Two phrases that are guaranteed to lock up the youth vote. Donald trump said at the debate, he wants both of them to stand instead of sit. Thats the status of our presidency. Standing is a feat of strength. I think we could learn a lot more watching them both try to get out of a bean bag chair. Thatd be a good one. As the president ial candidates prepare to debate next month, Donald TrumpsHush Money Trial, the criminal trial, resumes today in New York City. Well have expert legal analysis on the case so far and a preview of what could be the final week in court. Plus, well have some of the highlights from President Bidens Commencement Speech at Morehouse College, where he attempted to thread the needle on several issues connected to his reelection campaign. Also ahead, well recap a wild weekend at the Pga Championship with new details about the arrest of Scottie Scheffler. That was incredible. Well show you the dramatic final putt to win the major tournament. Good morning. Welcome to morning joe. Its monday, may 20th. With us, we have the host of Way Too Early, White House Bureau chief at politico, jonathan lemire. Former president of the council of foreign relations, Richard Haass. Columnist for the Washington Post, David Ignatius is with us. Former supreme alied commander of nato, Four Star Admiral james stavridis. Chief International Analyst for nbc news. We have this incredible panel because there is major Breaking News from overnight. Iranian state media is reporting that the nations president , ras rasy raisy, and the Foreign Minister died in a Helicopter Crash. Search teams arrived at what was originally called a hard landing and found in sign of life. According to a news outlet for the iranian government, seven other officials were on board at the time of the accident. The Associated Press sites iranian tv has given no cause for the collision, although weather could be involved. It was nearing azerbaijan when the Helicopter Crashed. Weather didnt allow search crews to work for hours. Raisy had been president since 2021. David, what is your thoughts . At a time of instability across the middle east, this adds one more element. It is unlikely to mean any sharp change in policy. The true leader is the Supreme Court who remains in charge, but he is 85. Raisy, the president , was widely seen as the most likely successor to him. This Creator A Succession Quandary for iran. In the immediate future, Muhammad Mukhbar will be the interim president. Elections will be 50 days from now. In theory, well have a new president , not likely to be different in terms of policy. This is a body that moves in step. As for the future, this is an interesting development. The Supreme Leaders son could be a candidate. One other interesting phenomenon here, even as iran has been deepening its confrontation with israel, firing Ballistic Missiles, over 200 drones in april, none of which were successful, it has been trying to open more of a dialogue with the United States. Last week, an Iranian ForeignMinistry Official met with our top middle east person in iran to talk about issues of mutual concern. At the time of the missile strike, the iranians made an effort to contact the u. S. Through the swiss embassy, exchanged messages, understand exactly who would do what. I think were heading into a period where, as was said, there will be no disruption in policy. Thinkcertainty in iran, in israel, almost an open contest for leadership of israel, and an american election. You couldnt have more of an unstable factor over the middle east at this dangerous time. Joe. Certainly, admiral, weve heard about the great dangers that weve been facing in the region, obviously since october 7th and certainly with iran. It is fascinating hearing what david said regarding the contacts with the swiss embassy. I heard the same thing after the killing of soleimani, and im sure you did, too. The iranians fired missiles at u. S. Targets and immediately told people in the region, please get back to the United States thats it. We had to show some force for domestic consumption. Of course, you had the United States warning iran backchannel about an imminent Terror Attack a few months ago. Things are not always as cut and dry as they appear. Id love for you to go through your experience in the region, iran directly or indirectly, and give us your read on where we go from here. The only thing i know for sure is the Vice President of the United States will not be going to tehran to attend this particular funeral. Theres certainly no love lost between our two countries. But i think, joe, you and david are right to highlight two aspects that jump out to me. Number one, the presidency of iran, which will have to be fill ed, is not the prize here. The current incumbent has cancer, mid 80s. Thatll come sooner rather than later. Id put my money on his son more than anybody else. But nobody knows the answer to that question, and that is going to drive a lot of internal maneuver and politics. Oh, by the way, if we think here in the United States were prone to conspiracy theory, certainly, iran, its populous, is prone to it, starved of actual information. Look for Conspiracy