what matters to them and what doesn't. that moment of clarity is right now. last night, contrary to what many were led to believe, americans across the country propelled democrats to what may have been the most consequential political achievement for the democratic party since the day joe biden was elected. voters injected rocket fuel directly into the party's blood stream. electing democratic candidates and advancing their key policy positions. in kentucky, the governor's race once projected to be a very close one was not. incumbent democrat andy beshear won by a 6-pointrgin. in a state that donald trump won 6 points. in virginia, nbc news projects democrats retain control of the state senate and actually flipped the house of delegates. now governor glenn youngkin, the conservative poster boy generating national buzz, will wrestle with two chambers controlled by the democratic party over matters of gun safety, voting rights and the issue that defined that race and others, reproductive freedom. nowhere was that more pronounced than the state of ohio in one of the most watched contests in recent memory, voters there enshrined abortion rights in their state constitution and they did so by a margin of 12 points. this was the second election day since the supreme court overturned roe v. wade and both times the issue of abortion was one of, if not the primary driver of how voters would behave at the polls. a huge loser for republicans. one they can't do much about. and they have just one guy to blame. guess who? the man who publicly reveled in the idea that he is the one responsible for striking down roe. donald trump. so after the american people were so unambiguous yesterday on the issues that matter to them, do republicans have it in them in 2023 to course correct in time for 2024? will americans see in donald trump what they saw in the rest of the republican party? a man and a party woefully out of step and out of touch. that's where we start with some of our favorite friends. david is back with us. here with me onset for the hour, former senator, claire mccass kell, and matt joins us as well. lucky for us they're all msnbc contributors. there is a nostalgia to you texting me while i was doing baseball practice pick-up. tell me what the polls said. take our viewers inside what you were seeing in the polls and the exit returns. >> thank you. when i looked at -- you know, i'm sort of a mad scientist in these things on election night as you've been there. and i think too often people focus on the wrong things. on election night, what i was looking at was the difference between in kentucky, for example, why i knew early, early on. and i texted you early on that beshear would win, he was performing in county after county after county five to six points better than when he barely won in 2019. and that was holding the pattern. he ended up winning five points better than he did last time. to me this is such a fundamental first. a fundamental sort of thing that there is such a misunderstanding of today's electorate. people constantly looking at the wrong numbers and polls and not at the right numbers which is why they miscalculated in 2022 what would happen, why they miscalculated in 2023. there is a huge divergence between what people look at on paper and what actually happens on the playing field. to me, politics is a lot like an nfl game or a college football game. you don't win the game or lose the game on paper. you win or lose the game in the field. and in the last five elections, in the field, when there is candidate against candidate, message against message, the democrats have won. and i would say this is becoming fundamentally less, i would argue, less about donald trump and more about what the republican party has become. so i know you premise that had they only have donald trump to blame because of what he did with roe v. wade. but in my view, they only have themselves to blame because they've allowed this to happen. they've allowed the republican party to become this, carry all these things that a majority of americans can't stand, and now they present candidates who don't fit the electorate, as we saw last night in virginia and issues that don't fit the electric as an ohio, and the candidates in kentucky. so to me this has become a virus that now patient zero is, i think, doesn't matter as much. the virus has attached itself to the republican party. and that's what i don't think people fundamentally understand. this is a virus the american people, when they have come down to it, in the field of battle on election day, make a comparison and they vote democratic. >> i want to press you on something. i so love being, not corrected but being enlightened by your understanding of the electorate. your record is pretty close to perfect, matt dowd. what strikes me as broken is describing the country as divided around issues. they are not. 85% of a americans believe abortion should be legal in certain or all circumstances. a whole slew of specific policy that's we put up on the screen all the time. what is divided, what is polarized, is tribalism around extremist views that aren't even rooted in ideology. but they ever done damage the president biden's approval rating. and i wonder what you make of the ohio exits that show president biden sitting at about 41%, but support for abortion access at 60%. that is joe biden's position and joe biden's position only. donald trump is responsible for the extremism that has been ushered in on the right. what does joe biden do with that 20 points, sort of running room or head room between his own approval and the support for his position on reproductive health care? >> i'm really glad you asked this question. a perfect question. as we saw in 2022, in what people understood as normal, is where biden's approval rating wasn't very good going into a mid-term election. what ended up happening is democrats, in state after state after state, won among people, overwhelmingly among people that somewhat disapproved of joe biden. yesterday's electorate, people that wanted health care freedom among people that somewhat disapproved of joe biden voted overwhelmingly for that amendment. that is why this idea of predicting what will happen with joe biden from polls today, when voters today or yesterday were focused on those elections, and what was the choice in those elections, come next year, seven, eight months from now, the choice will be very clear for voters. though they may dislike joe biden in this, in some ways, in things that he's done or who he is, they're going to have a fundamental choice. and as you said, in issue