned out of the ninetys. The kind of coyote politics of the ninetys continued all the way, all the way for the articles to go see the new crime that i never had a fiction choice. You come and fix some stability is the power of the site that you know, some old and control and some, and some directors are very unfortunate of success so concisely. Right. But going back to the point where i think that once to will, if was i was to most of it. If you have whats left of your crane becomes part of the west is up for it is already above the west, and thats the kind of judge i see the crime. He is a