but the only thing that matters are the facts and the numbers and numbers, my friend, don't lie. >> really election interference. it's all it is. ridiculous. the numbers are much greater. you have a racist attorney general who made some terrible. >> this showing as trump beating biden in five states. steve kornacki breaks it all down one year ahead of the election. overnight, new israeli air strikes on gaza city now surrounded by israeli tanks and troops where hundreds of thousands of civilians remain now cut off from escape routes from the south. and secretary of state blinken made unannounced stops in the west bank and baghdad after israel's prime minister netanyahu apparently rejected his calls to limit the air strikes and have temporary pauses to aid can get in and americans can get out. >> good day. former president trump is testifying in his new york civil fraud trial. the case that could collapse his new york real estate business. the judge telling mr. trump's attorney to control his client repeatedly. the judge ordering the former president to answer questions and not give speeches. mr. trump claiming his properties like mar-a-lago were undervalued and insisting the investigation is election interference. joining me now is vaughn hillyard outside the court. take us into the courtroom. it's been combative from the get go today. >> it's been tense and this is the only day donald trump will appear on the witness stand to answer questions from the new york attorney general's prosecutor. in the last few minutes, it was the judge not admonishing trump directly, but instead turning to the prosecutor for the new york attorney general's office and asking him directly whether he would allow donald trump to in the words of the judge, continue to ramble on. what we have seen over the last two hours is donald trump not answer directly numerous questions from the prosecutor's office. instead, in the words of the judge, giving speeches almost like it's a political rally. the judge had even urging chris kise, donald trump's attorney, to pull his client aside and get him to answer concisely the questions here, but over the course of the two hours, donald trump has consistently gone off on tangents, delivering more what you could call a zillow tour of his multiple properties. in this particular case, just moments ago when the judge asked the new york attorney general's question whether he wanted to cut off donald trump or not, it was in relation to his golf club over in scotland where donald trump has been essentially trying to make the case to the judge as to why his properties are not overvalued at the new york attorney general alleges and has outlined in her lawsuit. to note here, donald trump is also on the stand here. called this an unfair trial. he's had his arms crossed, leaning back in the chair. called this an unfair trial. and we should note here that for donald trump, this is very much about in his words, making the case to the american public that he is being unfairly targeted by the new york attorney general, who we should note is as well in that courtroom listening to his testimony here this morning. >> stay with us. let's bring in jack rosenberg and andrew weissman. mr. trump has been given long political speeches. he's been admonished by the judge and now the judge is admonishing the prosecutor to not let him ramble so long. >> when you say he's been giving long, rambling answers, it's another way of saying he's been giving nonresponsive answers. often the jury, but in this case, a judge alone, to decide if you're not answering a question, it's because the question, the answer to the question wouldn't be helpful to you. he's been evasive. and the judge can take all that into account when he determines at the end of this trial the penalties that the trump organization are going to face. so not answering questions is not helpful to mr. trump in court. it may play in a political theatre but doesn't help in court. >> in fact, andrew, let me quote you. two things from the judge. he said at one point, that was a simply yes or no answer. turning to the attorney, i be seech you to control him. then the judge saying can you control your client? this is not a political rally. maybe you need to have a talk with him right now. after which they did take a break. so that the defense lawyer, kise, could talk to his client. andrew, how is this playing with the judge? this isn't a jury case. >> there's a jury of one and as chuck said, this is all a question of -- if you're playing to this courtroom, but i suspect donald trump is really playing to a very different audience and chuck is absolutely right that in terms of what the judge can do in fact he has said that in court today, which is that if it continues, he will draw every negative inference. this reminds me very much of judge chutkan in the d.c. federal case saying if you can't to make these kinds of threats and statements publicly, i may move the trial up. these are judges trying to deal with an out of control defendant. one in a criminal case and one in a civil case, where they're trying to impose some respect for the rule of law. the most remarkable part of this, andrea, is that we're dealing with someone who is the former president of the united states who is simply not obeying the rules. some of his questions, answers to the questions, have not been terribly helpful to him. you know, he has doubled down on certain defenses about saying you