assange to sign a blockbuster plea deal. another big hearing in donald trump's classified documents case. how his lawyers are trying to get a raft of damning evidence thrown out. and a new view inside president biden's strategy for this week's debate against former president trump. how he's preparing to take on two trumps. we're also tracking deadly flooding in the midwest, straining dams and levees and causing thousands of evacuations with more rain on the way. good morning, thank you for joining us. it is 10:00 eastern. i'm ana cabrera reporting from new york. right now, wikileaks founder julian assange is on his way to a remote u.s.-controlled island in the pacific where he'll plead guilty to a conspiracy charge as part of a deal with the u.s. justice department. now, under this deal, as we understand it, assange will become a free man, ending a 14-year legal odyssey sparked when his organization posted nearly half a million classified military documents, one of the biggest leaks of classified material in u.s. history. nbc's josh lederman is tracking the story from london. also with us, former u.s. attorney barbara mcquade. what do we know about this deal and give us the ticktock of how this plays out today. >> what a remarkable change of fortune for julian assange, who just a few months ago, i was standing outside the high court in london where it appeared that he was on the verge of being extradited to the u.s. to face more than a dozen charges, potentially up to 175 years in u.s. prison, though he was likely to ultimately get less than that. but then back in march, the court ordered that he could have a full appeal to his extradition, and in the weeks since there have been apparently been very intense behind the scenes negotiations with the justice department for the plea deal that he is now entering, in which he will only plead guilty to one charge under the espionage act. he will be likely to be sentenced to 62 months, which is exactly the amount of time he's already spent in prison here in the uk as he awaited potential extradition. so that means he will get time served and essentially be a free man after these proceedings take place tomorrow in court. u.s. federal court as he's making his way back toward his home country of australia. >> josh, do we have any insight into why the u.s. agreed to this? is there a sense that maybe australia, great britain, and other countries wanted this to be over? >> well, the justice department isn't commenting on their thought process here, but it is true, the australian government has been very clear they feel this legal saga played on for far too long. many in australia have questioned whether the u.s. even had jurisdiction over julian assange. the fact that that british court had allowed him a full appeal to his extradition meant that just the legal process here in the uk was likely to go on for a whole lot longer before he could ever be extradited to the u.s. to face a jury there, and even if he were to do that, there was no guarantee he would be found guilty. it is possible the justice department decided they didn't want to see this legal saga continue for that many months longer and it would be best to try to get a plea deal at least with julian assange admitting guilt on that one charge under the espionage act. >> barbara, so many moving parts here, different countries, is this a done deal or could it still fall apart at the last moment? >> well, yes, the judge in the northern mariana islands still has to approve this deal. now, typically that happens if both sides are in agreement. and it meets all of the legal requirements, a judge will typically approve it. as we saw in the hunter biden plea, a judge has to be satisfied there has been a meeting of the minds and that all issues are resolved and once and a while, when a judge starts asking probing questions, plea deals can fall apart. but that's really quite rare and so i suspect that in a case of this magnitude, the parties fought through all of the details and it is most likely to go through. >> barbara, why do you think the doj made this deal and why now? does the punishment fit the crime if you consider the massive leak and chelsea manning's role in all of this, 35 years sentenced, didn't serve it all, but, still -- >> yeah, i think there are a number of different factors that prosecutors consider when deciding whether to resolve a case. and when you accept a guilty plea, it is not the same punishment that you would expect to get after conviction after trial. the government is giving up something, both sides give up something to reach a plea deal. but looking at all the factors here, one is uniformity with other sentences. chelsea manning served seven years as the person with the clearance. so i sentence of something less than seven years was probably likely for julian assange. if he were extradited to the united states, he no doubt would file a number of motions, challenging these charges. and that brings with it some concerns about press freedoms and first amendment issues that could set some bad precedent for the department. i think it also is valuable to have resolution with the certainty of conviction, and no possibility of a not guilty acquittal in this case. and there is also a risk that