Behind the numbers as. Mike johnson proposes a new plan to avoid a Government Shutdown but without one of trumps key demands. We will tell you the late developments. Come on, man, j. D. Vance responds to the Robinson Scandal with this Mind Bender with the allegations they are far out there, of course, but they are reality. I am jonathan capehart, this is the Sunday Show. 44 days until Election Day and Vice President harris is building on her lead over Donald Trump since the September 10th debate. A Brandnew Nbc NewsPoll Shows harris leading trump 4944 . Her 5 Point Advantage is within the margin of error. One Data Point reveals something historic. Harris favorability among registered voters is up 16 points since july. That double Digit Increase in popularity is the biggest for any Politician Nbc News has tracked in more than two decades. The Nbc Poll comes after a rash of new polls of the Battleground States showing growing support for the democratic nominee. Including one from quinniplac. 5 in pennsylvania and 50 in michigan plus 1. She does not just have the numbers in polls but outdoing trump in fundraiser. Harris raised 190 million, four times what trump pulled in. Her campaign ended the month with a whopping 235 Million in cash on hand. And harris continues to bring in highpowered endorsements such as the one she received today. From a bipartisan group of 700 national security leaders. Former secretaries of state in defense. Plus, more than a dozen retired four star retired general were among those that signed the letter calling the endorsement an act of patriotism. With the political winds at her back no wonder Vice President harris accepted Cnns Invitation to Debate Trump on october 23rd. Claiming the date was too late in the campaign, trump says he will not be there for a second round. At a Fund Raiser this afternoon in manhattan where she hauled in 27 million. The largest to date, harris needled trumps refusal to debate again telling the crowd my opponent seems to be looking for an excuse to avoid [ laughter ] looking to avoid when he should accept. It is a really bad excuse. Donald trump and Joe Biden debated twice in 2020. The second time, october 22nd. Joining me now, mark murray, senior news editor, pollster and democratic strategist. Mark, lets start with you and the biggest headlines out of the poll. Reporter you already marked on the numbers going from july to september by 16 points and as you mentioned historical nature in our poll is that we have not seen someone have that kind of jump since george w. Bush after the September 11 Terrorist attacks. Put that in our poll 35 Year History. What also strikes me harris is winning the change argument. When our poll asked who better represents change by 9 points voters say she does rather than trump. I always thought that interesting, some people still, voters grouchy about the Nations Direction and about the inflation that her being able to as the sitting Vice President to be the Change Candidate versus Donald Trump who is an expresident to me has been very, very key. The other thing is, what trump and our poll he does have advantages when it comes to the economy. The cost of living and the border. All down from when Joe Biden was at the top of the ticket. That also is significant. You know, there is another i am glad you brought it up. In the story that comes with the poll on msnbc. Com the Poll Shows some of Trumps Erosion has come from republicans who are not diehard supporters of the former president. Talk more about that. Jonathan, this is a caution that comes from the republican half of our polling team. Our Nbc News Poll is conducted by republican team as well as a democratic team. They come together and help us out the republican side, republican Opinion Strategy said that some of Trumps Erosion is coming from the soft, nonmaga republicans who are not as strong with trump as they were a couple months ago. His caution is that we have seen this kind of movie before. After some tough times remember after Access Hollywood in 2020 or covid handling in the 2020 election that some squishy republicans drifted away from trump but then came back home at the very end. That was some of the caution. Despite all of the good news in the poll for Harris And Plenty of them, that that erosion for trump, those are republicans that he has the capability of winning back two months from now. One more thing mark, one of the questions, have you made up your mind. Will not change vote, 71 , might change vote, 11 . How significant is it that 71 are not going to change their mind . Reporter so, jonathan, the number back when we asked this poll a few months ago, that question a few months ago it was at 26 who said they might end up changing their mind. Now it is 11 . Now, it will be one that is the nature of us getting closer and closer to Election Day. The other one is how this is the Change Rate with harris at the top of the ticket versus Joe Biden. We really did see a squishy middle of a lot of voters. I just can not decide. I want to wait for a bit. All of a sudden with harris at the top of the ticket not only is the share of the third Party Vote gotten smaller but we are seeing in the poll fewer people have said, hey, i might change my mind. It is significant. A lot more people are locked into the Vote Choice two months ago. Nbc news mark murray, thank you as always for coming to the Sunday Show. All right, cornel, your Top Line thoughts of the News Poll. One, cautionary, polls are not predictors they are instructive. We know the numbers will move around because they are spending millions, they are not predictors of the future. First, lets look at erosion of trump, trump is at 44 right now. Yes, he eroded from where he is consistently at Nbc News Polling around 46 to 47 . Soft republicans are coming off, but what you are seeing with harrisgains are not from republicans. Look at how she has gained among African American voters . Look how she gained among women. The women, the Gender Gap right now it has blossoms, right . If we see the Gender Gap like anything We Saw in 2020 it is a problem for republicans. So, yes, you do have republicans pulling back. But, her, where she is gaining is not just from republicans pulling back from him and breaking towards her you have a lot of groups underneath that are breaking to her, a lot of sort of the base democratic voters we talked about before many months ago who were holding back from biden. Other thing that i think is interesting about this. Connecting this. But it connects to how she has gone from a net, unfavorite to favorite. It is historic. Never done in a short period of time. Especially, jonathan, it was not like they were spending 20 or 30 million. That was grassroots movement. That was the people rallying around her. You saw it on Social Media with all of the memes. Not