we could bring some of these hostages home. >> a potential deal for hostages. >> it's not going to be done until it's done. >> tonight, the delicate negotiation going on in israel, it will take to take some get some of the hamas hostages home. then, the latest on the gag order against the ex president as authoritarianism keeps spreading beyond trump. >> i will rain hell on washington and lee, see. >> plus, a reason why the polls are so tight, and why inflation ain't what it used to be. >> we went to go buy a turkey today. it was $90 for a turkey. >> when all in starts, right now. good evening from new york. i'm chris hayes. we are having some big news tonight. it is been 45 days since the october 7th hamas attack on israel, which precipitated the nearly constant bombardment of gaza by these army and a nearly full scale ground invasion. in today at this hour there is a glimmer of hope that some of the over 200 hostages can be returned in the fighting can come to an end, at least temporarily, right now, as of this moment, these really government is convening late into the night over a potential deal brokered by the government with assistance from the united states, brokered with qatar, to reach some of this hostages who have been in a mass custody since the attack on october 7th. we should stress that things are still in flux. we do not know exactly what a deal will look like if and when it materializes, though many of the parties to it indicate it was close. there have been reports in the media the discussions involve hamas releasing about 50 israeli ostriches, primarily women and children, in exchange for 150 palestinian political prisoners in israeli custody, also women and children. nbc news has also learned the deal might include permission for the red cross access to the remaining hostages in gaza, access they have so far been denied, though they -- the deal may also involve what is really prime minister benjamin yet in howell causal pause in the war, possibly for five days, to facilitate the prisoner and how to hostage what. again, nothing is confirmed until we hear directly from the parties. if a deal is reached reached, it is subject to review by the israeli supreme court. top of this deal comes amid mounting pressure on the government of netanyahu, including protests outside his home. there have also been mounting calls to get more humanitarian aid for palestinians into gaza, and scrutiny over the increasing civilian death toll there. so far there are more than 14,000 dead in gaza, including 5000 children, that's according to health officials there. although those health officials were unable to even keep that tally through part of that period. the past few weeks there have been reports on negotiations for a hostage deal falling apart at the last minute, including one indicating that netanyahhad rejected a deal for a cease-fire, a five-day cease-fire in exchange for a release of some of the hall hostages in the early days of the war. the politics are not straightforward. some hard-line members of netanyahu's far-right government oppose the current deal as well. but from what we know tonight does not appear as though there is enough internal resistance to stop such a deal. again, this all remains in. flags flocks we are watching minute to minute to see what happens, as i imagine so many folks in israel, whose family members are held right now, in those in gaza are as well. netanyahu has made it clear the israeli military intends to resume its bombardment of gaza following a temporary pause that might be struck in a deal, noting he believes israel remains at war with hamas, and multiple members of the government has said the utter destruction of hamas is the only entity they will accept at the end of this conflict. still, the release of any hostages, or even a brief pause in the bombardment of gaza for 45 days, is honestly probably the first real break of hope. there were a few hostages released earlier but the first break of hope and the possibility of something other than death and destruction in what has been an unremitting lee dark six weeks. we have an independent journalist reporting from jerusalem, including new york magazine. you've been covering this very closely, particularly the dynamics around family members of hostages and the government. there is a very late night convening of the cabinet to assess the deal. do you know anything about what is happening? >> yeah, good night from here, chris. we know that minutes ago the israeli government did vote to pass the deal and it was not unanimous and netanyahu's most extreme right ministers including i think one or two from his own party did not support it. but out of the 38 minister government it past comfortably. they there are expected to be very limited appeals to the supplee priem court presented even tonight. right now three or four in the morning. those appeals will be against certain names of palestinian prisoners who are going to be published in the coming minutes, those that will be exchanged. and family members of the victims, those people have the right to appeal specific names. ironically, the right-wing organizations who were hoping to appeal against this whole decision said it was illegitimate elevated for doing it by a law that in yahoo himself past prewar. >> right. >> when he was trying to do his traditional overhaul. >> this is the times reporting on this on the possible palestinian prisoners who might be included in such a de saying that negotiations the release of israeli women and children held hostage in gaza in exchange for palestinian women, the most recent arrests -- protests and violence have surged including attacks and palestinians by israeli settlers. israel has said the rest are part of a carrier warned that palestinianhave detainees are held without gazan or even subject to torture. it sounds like mostly would be women and children themselves. is there any additional reporting about the pause aspect of this? about there being substation of hostilities for some period of time? >> there is, and as you said, we should under underline how complicated it is. the understanding that i have here is that the initial batch of israeli hostages to be released counts, as you said, about 50, that they're not going to be released all on thursday. they're going to be released at about the pace of ten a day over four or five days. what hamas is