For shutting down parliament pending a queens speech in may to october just dramatically cutting down the opportunity for parliament she initiatives however public will still be meeting next week and may still attempt to seize control of the order paper from the government i detect to legislate against an ordeal breaks it is clear that mr brokaw would facilitate such a move describing the governments moving out and outreach in addition the courts may take a hand with a Scottish Court action led by the for measurable jarana charity to see already until we however parliaments time to act has been severely limited by the governments moves no one can be sure high this drama will all play out over the next few weeks however to engage in some informed guesswork alex is joining to victoria tara gardens by top political commentators peace all born and Steve Richards if anyone knows whats going to happen then go. Joins us from victoria thats right outside the palace of westminster where next week the m. P. s return for the whole of this for a dramatic do new more of the bracks struggle no one really knows whats going to happen those early number of permutations but if anyone can help us understand the to guess that the computer olbermann and steve riches to double the of political commentary welcome to. Peter if only knows the inner workings of the conservative party you do so what is going on with Boris Johnson the snow is he actually wanting a deal or is he just preparing are an election plot for mr johnson i can assure you really wants a deal its easy is a very intelligent man hes been a brussels correspondent 30 years ago he understands how europe works and i know that because ive talked to quite a lot over many years he knows no deal is going is the work road to do a road to industrial devastation in this country he knows the language of europe as well he can talk to donald tusk we saw that over the weekend he can talk to the diplomats the politicians he got on well even with macron of course he wants a deal what he has also to handle of course is his rhetoric the other audience which he has to deal which is the conservative party very very fanatical people who want no deal and that wont have anything to do with europe and in order to become leader of the conservative party hes had to self to the where guns of the conservative party that is the dilemma we are in at the moment so steve are you reading the situation or do you think johnson seems to be making demands of other europeans that they cant possibly meet he is making the parts which they cant meet. That doesnt mean that he doesnt want to deal it is obvious that a better solution for him if he could find one but im usually for a new british Prime Minister he has left himself no wriggle room is the plan is a game plan to the other parties and to a parliamentary vote to fade or because i barely for a nearly election to to go to the polls when the going is good i dont like talking about speculation in politics what might somebody be doing or going into motivation i just want to describe what you can see happening and what youre seeing happening is constitutional and political outrage and entertaining the idea of no deal which means the degradation of industrial britain it means thousands of people in britain losing their jobs maybe hundreds of thousands now from mr cummings who lives in northumberland on the ample estate sees not going to personally suffer you know the car work will lose his job or her job and thats what i find a bit sick a bit ill making about whats going on at the moment in terms of vandalism for at least the idea of parliament they couldnt do anything about. The deadline or for halloween for breaks but it seems to have brought the opposition parties to go how do you rate the truck shows declaration of this tuesday as a side in the opposition or getting the act together i think its significant because there has been considerable focus over what the various opponents of no deal disagree about and there are many things they disagree about but they agree by definition that they want to stop no deal parliament. Failed by the government to your to keep the opposition parties guessing all of these seriously considering driving through. Parliament not even setting the mere fact that the at the greatest crisis peacetime crisis in british politics since world war 2 mr johnson is entertaining the idea of getting rid of parliament is quite staggering amazing and its a great deal of the client nature of the British Press that they arent worried about this we live i dont need to remind you or mr richards in a Representative Democracy parliamentary democracy mr johnson is current proposing to abolish that it staggers me that the telegraph newspaper which used to stand up to what britain stands for the times newspaper. Go along with this idea that we certainly move ourselves on to an elected dictatorship but wouldnt that maximize that mean remember rory stewart through your famously and conserve the Leadership Campaign said that hed be marching or parliament with the speaker in the veyron given the speaker burkas views wouldnt you just maximise the opposition by undertaking a maneuver such as that i like to think the owner of ball is such as mr stuart the s. And a i think. Excellence on this has Jeremy Colbert whos been absolutely clear about that and joe swinson who seems to be waking up after a long period of negligence are concerned about that kind of issue but if things stay virtuous i mean this thing pass straight us. Maneuver a bit of a cunning trick doesnt mean he mustnt i really we mustnt think how clever they are we mustnt go into that song. Because we can only guess at those we could look at the actual consta. Decency and of the honor of the way people are behaving well as us take it this way when we had the opposition last week facing a very difficult to even the who might be a. Prime minister for for a period of time and space are the same or not that