this is alex wagner. >> happy second night of hanukkah you, you are celebrating a mine at home who are celebrating. thanks for joining me this hour. when you think of russian president vladimir putin, you probably think of him riding horseback shirtless or presiding over a large military parade. putin's public appearances are typically loud, highly choreographed displays of masculinity and strength. which is part of what made his announcement today so notable. today putin announced that he will be running for president again. there is no pomp and circumstance, just this video of a clearly staged impromptu moment where soldiers asked putin to run again and he agreed. that quietly puts putin in under contract to lead russia until past 2030. putin is effectively removed russia since 2000, and there's no doubt he will win the upcoming election if you remember the last russian election in 2018, putin had his main predator opposition leader alexei navalny buyer from running. and he won that election with a truly unbelievable 76% of the vote. putin has since put navalny in prison, where he remains to this day. earlier this year president xi jinping of china was similarly reelected to a third five year term. he won that election by 2900 and 52 to 0 vote. in the chinese national congress. it's abundantly clear that these men are dictators. their elections are anything but free and fair. last month a world watched his secretary of state antony blinken winced while president biden called president xi a dictator. that declaration will not make secretary blinken's job of negotiating with china any easier, but president biden told the truth anyway. meanwhile, we all know what former president trump thinks of dictators. >> the man who looks like a piece of granite. [laughter] he's a strong like granted. he strong. president xi jinping of china. he runs 1.4 billion people with an iron hand. president xi, smart, top of his game, president putin, smart, very smart people. >> in the last few days there has been just an onslaught of analysis and reporting previewing how donald trump and a potential second term could become a dictator himself. this is something you might think donald trump would want to disavow, what this is how he decided to answer the question posed to him by foxes sean hannity this week. >> under no circumstances, you are promising america tonight, you would never abuse power as retribution against anybody. >> except for day one. [applause] >> he says you're not gonna be a dictator are you? no, no, no other than day one. >> he's already saying he's gonna be dictator on day one. the stakes for the 2024 election could not be collier, and yet this week we saw a republican primary debate where rather than focusing on the elephant not in the room, donald trump, republican candidates chose to fight amongst themselves. republican leaders and party officials appear mostly content to stay silent. it seems increasingly likely that donald trump will be the gop's 2024 nominee. in that position, our electoral system itself gives trump a major advantage. new analysis from the washington post today shows that more than ever electoral college is set to destroy this next election. in 2016 hillary clinton won the popular vote but still lost the election. she would've won if just 80,000 people had voted differently in michigan and pennsylvania and wisconsin. in 2020 about 45,000 votes, in georgia, arizona, and wisconsin, should change the outcome of the entire race, even though joe biden won the popular vote by more than 7 million votes. this new analysis shows that compared to those races, the 2024 race will be even more lopsided. red states are getting red or, blue states are getting blue where, and swing states are getting decidedly less purple. by the 2024 election, we may be at a point where only 18% of americans live in a true battleground state. the majority of the voters in those states are already decided. democratic strategist joe to be told the washington post that the 2024 election is gonna come down to about 400,000 people in three or four states. 400,000 people in a country of over 330 million. given how radically different these two potential presidential candidates are, what does it take to win among this outrageously small group of voters, who still, even now, genuinely do not know who they are going to vote for? joining me now, jennifer palmieri, co-host of how to win 2024, the podcast, and for a white house communications director for president obama, jennifer palmieri, and michael steele, one of the incoming hope hosts of the weekend here on msnbc and of course former rnc chair. jen, michael steele, thank you so much for being here. jennifer palmieri, please explain to those of us who truly don't understand how anyone is undecided at this point. >> a lot of people have not thought about donald trump munch since he became the former president's united states. we all live and breathe we feel passionate about it but there was a good democracy court today which was run by democratic strategists stand greenberg, james -- . they did a poll that show that even among voters who supported joe biden in 2020, having a retrospective's, giving trump a higher approval rating retrospectively that they give joe biden right now. there is a lot of forgetting. amnesia, and also there's a lot of focus groups and polling were people doubted on trump's actually gonna be the nominee. we're just not focused on. and they do remember that for a one case redoing better pre-covid, and they remember that the war, the world seems to be a little