Transcripts For RT Boom Bust 20240712

This is boom bust the one business show you cant afford to miss in washington coming up markets across the globe have been taking a beating this week as renewed fears of a 2nd provirus wave and dimming optimism are dampening hopes of a v. Shaped recovery plus we take a look at how gold is fairing amid these Turbulent Times in which nations have moved to boost their gold stockpile and the demand for oil has been recent months but what has been the impact on the industry we have a fact show today so lets dive right in. And we will leave this program taking a look at how Global Markets fared this week at the possibility of a 2nd wave of the corona Virus Outbreak in the u. S. Has affected Investor Sentiment there are a lot of red arrows out there so lets take you through the week starting in russia the mo x. Is in the red on its short week down 1. 75 percent the room. Fell from 14 week highs against the dollar on thursday retreating still losing more than 2 percent on the day as Oil Prices Also fell lets move to asia where the shanghai composite is just slightly down for the week closing the week nearly flat this following a huge loss on wall street on fears of a 2nd wave of coronavirus case in the u. S. As we just mentioned in hong kong the hang seng is also down for the week following similar trends over concerns of coppa 19 and the Federal Reserve announced a great will stay put at near 0 until 2022 now the index fell 2. 3 percent at one point on friday alone following a 7 session rally now the nikkei in japan is also down following similar sentiment on a resurgence of coronavirus cases the index plunged at fridays open but ended down only point 8 percent for the day lets move to india where the sensex ended down for the week the index plunged early friday sliding nearly 1200 points but managed to gain more than 200 points by fridays close led by gains in auto and in stocks including h. And m. Hero moto corp reliance. In australia is also down for the week by nearly 2 percent after 2 Straight Days of losses snapping a 6 week winning streak top losing stocks were westpac down 3. 3 percent and a b. And z. Both losing 2 percent each the all shares in south africa also down for the week the rand did recover from a 4 percent decline its worst session since 2016 but ended up point 8 percent that day now lets move over to europe were all 3 major indices are down for the week the pain european stock 600 plunged 4 percent following the feds dire outlook of the u. S. Economy saying it will contract by 6. 5 percent in 2020 now in london the footsie was up on friday just under half a percent seeing some gains after early losses on news of the british economy contracted by 20. 4 percent in april alone wiping out nearly 2 decades of growth the german dax and for. Also tried to rally on friday up in the afternoon but the dax was not able to sustain strong premarket growth in the u. S. Helped push sentiment up so the losses were quite as bad lets move across the atlantic over to brazil where the best buy is down for the week the index plunged nearly 3 percent on friday despite an increased throughout the week 80 hours brazil to index plunged 8. 7 percent while the index which gathers the most liquid shares on the brilliance brazilian stock market dropped more than 7 percent contributing to those losses heading north to mexico to be is also in the red for the week the country suffered a historic contraction for the month of april due to negative performance in the construction and manufacturing sectors as the can ruin a virus pandemic continues to weigh on the countrys economy were moving north to the u. S. All 3 major indices are down on the week on friday markets rallied after the sharpest sell off in 3 months were talking about that 7 percent plunge on thursday following the feds grim Economic Outlook some losses were recovered on friday the dow soared to more than 700. 00 points early in the day but semi flattened out by the end of the session bowing contributed to big gains up 8 percent on friday alone and finally in toronto the t s x is following a similar trends down on the week after seeing some gains on friday after stocks tumbled on thursday on fears of a resurgence of the coronavirus gold prices contributed to those friday gains as it best to look for a safe haven following the feds Economic Outlook and now moving into next week the world will continue to keep an eye on a possible 2nd wave of corona virus infections and we will of course keep you up to date and that is your Global Market walk. On the state of markets and the economy lets bring in Todd Horowitz chief strategist at bubba trading and boom bust cohost ben swann thank you both for joining us today now ben i want to talk about the markets obviously its been a volatile week of trading on wall street stocks are up friday despite leveling out made session and then coming back what do you see in there whats going on. Yeah it seems like what were seeing is a lot of investment in the companies that essentially everything kind of hinges on them being able to come back so we saw for instance going to Carnival Cruise lines did really well this week theyre up Something Like 10 percent almost 11 percent in fact American Airlines United Airlines up United Airlines is up 13. 