were not that one this week we saw the opposition to despoil opposition coming together in the shop chose the one thing that got them absolutely united is the author of parliament being suspended or what would be the governments interest in actually doing something that would maximize the opposition it would be an act of such provocation as peter suggests while it is hazardous to predict whats going to happen next on any from in this drama it would bring the conservative rebels together theyve stated absolutely but although they have doubts on a vote of confidence they are utterly opposed for the reasons peter suggest to the. Of parliament and it would be also i mean when the the main bright cakes was that this Westminster Parliament was meant to be so pretty against a somewhat mythologized view of the European Union to then abolish that very parliament to get through brics it i think will be a not too far but when you say can these disparate people unite around their opposition to that without hesitation yes all the debates are about the mechanisms how do you stop a government from doing such a thing how do you stop a government determined to go out with a no deal with thats what happens. But are they theoretically united to stop the progress of parliament and to stop no deal yes and i think the sense of that will intensify over the coming weeks rather than the opposite the that they can. Agree on a vote of confidence they dont agree that the leader of the opposition jeremy should become Prime Minister but they do agree on these other matters and they will find a way. To make that absolutely clear if that does happen. If the opposition move to control the agenda again to pass legislation to delay the. Deadline once again wouldnt that be. Blue touch paper for Boris Johnson to call an election i think. In the. Situation where you have a minority. Parliament. Elections we are in a parliamentary democracy nobody could object. To the point if there is indeed and they have a election perhaps even one before the. Deadline what might be the outcome i would also look at the elephant in the political discussion of many of these political decisions being made by. A looming recession and the impact that would have under mastic politics. We are in a depression in america. Asians all over america theres poverty and more than half the population lives at or below the poverty line so there are is a bit of a depression going on which has developed into a full blown depression because of neither policies work from the central bank so maybe the problem is the subtle. Dream agreed to prefer. To remember that it was most of the family. There wasnt it was bed much worse objectively today but there was an expectation of the things were going to get better. There was a real sense of hope. There isnt today todays america was shaped by the 10 principles of concentration of wealth and power. Reduced democracy attack solo duo engineer elections manufacture consent and other principles according to. One set of rules for the rich. Thats what happens when you put her into the. Roof will switch who is dedicated to increasing power for chills just as youd expect one of the most influential intellectuals of our time speaks about the modern civilization of america. So what weve got to do is identify the threats that we have its crazy. Let it be an arms race. Spearing dramatic to follow only closely im going to resist i dont see how that strategy will be successful very critical time to sit down and talk. Welcome back you joined us again in victoria. Where were discussing the prospects of a nearly election peter oborne and steve jobs steve is it will likely given the circumstances of the opposition parties are managing to to seize the parliamentary agenda to prevent. That that in itself would provoke and they. Might one of the problems when you start going down any of these routes is you see all the political explosions that might erupt around it and there is a very big problem about calling an election before britain has left the European Union i think from the conservative point of view the brics at passy would stand. Weve heard nigel farage this week say johnson is not to be trusted and that is one risk more generally early elections in british politics rarely turn out as the color of that election expects but the rim any other problems so while it seems to me this parliament is paralyzed and cant reach any agreement on anything i still see problems with that early election before october 31st if it was happening if britain were to crash out jorun an Election Campaign the problem there is no deal would have happened there is a quite likely prospect of chaos from day one so i see big problems with an early election but i fully accept that this Westminster Parliament cannot pass virtually anything Domestic Legislation as well as the bracks it related stuff so you can see the argument for it but i can see big arguments against and im afraid thats all i can say at this moment its very hard to predict solely electional would have substantial risks but unlike his predecessor to lose. Who called an election for reasons which seem very curious when you had a majority in parliament and perhaps paid a price for it that starts on the these circumstances would be calling election having been in the house of commons of the parliament seizing control of the great when we have the ideal platform to say as parliament against the people i think thats what they are considering which is the people voted for. 3 years ago parliament has been. Backed by brussels they wouldnt just say it was parliament against the people it would be parliament and brussel the collaborators because of the very ugly phrase deliberately used use recently by the Prime Minister himself about collaboration to scum juror up those people who got along well with the axis powers in world war 2 its a very its a part of the debasement of our Public Discourse and i but i think thats what he would try