know, like financial statements, but i you know, basically was relying on something which he calls the worthless clause. meaning these statements may be false, intentionally false, but because they put a little disclaimer at the bottom saying do your undue diligence, that somehow absolved the former president from making them accurate and the judge has rejected that. it will remanl to be scene how the judge evaluates this. >> chuck, i see you nodding at what andrew was saying. >> i normally do. >> we both do. >> the notion that a disclaimer for instance would be absolve mr. trump of any responsibility for the numbers that went on to his own financial statement. are nonsense. what you see repeatedly, andrea, are different valuations at different points in time for different reasons. take this lovely coffee mug. >> please don't -- don't under value or overvalue. >> i wouldn't dream it. but hypothetically if i said it's worth a dollar for tax purposes but a million dollars for a financial statement, that's what the trump organization is doing. valuing things in different ways at different moments for different reasons and the judge gets it. >> one of those instances depending on how the judge takes this, andrew, the 10,000 square foot trump tower apartment where the president has been staying while he's on this trial. it was valued at 30,000 square foot apartment. today in court, he explained that by saying it really wasn't that much of a discrepancy because they didn't, you know, they were counting the roof. so the roof would add up to, so, that struck me as a stretch. shall we say? >> yes. saying they counted the roof and they also wrongly counted things like elevator and he said elevator and other locations, i mean, that just isn't going to add up to another 20,000 square feet nor would the roof be counted in the same way as you know, livable space. and this is somebody who you know, his whole brand is using real estate. so, you know, this is one where going into this, everyone knew he was going to have a very difficult time with that particular discrepancy. that's one that you know, the public and people can really understand. it's simple. it doesn't involve complicated tax issues, accounting issues. and you know how big your apartment is. your home is. everyone knows that. so, he had a very difficult time with that. that was his story and the judge is going to be able to weigh that. he already in connection with the first cause of action has found that this was a fraudulent statement. he now can also make findings about the former president's credibility on the stand giving the answer that you just mentioned, andrea. >> and to andrew and chuck, let me bring vaughn in on this because you've covered donald trump for so long, vaughn. in talking about the disclaimer clauses, those controversial clauses now, he said that he never got involved with the statements because of a disclaimer clause. that's why we shouldn't be having a case here. he went on to say, people don't know how good a company i built because people like you are going around trying to demean me and hurt me. he said. to the attorney general's prosecutor. vaughn? >> right, andrea. i was waiting to see how donald trump would actually act inside of the courtroom here because we all read his social media accounts. whether it be 1:00 a.m. or 1:00 p.m. in which he has attacked the judge, the principal law clerk of the judge, the attorney general, he's called her racist, used a derogatory name to refer to her as. but the political trail is much different than the inside of a courtroom. where about 15 rows exist where there are only a few member of the public that can attend. what we are watching out play out inside of this courtroom in lower manhattan. not even for a jury, but this is going to be the judge who will determine the damages that he, the other defendants including his two sons and the company incur, donald trump is acting just like he does on the campaign trial on social media. you just read that quote in which he attacked the new york general prosecutor who is the one asking him the questions here today. but he also just talking about james, he said i think it is a political act. she is trying to become governor and she is a political hack and this is a disgrace. for donald trump, he goes on to call this a political witch hunt. it's really something to watch because for donald trump, this is his first trial that he is facing here in 2023 ahead of what will be multiple criminal trials in 2024 including that slated to begin in march and our producer, adam reece, is inside of the com and he spotted one of trump's attorneys for that hush money payment criminal trial inside of the courtroom here taking notes. trump while he was on the stand here today in the civil lawsuit t question is how will reperform as defendant, whether he takes the stand or not around those criminal proceedings in 2024. i think today is the first evidence that the man that you see on the campaign trial is very well likely the same man you're going to see on the witness stand. >> andrew, to that point, we never really thought he would testify in those criminal cases, but this performance today, it's getting heated. the trial's a disgrace, a political hack, a political witch hunt. taking on the judge again. and they're giving him a lot of leeway because he is not only a former president, but he is a candidate for the presidency. so, i presume that they want to