Brooklyn, how are we doing . I am luke rustin, the host and greater director of Msnbc Live. We are excited to welcome you to our very first and sold out fan focused event. Thank you. This is where you get to meet and greet your favorite msnbc personalities live and in person and i can let you in on a little secret, Steve Kornackis khakis are just as glorious in real life. Over the course of the day jen psaki, Joy Reid and so many others will give you their take on the state of this wild and crazy election. Let us get this thing kicked off. Please welcome to the stage, the charthorb himself, the man with the most incredible map who is the hardest Working Man in politics and online almost 24 hours in a day. Steve Steve Kornacki but hold on. He will be joined by the pride of los angeles, katie turner. Steve, katie. On Election Nights, usually start off by telling us certain places you will look for early to give us a hint on where this election is going. Give us a clue now. What districts and counties will you be watching to see where this is headed . One of the first Poll Closings you will get is in indiana. It is a county that could offer us a lot of clues. The complicating factor is not every county reports the vote out with the same speed. There is a lot of different places with virginia closing relatively early. Suburbs of richmond and d. C. , they could be tallying with the Virginia Beach area. It may take a while to get a complete picture. One place we can count on to get pretty complete and quick results will be florida. Florida closes at 7 00 p. M. Within half an hour under State Law every county has to report out its early vote and its male vote. That about two thirds of all the vote. Anytime after that, they report out the rest, within an hour. You have tons of florida counties that are 100 in within two hours you know where the state is going. When i think of ford i think of Hanging Chad and days of waiting. To see florida is so good at this, they make a turnaround. Democrats have written florida off. They do not believe that florida will be a win for them. If you are watching florida and it is red, what are you watching for with in florida . It is not one of the Battleground States but you are looking for a trend. One thing we will show on Election Night as a florida comes in is just county by county. Let us say we get Pasco County from the gulf coast, 100 . You will see the result on Election Night and right next you press a button. An adorable open and will. How the county voted in 2020. Harris Losses County has she lost it by less than biden . Is she losing it by more . And then you can see that in a florida when you get the most complete picture of what that trend looks like. There can be geographic specific trends. Something happening in florida thats not happening elsewhere. Florida will give our most early complete look of the possibility. We do commercials and you probably have an idea. If you go to his office, what hes doing every single day right now is looking at maps. Looking at counties understanding the history of individual counties, how they voted in the past. You could probably name any county in this country right now, if it is certainly a Battleground State and steve will tell you the history of that county, right this second while he is sitting there on the stage. He is the savant. It is true. Let us focus more on battlegrounds. You talked about pennsylvania. There is some interesting Senate Races that i think Id Love to focus on with you. There is the race in pennsylvania. There is Senate Race in arizona. A Senate Race in florida that gets a little chatter. And then there is one in texas. What are the chances that democrats take any seats in those states . The big question when it comes to the Senate Races and House Races is what is going to win out in minds of the states . Are they going to look at the ballot and treat the Senate Race as two distinct elections . Arbor split Ticket Voters . Correct. In the two previous Lumbar Donald Trump has been a candidate, there was a Grand Total of one state in both elections where the winner of the Senate Race came from a different party as a winner of the president ial race. That state was maybe there were some folks from there, maine, 2020, susan collins, republican was reelected and then Joe Biden. Using polling in a pace with pennsylvania. Razor thin there. Democrats doing better in the Senate Race. Seeing that in arizona and a bunch of state, michigan. Does that hold or is there a convergence In The End if Donald Trump were to get just over the top in pennsylvania, does he lift up mccormick and bring him just over the top or is there more separation. Certainly looking at the polling, im open to the idea that we may see some split ticket voting. I balance that in my mind i think we thought there would be some in 2016 and it ended up there wasnt. Abortion is a big issue in a number of states, florida is one of those states. Do you see democrats being helped by abortion being on the ballot in a florida or do you see, from what youre reading in the number so far, republicans who support access to abortion, going out and voting to make it enshrined in the constitution in that state. Voting for that amendment but going and feeling safe to vote for the republican, Donald Trump. The evidence as this became a state with the overturning of roe v. Wade is that voters are making a distinction between their view of the issue and whatever their partisan orientation is. A good example of this would be ohio. Which has become a fairly Red State in the trump era. Ohio had a Ballot Referendum on abortion in the prochoice won the ballot very easily and republican counties. You have to play that against the backdrop of the gubernatorial race in 2022. You had a prolife republican governor and a democratic nominee who is Making Abortion for the centerpiece of her campaign and the prolife republican governor easily won but we see that with Brian Kemp In Georgia and Kim Reynolds in iowa. Politically, the benefit of abortion for the democrats has been, i think we have seen it, in special elections. They are generally low turnout events. Abortion is one of those issues that is galvanizing democratic voters to turn out in disproportionate numbers in special elections. In president ial elections, that advantage might be washed away. What about Gun Violence because we talk about georgia and whether that goes better blue. Corey bush is a representative from georgia who won a race based on her experience with Gun Violence and being strong in believing that he speak gun control. The Gun Issue is it going to be a Difference Maker . I have yet to see