Reports, escalation in the Middle East. A new bombardment of israeli strikes against hezbollah targets in lebanon and an unprecedented warning to civilians. The fears its stoking of a larger regional war. Plus disturbing new evidence tied to the suspect in that apparent second Assassination Attempt of Donald Trump, including a letter where he appears to confess to the plot. What it means for his case when he face has judge next hour. And new Nbc Polling on the 2024 race showing a historic surge in favorability for Vice President harris. We will look at whats driving that and why this contest is still neck and neck. Good morning and thanks for joining us, it is 10 00 a. M. Eastern, 7 00 a. M. Pacific, im Ana Cabrera reporting from New York. We begin with the Breaking News in the Middle East. Lebanese officials say more than 180 people have been killed after intensifying israeli strikes there overnight. The idf Issuing A first of its kind Evacuation Warning to civilians in Southern Lebanon, warning them to get away from hezbollah targets before more precise and extensive strikes. This is the latest in a series of escalations, raising fears that this conflict could spill into a much wider war. Here is President Biden on that threat. Are you worried about rising tensions on the Middle East . Yes, i am, but were going to do everything we can to keep a wider war from breaking out and were still pushing hard. Lets bring in Nbc News chief foreign correspondent Richard Engel in haifa, israel. Also with us a former green beret, Jason Beardsly and former State Department senior advisor my era hawk. Richard, lebanese authorities say 182 people have been killed in these strikes, weve seen the numbers continue to go up over the course of the morning here. How much of an escalation with these strikes from what weve seen previously . Reporter were seeing a dramatic escalation and it began last week with the attacks that targeted thousands of hezbollah operatives pagers and then walkietalkies and an attack that could only have been carried out by israel and now prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is sort of hinting that israel was responsible although Israel Hasnt officially accepted responsibility, prime Minister Netanyahu said that hezbollah understood israels capabilities with an attack that it hadnt expected and if it didnt get the message, it will get the message, im paraphrasing, but thats what netanyahu was saying. Clearly suggesting that israel was behind that attack on the Command And Control structure. And then after that since yesterday and then all Day Today so far there have been strikes, rolling strikes, on what are being described as hezbollah military sites, sites where rockets are launched, a site that was used according to the israeli military to launch a cruise missile. And it seems that israel is trying to first take out the hezbollah communication network, then there was a strike on beirut, that apparently targeted and you may have just heard an explosion and a second one here, and a third a series of explosions now that are consistent with Israels Iron Dome system. Actually, it is the Iron Dome System if you look behind me, it might be difficult to see with the contrast here is very bright were outside and its a little darker where i am, but you can see the puffs of smoke in the air. Clearly israel is firing at something with fairly intense volleys of the Iron Dome System. Its unclear if these are incoming missiles or more likely drones because i didnt hear any incoming fire. We are in the city of haifa, which is in northern israel. This is a city that hezbollah has said it intends to target, it wants to target. Were right by the port in haifa, which is a target that the that hezbollah has indicated it is something of interest to hezbollah. So we are definitely seeing this conflict moving into northern israel. So it is not just the israelis are attacking mostly Southern Lebanon but also the bekka valley. This is a dramatic escalation. Will this spill into a fullon regional war, a Fullon Ground War . I think that depends on what hezbollah does over the next several days, but we are certainly seeing an escalation here and a war between Hezbollah And Israel is under way without a doubt. Well, please stay safe, richard, and thank you for bringing us the very latest. Keep us posted as we go throughout this hour. And as richard mentioned, jason, theres been now an exchange of these strikes. Were hearing about the strikes happening in Southern Lebanon and then were seeing with our own eyes this morning some return strikes it sounds like coming from lebanon into israel. We know over the Weekend Hezbollah launched 150 rockets, missiles, drones at israel, most of those were captured by the iron dome, a few resulted in some shrapnel wounds of a few civilians, but now we have this first of a kind warning from israel to lebanese civilians to get out. What does that suggest to you about the scope of these strikes . Well, it really is suggestive that their intent here is very clear. They have established the groundwork for decapitating the leadership of Hezbollah And Theyve done that through successive covert actions and now they are using overt actions to tell the population if you are in these areas hiding nested Ammunition Dee boths or in the vicinity of hezbollah targets this is the time to leave that area. The host populations of these societies do not necessarily want to be part of this escalation so israel is attempting to say this is the time to leave because the strooiks are going to continue. A lot of the ammunition, the equipment that is used to launch rockets into northern israel is done in this southern lebanese area, theres a lot of mountains and regions for them to hide this stuff, but a lot of times they will colocate ammunition by civilian targets, under schools or near hospitals and this, then, drives a wedge between hezbollah and the population. Thats part of what israel is saying. So its a very purposeful part of the psychological operation that israel is laying down in front of what were likely to see over the next escalation days, if you will. The u. S. And other allies have been calling for deescalation frankly for months now, here was national Security SpokesmanJohn Kirby just this weekend. We dont believe that a Military Conflict and were saying this directly to our israeli counterparts, george we dont believe that escalating