i'm chris jansing live in atlanta. for a presidential debate like no other, two men burdened by age and animosity trying to win over millions of americans fed up with politicians and politics in general, and joe biden and donald trump in particular. so today, in our special coverage, we'll dive into whether 90 minutes in june can change the next four years for this country. plus, with tens of millions of americans tuning in, could a single death be a game changer? and finally, what is the biggest x-factor isn't a person but a muted microphone? the new rules designed to minimize the chaos that could determine who comes out on top. a lot to get to. we start with the two men. two very different candidates who really don't like or respect each other, clashing in what will be an epic presidential debate. joe biden and donald trump coming face to face for the first time in four years and facing a nation that doesn't like either of them much either. their monumental task, to convince skeptical, even angry voters that they are the one to change the trajectory of the nation. we're expecting president biden to arrive in the next hour or so, coming straight from camp david where he's been prepping for the last week. former president trump is expected to get here later in the day. he said he'll rely on his experience in the campaign trail to get him through the debate. although the biden campaign believes he's been preparing more than he lets on. i want to bring in vaughn hilliard and gabe gutierrez. the former chief spokesperson for vice president harris and co-host of the weekend here on msnbc. with me onset, tim miller, host of the bulwark podcast and former communications director for gelabale bush 2016, and jonathan, politico white house bureau chief and host of msnbc's "way too early." both are msnbc political analysts. what a great lineup. i'll start with donald trump. what's the latest on him and his strategy going into tonight? >> these two men are in different places than we were four years ago. at that time in the 2020 debates, it was joe biden who was able to use four years of the trump administration in his record to jump off of. this go-around, it is the opposite. it is donald trump who has been out of office, who will attempt to look at the biden administration's record. he is going to make the case that if he had been in the white house during these four years, that there would have been no invasion of ukraine. that hamas would have not attacked israel. the difficult part for president biden is that a lot of these statements that donald trump tends to make are not disprovable statements. it is difficult to go and push back against those assertions. yet, donald trump, you should also expect to hit on the economy. and for the millions of americans that will be tuning in tonight, there is an undisputed fact that prices around the country have increased over the last years. there is also a housing and rental cost crisis in this country as well. this is a moment here for donald trump to try to use the last four years and try to harken back the american public's minds of where they were perhaps before the covid pandemic. and for donald trump, of course, the last four years, he has been muddied with four criminal indictments, a trial that led to 34 felony convictions, and also, the reality that he was found to have sexually aabused e. jean carroll and he is liable for repeated financial fraud through the trump organization and fined $350 million. for donald trump, his focus will consistently be on trying to contrast what a trump administration would look like versus a second biden administration. >> so gabe, we're getting a preview of what the president is expected to focus on because he's put out new videos from his campaign. what can you tell us about those? >> look, the biden campaign has been saying now for several months that it wants to show off his contrast between former president trump and president biden. and president biden has been prepping for this over the last week or so at camp david, as you mentioned, holding these mock debates. as you said, the biden campaign this morning releasing a couple new videos. it shows the robust rapid response organization that they're really trying to highlight here, they want to fact check donald trump in real-time. just this morning, when that supreme court ruling came down, they put out a video talking about reproductive rights. one of the things they really want to hit on over and over again in tonight's debate. another video they released, one that they're calling unfit. and they're highlighting videos from former aides to former president trump talking about how dangerous a second trump administration would be. let's take a listen. >> dangerous. >> threat to democracy. >> cannot in good conscience endorse donald trump. >> take an oath to a dictator. we don't take an oath to a want a be dictator. >> this man is unfit to be president. a second term would be more dangerous than the first. >> and you hear those aides calling former president trump a dictator. we expect president biden to cast former president trump as a convicted felon. something he's been saying more and more often on the campaign trail. and also, the biden campaign trying to drum up interest across the country, seeing this as a game changer in this race, where more people are tuning in. they're touting that they have watch parties scheduled in every state to take the president's message to the voters that might be skeptical. especially in some of the battleground states. >> thank you. much appreciated. okay. back here to where there's no spin. politico put it this way. the highest stakes hate watch of any modern presidential campaign, if folks texting me is any indication, there is some truth to that. what will it take to break through to the haters, the undecideds, the disgusteds. >> polls show americans are not very happy with the choice. that's why the biden campaign's thinking was to have a debate. like it or not, this is your choice. it is a versus b. the president's job to say, look, i remind you of what four years of what donald trump was about. and another four years would be that much worse. yes. they'll be watching. there are certainly some democrats who have fallen in love with joe biden. he'll try to win them back. there's a thin sliver of undecideds. they have not formed impressions, as hard as it is