and do and i think you would then gets several things that happen one is that there would be a mutiny inside the conservative party i think quite a lot of tory m. P. s including potentially to raise that may but certainly i think Philip Hammond i. E. The former Prime Minister and chancellor but lots of others. Is another one would actually not stand in the conservative interest and so you get a slice in the conservative party you would also get a split in the labor theres a number of labor m. P. s others in the northeast who feel that bracks it should take place on reflecting the views of that constituency you get both parties splitting it would be quite co chaotic and i think that the and once again what you have here is mr jones is quite is very very the term in well advised and very well financed hes got the big donors the hedge fund the hedge fund manager. As the international trash capital behind johns and and that make means a law in another campaign they can buy the advertising they can do the facebook stuff and against that you divide divide your labor party but the theory which some prominent journalist yourself people have been putting forward about the connection between the politics of blacks and the possibility even the probability of a serious World Economic recession that most people talk about blacks as provoking economic dislocation. When you would want to have an election rather governed by your expectations on the economy i definitely think that we live in a very dangerous moment in world history. Weve always had recessions they come along every so often we have one in 9090 we have one in 2008 and its part of the not the way that your former economist you know how capitalism works it needs recessions you cut down dead trees and but what i think is very frightening about the Current Situation is the sheer levels of debt which almost every country in the world barring germany has assembled and the very low that very low Interest Rates because when you what you have normally in a recession is that the central bankers and the International Treasuries they get together they produce Interest Rates and they print molly splurge spending to in order to adjust keynesian economics and that isnt available to us Interest Rates now blossom and debt is an astronomical level i think im right in saying that Something Like the level of debt in the world is 3 times as much as the Global National puts and other words they havent got any far you have its like you cant fight a recession because all youve got is pop guns so johnson be what hes thinking about this late at night believe the most haunted by his predecessor to these are me who called an unnecessary election the loss of a majority only but a member who didnt take advantage of a honeymoon period when he seemed to have an opportunity to dodge to the pools or be the most influential president both both and he will be thinking of both the theresa may want is a real warning but opinion polls can guide people towards their 2 she never recovered from calling a selection at the beginning she was 20 points ahead. For gordon brown one is a warning on 2 fronts 1st of all if you allow election speculation to get out of hand you lose all control you could call one and lose it. He could not call one and look pathetic and weak so hes got to decide very quickly either to kill off the speculation unequivocally or call what both have risks obviously if he were to win it it will be a trial course but none of us including him could know that as he contemplates these moves late at night and Peter Overton youve been very critical of many aspects of the politics of germany carbon the Labor Party Leader but he did show in the last general election as he campaigner he exceeded peoples expectations many times over do you think Jeremy Corbin in the election framework could pull that off again or or do you think when it comes to taking on bulls will jeremy says lost his mortal. I think that mr gore right mr coleman was an amazing even if you showed us all fools made us all fools he is good on the campaign trail there is something they look at jeremy lin the people do when they think compare him to. Kevin compare him to mrs may he was amazing how would corbin match up to boris at the moment boris is very new he hasnt been properly exposed he produces this kind of carries more and glamour and he might be a little bit powerful against corbin i think thats what mr johnsons of advisors will be telling him so steve. A number of permutations for the parliamentary action a number of ways we could get to know actually be not. Deadline is looming. On the spot weve said what might happen whats going to happen well look none of us know as weve said many many times but i think if it looks as if the u. K. Is heading for no deal there will be an attempt for parliament to seize control of the executive and that attempt will succeed. And the speaker will facilitate it and the majority will vote for it and then there will be legislation instructing the Prime Ministers to negotiate a 6 month extension and that too will get a majority in the house of commons if it looks as if no deal does the only other route what happens after that i cannot begin to speculate in other words will the government declare that they are going to ignore it. As some constitutional experts suggest break the law or will they win some legal battle that suggests that they have legal parata to i dont know about that but that i think is what will happen if it looks as if the 31st britain is about to leave with no deal and peter the last time you were sitting in those green speculating you forecasters certain would be the biggest state constitutional battle so is the english civil war are you holding to that and whats going to happen. Yeah i do what i do hope the most momentous moment is quite frightening i any sensible person should be kept to wake at night you know one thing id add to. Steve ritchie is hes very knowledgeable. He di