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"the beat" with ari melber starts right now. hi, ari. happy friday. >> happy friday. thanks, nicole. welcome to "the beat." i'm ari melber. i'm joining you on this friday, june 28th, a day that marks a major shift in this presidential race. it's something you can basically feel and that many felt in their core. the emotion hitting probably before the logic or any intellectual observations, even as president biden first walked out to the stage. at this debate which his campaign pushed for. earlier than ever. and then delivered a performance that has, for now, up ended this race and done so so swiftly the discriminations had begun long before he and trump walked off that very stage. this is a debate that is certainly memorable but not in a very happy way. it seems to be another in a series of shared american experiences and memories that feel more infamous than famous, more traumatic than cathartic. so tonight together with you right now as we're still within these first 24 hours of that face-off we are going to take stock with the evidence trying to look at the significance and the fallout and the actual real possibilities. we're not going to devolve into or take too much time with the fantasy screen play scenarios because while there is talk of screen play style solutions, what matters more for what all of this says about what we're going to do is what's possible. indeed, the screen play talk, the fantasy talk may tell you more about reactions of the democratic party. it may matter in that sense, but not in the screen plays coming true. what is true and what we've seen in this short period between the debate and in these next few weeks of the two party conventions is that we have a campaign going on and it is a campaign where the nominees have been chosen. today you had a clear indication that against this backdrop, joe biden knows that he fell down at this debate because he referred to getting knocked down and how to get back up while speaking in north carolina. >> when you get knocked down, you get back up. i don't walk as easy as i used to. i don't speak as smoothly as i used to, but i know what i do know. i know how to tell the truth! i give you my word as a biden, i wouldn't be running again if i didn't believe with all my heart and soul, i can do this job. >> so, first, biden knows how he did and how it was viewed. he just referred to it. he is the one using the analogy of being knocked to the ground. and, second, president biden seeing the same coverage and headlines and, yes, palpable concern that everyone else who's paying attention is seeing, he is right now today shutting down any talk of a change in this nomination that he already won reiterating he's running with his full belief that he's up to the job. biden's campaign using today's appearance to try to show that in a very real way, that whatever people saw last night, he's out there. he's busy, he's energized, they say, and he's up to the job. they are arguing while the debate started out poorly, they don't even dispute that, they point to the fact that over time he did get in some decent lines. >> the only person on this stage that's a convicted felon is the man i'm looking at right now. >> when he taukts about a convicted felon, his son is a convicted felon. >> he was standing with a four star general. he said i don't want to go in there because they're a bunch of losers and suckers. you're the sucker, you're the losers. >> he made up the suckers and losers. he should apologize to me right now. >> you have the morals of an alli cat. >> i didn't have sex with a porn star. >> will you accept the results of the election yes or no, place? >> if it's a fair and legal and good election, absolutely. >> i doubt whether you'll accept it because you're such a whiner. the idea if you lose again you accept anything. you can't stand loss. something snapped new when you lost the last time. >> there were exchanges like that. and yet that's not what drives the headlines today. by the way, it does say something when the threats of a failed coup leader and these exchanges about porn stars are not even the top take aways. instead, the debate driving fresh questions about president biden's competence to do the job. the reason for that is how joe biden sounded and how he looked. you can say, yes, that's the optics part, but the reason for that is also how at times the logic and coherence of what he was expressing was in doubt, and that may leave a lasting impression. >> and i'm going to continue to move until we get to total ban on the -- the total initiative relative to what we can do with more border patrol and more asylum officers. this guy told ukraine -- told trump, do whatever you want. look, there are so many young women, including the young woman who was just murdered, he went to the funeral. with the covid -- excuse me, with dealing with everything we have to do with -- look, if we finally beat medicare -- >> now, those moments read as more than verbal gaffes. if you happen to watch any of the rampup coverage before this debate, before anyone knew how it would go, you probably heard the references to the high stakes. debates are the most important 90 minutes in any year-long campaign. on this program we drew on history and evidence for how debates are those rare moments that reach voters who may tune out months of other campaign business. and what those voters saw and what prompted even long-time democratic biden defenders to muse about was the rough parts of this debate. musing about the once unthinkable. the a.p. reports biden's uneven performance, particularly early in the debate, crystalized the concerns of many americans that, at 81, he is too old to serve as president. it sparked a fresh set of calls for the democrat to step aside. "new york times" calling it a halting and disjointed performance which prompted a wave of panic among democrats and reopened discussion of whether he should be the no, ma'am that he at all, end quote. and nowadays people don't always watch an entire debate. heck, people don't always finish the articles that whiz around online, but today people are seeing the headlines, even in quick snippets, however they get their news, online, social media, the clips. the headlines were as tough as those quotes. a fumbling performance by a halting president, a panicking party. "the wall street journal" and the "l.a. times" openly speculating about replacing biden. a democratic insider proclaiming he is, quote, toast. this is not the first time they have strong reactions in public anxiety. not the