8 percent so we are seeing some of these industries that were hit hard by shutdowns investors kind of betting on them coming back the question is how fickle are investors going to be are they going to be standing by interest trying to get a short term gain here or are they believing that everything is coming back to normal because as you talked about there brant just a minute ago the reality is there are some fears that will see kind of a 2nd wave of this corona virus but it also seems like as the days and weeks go on that may be becoming less and less likely because were learning more about the virus as well and that it may not be spreading the same way as had been thought just a few months ago and now its almost dizzying the way we watch markets go up and down especially during this time but moving forward as well are these wild swings in the market is that part of the new normal especially when we maybe have some Economic Uncertainty when we dont know whats going to happen with g. D. P. Or what the feds going to be doing it all of that. Could have been a brown one of those i think a lot of the markets have to do with again theres really a lack of liquidity in the equity markets so you get much bigger swings automatically when you dont have enough liquidity now last couple of days weve seen a little bit better volume but of course dont forget weve been up so far i mean were up about 50 percent from the bottoms so these can arise eventually get sold into theres going to be some profit taking at some point and again if we see volatility oh it will mean there are probably headed back south again and that were going to maybe test those lows and thats certainly a realistic possibility todays action was not as anything but polar she was more of a bearish kind of trade today than anything else so again but the real problem here is the lack of liquidity the lack of volume which. Really lets these markets move much bigger in a shorter period of time and must legit business and now what do you make of these i guess the hard hit Coronavirus Companies like ben just mentioned the airlines the cruise lines hotel lloyds amc theaters you know they said they were going to reopen then this possible 2nd wave came out and they just tanked on the markets what do you make of all of that i mean when youre looking at a Retail Investor are those a good place to be right now or not really. I dont think so i mean i guess if youve got extra money that youre willing to stay in for the very very long term theyre not going to hurt you but again i mean i would doubly center in the airlines because those guys go broke any time but overall i mean listen were all dependent on can we get the economy open and are going to get back to normal and some point we will so we have a very long term time horizon certainly buying into the hospitality or the entertainment space is probably a great investment or if youve got the stomach to take these swings that are going to come through these markets especially if there is a relapse or a 2nd wave of this corona now based on what youre hearing and sports there may not be because already College Football is talking about coming back now theyre in fact going to open up for work on monday so things are looking better and of course those are Great Industries that have been hit very very hard that have a great chance to pop but youve got to have a long time horizon and a very strong stomach well and like weve talked about here is i mean whether we had dont have a full blown 2nd wave at least in the near term i mean look at still you know were still a ways out from having a vaccine and making sure that this is either adequate it or not a problem so its going to be a long time before we obviously see Airlines Cruise lines and hotels go back to their full operating capacity now but i want to touch on something that you both you and bob actually just touch on the theres a concern that any optimism in the markets will be squashed if there is that 2nd round of covert infections but how much concern is there that that could happen. Well i think theres theres 2 things happening one is yes there is concern that we could see a 2nd round but lets be honest about this in terms of the response from government and certainly from medical bureaucracy around the world not just in the u. S. But around the world it has been so kind of wishy washy in terms of being given direction as to whats what is happening and what steps need to be taken and what steps actually help to prevent the virus so when we talk about a possible 2nd wave one thing we dont know already about the 1st wave did lockdowns and shutting down the economy actually prevent the spread of corona virus so far the data does not seem to indicate that it has remember in new york city 66 percent of new infections there were from people who did stay at home so you have to ask the question if lock downs of the economy and have social distancing and shutting down businesses does not actually prevent the spread a 2nd round of the virus coming out would that actually be a good idea again to shut down the economy