promising is that if israel then extend the pause, it will search for more children in particular. it will search for more. israel has about 240 hostages. so the release of 50 would still leave 190 israelis or, i want to emphasize this, foreigners captured in israel, tourists, agricultural workers, aid workers, you name it. these people are not -- israel his said any non-israeli citizens are not counted in exchange for the palestinian prisoners. but these are all counted as israeli hostages taken from israeli territory. so i think that if the deal goes ahead and it proceeds well, what we are seeing is at least five days of a truce that i think will include also the cessation of israelis by drone activities over gaza, which leads to a lot of questions about what hamas is planning to do during that time and the plans to dangle this possibility of further hostage releases over several days, ideally for it to try and change this truce into a permanent cease-fire. >> let me just say that, you just had this one not only views anything they don't know, but nbc news now confirming in reporting that the israeli cabinet as, as noga was just saying, past the -- a majority approve this deal. again, the contours of the deal are not public or written down anywhere. so we are still sort of figuring it out based on reporting. if the deal was approved, it was not unanimous unanimous. some of the more far-right members of that government, including some members of netanyahu's likud party as well. the prime minister's office, the israeli government in the meetings just ended. this is the prime minister's office. the outline of the hostage deal passed by a majority of votes. that's what we have. we have approval, it seems. we have understanding the basic contours of this, particularly about the sort of attenuated release of hostages in exchange for cincinnati should of hostilities. my final question, what political discourse around this has been like? obviously i can imagine right now family members of the hostages in this unbelievable intense and difficult period right now of wondering, is their loved one going to be one of the ones? >> that's right. the word for this is heartbreaking. it's heartbreaking. there have been aspects that have been disgraceful with sun of netanyahu's ministers attacking his family, screaming you don't have a non-monopoly on pain, in this sort of thing. i have to tell you that, again, assuming this deal goes through, as you say, assuming you go through smoothly, what we're talking about is the israeli government and very few days finding itself in a squeeze organized by hamas in which either its spends military operations for longer or it has to look at close to 100 israeli families in the face and say yeah, your loved ones are still in gaza, and we're starting to bomb again. >> all right, noga tarnopolsky, always fantastic to get your perspective. i appreciate you staying up to this ungodly hour. thank you very much. >> thank you, chris. >> david remnick, editor of the new york, or where he's been rating about the -- and has lived in gaza especially during the 2014 war. they join me now. amy, let me start with you in your reaction. obviously the deal itself, and it's contours have been reported in the last few days didn't does look like the israeli government has proved it. it's not until it's. done >> those of us who have been reporting on the negotiations this started in on october 8th to be frank, so the truth is that the contours of the agreement have ebbed and flowed depending on who is going to be released. and one point it was foreigners, a one point it was all israeli silva leon or non israeli soldiers. the idea that the negotiation has been on the table for weeks now, it is very safe to say, this did not come out of anywhere. the real question going forward is, what is changing in the calculation of the israeli cabinet? what is changing from is really leaders who said it's not time how these are negotiations? a couple of weeks ago before the ground offensive, a similar proposal was put forward to the israeli cabinet, i should say to the israeli prime minister from the qatar mediators, and their position was not yet. they felt that hamas had not been genuine or sincere, but the release of the hostages but they also felt the pressure in the price that hamas had paid for what it did on october 7th was not adequate. it begs the question now, as we begin to understand the calculation of the prime minister, why he decided to accept this, so as noga well, saying the internal dynamic dynamics, it's what happening in gaza. >> david, in your reporting from israel and the west's with the west bank that you published in the new yorker, one of the things it's been so clear since the atrocity on october 7th and everything that has happened, is just the sort of brutal dark and implacable logic of reprisal in violence. seeing no off ramp. this parade of war and more death and destruction. this does, if it happens, at least signify the first opening for some kind of path that isn't just that. >> we'll as noga can tell you with even more experience in-depth, the basic truth here is no one's going anywhere. no matter how this finally ends there will be israelis, there will be gas, and there will be palestinians, and then what? so the question is, in short term and in the long term, what will prevail? will hatred prevail? we urge for higher walls and bigger armies and create a rage prevail as politics in the middle east? or will there be some politics, both in gaza, if that's even possible in the term, and in the west bank and throughout the middle east, that finds some glimmer forward a reconciliation. today the new york times ran a piece about, was piece over possible in 2008 camp david and rent yet again, yet again through the details, narratives, and counterintuitive's of what happened. but even greater and more complex problem is, what will happen the day after all this comes to an end? and that is the darkest, of deepest complexity, i would think. >> i want to farro on that with you, ayman, but first, david, i want to ask about contributor to your magazine who lives in gaza. i have been reading his stuff, vie in the new yorker and also just a remarkable guy, a poet, gradually syracuse university. he runs, the only english language library in gaza. a father of three. he was detained by israeli defense forces. a lot you