first time joe biden has been counted out. again, following the evidence tonight, this is measurably wider and deeper than some of those other moments. we checked. if you look out in swing states you see some pretty rough local headlines. one of the largest papers in the key state of nevada, everything that was discussed, all the policies, all the exchanges, their headline for their readers was biden shows his age. so that's out there. biden's problems also distracted away from trump's huge and outrageous lies and claims last night. some other papers around the country i want to tell you did hit both candidates. detroit news talked about how they logged insults in pennsylvania, key state. you have headlines about them trading barbs. in colorado there was a comparison of biden's fumbles to the indication of trump's falsehoods and you can be the judge of whether you'd rather have an occasional fumble or a serial liar. now any reliable gauge of how this affects millions of voteers, if it affects them at all, will take some time. so you have to keep that in mind with all the snap reactions, but the snap poll, which i wouldn't say are super reliable, do strerge something. kind of an instant take and the take was overwhelmingly the view you won. to get to 67%, that includes a lot of people statistically who didn't vote for trump, who didn't plan to vote for him who aren't republicans saying he won. anecdotal interviews have captured a flavor from last night as people felt disappointment with both candidates and, thus, with the current choice. >> felt terrible for biden. i mean, that was really sad. >> i thought he stumbled. you know, it happens. i thought trump was unhinged for 90 straight minutes. >> i was so disappointed in biden. he was hoarse. he was pale. he looked really frail. and trump just lied through his teeth the entire zbliem double frustrated. >> how about you? >> double cringe. >> trump did his litany of lies and biden was a disappointment. >> we have two candidates that i am embarrassed to say are running for president. >> we're doomed. >> doom and laughing through the concern. the big watch parties are also a big tradition. last night we do have examples where biden supporters were watching the debate and looking quite despondent as it went on grinding forward. you can see some of that here. these are not actors, this is not pundantry, there is where they have photo journalists watching people watching the debate and you tend to get a real-time indication. we also have footage from the trump watch parties, celebratory, excited, feeling like they really got the face-off they wanted. now then, there is that interplay between an event, in this case the debate, and its image, its view, its brand as they say. it's politics. reactions, optics, pictures in people's heads where it matters. the picture was not polarized, two different americans, earth one, earth two. there was almost a uniform concern that biden materially hurt his chances, exposed vulnerability on the thing that a lot of people worry about him. it's a reaction that ranged from an understandable evidence-based concern to outright televised panic. >> i do think people feel like that we are confronting a crisis. >> one thing that mattered more than anything else tonight, that was joe biden's demeanor. >> a def con. >> from the moment he opened his mouth, i think america looked and said, this man should not be re-elected. >> i think the panic had set in. there were going to be discussions about whether he should continue. >> there are three years apart. they seemed about 30 years apart tonight. >> we had to prove to american people he had the energy, stamina and he did not do that. >> tragically did not rise to the occasion. >> it's not just panic, it's pain. >> panic and pain. if biden does lose november, lose that election, quote, history will record it took just ten minutes to destroy a presidency. now there are democrats who also question whether biden should remain on the ticket. there is no mechanism to force a change of the nominee, to force a change of who's on the ticket from the outside. joe biden won the race under the rules. he has the delegates. the there's also no precedent in history for a change this late. no incumbent has dropped out. the only way biden will not be the nominee and on the november ballot is if he decides to break that precedent and drop out. he has not been open to that and he ruled it out again today. if joe biden did abdicate the nomination, that would hand a vacancy and a quite complex rushed political problem to his party and in a sense to the country. the there's no time nor state mechanisms to hold rushed primaries. there's no path for how to pick a replacement. a replacement wouldn't have a mandate from past primary state wins or the seasoning that comes from running for years, which is how we typically do it in this country. if there were no agreement reached, it's not clear an agreement could be reached quickly given what we're talking about even if, hypothetically, the person who said today he's not dropping out did drop out, there would be a battle that could stretch into the convention or later. i told you we would deal in evidence tonight, let me show you the actual calendar. next month donald trump who's been convicted of a felony in new york following that verdict he reached in the hush money trial. a few days later you have the republican convention. in the following month you have the democratic convention. that's a week in july and august of those two conventions and legally, according to the rules, august would be the very last time that the party is cons is he crating what it already picked, the delegate clinching of the nomination by president biden. september is the second scheduled presidential debate. that is on the books. we will see what the candidates do. and when early voting begins. if you are talking about changing something, it needs to be well in advance of when ballots are printed, sent and cast. you don't want to be in court arguing that a vote for democrat x should be counted as a vote for democrat y. by october you get the early voting in the swing states which tend to divide these. this calendar is a reality. democratic rules are a reality. bide dep's debate performance is a reality. biden's vow made again today to finish this race is a reality. any plan, debate, clash, orphan is a si involving other different candidates would have to face those realities, so what can i tell you? you may have heard other things. you may hear chatter about other things. there's a lot of talk going on. if we