avoid what is likely going to happen, which is appeals, whatever happens here in terms of the liability, andrew. they're going to have real, you know, questions about the free speech issue and how it affects political candidates. >> sure. the question is sort of which trial or trials will happen before the election. right now, it is clear that the march 4th d.c. federal case will go forward and as you said, it is unlikely that he would testify. it is also worth remembering that these kinds of antics are things that different judges have different manners in which they can control the courtroom as chuck well knows. there are some judges who even with a person like trump will have a very tight ship. there are also different prosecutors with different styles in terms of how they can control witnesses. but i would also point out that whether this is tried to a judge or a jury, it, and if donald trump were to testify, it can also play very, very poorly and we have an instance of that. not just here, but just think about the e. jean carroll case where trump didn't testify live in that case, his deposition was some of the most damning evidence in that case where the jury found the former president sexually assaulted carroll and key evidence there was donald trump's own testimony. so, this is one where he may be playing to a political audience but at the expense of the particular result in one of these civil and criminal cases of which there are many that are pending. >> let me just bring you up to date, andrew. i'm reading from the court from our producer inside that he to the judge, he called me a fraud before he knew nothing an it. he didn't know anything about me. referring to the judge. the fraud is on the court. not me. the tennis court is worth more than 18 million. the fraud is on the court. they say i didn't value my property correctly. he is a fraud. he is the one that didn't value the property correctly. according to the judge. how do you call him a fraud? the president did a great job. it's a terrible thing. a political hack over there. and that's unfortunate. this note from the producer, all caps. trump is going off no restraint. remember the gag order is for the judge's staff, not him. trump is taking full advantage and just looks forward with a sour face. that's a description. vaughn, this is the donald trump you've been covering for years. and this is one thing at a campaign rally or on truth social, but he is in a court of law. >> right. he has an issue with umpires, the ones calling balls and strikes on counting the ballot that is the american public voted on. and this situation, he is directly attacking the judge and sitting just mere feet away from him. i think it's important to underscore this. there's not a jury here he is trying to convince. it is that very judge he is sitting feet away from and attacking is not a fair arbiter. someone he is calling a fraud who is going to be the one determining whether the trump organization, the family empire that started nearly 100 years ago, whether it's going to exist in new york or not and whether it incurs a $250 million fine. his two sons, this is the business that will be left to him and he's attacking, to use the baseball metaphor, the home plate umpire. so for donald trump, this is very much just raising the stakes of the 2024 election and the promises that he has made to target those who he perceives as political enemies within the u.s. justice system. the judge is clearly somebody that is in his line of fire. and now the question is would that gag order potentially be expanded from the judge or only add to more tension here? because that gag order is limited right now to just the staff and the law clerk. to give you an idea inside the courtroom. donald trump is in the witness chair and on the other side of the judge is where the law clerk is sitting and donald trump has attacked the law clerk. has been fined twice for attack her. so for donald trump, what is, what we're watching unfold here inside of that courtroom is somebody who is intentionally unrestrained and for him, we will next see him on the campaign trail on saturday in new hampshire, but donald trump has already been found liable in the civil lawsuit for inflating the value of his properties and now it's, just the extent to which he is penalized financially and through his own business license here in the state of new york. so this is quite something to watch. it is 12:18 p.m. we've still got an afternoon ahead of us. >> and apparently, the prosecutor, the attorney general who's prosecuting this, questioning him, when he's done with his rant, says done, trump says done then turns to the judge, chuck, and he says if you look at this paragraph, your honor. so, he's alternating between being completely unhinged then restraining himself. how long can the judge let this kind of behavior go on? it's the judge who will assess the liability. since he's already found him guilty of fraud, the corporation, i should say. >> to andrew's point, different judges run their courtrooms in different ways. there are two possibilities here. one is that mr. trump is trying goad the judge into a mistake. to make a comment that would be helpful to the trump team on appeal. the judge is an experienced jurist. i don't think that's happened yet and i don't see that happening. the other and you and vaughn are both being very polite. i think vaughn kale called him unrestrained. it maybe that he's