President Kamala Harris gaining momentum against Donald Trump including a Record Jump in her favorability rating. Ill get into the story behind the numbers with senior Political Editor mark murray. Defining Donald Trump. Proposing a new plan to avoid a Government Shutdown. Well explain the late breaking developments. J. D. Vance responds to the Mark Robinson Scandal and the allegation of calling him a black nazi with this mind bender. And the allegations are pretty far out there, of course, but theyre not a reality. Im jonathan capehart, this is the Sunday Show. 44 days until next day, and Vice President harris is talking about the September 10 debate, a Brand NewNews Poll shows harris leading trump 49 to 44 . Her advantage is within the margin of error, revealing something historic. Harris favorability, among registered voters, up 16 points since july. That increase in popularity is the biggest for any politician that they have tracked in more than two decades. The News Poll comes after a new Poll Shows growing support for the democratic nominee including one that will have Harris Over Trump in pennsylvania and Plus One in wisconsin. For harris doesnt just have an edge over trump in the polls. She is outperforming the republican nominee in fundraising. They show harris raised 190 million, more than four times what trump pulled in. And her campaign ended with a whopping million dollars in cash on hand. And the highpowered endorsement such as The One she received today from a group of 700 national security leaders. Former secretaries of state and defense, plus more than a dozen retired fourstar generals were among those calling their endorsement of harris, an act of patriotism. With the political winds at her back, it is no wonder why she accepted the Invitation Yesterday to Debate Trump on october 23. Claiming the date was too late. He wont be there for a second round. This afternoon in manhattan, where he hauled in 27 million. The refusal, telling the crowd, my opponent seems to be looking for that excuse to avoid when he should accept. It is a bad excuse. Debating twice in 2020. The second time, october 22. Joining me now is mark murray. Also with me is the pollster and the democratic strategist. Mark, lets start with you and the biggest headline out of the new poll. Jonathan, you touched on Kamala HarrisSkyrocketing Favorability Numbers that are going from july to september by 16 points. As you mentioned, the historical nature. We havent seen someone with that kind of jump. And to put that into our history. And what will also strike me, harris seems to be winning the change argument. When they asked who better represents change by nine percentage points, voters end up indicating he does rather than Donald Trump. And with some people still grouchy about the Nations Direction and about inflation, that her being able as the sitting Vice President to be the Change Candidate verses Donald Trump who is an Ex President to me is always something very key. The other thing with Donald Trump, he does have advantages when it comes to the economy, the cost of living, that they were all down from when he was on the top of the ticket, so that is very significant. Im glad you brought that up because in the story that accompanies the poll on msnbc. Com, it says some of the erosion has come from republicans who arent Die Hard Supporters of the former president. Talk more about that. Jonathan, this is a caution that will come from the polling team. Our nbc News Poll is conducted by the republican team as well as the democratic team that will come together to help us out. And on the republican side, they ended up saying some of the erosion is coming from these soft Nonmaga Type of republicans who are not as strong with trump as they were a couple months ago. And weve seen this kind of movie before that after some tough times in 2020 or the covid handling in the 2020 election that some republicans drifted away from trump, but then came back home in the very end. Despite all the good news, there is plenty of them that the erosion from trump, that he has that capability from now. And one more thing, mark. One of the questions, have you made up your mind . Will not change vote. 71 might had change vote. How significant is it that 71 of those surveyed said they will not change their mind . Yeah. So jonathan, you know, the number back when we asked this poll a few months ago, that question a few months ago. It was at 26 who said they might change their mind. Now its 11 . Its the nature of getting closer to election day. But the other component is how this is the Change Rate with Kamala Harris at the top of the Ticket VersesJoe Biden. We really did see a squishy middle with a lot of voters saying i cant decide. I want to wait for a bit. All of a sudden with harris at the top of the ticket, not only is the share of that third Party Vote gotten smaller, but we are seeing in our poll fewer people have said hey, i still might change my mind. It is significant that a lot more people are locked in their Vote Choice two months to go. Nbc news mark murray. Thank you as always for coming to the Sunday Show. All right, cornell, your Top Line thoughts of the nbc News Poll . Well, one, i want to say cautionary that polls arent predictors of the future. Theyre instructive, right . We know the Polling Numbers will move around because they are spending millions of dollars moving them around. Again, theyre not predictors of the future, but theyre instructive. When i look at this poll, a couple of things. First, lets take on our republican pollsters and the position on the erosion of trump. Trump is at 44 right now. Yeah, hes eroded. Hes eroded from where he is consistently at, which is roughly around 46 , 47 . So you do have soft