after issue after issue, and really fundamentally in vision of the country, if you present it as a vision of the country, the democrats' vision of the country, pro freedom, pro justice, pro multicultural democracy, is much more supported than what the republicans' vision is. which is a one culture, single thing. and i don't know if you saw yesterday that you had senator saying you have to get rid of these on the ballot. saying democracy doesn't work for us. if we give voters the choice on issues, they have a tendency in almost every single instance, as claire knows, even in red missouri, they put the rise go minimum wage on the ballot. it passed. they put expansion of medicare on the ballot. it passed. so that's what i think republicans don't want. voters to actually coming to the conclusion, what candidate fits them in many ways, and i think in the end, joe biden's candidacy will fit where voters are even if they dislike him at the time. and what issue fits them. that's what we have to focus on. not these overall numbers that people sort of keep saying a year out from the election date. where are voters fundamentally, fundamentally in the choice they have to make? >> claire, you were focused on virginia. i think fair to say, a little worried that youngkin's position might sound acceptable when held up against the really extreme positions among some of the republicans. democrats prevailed across the board in virginia. are you surprised, heartened, cautiously optimistic? >> i hope some of my children are watching. they always say they don't get to hear me say this often enough. i was wrong. >> you were right to be worried. i think we're all worried. i'm worried every election night. and i think that what youngkin did has worked before. the republican party is so whackadue, if you take an inch left of the extremist, you can be perceived as moderate, it is reassuring. >> it is reassuring. a couple of thing that really matter in 2024. one is motivation. and these men, and with all due respect to my friends that are with me on this right now. i was reading this morning in the "wall street journal," some political consultant in virginia. he was saying that this issue would fade by november of 2024. i got news for him. this issue is not going anywhere. women are angry. this is about their freedom. this is about their health. this is about whether or not they can make decisions with their family and with their doctor on monumental things in their lives. and i don't think men, many men, some do but many don't fully understand what a gut punch the dobbs decision was to women. and it is not going away. the other thing i would say, i think matthew -- >> wait. i don't want to move on from that. i think there are a million things to say about that and a million ways to manifest itself in ways that may not be recognizable. i know a gynecologist who has done more sterilizations on young, healthy women because those young healthy women don't trust that reproductive health care will be available. i know a lot of women who have changed other aspects of their lives, who find it harder to find other health care because if people that provide reproductive health care are scared they'll be sued, there is less -- you end up with health care deserts. >> i know mothers in missouri, if your daughter gets raped, the government mandates that she bring that pregnancy to term. that she give birth to the rapist's baby. that's the law in my state. so i know mothers in missouri who have asked me for advice on how do i stockpile the morning after pill? how do i get that so i have it and i don't have to worry about getting thrown in jail or my daughter getting thrown in jail or us having to figure out how to get to another state quickly. this is the kind of thing that women are confronting in this country. and it's not just my state. it's not just a few states. there are a bunch of states. they're doing period trackers to try to catch women getting abortions. they're putting point with ois people to try to catch people helping people get abortions. they've taken this so far that they have lost suburban republican women in numbers that i don't think the republican party even realizes. >> you were going to make a second political point. >> the second point i would make, you poll americans about a sitting president. unless there's some extraordinary external event like 9/11. do you know what they'll say? we don't want this guy anymore. we want a new guy or a new woman, hopefully someday. really judging someone's popularity as a sitting president at this point in their term is never going to be, oh, this guy is just better than sliced bread. what elections are is a contrast. it's a contrast. the sooner the biden white house gets out of the mode that we can convince everyone we've done a really good job and into the mode, we have to really make people understand how scary this contrast is to the things they care about. and that's what i think last night helped with. i think it will nudge a lot of democratic candidates to realize that hey, this is the choice where the government is in your bedroom, whether government is telling you how to raise your children, whether government is telling what you book to read a. this is what it is about. and it is going to be an election pleasantly for a change where democrats will have freedom as their best friend. >> and if you look at ohio, it was a swing state when i worked in politics. it is a pretty red state now, david. the majority of men and women and white ohioans and black and latino from age 18 to 65 all supported enshrining the right to an abortion in that state's constitution. that was the question. in ohio, a red state, jorts of every group that we've separated voters out in voted for it. >> yeah, and nicole, i want to yield my time back to you and senator mccaskill. there are stronger voices on this issue. let's go straight to the data. it is very important. what we know since june of last year, in a post dobbs world, the nation is overwhelmingly pro roe. it is simply a pro roe nation. and republicans refuse to recognize that. i think the thread between matthew's comments and claire's is very important. we get caught up in a horse race west see a poll flash between joe biden and donald trump. that doesn't matter a year out. what does matter is the opinions of voters on the issues. what we continue to see including ohio last night, is that issues actually matter. to the question of reproductive rights to personal freedom, voters are making that leap. if we've seen anything from kansas to ohio and everything in between, voters are making