Transcripts For MSNBC Ayman 20240929 : comparemela.com

Transcripts For MSNBC Ayman 20240929

Dates in all of it. Trump says he will negotiate a deal to end the war on ukraine that will be good for both sides but what is he talking about? hurricane helene has left a trail of destruction across the southeastern united states. Dozens are dead and millions without power and there are two other storms during tonight in the atlantic. I am ayman mohyeldin and let us do it. We are tracking the pollen across the middle east after hezbollah confirmed earlier today it's a leader, hassan nasrallah, was killed by an israeli airstrike in southern beirut the israeli military has india strikes across lebanon with evacuation orders for neighborhoods and cities southern suburbs. Amid the ramped up attacks hospitals in beirut are filling up with the exact death toll from yesterday's attack and subsequent airstrikes remains unclear but at least 1000 people have been killed since september 17th. The day thousands of pager exploded simultaneously across the country. Around 200,000 residents have been displaced. I running proxies have large retaliatory missiles into israel from both lebanon and yemen. Iran condemned the strike that killed nasrallah as a, quote, blatant war crime and called for plans to send troops to lebanon. Hours ago benjamin netanyahu gave remarks from tel aviv saying in part, quote, nasrallah's assassination was an essential condition to achieving the goals we set he said that this killing is the key to restoring power balance. If we look at today's offensive through an historical lens that might be wishful thinking. Almost 33 years ago than it israeli prime minister assassinated nasrallah's predecessor, abbas almusawi. Expecting the move to weaken hezbollah. That did not stop the organization by watching attacks by israeli troops for decades. When nasrallah took over, hezbollah became more powerful and influential as he built the organization into a demonic domestic political force and a top military player in the region. He was a wellknown rising politician at the time. Of course, he witnessed all of this. The killing of nasrallah is a blow to hezbollah and an inflection point for lebanon but is it a tactical shortterm win for israel or a longterm solution? joining us now are romney, the american university of beirut. And senior news editor at dell monitor, who have decades of experience covering the middle east. You have been sounding the alarm for a few months about what was taking place in lebanon. This kind of path to this point, if you well. Back in june netanyahu said publicly he was going to shift his focus from gaza to lebanon let me get your reactions to what has played out given what i laid out the predecessor from nasrallah was also and israel has assassinated almost 32 years ago. Good to be with you. What you said about assassinating leaders of these movements only leads to more militant people taking their place and the movements growing and becoming more lethal is absolutely correct. This is not just a lebanese thing. This is universal. It is all over the world. When the french captured the leaders of the algerian resistance movement in the 1950s on a hijacked plane, the resistance got bigger and eventually the french were thrown out of algeria. The reality of hezbollah is that it is a lebanese anchored social justice military resistance and nationalist movement but is part of a web of other similar movements around the middle east. This build up of hezbollah over last 30 or 40 years has given it special importance at a regional level with the access of resistance. Which iran heavily helped to shape. The big question for me, what is going to happen to the access of resistance. Not just what will iran do but what will the other members do and how much will hezbollah be able to take military action against israel? the answer to all of those is that most of this will continue but there may be some slight tactical shifts in the short term. In the long term, this is an historic process. The resistance of people to live freely on their own land is probably the greatest force in the history of humankind. In terms of nationalism and politics. The israelis will be confronted for a long time with lebanon and palestine. They were in other places with the occupied land. I see this as a big jolt for hezbollah but a temporary one. We will need to wait and see what is the condition of hezbollah , which we won't know for a couple weeks. They are still firing rockets and those rockets come from yemen and they should worry the israelis. The bottom line is that this kind of mutual military attack makes people feel good but will not resolve the conflict. You also may have a political resolution. Joyce, let me get your thoughts and what it means in terms lebanon's political scene. Hezbollah i was the a paramilitary force and consider an organization here in the west but it is also political party that has members of parliament and ministers in the current government in lebanon. Some saw hezbollah as a kingmaker, if you will or a major power broker in internal lebanese politics. Given what has happened to the leadership and its, you know, source of power, if you will, inside the country what is it mean for lebanese policies and politics in the country? this transformation you are talking about for hezbollah from a militant organization they entered the government in 2005 that was, in big part, the legacy of hassan nasrallah. He could get them to be a fighting group to the most powerful, not just political party in lebanon but also the military structure in lebanon. Today hezbollah has more weaponry and is more powerful than the lebanese army. This is the legacy that hassan nasrallah leaves the party with. Now