republicans that are coming off of him. But what youre seeing with harris gains and these polls, they are not from republicans. Look at how she has gained among the African American voters. Look at how she has gained among the women. But the women, the Gender Gap right now has blossomed, right . If we see this kind of Ginger Gap that looks anything like what we saw in 2020, it is really problematic for republicans. So yes, you do have them pulling back. But where she is gaining, it is not just from the republicans pulling back from them, breaking towards her. You have a lot of groups that are underneath that, breaking to it, the democratic voters who we have talked about before many months ago who were holding back from biden. Other things that i think is interesting about this and it sort of connects to this, but will also connect to how she has gone from a net, which is historic. I have never seen it done in a short period of time. Especially, jonathan, it wasnt like they were spending 20, 30 Million when they were polling. Thats the people rallying around her. With all the staff they were creating, not necessarily her campaign. What youre seeing are voters of color being more enthusiastic and more motivated to vote. Two months from now, it was like a six or Sevenpoint Gap that has been erased in a very short period of time. So what that means in reality that youre going to see the robust turnout. I was really concerned if we would be able to reach anywhere close to what we would see in turnout in 2020. Right now, we will reach 2020 turnout if these numbers will continue. Maybe even surpass the 2020 turnout. You gave me a lot of data there. But you know, just something about how you would raise a good point. Trump is down to 44 when he has been around 46 to 48 , where they say that is the ceiling. I said it because it is. If there is erosion now among republicans, they could go back. But he will still just get to 48 . If im listening to you correctly, the fact that the base voters of the democratic party are enthusiastic in coming home. Can they get to what they will need . Yes because he wins by the subtraction. Look at what you have seen on election day. Even in the Battleground States where he doesnt get to the majority of wisconsin. He will get roughly around 48 to 47 , right . Hell need the third Party Voting to shrink his margin for victory. What they will also show, the third Party Consideration has also shrunk. Where they are consolidating, consolidating, so they need to be able to get above 47 to 48 had nationally in the battleground state, and that is hard for them to do. And one more question for you as we have 30 seconds where nay will come back and they had swap the polls, that people will get to the polls or their votes arent counted . If they were not concerned and they are seeing what were seeing right now, that she will have a better opportunity, more avenues to get to the majority and that is why they are pulling up all the roadblocks, jonathan. That is the thing. Breaking news this hour, the house will vote this week on the Funding Bill to keep them open through december 20. If they approve the measure, they would have averted the Government Shutdown on october 31. They do not include any part, to register to vote, which they would try to as they wanted and they rejected that plan last week. It is the most prudent forward. He goes on to write, shutting the government down less than 40 days from a fateful election would be an act of political malpractice. The bill also includes additional 231 Million with the Secret Service to help their immediate needs for campaign purposes. The republican aids told Nbc News that the bill could make it to the House Floor by wednesday. Coming up, theres positive news for harris in todays poll, but this race is still tight. We will be one on the margins. Black and latino voters will be vital to victory in november. And they join me next with a deeper look at what this poll will say about their support. Later, we are just getting word of a major Shakeup Tonight among the top Campaign Staff members for Mark Robinson. The republican candidate for North Carolina Governor over alleged posts on a porn site. All this and much more on a jam packed jaw dropping Sunday Show here on msnbc. Like when ye by Mills Frames created by millie bobby brown, only at americas best. Where else can you find frames this stylish at a price this good . Talk about a big statement. Ooh, those are nice. 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And you were here on set with me and im going to start with you. Just the News Poll that will say the support for harris now, its similar to what it was for biden in july. Is that what they are fighting through their own survey . Not at all. We saw her going into the convention where he was on top of the ticket, it was 47, 38. What we saw going into the convention, she was at 60 . 60. Trump was at 29. Rfk was at 7 . What we found so surprising about that poll was that we expected them to come home to the democratic side. We expected that. We didnt expect them to be the trump voters going on to Kamala Harris. We are seeing this as this was 2,000 voters in key Battleground States, so we are talking about North Carolina, pennsylvania, arizona, nevada. That was before the convention bump. Were seeing that shift even more among young voters who are enthusiastic. One of it was them trying to figure out who she was and they liked her back story. Now shes talking about policy. The biggest issue for them for the young voters, black and brown, between 18 to 29 is housing. So it was not a surprise that she came out with that Housing Policy of building affordable housing while giving them 25,000. That came out of research tha