at trial the government would have to expose some of the very secrets it was seeking to protect in this case. and so i think when you consider all of those factors, this looks like a pretty good deal for both sides. >> josh, the white house put out a statement on this deal, let me read part of it, quoting, this was an independent decision made by the department of justice and there was no white house involvement in the plea deal decision. is this something the white house would typically be knowledgeable about due to all of the foreign diplomacy involved or can the doj pull this off, all on its own? >> as barbara knows better than anyone, the justice department doesn't have to ask anyone's permission to accept a plea deal. they can do that all on their own. i think it is fair to say in high profile extraditions like this, where there are potentially large political ramifications, possibly even policy consequences, that it would not be unusual for there to be some level of consultation or notification to the political wing of the government, to the white house, about something like this, that might be taking place. but it is notable that the white house is going out of its way to make clear, given how potentially explosive this resolution is that president biden was not the one who ultimately decided to free julian assange. >> and, barbara, let's not forget, separately, wikileaks published the hacked emails from the democratic national committee and hillary clinton's campaign back in 2016. that was a big deal, assange was never charged for alleged involvement in that leak. could that change? >> i don't think so. and i think that that's probably an important question for the judge to ask today, whether there is any additional exposure here. that's how the hunter biden deal fell apart when the judge started asking questions about could any additional charges be filed or does this resolve everything? it is common for the government to include a clause in the plea deal that says the government agrees not to charge the defendant with any criminal conduct of which it is currently aware. so, i would imagine that the hillary clinton and dnc emails is something that the parties discussed and agreed to resolve, solely based on the charges in this indictment, which were all about the defense department, wikileaks publication and theft through chelsea manning. >> it looks like we have conclusion here momentarily in a tale that has taken on so many twists and turns. thank you, both, for joining us. we're following more breaking news and a doubleheader in another donald trump classified documents, couple of hearings down in florida. next hour there will be a sealed session on materials protected by grand jury secrecy. and the defense will try to exclude key evidence found in the mar-a-lago search, such as the special counsel is providing here in these photos of those documents that were recovered by the fbi. nbc's ken dilanian is outside the courthouse in fort pierce, florida. also joining us, msnbc legal analyst and former federal prosecutor charles coleman. ken, walk us through the issues at play in today's hearings. >> reporter: hey, good morning, ana. as you said, the defense is trying to suppress evidence here, but by far the most important issue on the table today are the notes of recordings made by donald trump's lawyer evan corcoran that were obtained under what is known as the crime fraud privilege and a federal judge has already ruled on this issue, already ruled that those notes were admissible in this investigation and they provided a road map for this indictment. when you read the indictment and the classified documents case, you find references to these notes sprinkled throughout. and recall there was a moment in the indictment where corcoran described trump making a plucking motion as if to say he was removing documents from a group of documents that were requested by the federal government. the gist of those notes which came from recordings that he made into his iphone was evidence of obstruction of justice, evidence that donald trump was trying to conceal documents from the government, when they were seeking them, and at one point donald trump said wouldn't it be better if there were no documents, according to corcoran. so the defense is trying to get all that stuff knocked out of the case. if they succeed, it would be a huge blow to the prosecution. but, again, remember, a federal judge in washington already said that this stuff was admissible under the crime fraud exception, which means attorney client privilege can be pierced because the conversations were in furtherance of the crime. that is the big one at stake here today. >> charles, just to peel back the onion a little bit more. so a judge previously approved the search warrant prior to it being executed. so why would those materials involved in the search warrant be at issue? >> what they're trying to argue is basically the whole thing is faulty. they're trying to say the basis for the search warrant is faulty and therefore some of, if not all of the fruits of that search warrant should be thrown out. this is donald trump's attorneys trying to chip away at as much as they can of the evidence that prosecutors will ultimately have to present