are dealing in realities, my job is not to tell you realities that sound best or that are most popular or that might make you like or dislike the news, i'm just telling you the actual realities based on the work, fact checking, experts that we consult every day, this is one of those nights where people wonder how things work, what the realities are, here's the reality. it is measurably unlikely, not technically impossible, who can say what's possible? but measurably unlikely that you would have a change in the democratic party nominee? and all of this that i'm telling you is pretty well known. you don't need a weather man to know which way the wind blows, and you probably don't need an anchorman to remind you of these things i just mentioned because if you follow the news or politics you know all of this. you know the primaries are over. you know we had the delegate convention and now you know today he reiterated that even well aware of the views of the debate performance. you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. the political winds are blowing against president biden today and he already won the nomination so under the rules he is the only person who can release and abdicate his nomination. the debate may have changed a lot today, tomorrow, next week, even next month, but it has not changed the core choice, which we know so many in our country and our nation revile, much as they revile congress, the supreme court and other things. here's the choice. it is between an incumbent who does face real questions over his professional competence and a challenger who is a failed coup leader, convicted felon facing real questions over his ethical competence. now if lies, coups or crimes were a degenerative ailment, donald trump might have had a much harder time last night on the optics, but objections to this rough set of choices are unlikely to change the choices, to change the ballots being printed in reality. that's why today might be very well the worst day the democrats have had of the biden presidency as they openly admit they don't like their choice, like so many americans, and they are stuck with it, which joe biden reiterated today. the party's leaders know only biden could change this plan and he says he's not doing that, so with the choice made, they are still dealing with and thus publicly backing what i'm telling you is the reality. >> i'll be a big supporter of president biden. he's been a great president. >> on substance there is absolutely nothing to keep him from doing what he's doing. on style, joe biden is not a show horse. joe biden is a workhorse and has continued to do the work and continued to talk to people about the work you are doing. >> we will deal with these realities in america tonight with two very special guests after our shortest break. we are all back with you in 90 seconds. as a police administrator. i oversee approximately 20 people and my memory just has to be sharp. and i realized, my memory was just changing. i did my own research and i decided to give prevagen a try. my memory became much sharper. i remembered more! i've been taking prevagen for four years now. it's a life-changer. prevagen. at stores everywhere without a prescription. mr. president, how did you perform tonight? >> i think we did well. >> do you have any concerns about your performance? >> no. it's hard to debate a liar. "new york times" said he lied 26 times, big lies. >> president biden speaking around midnight at waffle house after the debate. i'm joined now by washington post reporter jackie alamany, and jake almandy. chey, i walked through the measurable realities and the democratic rules and calendar. we come to you because you have experience but, and i don't mean to over flatter you on this big day in america, but you spin and lie a little less than some other political operatives so in that spirit what can you say truthfully about the performance of joe biden who i know is someone you've supported in the past and what can you tell people about how it works? could he really just easily be removed from the ticket? >> well, let me first of all do the second one, which is whether he could be removed from the ticket. let's put that to a rest. that is a fantasy. joe biden will be the nominee of the democratic party and that will be the case unless joe biden were for some reason, for which there is no evidence, there is no indication decides he no longer wants to be the nominee of the party. so it is extremely unlikely that the nominee of the democratic party will be anyone other than joe biden. there is simply no mechanism for that. all the delegates to the convention have been selected and they are pledged to vote for joe biden. and that will be the case as long as joe biden wants it. as far as the first question, i'm not going to lie. it was a really bad night. it was an extremely bad night for joe biden and the democratic party. quite frankly, joe biden has to be better. i could say oh, it's only one night, the campaign moves on, we're going to talk about choice, reproductive rights, knock on every door in america. that's all true. that's all going to happen but the candidate has to be better. there is no substitute in american politics for candidate performance and joe biden simply must be better than he was last night going forward. >> jackie, the biden campaign pushed for this early. they wanted to face down what was widely discussed as an issue that doesn't just playing them on the right or in certain places but even among their coalition. 59%, i'll put that up, 59% of adults before the debate said they were not just concerned but the higher measure, very concerned about his age. how does that number play into what's happening today? >> i mean, this has always been joe biden's weakness, something that has been the topic of conversation. his style over the substance for the past year, even longer. he did little to allay people's concerns. we all know that. every single pundant who went on tv last night either formally of the biden administration, former obama people, former biden campaign people didn't do him any favors by taking their panic attack straight to national television in those moments right after that debate last night. it's clear that joe biden has a problem here. you don't need me to tell you that on top of all of the other voices, but i think what has been really interesting to watch is the way the rest of the party has been so reactive to this. we saw this again last night. we saw it on capitol hill this morning, although there were some voices out there who were saying that when you're p