calmer prefer covid in the trump years, but they don't, they just don't believe them trump is going to be the nominee and they are forgetting what a threat -- >> when that whole thing was. like >> what that whole thing was like and they are not yet, you know, really atlantic's series of articles about how don trump's second term would end democracy. so they're not reading the atlantic, the washington post, all the publications, the big mainstream flagship publications have pieces about the looming dictatorship of donald trump. it is not clearly resonating with republicans, and it may not be resonating with independent voters. i wonder what you saying, if there is some magical way in which those in the media are those concerned about the future of our democracy can better communicate with people who are not keying into the potential autocracy on the horizon. >> it's going to be a challenge, to be honest. very much to jennifer's point, voters are very particular about when they tune in. they've got other stuff going on. she's right, this close to it, we are vexed by it unconcerned in where using words that actually in some sense sound of foreign to a lot of voters out there. when you tell them that this race is gonna boil down to 400,000 people in three or four states are like what are you talking about? i haven't voted yet. what are you talking about? so there is that part of it so what you do is you pull the lands back. that's why i've always been concerned about national polls a year out from a presidential election. dictating the terms of engagement when voters aren't tuned in. they're not tuned in. so you've got to pull the lens back and look at that data to get some sense of, what are some of the threads that can be woven by the biden administration and his political team that will connect dots for voters around the bigger question of democracy, and tied at specifically to those polls that are showing that people are genuinely concerned about their economies, about the culture. not that they are anti-gay or anti-lesbian and anti-trans or anti this that or other group or they are concerned about crt, what little they know about it, now because they're anti-black. but because they haven't focused on them, so when the hearing this stuff it's like, what are you talking about, and then they're having other people form the opinion for them. so it's important that those, the rest of us, all those media sources you mentioned, programs like yours and others, talk about it in terms that helped people bring them into the conversation. because they're not there yet. >> the economy that michael just mentioned and you also mentioned the 401 k, chris hayes has been amazing on this, talking, exhausting himself about the biden economy and how good it is. it is as if people forget that donald trump helped dive the country into a global pandemic pandemic. he was president in 2020. i think there is a feeling, democrats are feeling hopeless, a little bit, about looms in the foreground. there is a sense that issues like abortion, if the economy isn't resonating, the performance of democrats on social issues, like important issues like abortion, could help the biden candidacy and democrats down-ticket. >> you have to do all of the things. so we have a year out. we have the most fragmented media environment any president candidate has faced in a century, certainly. so take advantage of that because you could tell a lot of different stories to different audiences by using digital tools. so i think you have to, somebody tied to ask to get advice on what do you think everyone should do? suggested that the biden campaign go back and re-tell the story of march 2020, and also, what biden walked into, to just remind people what a mess he walked into with covid, plus the january 6th riot so there is some context for how the economy is now, and you have to tell that part of the story about how bad it was. >> it's like biden when he said, osama bin laden's dead and general motors is alive. there was just a really, this is what happened, this is what you got, here we are. >> so you may have to tell that story. i think you also have to prove biden's plan is working, even if people don't feel the prices are as low now is they were when trump was president, although i think by the time we get to election, that's two years, a year. >> like a year from. now i think people maybe feeling better about, economy at the crisis at that point, but i but he has a plan and it's working. and in the states i don't think we're all concerned about democracy but you have to make that tangible and real for people. what does it? meaning it means it's gonna take away your obamacare. women can't make decisions about their health care, it means that the government's extreme maga officials are gonna be running, i gotta be in the white house, in the congress and looking to be trying to tell your kids what books they can read. i think it is, i think it just can't be democracy that stage. it has to be specific, tangible rights or your economic standing that is going to suffer. they have a year to do that. >> it has to feel visceral. >> and tangible. obamacare, two gifts, trump saying he's going to repeal obamacare because that is a popular thing that people rely on every day now, and then i am going to be a dictator. >> on day one. >> on day one. >> michael steele, i've got to ask you this because there has been so much talk this week about nikki haley. the chances of her actually ousting donald trump as a fund front runner seem thin, slim. you just raise your hand