Transcripts For RT Boom Bust 20240713 : comparemela.com

RT Boom Bust July 13, 2024

And markets are back in the red as the number of cases of the coronavirus eclipsed 200000 this is the one business show you cant afford to miss in washington coming up markets are back in freefall despite proposed stimulus measures so where do we go from here we bring you expert analysis and the outlook for stocks moving forward and drop in travel the Aviation Industry has been slammed and now some manufacturers are asking for a bailout well break down the harsh beating the sector has taken we have a back pack show today so lets go dive right in. The u. S. Markets have taken a nosedive again wednesday as the Circuit Breaker was again triggered in the afternoon causing a 15 minute halt in trading on wednesday alone pointed to its lowest level in 18 years and theres a lot to get to here theres so much news so lets go ahead and bring in 2 bucks cohost christine who joins us from Los Angeles Kristie to break down this wild day on wall street. Certainly its like a rinse and repeat of earlier stimulus measures the bounce was short lived at the sell off continues wednesday with fears of deflation now suddenly and now this is a 2nd dead bat bounce that weve seen as Monetary Policy fail to reassure investors of a recovery the as m p and down are off by more than 6 percent amid an unprecedented volatility with the s. And p. Triggering another 15 minute halt at 1 pm the indexes have swung more than 4 percent in either direction for 7 consecutive sessions now through tuesdays close topping the previous record set in 1929 now this volatility is destructive towards the integrity and confidence of the market and the dow is now trading below the levels of one President Trump took office in 2017 corporates are now is chilling clear signs of stress as Companies Like fed ex General Mills and airline slash profit outlook for 2020 secretary menuhin warned that Unemployment Rate could hit a depression era of 20 percent in the absence of Government Intervention the sell off in equities is broad based indiscriminate of traditional safety sectors however there are a few bright spots on the heat map today walmart c. V. S. And walgreens are up citing bulk buying of Consumer Staples and pharmacy products and netflix was slightly up this morning before giving up gains as a quarantine has forced Many Americans to stay at home with nothing to do but stream content or entertainment as a panic sells from algos accelerated the slides were seeing tremendous dislocations in the market that dont really make sense the old mantra touted for the last 10 years of buy the dip is broken as every pop is sold off every bounce cant be sustained as the chart continues to make higher lows indicative of a bear market now that prices plunged again down over 24 percent hitting an 18 year low as the lock down to counter the pandemic resulted in an even greater demand shock than previously expected saudi arabia is continue to supply broad broad record high oil is of true 12300000. 00 Barrels Per Day over the upcoming months despite the slump in demand. Now as saudi and russia contain a battle for market share Goldman Sachs is forecasting a full to as low as 20. 00 in the 2nd quarter there doesnt seem to be anywhere to hide in this market accepting cash gold continues to be under pressure down over 2 percent as battered investor took to unwind damage positions and reduce leverage bit quine on the other hand looks to be doing exactly what it was made to do as it is unscathed by the volatility this week holding its support level above 5000. 00 proving itself to be the perfect asset in a financial crisis the trumpet ministration is now discussing a plan of as much as 1. 2 trillion dollars in spending including direct payments of a 1000. 00 or more to americans within 2 weeks in order to blunt some of the Economic Impacts but the Market Reaction so far continues to say that this is not enough you know kristie i do have to ask i think this is the real question that were all looking at right now we obviously dont know how long the coronavirus pandemic will continue but the real question is how long will this economic turmoil continue because it seems to me that its going to be well beyond what happens with the coronavirus. It is because if you look at the demand this kind of theres a huge demand shock right now in the oil sector of the flights with an industrial component in general and one them in the u. S. Being 70 Percent Service sector this is a cute blow to the economy with a very long tail so even if the say the pandemic is controlled by july and august of this year as expected then there still going to be a long tail because we will see unemployment drop productivity drop and that that activity is not going to pick up in a v. Shape correction as many economists have predicted boom bust cohost christiane thank you so much for joining us well talk to you again very soon about exactly this. Thank you. As christi just mentioned the possibility of governmental stimulus isnt doing what it needed to prop markets as they continue to crater so lets get some more expert analysis as we are joined by tobin smith field trip for the research so been great to have you. On the show i really appreciate your time today how much of this crash if thats really what you want to call it has to do with the coronavirus pandemic we know oil is hurting we know airlines are hurting and and when its bad its right across the board these days so what do you make of all of this well i mean i 1st got to get the context right i think in the context is pandemic is one thats a health shock the 2nd is the debt market shock because now we have to figure out how long is not going to last but remember we borrowed 30 trillion dollars in the government and in the private sector with