the leap between a donald trump did not led republican party that restricts freedom and democrats wh eorace it, and i think what we're seeing. i really believe what we're seeing. voters are asking themselves under trumpist republicans, whatever you call them. is democracyto be more or less secure? is the american experiment going to be more promising or less promising? is the economy under republicans going to choose winners and losers based on political allegiances or not? is education going to be that i subscribe to the edicts of the leader? it starts and ends with reproductive freedom. the one thing we've seen since the dobbs decision, democrats continue to win elections. the horse race polls are garbage right now. what the maers is when voters going to the polls, they say i don't trust republicans with my personal freedom. that is a wide lane for joe biden and the democrats next year. >> and i think you can go even further and say trump voters go to the polls in a post dobbs world and vote on the side of democrats. let me show you andy beshear last night. >> i think candidates should run for something and not against someone. i think what you saw last night was a rejection of anger politics. of attempting to divide us. people are tired of the constant bickering, seeing the world in red or blue or team v or team r. i think everyone who runs for office ought to come with the very best ideas about how to move us forward. >> that was from later today. that is a democratic governor in a plus 26 trump state. he didn't win just with finding more democrats, which is often the sort of model. he turned trump voters into democratic voters for governor. and he ran on a very, very specific message about reproductive freedom. there was an ad that was chilling. we'll play it later in the broadcast. he ran with a very blunt and a very direct message in kentucky and prevailed by wider margins than last time. >> shades of bill clinton, to be honest. i had to go back and think, in 1992, did people really think that bill clinton had what it tack? i don't know if people did or not. we'll see what andy beshear does. we know from ohio, reproductive freedom matters to voters. we know from kentucky that delivering results matters. andy beshear has delivered a strong economy, vetoed an antitrans bill, and still won a trump plus 27 race. and i don't know his personal faith convictions. he clearly speaks openly about some time of christian faith orientation. which goes to your point about republicans supporting a pro-roe position. many republicans are republican evangelicals sitting in the pews sunday morning. that's what the data tells us. for 50 years, the nation is told you're either pro-life or pro-choice. you can subscribe to that if you want. but coming out of dobbs, there is a different question. whether you identify as pro-life or pro-choice, are you pro roe or pro dobbs? the nation is saying we are pro. >> the other thing, i'll show you, after taking a break. i'll show you the never-minds. republicans had a minute to course correct. and i think you're right in that youngkin offered the biggest correction. but that it was such a flop. we have to ask, and then i'll ask all of you. i'll give you two minutes to think about it. what do they do between now and '24? it's not enough time to change a position. it's not enough time to help a single woman or a single doctor. we'll also show you ivanka trump. not because we want to but because she was the star witness in that quarter of a million-dollar fraud trial against her father and her family business. how the former first daughter and senior executives seem to have a memory issue. i think there's a supplement for that. she didn't remember much of anything seeking to distance herself from the company. and later, from ivanka to don jr. to eric, mary trump knows that family, her family, better than just about anyone. she'll be with us later in the broadcast. she'll be with us later in the broadcast. when you have chronic kidney disease... ...there are places you'd like to be. like here. and here. not so much here. farxiga reduces the risk of kidney failure which can lead to dialysis. ♪far-xi-ga♪ farxiga can cause serious side effects, including ketoacidosis that may be fatal, dehydration, urinary tract or genital yeast infections, and low blood sugar. a rare, life-threatening bacterial infection in the skin of the perineum could occur. stop taking farxiga and call your doctor right away if you have symptoms of this infection, an allergic reaction, or ketoacidosis. when you have chronic kidney disease, it's time to ask your doctor for farxiga. because there are places you want to be. if you can't afford your medication, astrazeneca may be able to help. ♪far-xi-ga♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ we're building a better postal service. for more on-time deliveries. and easier, affordable ways to ship. so you can deliver even more holiday joy. the united states postal service. delivering for america. c'mon, we're right there. c'mon baby. the united states it's the only we need. go, go, go, go! ah! touchdown baby! -touchdown! are your neighbors watching the same game? yeah, my 5g home internet delays the game a bit. but you get used to it. try these. they're noise cancelling earmuffs. i stole them from an airport. it's always something with you, man. great! solid! -greek salad? exactly! don't delay the game with verizon or t-mobile 5g home internet. catch it on the xfinity 10g network. why didn't we do this last year? before you were preventing migraine with qulipta®? remember the pain? cancelled plans? the worry? that was then. and look at me now. you'll never truly forget migraine. but qulipta® reduces attacks, making zero-migraine days possible. it's the only pill of its kind that blocks cgrp - and is approved to prevent migraine of any frequency. to help give you that forget-you-get migraine feeling. don't take if allergic to qulipta®. most common side effects are nausea, constipation, and sleepiness. learn how abbvie could help you save. qulipta®. the forget-you-get migraine medicine™. a big thank you to president donald j. trump for his support and his endorsement of this campaign. let me just say, let me just say, the trump culture of winning is alive and well in kentucky. >> well, that didn't turn out exactly how i wanted it to. i promised the governor i would be brief. so i'll be brief tonight and say thank you all. >> hold the house, flip the senate. we know how to do this. we learned in 2021 how to win elections. >> so i look forward to working with the house and the senate going forward j