Theories that will pop up about who might have manufactured this. Was israel involved . Was the cia involved in this . Almost certainly no. Bad weather, probably bad maintenance, probably bad airmanship is what caused this. But the second big thing here, and, again, you eluded to it a moment ago, is that iran does not want this to explode into a wider regional war. This is the last time theyd want while in the midst of their version of Game Of Thrones here. Look for the iranians to send signals to the United States, potentially to other actors in the region. Theyre close in the arab world with qatar, relatively so. Look for them to signal, look, let us alone right now. We have to sort this out. Now is not the time for anyone to take advantage. Richard, following up on that, obviously, this president died at a time when hed been facing domestic unrest, also economically, iran has been struggling. We can look back over the past 10, 15 years and see that iran is divided. You sort of Have Red State iran, blue state iran, in that the urban center is far different than rural iran. This is a country divided, trying to figure out its way forward. It would seem to me the last thing theyd want to do is begin a regional war. Look, they have a lot on their plate, i agree. Ill say a few things. I think both the admiral and david got it exactly right. One is raisis legacy not real impressive, joe. It gets to what you were saying. What was it about . Repression. He leaves a more divided society and real economic mismanagement. The currency is much weaker and so forth. That is essentially what hes done. I think the fact he is out of the running because he is dead for the Supreme Leader is interesting because if it goes to his son, to khameneis son, it raises questions of hereditary processes here. The question is, does that detract from the legitimacy of the Supreme Leader . The death of the president has almost no impact in the short run because the president doesnt have a lot of authority over the things wed talk about on this show, National Security and so forth. Its more of a domestic role. The real question is what implications does it have for the longterm legitimacy of the regime . It gets to the splits within the society. My own guess, though, is this regime probably has, unfortunately, more Staying Power Continuity than any of us would like to see. Yeah. No doubt about that. David ignatius, though, following up, i think fascinating insight by richard when he is talking about how if being the Supreme Leader of iran is more hereditary, that further weakens, at least in the eyes of the region, the standing of religious leadership in iran, compared to iraq, who still really is seen as the supreme shiite leader and this sort of hereditary pass down would, i think, possibly even weaken irans ultimate influence in iraq. To me, raisi, the president now dead, was the symbol of a regime that, in many ways, is running out of gas. He was not a distinguished cleric. He wasnt somebody whose religious views were taken seriously. He was the enforcer. He was a judge. He was the person who when Ayatollah Khamenei wanted to clean up in the 80s, was a sign of being basically the Hanging Judge, said to have sent to the execution more than 1,000 people. He was the reliable servant of the revolution, but he didnt enhance or expand that revolution. During his time as president , we saw young iranians just in explosion of celebrating personal freedom, women taking off their head scarves, throwing them away, risking, at least for some weeks and months, being arrested. For a long time, the regime couldnt get that back under control. As a western diplomat said to me once, think of iran as being on a oneway street. That street is toward the end of the regime. How fast itll go down that street, hard to tell. It could be many, many years. Theyre still very powerful, but there is no sign of this regime rehabilitating itself in the eyes of its people. Raisi was not a charismatic person, and there is little likelihood the successors who come into place now will be any more so. White house, of course, carefully watching developments unfold here. It was about a 12hour or so search before these rescue crews found the helicopter, downed helicopter. No signs of life. Those i spoke to in the last 24 hours or so really concerned that iran would try to point the fingers elsewhere for this crash, namely at israel. Suggesting theyd rather push this conspiracy, that someone else did this, rather than accept fault that they couldnt protect their own president. That it was simply a crash. To this point, that has not happened in any real way. Doesnt mean, of course, that could not change in the days ahead. Particularly in an unstable region. Also, u. S. Officials tell me theyre watching what, if any, response there might be from irans proxy groups, hezbollah and the like, if they try to use this as an impetus to spark further violence at a time of war in gaza, at a time when the world is watching to see when the push into rafah might begin. At this point, relatively calm, but the helicopter was only recovered in the last few hours. U. S. Officials trying to speak to