a 2nd time around and part of what investors are leaning on is a belief its almost a blind faith that the fed will bell out Major Industries and that government will take care of the problem but they cannot do this into infinity they should know already done it as long as they have let alone trying to do this for a 2nd 3rd or even 4th round and i want to kind of move on to a little bit of a commodity sector here now as gold prices continue to soar russia is actually considering removing its 20 percent value added tax on imported gold and other pressure metals now if adopted the countrys Gold Production could double and this would give russia banks and savers more options of investing in gold rather than foreign currencies no i want to ask like it we know we hear that and we hear whats going to happen and the real question is can we expect the gold to continue to rise with all the factors that were talking about in the market with the Federal Reserve and now with with continuing to see people. Ramping up Gold Production. Certainly gold could rise and i think its really a kilo if you look at the futures market that 7 to 25 in august futures must hold i mean believe me to believe it or not gold and silver do not look great here all theyre both higher so we actually had hammered say a little bit so i guess when you look at the Bigger Picture you may have some trying to get gold because of a currency but once again with all the feds nonsense and theyre clueless about what to do in these markets theyre trying to keep the pressure a dollar yet the dollar is again today going to start to come back off of those lows and of course they really have no idea what just to let the markets trade because markets themselves will price out these assets properly but there could be some fear as a currency for people chasing goal but again we did not get what you would think is a major explosion in fact if you look from monday to today gold is trying to lower for the entire week and now ben i have a very similar question to what i just asked you how does a fear of a resurgence of coronavirus cases actually affect the price of gold see i think in this case i think if investors do buy into the idea that there may be a 2nd wave of infections and therefore a 2nd keystone kops reaction by the Federal Reserve and by officials around the world that i think that yes then gold does stand a chance to skyrocket because i believe that what most investors will say is we do not have confidence that the monetary policies that are being enacted right now will be positive for the dollar in the long term or positive even for for businesses in the economy in the long term and at that point gold really does start to become a hedge against Monetary Policy i think that will happen if it really does look like there will be a 2nd wave now bob aside from gold what are the precious Precious Metals are you keeping an eye on because not all metals are really created the same some have much greater industrial use than others and so they are affected by shutdowns very different. Certainly what are you looking at here. Why would i like that i watch silver a lot and i think thats a great opportunity again i think again this goes back you have to have a long term horizon but silver certainly under price based on the relationship the gold right now and so id look to be a buyer somewhere lower i mean are you own it and id like to be buying more as it came down and i think you know again right now im a seller of platinum i just dont see it i think its broken down a little bit here and i think thats what id be looking at from this standpoint and just to be full disclosure i do own gold as well but again i would be a trader a seller of gold as below 725 bubble horowitz and ben swan thank you both for that excellent insight thanks guys. And time now for a quick break but hang here because when we return has dipped amid a cratering demand but how will the sector rebound well break it down just on the other side of the pod as we go to break here the numbers at the close. They can come and blow our brains out at any given time we cant really do anything actually america is the only country in the world where you can kill people. War and legally get away with. All of the fire crawls stillbirth all the trouble heres the point its how low flying the k. K. K. Exists because america wants it to exist they are the biggest terrorist group to ever operate in this country and theyre dead to me theyre worse also than the people who destroyed the World Trade Centers for those girls. No no. No shots. Action. No arrests. Which your thirst for action. Welcome back boyle prices were up on friday despite fears that a 2nd wave of covert 19 could once again halt Economic Activity and with Oil Moving Higher in recent weeks some producers had begun to open the taps once again which could send prices even lower but thats just the tip of the iceberg for Energy Companies that were already dealing with Significant Oil supplies and hardly any demand even as economies reopen and this all brings into question how quickly demand for oil can recover particularly if the u. S. And other countries face the fate of longer lock downs joining us to