looking ahead, i agree with romney that these are really tough times but not just for hezbollah but also for lebanon. They cannot seem to catch a break. We have been an economic collapse in 2019. We have seen an explosion in 2020. And forward to the october war we are now in a lebanon/israel conflict that could turn into an allout war. People i speak to on the ground today, they are terrified. They are in shock. Saturday in lebanon, as people going out and doing their things, people are not leaving their homes. The streets are clear. Airstrikes continue. People are in shock. They do not know what will come next and they are preparing for the worst. What can happen in the long run i think there are three major factors. One, what does iran decide? iran, as you know, is a powerful player when it comes to shia bring do they decide to retaliate or do they decide to come to the table? we have seen signals in new york during the u. N. General assembly that they are willing to turn to the nuclear negotiations. Number two is the ceasefire that the u. S. Has put on the table. This is a 21 day ceasefire supported by the u. S. , france, arab countries. Does this, the killing of a hassan nasrallah, give way to benjamin netanyahu to declare victory ahead of october 7 and come to the table? he did not do it this week. I know that from u. S. Officials and others that diplomatic efforts continue. Three, this is very important. It is the political scene inside lebanon. This is a country with an acting government and traditional government, no president and an economic collapse. Doesn't lebanon opted for a way forward to at least elect a president and move ahead with elections and stabilize internally with dialogue with hezbollah it remains to be seen but it is these three factors that would determine what would happen in the long run. Tell us a little bit about what you think iran might do. If it has seen its major source of strength in the region. You know, at least at the very least now part of the leadership of decimated in the last 10 days or so. This is a big blow but a temporary blow. These moments are set up based on experience. Knowing that their leaders are targeted and many of them will die. They have to be replaced. They have a system in place to admittedly replace someone who is killed. And the continuity of the work goes on. Iran, may have a big decision to make and it will not make it quickly. The iranians take their time. They have had 3000 years of civilization in the region. Gauging their relations with people and they have a lot of legacy to build on and to think about as they make their decisions. They do not make hasty emotional decisions. Hezbollah was i ron's most successful middle east venture for the islamic resolution of 1979. It was the main success story across the middle east it has taken a blow. This is what iran has to calculate. Does this damage of the whole axis of resistance? is the axis of resistance a serious group or if it is just a nice label? we will have to wait and see. The think about the members of this group is there all territorially anchored. As well as inhome lebanon, hamas and palestine. They are all nationalists local institutions grounded in their own society, reflecting the sentiments of their own citizens. Deeply in touch with sentiments locally and willing to confront forward aggression whether it israeli, american or somebody else. That gives up a lot of power. That is why hezbollah has achieved no arab country or government has ever achieved, the kind of international resistance, power and respect of the people across many people across the arab world. Iran has to figure out whether it's role centrally to end this region of operation has to continue on the scenes or really get directly involved in the work. Let me jump in there because i'm almost out of time and i wanted to give joyce one more question about the replacement for hassan nasrallah or other leaders. Obviously, maybe a little too early to know. Do you know how this decisions happens? who is a likely successor for nasrallah? as you know there is the counsel in hezbollah that would determine who would be nasrallah's successor. To be quite honest and put it bluntly, no matter how hezbollah will try it, it will be impossible to find somebody like hassan nasrallah, who took power at age 32. As i mentioned he transformed the party. The big name that is being talked about is the man that nasrallah mentored. He is also very close to iran. He happens to be 's son happens to be married to the daughter of he is also the maternal cousin of hassan nasrallah. This is the name that is being floated. There is others and other clerics in the country. But he is the most likely to inherit the position. Rami and joyce, thank you so much. 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They stated joe biden said nasrallah was responsible for killing hundreds of americans over four decade reign of terror. His death is a massive measure of justice for his many victims. With me now our director of the kevorkian center for near eastern studies and professor of journalism at nyu and ben rose, political richard ritter and ashes are pretty smart and author of after the fall: being american in the world we have made. Ben, i will start with you. Obviously the united states signaling that it had no prior knowledge to this. You have been in these situations before. There are these high level intelligence operations, if you will. With the united states have been tipped off in any way or had any of its own indication that something this massive or consistent nick consistent could take place given it may have directly impacted america? it just feels more and more like the israeli government is ignoring because not only are they not providing