Brought a lot of merchandise but guess what came with the merchandise on both sides chirps ok but there were traveling the germs were traveling so 1st of all as a short i was actually going up for School Exemption from weve had merchandise moving without anybody else sally how came from town to town to resettle and byron back and forth and horses travelling for you not from drama days anyway but the lets say its mobilization you get germs with it. But at the time. It took a long time. You know it took a long time to in fact they did. Train in Northern Europe and was now the middle east took a locked up for the people will be in fact that the day you can set up a conference and secure a town really see one of my favorite cities conference there 30000 specialists i dont know what say the. Lungs are it or something more boring say a liver liver specialist come in from all around the world so people come from its going to stand. Cincinnati they go they mingle and guess what they go back home for those later and 2 weeks later the start to spread their own to become super says super spreader thats we have many more support for that today so the good news is that now we understand the problem. And the pandemic we had was not very severe it was a small thing is here could have been a lot worse but it was not it was you know small thing and it was not the stuff mall but im saying you can get a lot worse could have been like something of the owner of smallpox or. Something similar or some other bacteria thats antibiotic resistant so we have now we live we have an awareness of it and the idea of any official theory is that every time a plane crashes the next plane ride you know would be safer to say the system learns from stakes and improves based on mistakes that is a good system so the world will be different wiser and then people now but hopefully its good for peace because people understand the moral that the enemy is not some person with weapons the enemy of the thing you dont see. The little germ. Pencil testing enemy you know you know. All these military threats are a say because the world this from place and that now people are aware of it but will they really be smarter you think because like im looking back at sars outbreak and had we paid more attention to it and gotten the vaccine back then and been so much easier to get the vaccine done for calling 1000 now it seems like we dont really learn that much from our mistakes do you really think its going to the vaccines are not the solution by the way this quarter connectivity is a solution because were still waiting for an issue of effects here so whatever whenever you discuss medical improvements. These take time take a lot of time. As our president can happen an unpredictable pace so if i say that 188 start but serious 5 years 40 years ago ok. Treatments maybe no back seat so you can have more steady improvement and treatments we may have a max of extreme tomorrows like winning a lot lotto and investment and even then it seems may prove to be short term effect effects of you know not long term effect because of as as you know you know things mutates so i think a more robust world would be one in which we do business as usual but guess what be prepared for hard times. Current prize are a lot cheaper to reduce mobility of the germs its a lot cheaper than having luck that. We spent trillions from you know lockdowns suggested she phones so have some measures. So that when you talk about be prepared for current times and that will take care of everything in terms of continuity being the danger. Ok i get that but is this like a temporary thing or should we stay in this sort of current time not forever can we ever somehow go back to the simplest werent fast travel hassle free boarders all that stuff you know you will have free mourners everything so long as people are prepared this there is an eruption of Something Like and i mean to ask Border Control to reduce connectivity because the germs dont travel by phone they will try a long zoom they travel you see on air france and the aeroflot and on carriers so you want to use that and then and let me tell you again lets Say Something out saying that senator kerry as you look at history and the. Black death the plague took place and the search and hundreds. Still have corn ties and 850. 00 and every ship talking about the psyche of the people that were prepared for it now sometimes maybe theyre lax about not using the laws or it goes with it but the people for actually 40 days potatoes before releasing them but they had a system in place for 500 years. Dont stop you cannot go and i was saying you cannot go from me Ottoman Empire into the hops bird we are going to touch whether or not there was a pandemic they had the system now im not asking to have contact all the time but to have a plan in place to inforce 3 levels check passengers. Test by sensors or contact bestsellers its a level 123 and still 000 most of the dive in till you have information and then you can act if you acted that way out of want we would have the problem. Oh it so heres the thing like in the beginning of the condemn make when it all started and we understood that it was global and he was irreversible everyone hysterically started remembering the notion of the black swan. And then it sort of got you knowing and you were saying this is really not a black swan its a white swan and then just the latest century a read of yours an International Business times are saying yeah actually it couldnt be a black swan is it is it because the pandemic itself the virus is self is not the black swan but the black swan is the handling of the aftermath there is a saying no no one has said this is a story so it will oh thats a people. Handling it. My black swan i said its not the disease but the eros the lack of logical behavior of our people. Theyre not you know i theyre not are they so let me tell you why its not a black swan a black swan to something you dont see coming something that they have movies about how could it be a black swan so they had movies about the nose in the black