Asked Professor John nicholls clinical professor of psychology at the university of hong kong and has been studying carnivorous it for 25 years and east a leading expert in the field. John nicholls clinical professor anthology at the university of hong kong its really great to have you with us so much to talk about now hong kong who was one of the at the centers of sars epidemic back in 2003 and you were right in the middle of it being the key members of the team which actually isolated the virus why do you think the world hasnt learned the lessons of it and we are where we are right now ok well we did learn the lessons in 2003 and we learnt the hard way because we. In terms of we werent prepared i think none of what was prepared in 2003 dealing with such a severe disease. And so so the society has learned about things like social distancing about the use of face masks and also for the preparation within hospitals having special wards which could cope with these emerging diseases which were transmissible and which had a high mortality so. We learned so lessons the hard way so thats why when the outbreak occurred and the general this here we were well prepared so it was a life ok its its on time signs again so it was hong kong was thats not the wars that stop the elective. Missions and that will just. Around the mosque and that seemed to work. Ok so youre saying the homecoming actually drew lessons from sars and is doing ok they are thinking of up the entire world because when he has sars it was a letter with a tennessee express love for whatever it is that were having right now we see both hong kong and singapore because if i was hit hard by socks in 2003 we were well prepared and so even though we put in the mechanisms we did let other parts of the well no i think the problem was a still this lack of people thought it would have their own countries if they look at hong kong and china and in singapore and indonesia so what was going on unfortunately i think they were probably prepared for dealing with the virus means their own countries and thats why i think some parts of europe and in america find a more so its a safe. Theres no accurate help but notice that actually the care and team measures themselves in hong kong are less strict than here of race and the restaurants are open. Correctly get the number of pieces and thats from current allowances low compared to the rest of the world that we see we close the borders very quickly and also so. And also we also instituted graphically that the testing so we had because we were able to develop the test very rapidly with even towards december we had to test a feral and so theres a Rapid Testing be able to have the isolation and so we have to keep the numbers well damp so most of the outbreaks which happened pos world has been in so where theres been a large concentration of people light in there are not on the cruise ships especially the cruise ships and also where theres been a large meetings. So those if you had had those areas and i dont think well be in such a situation as we are now. Dealing it would have to look. If it had only through size i mean how much it is a good thing actually help the situation today ok well i think sars was also very useful in terms like the treated methods you seen in science when we found that the patients had such the severe lung disease we were using things like steroids and other things which i bitch cause critics a few problems in the in this new outbreak it will learn that they learned what therapies woodworking and what their pieces were not working and so that was actually quite quite useful. I think were also a bit lucky because also remember how promising a pool im very compact and so you only have one Central Authority which is able to dogma and give a policy and say you dont have large states or regions which can actually institute their own policy. You know i am that. People of how come are so used to washing hands or raring rasul get over with the ink jerimoth of a after sars is that how the whole world is going to be after this and any thing if youve got youve kind of a variance in point because in hong kong offices we were you know if anybody had a flu or infection and they put on a mosque and it wasnt considered any sort of social statement it was just you know is a way of saying ive got and the on a disparity you know and we dont want to infect other people so theres no social stigma about people running mosques in public mind standing as a in some of the western countries is that the still there is a reluctance to call mosques and one thing but in Hong Kong Based there i dont say that right b. D. S. But i think they know that i put on mosque that would be some sense of helping the community and on not transmitting so and i will say the important aspects about assad is that in all the public facilities and hand sanitizers people will be cleaning wells elevates bottoms and so thats why i think automatically went into effect. Was i think other countries have been quite slow to adopt those techniques and realizing a sense the these farces spreads through direct contacts and so making sure you have a Clean Environment so these are just lessons which he learnt in 2003 and so it was not that much effort to try and put them into effect. In the end generally every so is already seemingly certain trade on the virus that fat that isnt used to science and scientists. Ok so its an interesting thing isnt even about 3 or 4 months. Now learn quite a bit about the process when it 1st started be going to actually an issue about the motor transmission or how lethal it was but theres been quiet and so theres been color reception so even now straight for much down the road down the road were actually you know its an oligarchy you know weve had the marksman growing up since Chinese New Year the end of january and so we have enough to work out what type of cells in the scripture trying to take effect what damage its us to cells and also its a transmission so you know i think within you know 2 History Month fresh weve actually done that in hong kong i was running well theyve been lots and lots of patients on this far so its been but the problem is is that they spread artist has been fascia than the amount of information its i think i think many people didnt underestimate