Brooklyn, how we doing . Im luke, the host and Creative Director of Msnbc Live, and we are so excited to welcome you to our very first and sold out fan focused event [ applause ] thank you and this is where you get to meet and greet your favorite nbc personalities live and in person, and i can let you guys in on a little secret. Steve Kornackis Khakis are just as glorious in real life. Over the course of the day jen psaki, joy reid, and so many others will give you their take on the state of this wild and crazy election. Lets get this thing kicked off. Please welcome to the stage, the chart throb himself, the man, you know who im talking about, the man with the most incredible map, the hardest working man in politics, whos on live almost 48 hours in a 24 hour day, Steve Kornacki but Hold On, Hold On he will be joined by the pride of Los Angeles Katie steve, katie [ applause ] on Election Nights, you usually start out the night by telling us certain places youll be looking for early to give us a hint on where this election is going. Give us a clue now. What districts, what counties, what states will you be watching to see where this thing is headed . Yeah, i mean one of the first Poll Closings well be getting on Election Night is indiana. We think of hamilton county, indianapolis. Its, its a county i think that could offer us a lot of clues, but the complicating factor is not every county reports the vote out with the same speed. Theyve been slow there in the past. So i think about this a lot, and there are a lot of different places. Virginia closes relatively early. Suburbs of Richmond And Dc could be telling. The Virginia Beach area. It may take awhile to get a complete picture from there, though. The one place we can count on to get complete and quick results is florida. Florida closes at 7 0 0 p. M. Ment within a half hour under state law, every county has to report out its early Vote And Mail vote. Thats about twothirds of all the vote. Then really any time after that, they start reporting out the rest. Within an hour, youve got tons of florida counties that are 100 in. Within two hours you really know where the state is going. Its so interesting because when i think of florida i think of Hanging Chads and days of waiting to see where things is going. To see now florida is so good at this, theyve made a turn around. But it feels like democrats have written florida off. They dont feel like florida will be a win for them. So if youre watching florida and its red, what specifically are you watching for within florida . Well, thats it. Its not one of the Core Battleground states, but youre looking for a trend. So one thing well be showing on Election Night as florida comes in is just county by county. Say we get Pasco County from the gulf coast, we get 100 . What i call up on the screen, youll see the result on Election Night, and next to it ill press a button, imagine im pressing a button here, and a drawer is going to open and show you how the county voted in 2020. And youre going to say is there a trend here . You know, is, okay harris lost this county, did she lose it by less than biden had lost it by . Is she losing it by more . Then youll see that, you know, in florida well get the most complete picture of what that trend looks like. Of course, there can be geographic specific trends, something happening in florida that isnt helping elsewhere. But i think florida will give us the most early possibility of a trend. I love this about steve. We do commercials, so you probably have an idea, but if you go to his office, what hes doing every single day right now is looking at maps, looking at counties, understanding the history of individual counties, the demographics, how they voted in the past. You could probably name any county in the country right now, certainly if its a battleground state, and Steve Will Toll you the history of that county right this second while sitting here on the stage. Hes a savant its true lets focus more on battlegrounds. You talked about pennsylvania. Theres some interesting Senate Races that i think, um, Id Love to focus on with you. Theres a Senate Race in pennsylvania, a Senate Race in arizona, a Senate Race in florida that gets a little chatter, and then theres one in texas. What are the chances that democrats take any seats in those states . Well, the, The Big Question i think when it comes to the, you know, Senate Races, and even house races for that matter is what is going to, what is going to win out in voters minds in these states . Are they going to look at the ballot and treat the Senate Race and president ial race as two different ones are there split ticket voters. Exactly. Because in 2016 and 2020, there was a Grand Total of one state in both elections with the winner of the Senate Race came from a different party as the winner of the president ial race in that state, and that state was, maybe theres folks from there, maine 2020. Susan collins republican was reelected, Joe Biden democrat. Thats the only one. So seeing polling in pennsylvania, razor thin in the president ial race. Razor thin there. Democrats doing better in the Senate Race. Seeing that in arizona, michigan. Does that hold or is there a convergence In The End . In The End if Donald Trump were just able to get over the top in pennsylvania, does he left up the republican Senate Candidate and bring him just over the top or is there more separation there . Certainly looking at the polling, im open to the idea that we could see some Split Ticket Voting like we havent before, but i balance that in my mind with i think we thought there would be some in 2016 and 2020 and there isnt. Abortion is a big issue in a number of states. There are a number of ballot issues on abortion. Florida is one of those states. Do you see democrats being helped by abortion being on the ballot in florida or do you see, from what youre reading in the numbers so far, republicans who support access to abortion, going out and voting to make it enshrined in the constitution in that state, voting for that amendment, but then going and feeling safe to vote for the republican, for Donald Trump . Yeah, i mean the evidence that ive seen so far since this became a State Issue with the overturning of Roe V. Wade in 2022 is that voters are by and large making a distinction between their view of the issue and whatever their partisan orientation is. A good example is ohio, which has become a fairly Red State in the trump era. And ohio had a Ballot Referendum on abortion and the prochoice side won very easily in republican counties. But that played out against the backdrop of a gubernatorial race in 2022 where you had a prolife republican governor and a democratic nominee who was making abortion the Center Piece of her campaign, and the prolife republican governor easily won. We see that with kemp in georgia, reynolds in iowa. I think politically the benefit for abortion for democrats has been in special elections. Special elections for the house, that sort of thing, that are generally low turnout events. And i think abortion is one of those issues thats galvanized democratic voters to turn out in disproportionate numbers in special elections. But