to believe, and that points to the challenge. this race is so static. trump with consistent but narrow leads in most battleground leads with a little momentum for biden of late. for the biden team, it is to reach into americans' living rooms and say this is what is at stake here. they're trying to say high stakes for the future of the country. >> not only do the voters not like either of these guys for the most part. they really don't like each other. if you go back four years, that was the last time. october 2020 in another debate that they were in the same room. that tradition of the outgoing president welcoming the incoming president, even if you're the incumbent happened before. it happened with jimmy carter. it happened with george h.w. bush. they welcomed the guy who beat them to the white house. there you see the pictures there. that did not happen. donald trump did not go to the inauguration. against that back drop, what will we see tonight? >> there is a lot of hate. hate on the stage and hate in the crowd. president obama was there, also, we should add when donald trump won. and hillary clinton showed up to donald trump's inauguration. george bush went to donald trump's inauguration after he trashed them. so there is a category difference here. not only did trump try to overthrow the government. after he failed at that, i think that underscores the animosity but also is an attack opportunity for joe biden. you don't care about democracy. you attacked our democracy. you don't care about police. you say you do. but the capitol police that were there that day, some died. some were attacked. you never called them. and you're a sore loser. and nobody likes a sore loser. i think that if joe biden can effectively take the legitimate reasons why there is animosity and turn them into an attack line, i think that could be useful for him. as we talk about the hate and the haters, when you hear from the double haters, like, they do hate. hate is right for donald trump. joe biden is kind of like, eh! they're not sure he's up for it. if joe biden can remind people that he's up for it, i think it could be a good game tonight. >> i want to ask but the other big story. the supreme court decision on abortion. the justices allowing emergency abortions to continue to be performed but only for now after dismissing the state's challenge to the federal law. the biden campaign is already hammering away on this issue, releasing a new add. >> i was around 11 weeks when i had a miscarriage. the pain was excruciating. i was turned away from two emergency rooms. that was a direct result of donald trump overturning roe v. wade. >> simone, how does joe biden effectively lean into that issue tonight? >> talking about the people's stories and describing what it means. when the issue of abortion come up, it will come up. if it is only talked about in these very bureaucratic term, that's not what will speak to the people watching at home. when you are prepping for a debate, special lay presidential debate, the biggest thing, this is when i was in president biden's debate cabinet when he was candidate biden, find opportunities to turn through the camera. cut through the noise of the opponent standing next to you. look directly into the camera and speak to the american people. i think this particular issue will be one of those. this particular issue in idaho, before the supreme court's ruling, in idaho, women were not able to get an abortion if they needed one, if they showed up in an emergency room if they were pregnant and needed it to save their life. if they needed it now, that's something the president has to speak to in the debate stage. and donald trump, i would be interested to see if he says it is health care. that could be a moment for joe biden to take it directly to the american people and transcend past the cameras and jake and dana. >> it's interesting. . you reported today that there is a plan for joe biden to try to get under donald trump's skin. and i'm wondering, do you do it with abortion, calling him on all the flip-flops and taking credit multiple times, including recently, for the overturning of roe v. wade. do you go after him for not winning 2020? how does he get under his skin? >> all the above and then some. i think we'll see a pretty aggressive president biden on a couple of issues. abortion for sure. we've noticed vice president harris using trump-abortion bans as a phrase. he'll talk about defending democracy at home and abroad saying trump sided with putin but also sided with the rioters who stormed the capitol on january 6th. we'll hear him talk about the 2020 election. potentially asking for the moderators, hey, who won in 2020? which not only points out that he's a loser but likely have trump repeat big lie to the national television audience. there's chatter from the trump campaign that he will come in more disciplined. he'll be calmer. we've seen him do that for small bursts in the past. the thought is from the president and his team, try to knock him off that. provoke the real donald trump. the donald trump we see every day at a rally. that sort of more chaotic donald trump will not play well with the viewers who are still going back and forth between the two candidates. >> for all the campaigns all of us have been a part of, we've never been here at a debate this early by months. strategically, having it this early, the mic cut. nobody in the audience. does it favor one or the other? >> i think the early side favors biden for the reasons he pointed out. i think it was important for biden to clarify, this is a two-person race. >> have the voters gotten that message? >> i think they're hoping tonight is the way to get them that message. biden is really struggling. even with people who are not paying attention, he's hoping this will focus the mind a little bit. i have to say, i think the mic-cut thing probably helps trump a bit. i'm unsure which campaign was pushing for that. it benefits biden if trump seems like a crazy person. biden's best moments in the 2020 debate was when he snapped back at trump for continuing to interrupt him. so i don't know why they would help keep trump in a cage. i think that marginally helps trump tonight. >> i was looking at the "wall street journal." joe biden has been in more than 30 presidential-level debates in his lifetime. trump has engaged in roughly half that many. you normally