free money and so now the bubble is bursting because the 3rd part of the context to get it right is the government and frankly i dont care the love or hate President Trump but he has completely blown this and by by essentially getting people to feel everythings ok over the ok and then just dropping the bomb now we have real fear and fear is just just contagious as coronavirus well and it is interesting because i mean when you look at this you hope everybody gets on the right track and in like you said i mean maybe he blew it by a by saying that it wasnt as big of a deal as i guess he thinks it is now so itll be interesting to see how this whole thing plays out because theres still only saying well itll be a 2 week quarantine were going to get a hold of this do we know that we have absolutely no idea. Right but again you know your previous guest talked about we have a 500000000000. 00 payroll every quarter for the Services Industry so the idea that we can set a couple of 1000. 00 checks out to people is insane and i just telling your audience that they have to understand that the biggest financial bubble we always saw it was 20082009 today we have 4 times as much debt so that has to get repriced in and this is a financial disaster as a Health Disaster as an Economic Disaster is like we got 3 neutron bombs dropped on us 1st obviously we got to corona virus and the pandemic then we got the oil pandemic the oil neutron bomb a price war during a pandemic are you kidding me and then the 3rd is the government sitting around doing sort of half measures when when weve essentially had a virtual economic attack and were coming with a you know. A water gun we need a bazooka and i know its interesting that you mention those checks going out to americans because it seems when you talk about sending a 1000. 00 check or however much youre going to send per you know bracket depending on what you get paid of course but when you talk about setting those checks out generally stimulus checks to stimulate the economy in a way of they can go to local businesses you can pay for it what it doesnt help with is when youre talking about paying your credit card bill paying just in utility bill and hang your rent and thats what these checks are going to be used for especially for those who are out of work those who are still in a job are actually doing well because they cant go out they cant spend the money they have so if you cant spend the money how is the stimulus check going to work well right i mean its essentially reverse logic right but again thats sort of endemic of of the approach theyre taking here you got to get the metaphor right and theyre they look at this as if its you know if the root literally is what trump said. You know by spring its going to magically disappear and blah blah blah blah well thats not literally physically possible at this point the you know the cow has left the barn on this so now we have to go through a global repricing i was very involved in the 2008 financial crisis and work with senators other folks and you know the one thing that i like most people missed the move by the fed on sunday had nothing to do with the stock market that was about the banks the Bank Plumbing was stuck and if they had to mark down some of the assets they had on monday it would have been just like 2008 they would have been insolvent so people who were more sophisticated sophisticated i cant say he said about you know the financial world knew that that was all about the banks then when trump came in we came to a 2nd day and we sort of said mumbly probably you know probably go to maybe july or august i hear people say well you know a lot of people particularly people who listen to right when you know media they really thought it was going to end magically disappear in april so then that through another fear a bomb and thats another tape and then oil under 30 and now it 20 these tape bombs have equal reactions from various sides of the world for instance today the 20 year in the 10 year Treasury Bill moved ive never seen a like that it moved from a half a percent to 1. 3 percent and back to you know 65 basis points all in one day that wouldnt happen in a year or 2 years but whats happening is that all this stuff is connected if im selling off my stocks i dont need all those you know 10 year t. Bills as collateral for my borrowing so is ideal leverage all of a sudden that goes up but when that goes up then i sell all my stuff down and somebody elses hedge that and blah blah blah so we have a downward vicious circle this is a negative feedback loop and it doesnt stop with. A b. B. Gun it stops with the fed coming in and buying a trillion dollars for the. Boom it ends it comes in with the essentially credit lines you know a credit card to fake credit card number real credit cards that go would that you can spend to pay rent exotic cars to your point if im just taking a 1000 bucks and im giving it to my landlord i dont doing anything about stimulating thats just simply about you know keeping the status quo but when a Service Economy we have way too many people that are going to be out of work as you said its about keeping your head above water its not about stimulating any writing and who are quick and it seems like the despite all of all of this fed intervention which you just talked about you know its not doing anything at that fact every time they do something it gets worse then we get that little bit about and then what happens it goes even further down so well know that like you said that bubble is ready to pop i mean do we its weekly we got about 30 seconds here do we have a recession i mean is it coming now. Were already in recession this is going to be about a negative 3 to 4 percent q 2 negative 2 percent q 3 we have to fight against it i just cant emphasize this enough is that we dont move