swan i discuss going through that and i say whoa because of the structure of the world. Expect to have maybe sure but that makes but deep are the ones that have the. And most not lets not trust medical knowledge too much because. It has improved for a lot of diseases but the diseases are smaller than most ok but whatever is happening now or not now that the disease is sort of. Going backwards but were left with economic consequences with fractured societies with minorities rebelling all over the world with with all the consequences that we have on our hands what i think you know is going to happen is a transformation of economic structures to accommodate. Potential pandemics even never happen again people do prepare for them like for example in the United States we have a migration out of new york city where you have a super spreader of i mean his subway so even if we control this one and its gone and you have to worry and goodbye even if you control this one there will be. Paranoia about what could happen next so so we have a some People Living in new york plus theres another thing there is a structural urban transformation in the way things are happening with academia and with offices that for the same reason were talking on zone on the new studio now and seems to work ok its a salute dating thing that would have happened in the physical world we are learning to do things offline and these things are taken place you know in a remote or a enough light that meant remote they think they can place remote are causing a gross of Economic Activity in some sectors so and so i think one of the transformation is a duchess and russia or country houses here are in demand people want to move there ok because you can do remote from there and once in a while go to the city as same time. Real estate is going to be depressed cities. Online shopping people learn to do Online Shopping its not as entertaining as going to the mall but you know having a house which means that malls are going to suffer big time everywhere. But also if you live in a remote place its good news for you because you may find an employer whos come to. They say for example now theres a crisis of love and all and people want to emigrate you know who stay there or try to be hired remote somewhere its much easier is all how the visa problem so it creates you know. Like people can travel without a visa holder a lot of the things like this always have been some other this transformation coming out of this coupled with some bad news for some industries. Businesses and of course to me its a bad news for for all this political. Geo political discourse because the enemy isnt just some foreign country anywhere the enemy is a german now and we all face and same for lets hope so lets hope so that lets hope that well actually learn something or really draw a lesson out of it ok it doesnt take a short break right now when were back well continue talking to the author of best selling books the black Swan Antifragile skin a game risk analyst Nassim Nicholas taleb dont go away. As the u. S. Economy was booming growing numbers of people were made homeless. You can work 40 hours in a week and still not have enough to get housing everybody believes america still is the way of opportunity for the reality of the not financially equality and the lack of Affordable Housing for a living minimum wage give many people new choice though theres been a problem with the city the law has turned to a machete told me stay away i almost called 2 sons of the border that there is no answer because yes that requires resource the most vulnerable are abandoned on the streets to become invisible cops. I know team no crowd. No shots. Actually helps me. Well. No 1st. Point should your thirst for action. And were back with author of best selling books the blacks wanting to fragile skin in the game a risk analyst Nassim Nicholas taleb nicholas anti fragility is achieved by decentralization you say propping up the capitalism local governments printing cute monopolies from forming strengthening links in a chain so that return it to fall is not a problem for the future do you see anyone in the world now going down that road i mean is anyone actually doing that definitely yes so let me explain what has happened if you see the reaction to the virus the lower the unit and the scale the more responsible its like the city of atlanta also met it masks much smarter than the state of georgia. So if you look at 1030 that far better than the Central Government so what happened at the bottom up process works fine for the spend the make because in their own the sauce or you know after the less you have the right. Downs were closing by themselves the minute there was a stretch so and those those who are paranoid enough to close early or escape will select this and the other subsequent diseases that they had that came later you know them shut down the town you cant go in to go up or you can go out you cant go back and so so my idea is the higher you go in the organization the worst so what is on top the most incompetent organization in history is a World Health Organization the most incompetent agree they could not understand masks that masks are symmetric like if i were a mask they said well theres no evidence this is cool naive evidence of them was it and i will publish some scientific papers explaining they dont send the military they use is mathematics thats 100 years old the north and their Scientific Understanding isnt science they say theres no evidence massport. Theres is there evidence they dont work theres no evidence that im going to have a car accident today should i not wear seat belts they dont understand so the idea that. Its not some of the higher up people should be more competent as bust the higher up the more incompetent c. C. Was incompetent United States the center for Disease Control same thing they had the same attitude towards masks where we were barking and january to say ok this is serious the world has a reservation or say or theres no evidence that this disease or a you know can trust meant for human to human. This is lunacy or generally 26. 