this Military Conflict is in their best interest. Its certainly not going to be in the best interests of all those people that prime minister says he wants to be able to send back home. President biden and netanyahu are among the dozens of leaders here in New York attending the general assembly this week. Could that Inperson Diplomacy Help that message we just heard get through . Well, that would assume that netanyahu actually valued the perspective of the united states to the degree that we would hope given united states support for israeli defense. What we have seen over the course of the last year as israel continues to intensify In Gaza and the West Bank and in lebanon is that netanyahu has an agenda of in his perspective getting rid of the Terrorist Groups that have threatened israel for decades and doing so by being very aggressive and forwardleaning, despite warnings from allies that they have limits. We have not seen what that limit would look like for the united states and biden and others have continued to say they will come to the defense of Israel But Netanyahus actions raise that big question of what does that defense of israel look like when israel is the one being the aggressor . And thats going to fundamentally be the challenge here, particularly when it comes to Israel Warning another country to evacuate civilians. Now, ostensibly that is to, as my colleague said, to drive that psychological wedge, but also israel giving itself cover to say that the civilian casualties that may happen should not have happened because people were told to go, to leave. Where are people supposed to go . Right . The increasing Refugee Crisis is a global challenge being discussed at the united nation this is week and now we have an increasing Refugee Crisis on israels borders as well. Jason, Hezbollahs Deputy Chief says they are now in a phase of openended reckoning and im wondering as weve spent all these months covering more specifically the war against hamas In Gaza, how would a war with hezbollah compare to Twha Weve seen In Gaza . Well, it can a compares in different ways. Hamas in Gaza Thats very urban terrain, a lot of combat that is very difficult to do. Whats different about hezbollah and i think its very important to understand i represent veterans concerned veterans for america. We have american soldiers in Iraq And Syria that are nestled among the populations that are being fronted by Popular Mobilization forces that are run out of iran. These are proxies that have a beef or a grind with the west and so our soldiers right now on the ground are vulnerable there and i think the president , i think the White House can do a little bit better by giving advantage to the United States Military troops that are in harms way. The actual war that might happen with or thats ongoing between Israel And Hezbollah is playing out in the manner youre seeing. A lot of covert action, a lot of overt action, but what ends up happening is, as our colleague also mentioned, is that the populations here are being harassed, both by the hezbollah and by the rockets, the incoming fire from israel. So there has to be a decision made by people who are hosting these hezbollah Terror Networks on how far theyre willing to abide by this Back And Forth that weve seen for years. I think its worth noting that israel did a lot of work to try to target selectively hezbollah leaders, we saw Ebrahim Akeel finally killed, responsible for 243 marines that were killed in beirut in 93. So this is Part And Parcel of a long, enduring campaign, but the problem with going after hezbollah proper is they have networks in yemen, they have them in israel, they have them in syria, they have them in iraq, they have them of course in lebanon. So these have to be carefully conducted. Thats part of what youre seeing. If israel can take out the Ammunition Depots they reduce the risk for people in haifa. Another big Development Weve been watching for is the israeli military is looking into reports that the lead of hamas Yahya Sinwar was killed in a recent israeli strike. Nothing is confirmed, but if sinwar has been killed what do you see as the potential impact on the Israelhamas WarIn Gaza . Hamas already lost their political leader who was one of the key negotiators, he was taken out in an israeli strike in iran and now you have Yahya Sinwar who was the new leader but also considered their merchant of death. These are individuals who have not brought good on to the world, but hamas is not a solo operation, neither is hezbollah. Iran is a big piece of this equation and truly no one in the western world wants to see iran actively involved in a direct conflict in the Middle East. So far its that idea that iran has proxies in these two Terrorist Organizations and there are targeted strikes that have been used to decimate those organizations, but the question is is this escalation by israel into lebanon going to prompt iran to be more provocative as well. Thank you both very much for joining us. We appreciate it. Coming up, a historic shift in our new Nbc News Poll. What it signals about the race for the White House. Also, i will talk with the mayor of springfield, ohio, a republican, pushing back on the baseless conspiracy involving haitian migrants and pets. Plus tragedy in alabama, the urgent manhunt for suspects at a Mass Shooting at a popular nightclub. But first, new evidence against the suspect in that second apparent Assassination Attempt of Donald Trump. That letter where he appears to confess. We are back in 90 seconds. Appe confess. We are back in 90 seconds. This bottle says i need to pretreat. That stuff has way more water. 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So i dont think anybody thought that Ryan Routh showed up at the trump Golf Course with a semiautomatic rifle that sunday a little over a week ago because he was going quail hunting. I think a lot of folks thought this is somebody who is clearly going after trump. The fbi said that in calling it an apparent Assassination Attempt but we hadnt yet seen any sort of indication of exact and specific motive. We knew some of his prior political thoughts, thanks to Social Media and the things he said. Now today federal prosecutors say that approximately a month before this shooting he allegedly left behind a box of documents at a Friends House and once this incident came out, once he was shot at by Secret Service and taken into custody,