to depression because all the moving parts to depression have lined up and if we make one more mistake one more policy mistake like you know the fed coming on sunday all that tells people is oh my god what are they told that i dont know sell and now we have computerized trading thats almost 80 percent of the market we never had that before and so they are going to keep saying sell until we see big movement not just a little blip jump were doing here we need a big bomb we need it now we need to deliver it we have to have a neutron bomb that offsets the neutron bombs have been you know exploded into our system i dont want to be you know scary for you but ladies and gentlemen thats thats the truth and if you dont think were going to have an s. And p. 1600 maybe 200 by the end of this youre youre smoking the same dope the president is absolute toben smith he mentioned the d. Word depression c. E. O. Of Transformative Research well have you back i love your take thank you so much for your time. And the World Health Organization had the task of announcing a major milestone in the spread of the corona virus more than 200000 cases of 9000 have been reported. And more than 8000 people have lost their lives. And more than 80 percent of all cases and from 2 regions the wiston pacifist and europe we know there arent many countries no face scully mix and feeley overwhelmed italy remains the country most affected by the virus outside of china seemingly adding thousands of cases by the day the death toll in italy alone will soon surpassed 3000 iran is still fighting to control the spread with more than 17000 cases spain and germany have also had an increased number of cases in recent days adding nearly 2000 each and here in the u. S. Officials have announced cases in each of the 50 states earlier in the news with rick sanchez spoke with chichen a Public Health specialist at Yale University about the concerns over the spread of the virus. We already passed the stage of accounting and now we can only do mitigation that means its already a larger Scale Community transmission so eventually like according to estimates from us from u. K. Like all people eventually we have this. Question isa holosuite where we are making a huge difference. Now for a quick break but hang in here because when we return amid the drop in travel the Aviation Industry has been slower but now some manufacturers are asking for a bailout will break down the harsh beating the sector is take it as we go to break those bloody numbers at the quote. Probably time because. As weve seen during Bretton Woods or through the plaza toward of the 1980 s. Theres going to have to be global coordinated sit down to rearrange the Global Market rearrange the global currency grid and the dollar is going to have to match against it because that runaway balli with the dollar is whats causing this deflation. Part too. So she and i as a nation from which to us an investor but at the. Grocery store shes a mom for free youve got loads of the trip improved for beer. On my p. S. P. I didnt do enough to try to accomplish my project for the. Purpose. It was because of global was going to have to close to this needs of the day you know why would you most of us have looks like a bunch of us moving in the sport its not something youre fighting. For enough. On the left coast youre fortunate enough about 4 to 6 months because of the sound. And as we have covered in recent days the movement of people across borders is continuing to be restricted wednesday morning the u. S. And canada notes the closure of the worlds longest border to nonessential travel the president as you all were also announced today that by Mutual Consent of the northern border to canada it will be close to non essential travel this does not include essential travel or the transit of goods also late tuesday german chancellor Angela Merkel and now its an agreement among e. U. Leaders to ban entry into the bloc the. We discuss various topics today the 1st was that we all agreed with the proposal of the commission of. 5 countries that their members of the European Union are. You know or Great Britain we should impose restrictions which means basically a one in 3 except for very very limited exceptions these must be implemented by the Member States to apply for 30 days r. T. Correspondent saya tavenner has been following Border Closures and restrictions and filed this report. Countries around the world are taking drastic measures and an attempt to curb the spread of the covered 19 pandemic with more travel restrictions being announced. And travelers across the world us grambling to find flights home as governments are urging their citizens to return and until tuesday much of the European Union was initially resistant to curbing travel and at times blaming. One another for its spread but the European Union has now taken of 1st major coordinated response to the virus the latest to join the list of Border Closure u. S. And canada president to go to twitter this morning to announced a travel restrictions president also made it clear that although the decision would not affect the flow of trade between the 2 countries that the u. S. Would be by Mutual Consent temporarily closing the northern border with canada to nonessential traffic part of the discussions involve what types of vehicles and vigils would still be allowed to travel between the 2 countries and for what purpose as restrictions will likely allow for significant flexibility since cannon are relies on the u. S. For 75 percent of its exports and unlike travel restrictions on europe and china this was a mutual agreement between the 2 countries as both countries take aggressive measures to block their spread of the virus while maintaining their economic relationship canadian Prime M

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