look at that and say, oh, more experience, better off. sl there any such thing when it comes to the this making a difference? >> biden has come out ahead in both. first, much like the state of the union, trump can say biden is too old, too feeble. if he has a strong performance, he'll be able to quiet some of the chatter. at least for the time being. and i think that the other thing that plays tonight, barack obama struggled against mitt romney. the president is not used to being challenged. and they didn't have to go through a primary process, they're rusty. >> and they have a day job. >> they have a day job. they're busy. >> that may be true for biden even though he's been preparing. but the other person is ready to go. trump skimmed all the republican primaries and he hasn't sat for a contentious interview for years. >> the one that said news max was settled fairly. >> all right. jonathan, thank you. tim and simone, you're staying with me. tonight, rachel maddow leads the analysis of the presidential debate. watch tonight on msnbc at 7:00 p.m. and at 9:00 p.m. you can watch the debate right here. stay tuned for analysis and coverage all night long. in 90 seconds, brand new poll numbers showing how razor thin this is, making tonight's stakes even higher. steve kornacki standing by to break down how enthusiastic voters really are after this. c voters really are after this [street noise] [car door shuts] [paparazzi cameras] introducing, ned's plaque psoriasis. ned, ned, who are you wearing? 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(♪♪) live in the moment. ask your doctor about otezla. nothing dims my light like a migraine. with nurtec odt, i found relief. the only migraine medication that helps treat and prevent, all in one. to those with migraine, i see you. for the acute treatment of migraine with or without aura and the preventive treatment of episodic migraine in adults. don't take if allergic to nurtec odt. allergic reactions can occur, even days after using. most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. it's time we all shine. talk to a healthcare provider about nurtec odt from pfizer. we're back live in atlanta. three new polls in the last 24 hours shows little has changed over many months in the race for president which means tonight is a rare opportunity to shake up the race. is that realistic? can debates change the trajectory of an election? joe biden and donald trump stand before a nation that has changed dramatically since their last face-off in october of 2020. there's been an insurrection that threatened democracy. two wars started. one in ukraine. the other in gaza. a lingering pandemic roiled the economy. and the trial ended in the conviction of a former president. all of those things almost certain to be part of the driver of the debate tonight. msnbc's steve kornacki is at the big board. tim, i know you've been looking at past debates. you're looking at what they can tell us about voter enthusiasm this year. >> one thing that's interesting that everybody knows that jumps out right away is how unusual the timing of this debate is. obviously, the democratic republican conventions haven't even been held yet. these two candidates are not yet officially the nominees of their party. yet they're meeting in a debate, nationally televised on june 27th. basically, if you went back, 1960, of course, you had kennedy/nixon. they were the first debates of the television era. there was a gap. they picked up again in 1976. a four-year presence ever since. what you're looking at is the date of the first presidential debate in all the past elections. the earliest until this year was back in '76. gerald ford, jimmy carter. it was on september 23rd. so we are basically three months earlier than that right now. so what that does in terms of who is plugged in, who will watch this, late june, start of summer. it is kind of a big wild card. in terms of what we've seen, this is last time around. the first trump/biden debate, there were 73 million who watched that debate. that was in the fall. that was much closer to the election. that was also during covid. perhaps more people at home back then. not much else to do. it was 73.1 million. that was what you're seeing here. these are the three highest rated debates in history for the first debate of a general election. the lead-off debate which is what this is. you see the 2020 number. you see the clinton/trump debate in 2016. 84 million. reagan and carter. this was their only debate in 1988. it was held ten days before the election. so on the high end, these are the biggest audiences we've seen. how will tonight measure up? on the low end, here they are. the three least watched. you see the exciting electric clinton-dole race of 1996. that thing seemed like stuck with the 10-point clinton lead all race. not much of an audience for that one. bush and gore in 2000. mccain and obama. interesting to see where the audience fits in, given the range right there. in terms the back drop politically for biden, the incumbent heading into this debate. let's look here. you got biden as he average job approval rating coming into this debate. it stands now at 40.7%. what you see here, these are all the other modern incumbents. what their average rating was on the day of the first debate. you can see here. the three candidates, the three incumbents who lost, carter in 80. he was at 35.5%. george w. bush in '92. at 37.8%. donald trump, last time around. he was at 44.8%. so biden's number is below where trump's was four years ago. the rest of these incouple bentz all went on to win re-election. they had higher approval ratings. so that's where biden is. very perilous territory. we know that. the question for him, how big will the audience and will he make an impression on the audience that changes the numbers at all? >> steve kornacki, fascinating stuff. thank you. he's a numbers guy. let me throw another number at you. there's a new quinnipiac. a national poll. it shows trump with a slight chance. 49 to 45%. again, within the margin of error. we've seen it time and time again. and in the "new york times" race, both have broad number. can a debate change the trajectory of a race potentially? >> absolutely. romney didn't end up winning but the poll numbers changed dramatically in romney's favor and made the obama-romney race that had him winning wire to wire and then folks retrea