in a president ial election when everyone is voting, that advantage might go away. And georgia, talking about if its going red or blue, cory bush is a representative from georgia who won her race based on her experience with Gun Violence and believing uly there needs to be gun control. Is gun, the Gun Issue going to be a Difference Maker . Ive yet to see it. I remember in the wake of sandy hook, which was 12 years ago now. I remember there was a very big push in the u. S. Senate for a Background Check Bill after that. Joe manchin and Pat Toomey got together. There was a lot of talk in polling on background checks, it was literally 90 to 10, that kind of thing, supporting it. Filibusterer ended that effort in the senate and there was just, there was a lot of talk and a lot of effort that went into take these, filibustererred it in 2014, not a single one of them lost. Not a single one lost or underperformed in a way that you could link to that issue, and it sort of created. In my mind i go back to that because im always willing to have my mind changed or surprised, but i havent seen any political or electoral developments since that have changed that basic, what we saw then in terms of being the reality politically. The polls themselves, there was a lot of talk after 2020 or 2016 that the polls were inaccurate and didnt actually show what would happen. Hillary clinton lost. The polls had showed her ahead for the entire race. Can people trust polling right now . Can we rook at the numbers and say those are accurate . I think you look at the polls right now, and i think you should put an asterisk when you see them. Particularly in the Northern Tier of battleground states. Wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania. Especially wisconsin and michigan, though. But the volatility in polling and the big polling miss. We talk about 2020. Biden went into Election Day with seemingly, you know, a huge lead nationally and all the battlegrounds, and then trump came within approximately 42,000 votes of winning the presidency and Electoral College. It had everything to do with these trump supporting Blue Collar white voters in the northern states being underestimated. Call it nonresponse bias, is it because they didnt want to take part in polling and hung up the phone in disproportionate numbers or pollsters failing to reach them is an issue that trump supporters, i guess a lot of voters who only vote for him once every four years dont vote in other elections. Whatever the explanation is we saw it twice in 16 and 20. In 20 about three weeks before Election Day there was a poll in wisconsin that had Joe Biden ahead by 17 points, and the final margin was about half a . In michigan, the Poll Average in michigan on Election Day was biden by 8. He won by 150,000 votes, but it wasnt 8 votes. Thats why candidates traditionally say dont believe the polls, dont get complacent, get out and vote. Coming up, we dive into trumps ongoing legal troubles as we dive into Election Day, and later Andrea Mitchell, Chris Hayes, his special guest Kate Shaw, and the host of the weekend take the stage. Rachel maddow and Lawrence O Donnell are here too. Barely making a Sound And Command the road as well as what lies ahead . How we get there matters. Get exceptional offers at your local audi dealer. [coughs] when caroline has a cough, she takes robitussin. So, she can have those one on ones again. Hey jim can we talk about Casual Fridays . Oh sure. Whats up . Get fast, powerful Cough Relief with robitussin, and find your voice. Robitussin Pete G. Writes, my tween wants a new phone. And find your voice. How do i not break the bank . We gotcha, pete. Xfinity mobile was designed to save you money and gives you access to wifi speeds up to a gig. So you get high speeds for low prices. Better than getting low speeds for high prices. Right, bruce . Jealous . Yeah, look at that. Honestly. Someone get a helmet on this guy. Xfinity internet customers, ask how to get a free 5g Phone and a second unlimited line free for a year. Switch Today Democracy is participatory. Looking out at our community and saying we see you guys tonight. Civics and journalism ideally should be participatory. Its been a very busy year of legal challenges for former president Donald Trump. Four criminal cases, being found guilty on 34 counts, with sentencing pending just delayed until november 26th, after the election. And there is a president ial election in the balance. Here to talk about all of that are the Stud Msnbc legal eagles, the host of the the beat, ari, and former lead prosecutor, Law Professor, and cohost. How you doing . [ applause ] nice to see you. Look at this Guy Right . Lets start with Donald Trump tried to overthrow and steal an election he lost and is now running for office again. And we have seen the legal System Work in some ways and falter in others. The federal Coup Case is scheduled to continue in narrower form after the election basically. So what can you tell us is the latest briefing and how do you feel as someone whos worked in the Justice Department and seen it play out this way . Id say big, Big Picture is in Case Anyone in the audience does not think the Supreme Court is on the ballot, um, obviously you can look at all sorts of decisions starting with dobbs. But the supreme Court President ial Immunity Decision is the gift that keeps on giving for Donald Trump. Your comment about the fact that it narrowed the case In Dc is totally fair. The Superseding Indictment that was brought by Jack Smith substantially was narrowed, not because Jack Smith wanted to. It was because of the Supreme Court, um, and the same thing is happening in New York where the judge has to make a decision, which many of you are going how can that possibly be the case . Because the new York Case has nothing to do with what he was doing while he was president , as president. It was personal. And the Supreme Court said not only do we give him president ial immunity, but when hes acting in an official capacity, nothing from that time period can be used as evidence in a trial, even for unofficial personal conduct. So the reason that the judge has a difficulty here is he put off, not just the sentencing, but he also put off the decision on the immunity question, which is also pending. And one thing thats a Silver Lining. Im not saying he should have put it off, but one Silver Lining by putting off the immunity and Sentencing Decision is it keeps the case out of the clutches of the Supreme Court. If trump wins the election, we all get the refresher about how a sitting president is in charge of doj rules, so remember that. If he loses, then you expect him to go on trial In Dc for the attempted coup . Absent the Supreme Court, you know, where it was sort of 6 to 3, 5 to 4, Amy Coney Barrett is someone to keep your eye on because she didnt go along with some of it and showed some sort of good faith dealing with the issues. The big issue that remains is how much the Supreme Court continues to mess up that case. If Donald Trump does not win, the case goes forward. It will go back to the Supreme Court, however, before theres a trial. There will be a second bite at the apple. Then im co