discuss the fate of the oil industry is rick rule c. E. O. Holdings rick thank you so much for joining us always appreciate having you on the program. Fred thank you for having me on i enjoy it now has really taken a tremendous toll on the Global Economy especially oil prices but some suggest that the oil market in particular is simply simply rose too quickly in the past so if this sort of a correction which had been long overdue anyway. I think the oil it will equities have risen too quickly my suspicion in the feet oil price will have higher and higher lows with oil as an economically dependent you know substance and weve been through a 10 Year Economic recovery that was course punctuated by this virus my suspicion is that the economy itself will be a bit weaker for a longer which will weigh on Oil Prices Make no mistake over a 3 to 5 year time frame price asked to go with the replacement cost the total cost of production which is higher. Oil quote. Now rick i want to talk about oil prices and companies try to sell assets at the moment an Oil Executives dont think that demand will ever return to precrisis levels so all this makes selling assets much harder right now as so many are selling but whos really buying. I think the companies that have a reasonably low cost of capital on are able to buy assets from companies that have higher cost of capital and that are in fact distressed Sellers Companies that have rule on their Balance Sheets can take advantage of historically low Interest Rates and those companies have the ability to see the almost alternately return at least of the cost of production take if they have to remember that the oil industry went to 10 x. More merrily gen generous years before they hit the circumstance that they have this year so there is excess capacity and excess capacity in some companys Balance Sheets but not in the industry as a whole and no record i mean there has been a lot of talk that the crowbars may result in a complete collapse of the u. S. Shell oil industry now you just said here on these airwaves just moments ago you said were going to see higher highs eventually less oil return surprise or levels in the near term which one is more likely to happen here are we likely to to see oil actually get to the point where shell producers can make that money or are we going to see some bankruptcies and maybe the end of the u. S. Oil shale industry as we know it. I think the end of the us oil shale and industry as we know is probably inevitable if we end up having higher Interest Rates the shale industry is really a cost to capital 3. 00 and the truth is the need oil industry as a whole in julie. Stewart we look at the costs for 10 years there are some very efficient producers and some shale producers who will do well but i suspect well see a lot of bankruptcies in the shale business and i think that well see systemically higher costs of debt and equity in the u. S. Who are yes which will make a return to the shale who we saw 2 or 3 years ago iley unlikely i mean is there anything that can be done i mean what is it going to address in your opinion whats it going to take for a Company Whose rely on u. S. Soil shale to actually survive at this point. I think they need to be extremely efficient and they probably need to take advantage of the natural distress of some of their your by competitors the truth is that the industry the really rich from this will be much more efficient but will be also be much smaller i dont see any way out of a higher cost of capital in the oil and gas industry and i also think it will be difficult to survive the next 18 to 24 months for the weaker competitors because my own belief is that the u. S. Domestic economy is going to rebound as quickly as equity markets suggest that it may so i think the turmoil in the shale markets will continue for a while and now we saw earlier this week opec plus members you know they made their they made their agreement to continue Oil Production cuts through the end of july with the bill take a look back at it again how is that affecting number one u. S. Shale oil and the oil markets as a whole for right now. I would say that opec is important in terms of short term market psychology but the truth is that markets work cartels dont work and we feel oil markets wants to go up opec could job. But the truth is markets themselves work as we have seen fairly recently the cure for High Oil Prices was High Oil Prices the cure for low oil prices is low oil prices markets were who are tied markets are extremely vesey and when i say they were time i actually need. What opec can do it very near term is change the psychology around or oil markets but ok opec cant change either supply or demand cartels always unwind the individual producers always an incentive to cheat to cheat and so well opec could actually use in the near term only markets impact in the long term and i want to shift gears just a little bit here theres another crisis kind of affecting Oil Companies right now via Climate Change narrative has gained a lot of strength and it seems everyone in the industry has some sort of environmental responsibility plan in fact even giants like any are planning to become net 0 