like now, that's a zero. nikki haley is a third party candidate, do you think it's a possibility? >> now. no. no. let's get off the third party staff. it is a rabbit hole to hell for the political consequences in 2024 and 2025 and beyond. the country is not, the country is not fully read in on what this means. it is reactionary. those efforts can't tell you which of the battleground states of those three or four states that you referenced, or for that matter, any state that they can get electoral votes and college votes from, and claim for themselves, so the reality of it is, there's no space for nikki to become a third party candidate. she will either be endorsing, if trump's nominee, when trump's nominee, endorsing him or not endorsing him on his ticket or not on his ticket. so it's that black and white at this point. they have less than 40 days to close the gap of 50 points. good luck. >> it's a lot to make up. i don't think i've heard the phrase rabbit hole to hell yet, and i thank you michael steele for debuting that phrase on this family program. jennifer palmieri, michael steele, thank you so much for keeping me honest tonight. we have a lot for this evening. the chairman of florida's republican party is rebuffing calls to step down in the wake of a rape allegation by invoking donald trump. plus, will don't be able to stay out of federal criminal court before the november election? 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can trump weaponize it as a delay mechanism? today it looks like the d.c. circuit court, which is handling trump's appeal here, it looks like that court is not moving speedily. the court is giving trump until the day after christmas, nearly three weeks from now, to submit preliminary paperwork. there's more paperwork before the judges can actually hear the case. so it's going to be at least january before the appeal is actually heard. the appeals process doesn't stop the underlying case from moving forward. trump need an official pause, known as a state, for that to happen. and so trump is asking judge chutkan for that stay until the d.c. circuit court rules on his broader appeal. the judge is expected to rule on that is early as next week. joining me now is joyce vance, former u.s. attorney for the northern district of alabama. joyce, thank you for being here. i wonder how you read the timeline that is emerging on this broader appeal effort. >> on the one hand is discouraging because of this particular case. on the other hand this is how appeals work. the courts give the parties some time to get everything docketed. the record from the proceedings below has to be compiled. given the urgency of this matter, i wonder if we might not see jack smith's team take a stab and asking the court to expedite proceedings, but i think reality dictates that the judges have looked at the calendar and they've decided that they don't want to go until after the christmas holiday. >> so can you walk me through practically how many more procedural steps are in place before we can actually get to a hearing on the appeal? >> right. so there will have to be a briefing schedule. the court will order that. with the gag order proceedings the didn't on an expedited basis. they gave the parties very limited time to file their briefs. the moving part he will get to file their brief. the other side vials a response, and then there's a reply. there's always a period of at least several days between those. once all of the briefs are in, the court is free to set oral are documents as quickly as it wishes to. but what has to happen before the parties can write their briefs, is the formal step that appellate lawyers are used to which is compiling the record. in this case it's not extensive. you'll have to get transcripts from hearing in the court below. you'll have to get a briefing papers. that's about it. it's not like a trial where that record can take quite a long time to compile. >> okay, i'm not gonna hold you to a timeline, but for people who are hoping this is going to move quickly and not affect the ultimate trial date of march 4th, it sounds somewhat discouraging. i do wonder where there, what you think about trump's effort to get all of the pretrial motions, the jury selection, although that machinery stopped in place, asking for a stay on this. do you think he has a case to be made here? >> this is going to be a bit of a pitched battle. the law is not entirely clear. typically litigants are entitled to a stay of any matters that are related to the appeal. and so the question will be whether or not judge chutkan can continue to take steps to move the case towards trial. trump will say she can't because if he wins on his immunity argument then all of this has to go away. the government isn't entitled to try him. i think on the other hand in this case there is a very legitimate argument to be made about the interest in a court system in seeing this move forward expeditiously so it won't be particularly prejudiced if she continues to rule on motions and takes preliminary steps towards selecting a jury. all of the evidence in this case has been discussed in public in the case of the january six committee meetings in the house. so it's a little bit of an undecided question for the appellate courts to consider. >> joyce, how much this court business to think is gonna end up in the supreme court? the request for the state could end up there, the broad appeal effort could end up there. even the gag coroner, we would be done with that, either. how much is the roberts court gonna see of all of this, do you think