just hot shots this march would spread from around the well were just getting latest news a theres another outbreak in channel city of carving and a patient has contracted the virus to 78 people this city has been put in a lockdown in a 2nd wave be in the way before we are even done with the 1st lady im thinking right now creating this need. Yeah so so basically hong kong went through you know you have similar to other places and theres 3 waves in the initial ones which are the people coming across the border from china and the 2nd one was when we had the local transmissions and the 3rd wave was when the government side could close supporters and they gave about 4 days notice and so lawsuit it will came back from many from europe especially because they closed and the schools and so many school kids came back and University Students and those are the ones that response of that way. And so that so by having the contravening and basically and the testing at the airport if you notice on that one in the bud so so now when people arrive at the airport theyll have a test and they remain at a. Location one of the hotels until theyre fans be free and if theyre free. To make some cantin if they positive and they go straight hospital do not pass go do not pay 200. 00 where they. Be monitored and if necessary see treatment so by that way we basically able to monitor and manage all the all these new cases very prate record. We know that the genome of the new kernel virus a very much like sars virus is there any evidence to suggest that those who survived cyrus are immune to this coalition 900 i think that that is a its that this whole question of immunity is a very challenging one and in a way say it is right is that because they are trying to process and they do have a similar genetic makeup in the main and then they genes unfortunately at this stage it doesnt look like theyll be much cross protection with saz or with some of the other seasonal chronic process because youre probably very much aware as every year there are seasonal credit process which tend to cause very mild disease and so one of the hopes is that with those actually by some texan this state i think probably not. But the this whole issue of the immunity is one which is. Evolving one could say almost day by day because initially he was thinking once you get him in the senate we found it was size is that once you got infected then youd get a not one could i mean response and so that could go softly protect you against reinfection want to wash fine and with this new cry in a box is that its a very calm case a training aint many patients who get mild disease dont develop any antibodies and then you and even some people you and theyre in screening they say they cant find the at so this brace of the problem is that youre not well infection leads to this whats called. The problem is that is it that weve got problems with the tests because many of the tests theres about 4050 companies which are producing tests to develop antibodies and just last week the National Chemist anstice in us and met with a policy center which they said unfortunately many of these tests on not all that great for us if they cross react so i think one of the problems is is we have a problem with the diagnosis of. The possum traction and also have some patients apparently dont appear to sarah can bet so it is says whole concept of immunity is a very challenging one and did some. Confusing what the message really wanted to share a brain are where you have marble control who are talking about where the role share of viruses and horus and particular. With good reason Public Discourse is focused on addressing and finally each containing the coby 1000. 00 pandemic now the focus is on devastated economies where the recession will it morph into a depression will the recovery be a u. D. Or an elf. Has changed american lives but pharmaceutical companies have a miraculous solution. Based drugs the people who are chronic pain believe that their prescription is working for them and the remedy to be said to. Price at the. Close of dependency in addiction to opiates the long term use there really isnt scientifically justified and ill study actually suggested that the long term effects may not just be the absence of benefit but actually that they may be causing long term. Oh all connected so fickle visionaries were talking about the nature of viruses encourage a virus in particular professor nicholls most of the models asked the king to thank you now and will get a series of injuries that theyre saying that we should expect a 2nd wave the 2nd wave is going to be less kerry and mild air but im really sure of that he isnt leaving stanislaw 3 or 802nd wave was the most destructive with the highest quality really we see it at the 2nd wave which happened in 990 s. I seem to be more and more city and also it was also more associated with secondary bacterial infection. We have so many what with same with this code it is that youre not getting the secondary bacterial infection i was who saw that with a more soft and the and so they this whole issue about event the immunity and if i dont eat of course we cant really compare this with influenza for a number of reasons i see with influenza. Weve all been getting. Flu or either through vaccination or natural infection every year so our bodies have actually got a nice history that you know 4050 will you know any how old you are of history of exposure to this to an in transit forest with this new coronavirus is it looks like weve got no. Previous history so theres actually says no existing immunity so it can be a challenge to build up its site would herd immunity and this would immunity has been based on you know people talk about a 60 percent based on whats called this on or. Which is how much they can transmit from person to person. He opened what was that with the chantry expose call it out is that the new estimation is that because of the source for this farce is that we may need true at shave a bad horse couldnt 80 percent of the population having the antibodies if we can get probably a 3rd immunity so that leads to even more challenges one interesting countries which hasnt done day oscillations in sweden theyve been very laid back and saying well you know so lets lets let everybody get infected enya