before a jury of donald trump's guilt of what he's been charged with. so, they may not necessarily believe inside the trump camp that they're going to be able to get all of this thrown out. but if they get some of it, or more of it, or most of it, or even a piece of it, they're in better shape than they are now. to pick up where ken left off, that's a big part of the argument, basically since this road map came from the crime fraud exception, the notes that were constructed by his attorney, what happens if you take that out? now the government doesn't have this indictment and it leaves the judge with a very different road map in terms of how she rules on the evidence that was recovered from this search warrant and that's the strategy here. >> it was significant evidence and information, this attorney provided to the case, right? and so evan corcoran, passing on his voice notes, basically said trump suggested that he lie or completely ignore a subpoena as it related to the mar-a-lago documents. if that can't be part of the case, how big of a blow is that to the prosecution? >> it is very significant. this was very much so a big part of how the prosecution put its indictment together and because of that, i think when you're talking about this, the question then becomes where do you establish the probable cause and the other things that are necessary in order to go through the search and get the documents that were maintained. now, let me be very candid in saying that the probable cause can very much so be established by the subpoenas that were sent, the different notices that donald trump and his unresponsiveness. very clear there. the issue that you have is the notion of intent. these notes that his attorney had and took from their conversations clearly displayed donald trump's intent on evaing the federal government and trying to get the documents back. that's a big part of their case there, they would have to figure out in terms of displaying either through the testimony of other witnesses or other things that are evidence that they have not let us know they have. the notes from his attorney are the most clear or they're the clearest and most unambiguous way of showing donald trump's intent. without them, prosecutors would have to find another way. >> this is the third day of hearings in as many days in this case. the gag order request is still not resolved and during yesterday's hearing on that, judge cannon butted heads with the special counsel's team is our reporting. tell us about this. >> reporter: the special counsel had a rough time in the gag order hearing yesterday. judge cannon asked a number of skeptical questions and at one point david harbaugh, from the prosecutors, a veteran anticorruption prosecutor, who really exasperated with the judge and got a little chippy and she told him to watch his tone and he later apologized. that was just kind of an example of how frustrated this special counsel's office is and frankly it is not clear that they made their case, it is a tough case to make. it is obvious that donald trump lied about what the fbi was authorized to do in terms of deadly force at mar-a-lago. it is much harder though to prove that those lies directly endanger fbi agents. that's a theoretical, a speculative argument and judge cannon made that point and appeared to indicate that she is not ready to order -- mr. trump to stop saying those things. >> charles, quickly if you will, what do you make of that apparent tension between the judge and the prosecution? >> i think that judges get into it with prosecutors all the time. you have to understand where the line is toed. i think the prosecutors are frustrated with what's been going on. and that's a big part of why i think you're seeing this sort of butting of the heads occur. at the end of the day, as a former prosecutor, i can tell you, you have to keep your cool, be prepared for the tense moments. but at the end of the day, you don't want to upset a judge so if you feel like you crossed the line, you need to do what the prosecutor in this case did, get yourself back on track and apologize. >> charles coleman and ken dilanian, thank you, gentlemen. still ahead, dangerous flooding in the midwest, living a critical dam at risk of imminent failure. and there is more rain in the forecast. plus, where t minus 48 hours now until the first presidential debate of 2024. this morning, new nbc news reporting on how the biden campaign is preparing. also ahead, a new legal block for efforts to forgive millions of student loans. what it means for americans waiting for relief. we're back in just 90 seconds. don't go anywhere. back in just . don't go anywhere. ck... now with skyrizi, i'm all in with clearer skin. ♪ things are getting clearer ♪ (♪♪) ♪ i feel free ♪ (♪♪) ♪ to bare my skin, yeah that's all me. ♪ ♪ nothing is everything ♪ (♪♪) with skyrizi, 3 out of 4 people achieved 90% clearer skin at 4 months. and most people were clearer even at 5 years. skyrizi is just 4 doses a year, after 2 starter doses. serious allergic reactions and an increased risk of infections or a lower ability to fight them may occur. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms, had a vaccine, or plan to. 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