her campaign. Connected with that is this. In Nbcs Polling and other polling i am seeing, young voters, and voters of color more enthusiastic and motivated to vote. If you two months ago it was a 6 or 7 gap with black voters that is erased in a short period of time. What that means in reality is, i think, you will see robust turnout. Two months ago, three months ago i was concerned that we would be able to reach anywhere close to what We Saw. Right now i think we will reach 2020 turnout if the numbers continue and maybe even surpass the 2020 turnout. You gave me a lot of data there. [ laughter ] just when, something about, you raise a good point. Trump is down to 44 when he is usually is around 46 and 48 . A lot of people said that is trumps feeling. I said it. It is. All right, so if there is erosion now among republicans they could go back. He could still just get to 48 but if i am listening to if i am hearing you correctly the fact that the base voters of the democratic party are now super enthusiastic and coming home, would it be enough to go over his 48 and get to the 50 plus that she will need . Yes. Trump wins by subtraction. Dont be mad at me, be mad at math. Dont look at Polling Look at Election Day. He does not get to a majority in michigan, or a majority in pennsylvania or in wisconsin. He gets roughly around 48 , 47 . He needs third Party Voting to shrink his margin for victory. What this Poll Shows and other polls show, that the third party, the third Party Consideration has shrunk. He has to be able to get above 47, 48 in the Battleground States that is hard for him to do. One more question for you. We got 30 seconds. [ laughter ] the base comes back, they swamp the polls, but how concerned are you about some of the Voter Surpression saying people get to the poll and they can not vote or their votes are not counted if they were not concerned and they were not seeing what we are seeing now, she has a more probable and better opportunity, more avenues to get to a majority than he does. That is why they are putting up the roadblocks. I think she will have the majority of the votes on Election Day. What happens after the election . That is the thing. That is the thing. Yes, that is the thing. Thank you very much for coming back to the Sunday Show. Thank you for having me. Breaking news this hour. House speaker Mike Johnson just announced the house will vote this week on a three Month Stop GapFunding Bill to keep the federal government open through December 20th if congress approves the measure it will avert a shutdown. The new plan does not include any parts of the save Act Legislation requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote that johnson tried to link to a six month continuing resolution as Donald Trump wanted. The house rejected that plan last week. Speaker johnson wrote in a letter to Congress Quote this is not the solution any of us prefer it is the most prudent path forward under the present circumstances. He goes on to write Quote Shutting the government down less than 40 days from a fateful election would be an act of political malpractice. The bill includes an additional 231 Million for the Secret Service to help their needs for campaign purposes. Republican aides told Nbc News that the bill could make it to the House Floor by wednesday. Coming up. There is positive news for Vice President harris in todays poll. This race is still tight. We will be one on the margins, black and latino voters will be vital. We will have a deeper look at what the poll says about their support. All right later, just getting word of a major shake up among the top Campaign Staff members for Mark Robinson. The candidates over alleged posts on our porn site. All of this and much more on a jampacked jawdropping Sunday Show here on msnbc a jampacked jawdropping Sunday Show here on msnbc but im staying focused. And doing more to prevent recurrence. Verzenio is specifically for hrpositive, her2negative, nodepositive early Breast Cancer with a high chance of returning, as determined by your doctor when added to Hormone Therapy. Verzenio reduces the risk of recurrence versus Hormone Therapy alone. Diarrhea is common, may be severe, or cause dehydration or infection. At the first sign, call your doctor, start an antidiarrheal, and drink fluids. Before taking verzenio, tell your doctor about any fever, chills, or other signs of infection. Verzenio may cause low white Blood Cell counts, which may cause serious infection that can lead to death. Lifethreatening Lung Inflammation can occur. Tell your doctor about any new or worsening trouble breathing, cough, or Chest Pain. Serious Liver Problems can happen. Symptoms include fatigue, appetite loss, stomach pain, and bleeding or bruising. Blood clots that can lead to death have occurred. Tell your doctor if you have Pain Or Swelling in your arms or legs, shortness of breath, Chest Pain and rapid Breathing Or Heart rate, or if you are nursing, pregnant, or plan to be. Im focusing on what counts. Talk to your doctor about reducing your risk. Sometimes Jonah Wrestles with falling asleep. So he takes zzzquil. The worlds 1 sleep aid brand. And wakes up feeling like himself. Get the rest to be your best with nonhabit forming zzzquil. [suspenseful music] trains. [whoosh] trains that use the power of Dell Ai and intel. Clearing the way, [rumble] [whoosh] so you arrive exactly where you belong. I still love to surf, snowboard, and, of course, skate. So, i take Qunol Magnesium to support my Muscle And Bone health. Qunols extra strength, high Absorption Magnesium helps me get the full benefits of magnesium. Qunol, the brand i trust. Ahh, yellow didnt pass the Tissue Test . Buckle up whoa Theres Toothpaste white, and theres crest 3dwhitestrips white. Whitens like a 400 Dollar professional treatment. Pilot prepare for nonstop smiles. Crest. Craig here pays too much for verizon wireless. So he sublet half his real Estate Office to a pet shop. Theres a smarter way to save. Comcast business mobile. You could save up to an incredible 70 on your wireless bill. So you dont have to compromise. Powering smarter savings. Powering possibilities. Switch to comcast Busines Internet and mobie and find out how to get te latest 5g Phone on s with a qualifying tradei. Dont wait call, click or visit an xfinity store today. Up and down the ballot in november and the new News Poll has good news, Hair Sis up from july when biden was atop the ticket and had a 57 advantage. Among latino, harris leading trump, 54 to 35 . A 19 point margin. Which is similar to the Margin Biden had over trump in july. Joining me now, cliff albright, Cofounder And Director of the black voters matter fund. And President And Ceo of Border Latino and msnbc contributor. Thank you for being here. Maria you are onset with me. I am going to start with you. Just, Nbc New