much advance warning, this is against the objections of the in my biden administration were they were urging the deescalation months ago. They were negotiating a 21 day ceasefire at the u. N. And then yahoo authorize the strike from the u. N. It does seem to be like there is a bit of separation in terms of the political objectives of the u. S. And the israeli government. Normally, there is a tactical channel where the israelis give a heads up. This is a bigger question, political and geopolitical question. It feels to me like israel wants to allow the united states to be able to say that we did not know this would happen the united states does not want to seem to be a part of this operation. That said, globally i think what people see is that these were u. S. Bombs. The bunker buster bomb is a u. S. Bomb. Whether we agree with the decision or not, ultimately the united states was a part of it through weapons we provide to israel that carried out the attack. I am sure there trying to figure out what the next steps what is the next move? thus far, i think israel has been confident doing it's on its own. Let me follow up. Is there a little bit of egg on the administration's face. They came out and told the world that they were working on this 21 day ceasefire. They do not want to see escalation or the widening of this war. We have a picture of then yahoo, whose office put out this picture of him, ordering the strike while he was on u. S. Soil. It is suggested as part of his diapers and packet to loll nasrallah out of hiding or make them feel comfortable enough to operate that he is in the united states. He is doing that here from the united states while he was addressing the united nations. If you look at u. S. Administration policy, it reached a dead and in terms of the gaza ceasefire negotiations which has been hostage for ceasefire deal that is unraveled. And then the other play was to try to get saudi normalization of relationship with israel tied to the ceasefire talk. Well he went out just a week or so ago and said, that is off the table so long as they're not a palestinian state. The u. S. Is urging de escalation and trying to negotiate a 21 day ceasefire and then yahoo orders is airstrike from american soil. It is pretty clear that the u. S. Is not dictating events. In fact, the israeli government under prime minister netanyahu that is driving this escalation across the region in gaza and the west bank. Clearly, the israeli government, including security officials who have been in odds with that yahoo kind of feel this is a time to press the accelerator in terms of trying to decapitate hezbollah. Again, tragically. There is hundreds of thousands of lebanese who are caught up in that as well. I want to ask the professor about. I wanted this is happening at the end of the week when you wrote on monday, israel expanded the brutal tactics of its gaza war. Massive bombardment as a placement of civilians into lebanon. You say that the u. S. Cannot allow israel to turn lebanon into gaza. It seems like they are starting to in the southern part of beirut as wells in the southern part of the country. Is what you have seen right now suggestive of that? what is the u. S. Role in contributing to the escalation here? i wrote that right before the attack yesterday i would say they are turning lebanon into the next gaza. Certainly seven beirut and southern lebanon. The most brutal tactics in the massive bombardment. You also have the tactic that they developed in gaza for months now. They are trying to shift people massively move the populations out. We saw that in beirut last night. It spread fear throughout the population but you have people moving at 2:00 and 3:00 a. M. In the morning after receiving the socalled warnings from the idf to evacuate certain areas. You have massive movements of people from southern a route into central beirut. People were sleeping on the beach. People were sleeping in a martyr square. And just everything that israel has done in the last two weeks has been intended to spread panic among civilians and we are not just talking about hezbollah. The term of hundreds of thousands of lebanese civilians. Let me get your thoughts about the expansion. The maga transiting have lost a michelle. What do you think we will hear from hezbollah or running proxies? in terms of just operationally, how much of a setback is this to be able to engage. We are still laying hezbollah firing rockets into northern israel. Which is a state of objective of the israeli government to return the citizens to their homes in northern israel. And that is not going to happen at least in the immediate short term. What is left of hezbollah leadership is trying to convey to netanyahu and israel is the objective, they're not going to allow them to achieve that objective. We have not seen hezbollah use is more precise weapons. It's bigger missiles. Missiles that nasrallah had promised that if israel attacked seven beirut, that he would hit tel aviv with precise muscles, not just the rockets they have been firing on a daily basis. It seems that hezbollah's capability has been degraded severely in the last two weeks. Starting with the pager attacks and walkietalkie explosions. We do not know how effective or successful the israeli strikes on the various parts of the south. Potential missile launching sites. They also killed many civilians. They did 550 civilians, the highest death tolls in lebanon since the civil war. Ben, a final thought to you for the implications of the political race in this country. That is what happened today put kamala harris in a bit of a bind? it seems, as most analysts have suggested, netanyahu favors president trump. This puts the vice presi

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