lost contact with him. please tell me. >> i was in contact with him while i was in israel and thereafter i was in contact with a 30-year-old poet with three children a wife and an extended family in gaza, and lived all his life in gaza, except when he was in the united states it's your cues university. a remarkable person. and he and his family, who lived in northern gaza, we're heading towards the south, hoping to leave, hoping to go to rafah, which is at the southern end of the gaza strip. and along the way he was apprehended by the israeli military for no seaming reason, and taken into custody with dozens of other palestinians. according to my information, he was taken out of israel, taken to a military outpost in the negative, in southern israel, and was there for two days and was interrogated, and there are reports that he was beaten, and i have not confirmed this. i have not been able to speak with him today. but my information, and i think this is absolutely true, is that he has been released and he's back in gaza. thank god, with his family. but again, this is one very gifted poet and there is relief in this. but of course there are thousands of thousands of people who have been killed. 1200 people have been killed in the most brutal way in israel. and so the killing, the suffering, is general. i hope the best for him and his family. that is one story in a much larger tragic picture. again, i think we have to start thinking about where this is going in terms of u.s. policy as well as israeli politics and palestinian politics as well. >> to talk to david's point about the day after question, in some ways it's premature precisely for the reasons you articulated, i think almost unanimously across the board. almost all of israeli politics, with some exceptions, and particularly the unity government, they have said the destruction of hamas's and state that we will seek in this war. if there is a pause here, and it looks like there will be, that will be short of that. but then the question becomes, to continue that is the goal? is it an achievable goal? and if it you achieve it, what comes after? >> so many good questions. those are enormous questions to sift through. but i will say this. i think this is why this one is so important. we are having a conversation. if you just listen to the story of warsaw and even talking about him, these are the stories the palestinians have lived with every single day under occupation. they don't get the international media attention. they're getting it now because of the warm because what is happening there. i think for us who have tried to answer what happened, to david's point, it requires an honest conversation about all of the parties involved in the conditions of life. what he is, as you are, saying what happens the day after? does israel resume military operations was the 200 plus pasta edges are released? >> they're not gonna do that with precisely the reasons you've enunciated. >> exactly. they're gonna they know how this works, they've been through this many times before. they're in games to be able to put the spotlight on the israeli government as a result of these are negotiations, and put them in a different corner to make about when this is gonna resume. but if you apply the logic of what has happened right now over the poorest course in the last seven weeks, 46% of residential units in gaza have been destroyed. what -- is the endgame? to what extent do you prepare to killed millions palestinians to eradicate hamas? there has to be some limit. that's the problem wipe comments community american administration with says there are no red lines become extremely problematic. >> to the final point to you, david -- >> i agree, is real could not be expected to go on, and first of all there was the great delusion that somehow you could, quote unquote, shrink the conflict. that was the phrase used in israel, not only by netanyahu. you would shrink the conflict, empower hamas, give them privileges to work in israel, and it will go away, to concentrate on the west bank. . >> or piece with. arabs >> and you just get from one year to the next. well that was a delusion. a gigantic delusion. this was netanyahu's eye himself as the great winston churchill of israel. now that has been shattered. but also israel cannot be expected to live on its border with the threat is the experienced on a tour seventh either. so how do you, again, we're back to the original question, how can israel live incan security, and how can the palestinians be given their dignity, and eventually their statehood and their own security and their own personhood? that has to occur, because neither of these people aren't going anywhere. and they both deserve to live decent, secure lives in a decent and secure politics. that is a question of immense complexity. >> and the only way that they all get there is one step at a time. it does seem like perhaps a first little step in a direction away from more violence and more death, and some good news for parties across this conflict. we're still waiting on the details. we're gonna find out the details of the hostage deal. i want to thank david remnick and my good friend ayman mohyeldin. we'll be right back. ayman mohyeldin. we'll be right back. we'll be right back. >> when i wanted to see results fast, rinvoq delivered rapid symptom relief and helped leave bathroom urgency behind. check. when uc tried to slow me down... i got lasting, steroid-free remission with rinvoq. check. and when uc caused damage rinvoq came through by visibly repairing my colon lining. check. rapid symptom relief... lasting steroid-free remission... ...and the chance to visibly repair the colon lining. check, check, and check. rinvoq can lower your ability to fight infections, including tb. serious infections and blood clots, some fatal; cancers, including lymphoma and skin cancer; death, heart attack, stroke, and tears in the stomach or intestines occurred. people 50 and older with at least 1 heart disease risk factor have higher risks. don't take if allergic to rinvoq as serious reactions can occur. tell your doctor if you are or may become pregnant. put uc in check and keep it there with rinvoq. ask your gastroenterologist about rinvoq and learn how abbvie can help you save. you know that feeling of having to rewash dishes that didn't get clean? 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