00 so there is a World Health Organization lead to a lot of problems ok and problem except waited so if we didnt have it would be better off. And the so so so i like mama structures and im a localist so subsidiarity in other words if you cannot do it at the local level maybe you go up ok and for things like a military for things like the poet ok thats fine you dont at the top level to come to the policy or the village level but for things like water electricity and basic safety like. Leave it to the town some towns in italy decided to close to strangers others were open to let them compete whos going to do better you know facing the class of the realm of thats so this is leading people to understand locals so where is your smell in terms of. Regionalised economy because a lot of great minds and economy that have space spoken to different Different Countries theyre saying you know were going from global to regional economy to let me think were all insane nobody wants to go to where where you just you know your heart. And want to stream and do it whilst so you know no control over them so its somewhere in between so i think that the fight is between those who want say 70 percent or 75 percent say so because even if the chinese make something a lot cheaper and its no threat to you lets say ok then then start pharmaceutical ok thats fine or they can make has a from a sort of call that we use yes but you cannot have a control 100 percent some sort of hope they dont enter the well there is destruction then youre cut off from the source and so for vital sayings maybe well have a we want a world where you dont have the vital things are must be produced locally here within an area that is a racial. And non vital things who cares they say this glass of water and they can make it and whatever they want they can make it on the moon they want thats fine its a discussion thats fine i can live without the glass right but pharma no so and then there are some items and i think countries what i think. Will happen is countries will say ok we need to have stock on this this distance and that or make sure its produced locally and the rest will so impact on the general economy is going to be. Not big and summit because i really dont think anybody wants or so you dont really when hes like big slowdown in globalization you think you think things have a nicer not more going there was a sion and be more guarded in other words when i say like nobody is asian and the economic boost we got was that its partially or maybe totally or whatever it is definitely had a role in pulling a 1000000000 people out of poverty we didnt want a 1000000000 people out of poverty by sending them. Kids to study at harvard professor and she goes you know no thats not how it works or and theyre messing up their place no we say got them out of poverty thats for us asian ok bye bye having gross and one area lead to growth in another area and we had that so the saying is we dont want to mess it up we want to protect it but on the other hand an enemy where he has a say listen to any surprise they should say hey whats your problem they say well. The china makes. 95 percent of the vital drugs ok thats fine now through some here its not big deal nonvital drugs like if you want. Some kind of. Thats fine to make it but so what im saying is that if you have to make a list of things that the government will insist will not be localized the list will not be mostly larche. And then also oh the supply chains. Who are the dynamics handle them rather well i mean its not a big deal. What i think is happening now and that would be a big transformation is a physical movement of population like me traveling to wont be reduced and the Business Traveler will will not be there wont be you know as active as we saw in the past because they feel his life is over and were now you know understood that we could work with zoom and who wants to spend 3 hours in traffic area day. But you still have a Business Travel but for me to go to you know i dont mind doing so or georgia or school say once a year and i mean. Going to have my and my amenities and all these i love the feel of i dont want to go on once a year but but then spending more time there and stuff but traveling you know back in forests because theres a conference or something i will not have any more or to use myself by travel zoom will not be able to replace everything you still need people face to face ok yeah you got it i dont think that it was in any somehow right you can do it be as soon its actually so the. But but on the other hand there will be immediate reduction but i think academia is going to suffer the most in countries like United States where the thing is overall a much more. Like it so that is what one of my favorite russian near scientists at that sen negus gotta know maybe you even know her and she spoke to me recently and she goes that assert uncertainty is the most frightening thing for a human psyche and since this crisis has broadcast up to like a whole new level of uncertainty. She says these are the things that will help us through curiosity and empathy do you agree let me tell you what happened to kind of people the 1st kind of people say oh things are bad im gonna stay home and cry and wait for things to get better like for example. Who were drivers say ok theres no right or another friend of mine who was bored someone from a row he converted is a side to start a delivery service. He says people you know theyre buying food that they dont want to wait in line supermarket and so you know and its making twice as much money twice ok so some people are making. Lemonade out of lemons life because theyre a lemon i dont know how to translate its russian but theyve got to be a special like life because you remember you make lemonade and other people are suffering ok and the governors have been extremely. Health role for citizen who would have thought that the 1st socialist president s or United States would be the most trump. He gave people universal basic income for a few months and it took pos