companies in the next few decades and will simply need a lot less oil in the future so is this finally a good time for renewables. I think it can be a good time for renewables renewals often enjoy such astonishing political subsidies they have a sudden 0 cost of capital if you enjoy a sort of 0 cost of capital need and you can sell energy at market unsubsidized competitors that works out extremely well but some forms of renewables things like solar energy in northern germany where the sun doesnt shine doesnt work without an extraordinary subsidy either that thats peter political or rich airbase i. I would also take exception in the near future with a fact that the oil business is going to be appreciably smaller we and more importantly the Energy International Energy Agency believes that people oil demand will occur sometime around 2 thirds 2035 a full just 18 years from now so my suspicion is that oil will still be a big and profitable and viable business for a substantial period of time now the truth is with its answer maam were going to need more of all forms of energy oil and gas Nuclear Alternative energy one any what were going to need more of an oil and gas are still extraordinarily efficient economic fuels they generate an awful lot about what from an awful small volume of fuel theyre very transportable and theres lots of infrastructure and its nests worldwide to make that energy useful to many people recruit the c. E. O. Sprawl they fed you so much for that expert insight. Always a pleasure thank you. And finally before you share that article twitter wants to ask you twice before its posted but according to the social media platform this is not a form of censorship they claim people are sharing articles they simply havent read and are looking to put out less false information r. T. Correspondent such a sweet has more on the new test being rolled out. The sound you hear when a twitter war is declared while the social media platform has been praised for allowing people of all walks of share their thoughts things may change twitter is testing out a new policy with some injury to users before they share an article twitter will ask the user twice in a statement twitter said to help promote informed discussion or testing a new prompt on android when you read tweet an article that you have an open on twitter we may ask if youd like to open it 1st the social media site claims people not reading the link they share has been a lingering issue according to scientists at Columbia University and microsoft a 26000 study reveal 59 percent of links posted on twitter are never clicked but just because you dont read it on twitter it doesnt mean you didnt read the article elsewhere but twitter says they just want to make sure this comes after twitter enacted what they called Fact Checking you may recall when they flagged one of president trumps tweets regarding mellon voting later adding a link on how to get the facts about mail in ballots 2 sources twitter listed in its fact check were seen and the Washington Post so some are questioning if its false information twitter is trying to prevent or an alternate point of view. And thats it for this time if it goes boom bust on demand on the brand new portable t. V. After mail on smartphones through a play and the Apple App Store by searching portable t. V. Can also go to portable dot t. V. Find out other places you can get it the next time. There was a period lets call it the unique polo you know period after the end of the cold war where the u. S. And nato countries and other people sort of wanted russia to become what they described as a normal country what they meant by normal was a country that was democratic by western standards that was capitalists that was a member of u. S. Led International Rules based order established by the u. S. I think a lot of people saw that as sort of permanent 2nd class status in a u. S. Led system and i think its pretty clear that russia in particular has been pushing back on that. Join me every thursday simon chill and ill be speaking to guest of the world of politics. Im showbusiness ill see you then. Right there. Where it could be in this house right now. Its hard. To make minimum wage you can be recruited. And sell drugs and make hundreds of dollars a day. In a dish so when a person is still thrilled to see you here. It is you dont have to know how its. Flying to save this clueless idiot like you want to fail. They cant find somewhere else because they have a criminal record. Because a criminal record studio has the money. Anyway. They. Want black people to be equal they might want one black or they want one black famous person they want one black abyss and one black. Donald trump threatens to send me to seattle diflucan authority said dont do something about the protest is part of the city. And autonomy citys mayor says using military force would be illegal will such become a nazi occupation starts when the Opposition Party flash the governments relaxed approach to the corona virus which resulted in one of the highest mortality rates in europe and the International Criminal court. Washington proposing sanctions on it launching an investigation into u. S. War crimes in afghanistan