those in the region to get a sense of the stability there. Lets bring in chief Foreign CorrespondentRichard Engel and nbc news chief International Correspondent keir simmons. He is in the gulf region this morning. Richard, well start with you. Your analysis and are you hearing any reaction from the region . So weve already heard quite a bit of reaction from hezbollah, from other groups. They are not at this stage blaming israel, blaming the United States. Theyre expressing their condolences. And going back to the issue you were just talking about, the future of iran, what this means for the Supreme Leader. Theyre praising the Supreme Leader. Theyre praising the theocracy. Theyre saying our loyalty, yes, we express our condolences for the loss of this man, but our loyalty remains to the system of clerical rule in iran. I think thats what this death really highlights. Iran has a Succession Crisis right now. Its not that he was openly tapped to be the next Supreme Leader, but thats the way things were heading. Two names ever mentioned. Raisi, the president as the potential next Supreme Leader. The Supreme Leader himself is 85 years old right now. Raisi, who just died, only 63. If he had come to power, he would likely have been in power for two decades or so. His death is a profound moment. The other name that was ever mentioned is mojtaba, the son of the Supreme Leader. The fact that raisi died in a Helicopter Crash, in fog, at this stage, no evidence or really any accusations that there was other that foul play was a factor more than foul weather. But still, if the Supreme Leader now tries to appoint his son, or the people around him try to appoint his son after the previous president and the person who was going to get that job died in a Helicopter Crash, i think it would look suspicious. I think there is a Succession Crisis, and it think it has potentially an opportunity for the Security Establishment there, the revolutionary guard, to assert more and more control. Potentially this is a moment like Boris Yeltsin and putin. Yeltsin, no longer able to run the country, and you have someone from the Security Establishment, Intelligent Service rises up, takes over, and transforms the state. Well see if we head in that direction. Well be watching. Nbcs Richard Engel, thank you very much. David . I want to go, if we could, to keir simmons, who is in the gulf. Keir, i would ask you to help us understand what impact this death of an iranian president will have on regimes in the region immediately. How will they perceive it . What difference will it make for them as they think about an iran that, for most of them, is their biggest threat . Yeah, i mean, i think the way you guys have framed it this morning effectively, you know, add to the busying forces in the region right now, uncertainty in iran. Now, the first Vice President who is now taking over as president , he went to russia in october and did a deal, which then supplied russia with more weapons, more iranian weapons. In fact, President Putin today talking about what a great leader president raisi was. Xi of china talking about him as a friend. The partners of iran are out already sending their condolences. Other countries on the fence also sending concondolences. Many countries from the gulf of and the middle east sending messages, because you do in circumstances like this. I think were into the law of Unintended Consequences as far as what it means for irans Foreign Policy. Domestically, lets not forget, president raisi is the leader who presided over the crushing of protest in 2022, womens rights protests after the death of amini. Lets not forget, he was leading iran just last month, of course, when iran fired those missiles towards israel. Will there be changes in terms of the domestic or the Foreign Policy . Perhaps not. Then we just dont know. Its kind of, you know it really paints a picture of how quickly this region changes. This is all happening just as Jake Sullivan has just left saudi arabia and then israel, trying as best he can to push a program of stability, if you want to call it that, a proposal of stability, which we know involves what has been described as a mega deal with saudi arabia. A security deal, a Civil Nuclear deal, a trade deal, and, at the same time, normalization with israel and a twostate solution for the palestinians. Incredibly difficult to achieve. Gets harder and harder it seems as the politics of the region unfolds. Of course, because of the war in gaza. Very, very difficult because of the congressional politics there in the u. S. And the fact that an election is coming. Take the question of a Civil Nuclear deal with saudi arabia, thatd have to be passed through the house and the senate. Then we havent even mentioned the feud between benny gantz and netanyahu, spilling into the open 24 hours or so before all this happened. Now, were talking about iran. Thats why it is so difficult in this region, particularly right now. Nbcs keir simmons, thank you so much. Greatly appreciate it, as always. Admiral, keir actually set up what i was going to ask you. First of all, lets look at the three things that happened yesterday. Irans president an