it. I can remember the wake of sandy hook, just 12 years ago now, it was a very big push in the u. S. Senate for a Background Check and that was the Joe Manchin democrat, west virginia. And the republican of pennsylvania got together. There was a lot of talk in the polling of Background Checks. It was literally 9010 supporting it. Filibuster ended that effort in the senate. There was a lot of Talk And Effort that went into take a bunch of these senators who filibustered it. This is a 9010 issue. Not a single one lost. Not a single one lost and not a single One Of Them underperformed in a way that you could not link to that issue. That is creating, in my mind, i go back to that. Im always willing to have my mind changed. I have not seen any political development that have changed that basic, what we saw then. The polls themselves, there was a lot of talk after 2020 or 2016 that the polls were inaccurate. They did not actually show what was going to happen. Hillary clinton lost. The polls had showed her ahead for the entire race. Can people trust polling right now . Can they look at the numbers and say those are accurate . You like at the polls right now and you should put an asterisk when you see them. Particularly in the Northern Tier of Battleground States. Wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania especially wisconsin and michigan the volatility in polling, the big polling mess. We talk about 2020. Biden went into Election Day was seemingly huge lead nationally in all these battlegrounds and trump came with and 42,000 vote across three states of winning the presidency with the Electoral College. It had everything to do with trump supporting bluecollar white voters in these northern states. They were underestimated in the polls. There is a lot of theories about nonresponse bias. Was this because those voters when reached did not want to take part of polling . And just hung up the phone in disproportionate numbers or posters failing to reach them, is it an issue that trump supporters have a lot of voters to only vote for him once every four years. , whatever the explanation is, we saw this twice. The this in 20 there was an abc poll about three weeks before Election Day. It had Joe Biden im not kidding you i 17 points in that state. The final margin was about half of a percent. In michigan, there were polls, the Poll Average on Election Date was invited by eight points. It was not eight points. Tradition cancels they do not believe the polls, go out and vote. Do not get complacent. To make sure to get out there. Coming up, Ari Melber and Andrew Weissmann Dive into trumps ongoing legal troubles as we countdown to Election Day. Stephanie ruhle, Joy Reid, jen psaki, Andrea Mitchell, Chris Hayes, special Guest Kate Shaw and the hosts of the weekend take the stage. Rachel maddow and Lawrence Odonnell are here too. Stick around. 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Symptoms like irregular heartbeat, heart racing, chest pain, shortness of breath, fatigue, or lightheadedness, can come and go. But if you have afib, the risk of stroke is always there. If you have one or more symptoms, get checked out. Making that appointment can help you get ahead of stroke risk. This is no time to wait. Its mesmerizing. Cleaning that greasy mess with dawn platinum. And not even scrubbing. Well, fluff my feathers. [giggle] it cuts through the slimy stuff better than their old dish soap, removing 99 of grease. Thats why only dawn is trusted to save wildlife. Democracy is but just for tori. The fact that the Msnbc Communities that engage, i am looking at our own audience and sing i see you guys tonight. Journalism ideally should be participatory. [ applause ] it has been a very busy year of legal challenges for president Donald Trump. Four criminal cases being found guilty on 34 counts with sentencing pending, just delayed until november 26, after the election. And there is a president ial election in the balance. Here to talk about all of that are the Stud Msnbc legal eagles , the host of The Beat mc Ari Melber and Law Professor and cohosts [ applause ] look at this guy. Let us start with Donald Trump tried to overthrow and steal an election he lost and is now running for office again. We have seen the legal System Work in some ways and falter in others. The federal coup case, is scheduled to continue in a narrower form after the election, basically. What can you tell us is the latest briefing and how do you feel as someone whos worked in the justice permits you to play out in this way . Big picture is in Case Anyone in the audience does not think the Supreme Court is on the ballot, and obviously you can look at all sorts of decisions starting with dobbs that the Supreme Court of president ial Immunity Decision is the gift that keeps on giving for Donald Trump. Your comment about the fact that it mero the case in d. C. Is totally fair. The Superseding Indictment that was brought by Jack Smith substantially was narrowed not because of Jack Smith wanted to. It was because of the Supreme Court and the same thing is happening in New York where Judge Mershon has to make a decision, which many of you are going how could i possibly be the case because the new York Case has nothing to do with what he was doing while he was president. As president , it was personal. The Supreme Court said, not only do we give him president ial immunity but when he is acting in an official capacity, nothing from that time period can be used as evidence in a trial even for unofficial personal conduct the reason that Judge Merchan has difficulty here is he put off not just the sentencing but he also put off the decision on the immunity question, which is also pending. One thing that is a Silver Lining. Im not saying he should have put it off. But one Silver Lining is putting off the Immunity Decision and the sentencing as it keeps this case out of the clutches of the Supreme Court. [ applause ] if trump wins the election, we all got the refresher about how a sitting president is not chargeable under the rule. If he loses, then you expect him to go on trial in d. C. For the attempted coup. Absent the Supreme Court, you know, where it was 63, 54 , someone keep your eye on because she did not go along with all of that outrageous parts of the decision. Really interesting. It showed some good faith dealing with the issues. The big issue that will remain is how much the Supreme Court continues to mess up that case. If Donald Trump does not win, the case goes forward and it will go back to the Supreme Court, however, before there is a trial. There will be a Second Bite Of The Apple on that. I am confident that Judge Merchan<