and well just you know deal with that. And but they have also put in place a saying that well we still recognize is that the so with all of the incidental they will call the vulnerable is apt to keep those sort of more isolated and so im protected so so try to let society get on as much as possible but making sure that those high risk groups are very much. Looked off to and that you know the books if you have ways of making sure that its proper Infection Control procedures and people come visit them and they say they were in moscow so theyre theyre probably doing the right thing on that i say that probably is that a reflection of the disease but its more a reflection on they have on the Health Care System and the ability of the Health Care System to cope with these infections and that maybe number of intensive care beds the number of events laces the access which the population have to. To. Hospitals and and aspects like that so. One in one mine actually 2 years saying it every person who got caught 1000 was able to go to hospital right away and the mortality rate would drastically lower than what were seeing right now we see in hong kong anybody who gets country positive goes to hospital even those with evil even the asymptomatic and so i mean how does a couple of friends of mine you know if they tested positive and that in a hospital now what were just going the mountains on a piece in the hospital now after 20 days shes asymptomatic shes in hospital how do we know that correct a virus gets in the in a from the body completely for instance to. H. P. V. Settles in solitary emailing you know for a long period of time that can potentially cause serious troubles in the future yeah so this is what weve found with with saas is that we say how long does it exist and they say the wait is that people with it been looking at this is by looking at 2 things either fragments of the whats called the r. N. A. And so we found this with sobs is that because we dont have any good pensions around your bodies is that when patients with sod were finding fragments of the virus are innate in some of these secretions and install samples for about sometimes you know 2 months after so that we said oh you know this this farce existing for a long time but more. I think the better question should be asked is that how much infectious tarsus there because thats the thing which actually just hermans is it still replicating and the potential for it to transmitted from person to person. And so on if your studies which have been published in the past. Months in just looking at the r. N. A. Not having been opposed to the infectious virus the proper reason is because especially the projections for you have to culture in the laboratory and that takes time it especially broadsheet and most of the party is not equipped to do that so i think a you might say find they are in a system of contra time but not necessary be infectious virus so when people talk about things like all of these patients become reinfected you know it could be that the its just funny bit more are in a after the 1st test was negative so i think we always have to look at some of these reports was it just a little bit of skips. Well there is a view which says that when a very sneaks into a living cell it actually starts to build into cells d. N. A. And that alters the cell and the whole organism subsequently so if you look at it that way does it even mean that viruses in the sands are drivers of evolution. They have you know this is a many people who looked at. 70 both bacteria and parasites have been drivers of evolution. Because people looked at the great apes and some of the changes that you can see from your work and from hundreds of thousands of years ago him inside bacteria or far spears or you know its malaria or that sort civilization. Because with any night about viruses and for. A 100 years its behind me now its really go back and see how much they have. Changed and how much servitude to change evolution i think is that this is talk about you know the past has made talk of might wonder not like some bacteria but i guess the evidence for that for these crimes process is not very strong yet so weve heard there is a language of the virus in order to eavesdrop and sort of learn how to destroy. These this or that they didnt pay for a bit fish look at that. However viruses are really just a long string strand of r. N. A. You know they dont really have any any intelligence. And theyre always changing. Like you know the influenza virus is they change from year to year and you know and and this process its changing a little bit and in fact once you mutations every month. And is that its a way of i dont say Natural Selection is just a way because they is an increase in a farce his that they are always there to proofread to make this mission. Totally great so. Its a way its its just. You know what was he ought. To Say Something and i live recess to you a living or another living thing. To me then on living they just. Fragments of. Material those viruses cannot replicate unless they have another host. So if you so thats why the the preferred which was done on the bar she says if you leave this crime in virus on the surface that at 4 degree celsius it can remain intact for about 2 weeks but at 5063. 00 celsius it will become intoxicated after 30 minutes so im cells bosses. Who sort of become an expatriate naturally they dont come in since the message is always saying that what were saying that the virus is the host and if they dont have a host then they die how do you explain that it 19 virus action states and surfaces for days. So. They battle which is is that it is as you mention is that so viruses need the host to replicate so the challenge is if they if it kills off the cell. Path defects before it can. Release enough progeny. And you identify virus growth bosses being released infect other cells. So what this this and thats why this virus is. Very efficient transmission because the studies which are done in all of our show that you can actually replicate quite a lot without killing off the cell so other all the time this is it has so if it is many hundreds and thousands of copies the wrong way the obvious self so thats way it can actually replicate and then spread. To it try the process of the with the misprision be