incoherent. his answers make no sense to anybody but him and he can't help himself so this is what you get. either way, whatever the motive, your quite right. it is the judge at the end of the day who's going to determine the damages, determine the fine, the penalty who's also assessed liability. so from a theatrical perspective, maybe this plays in some other venue. from a legal perspective, this does not play in court. >> joining us now is michael beschloss. he isn't the first former president to testify in court. roosevelt did it twice, but it's the first time former president is doing it where it is being not seen because it's not on camera but it's certainly being broadcast. the words are being transmitted in realtime. and the rants do work for him at rallies. and on truth social perhaps. just judging from the polling today which shows -- >> this morning, the judge saying to him to the lawyer of donald trump, can't you control your client. this is not a rally. that's something that we haven't seen before. >> michael, what is the precedent here? he's the first former president to have 91 indictments in a criminal case and the first formal president to be testifying this way and taking on the judge. really demeaning the prosecutor. it's not a jury trial. but he's really gone off in quote unusual directions, shall we say. >> having a little sound interruption but i think i can respond generally. >> here, we have just as you said, andrea, nixon and reagan gave depositions as ex presidents. nixon avoided being seen in open court because he knew that would be an image that might damage him. but here, we're in the age of donald trump where we're seeing an ex president not only testify and defend himself against charges of fraud in an open court, but also engaging the judge and taunting him in the way we've seen and the other thing, andrea, is that remember you know 2016 it seems like a century ago. his big argument was i have never been in political leadership but that's a plus and what i have been is a great business man. remember? he said i built one of the great global corporations, he said. you know, that is being taken apart before our eyes and is a it little bit too much on an exaggeration but not that much of one to say what if eisenhower in 1952, he was the leader who had been centrally responsible for d day helped us to a world war ii victory. what if it had been somehow proven that he was not a great general? so donald trump's central claim on being a great leader is being dismantled as we speak. >> and the political ramifications are still to be seen. it's a big week in politics. we'll get to all of that. we'll be right back with andrew, chuck, and vaughn and michael beschloss. stay with us. this is the civil trial of donald trump on msnbc. is the cf donald trump on msnbc. eye disease a long time ago. and year after year, you weathered the storm and just lived with the damage that was left behind. but even after all this time your thyroid eye disease could still change. restoration is still possible. learn how you could give your eyes a fresh start at tedhelp.com. a mystery! jessie loves playing detective. but the real mystery was her irritated skin. so, we switched to tide pods free & gentle. it cleans better, and doesn't leave behind irritating residues. and it's gentle on her skin. tide free & gentle is epa safer choice certified. it's got to be tide. why didn't we do this last year? 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( ♪♪ ) constant contact. helping the small stand tall. right now get a free footlong at subway. like the new deli heroes. buy one footlong in the app, get one free. it's a pretty big deal. kinda like me. order in the subway app today. looking for a bladder leak pad that keeps you dry? when i'm at work, i need to feel secured. what i'm looking for in a pad is, super thin, super absorbent. all of the things that you're looking for in a pad, that is always discreet. - this is thin. - my pad is thick. let's put it to the test. let's do it! look how it's absorbing! and locking it right on in! - look at that! - no liquid, no nothing. totally absorbed! - you feel no wetness. - oh my gosh! are you a believer now? i'm a believer! i got to get some always discreet! the white house just announced that president biden spoke with prime minister netanyahu this morning. still no humanitarian pause despite u.s. proposals, despite pleas from blinken in israel just two days ago and no word on the remaining hostages. but the rafah crossing out of southern gaza is now periodically for select foreigners and the severely wounded. they're intensifying its heavy bombardment claiming forces have fully encircled gaza city and reached the coastline, cutting it in two which makes it impossible to get to the rafah get. bill burns is there today. this as the pentagon says the u.s. is flying unarmed drones over gaza for the first time to help israel hunt for the hostages and the u.s. hopes better target air strikes as the u.s. has been pleading. the burns visit follows blinken's visit a couple of days ago. he was rebuffed on friday by prime minister netanyahu and his calls for those temporary pauses, undercutting blinken's subsequent meetings with arabs in jordan and palestinians in the west bank. in a trip to baghdad, blinken warned iranian backed militias on its attacks. those attacks have injured at least 45 u.s. service members in iraq and syria. joining us now is raf sanchez in tel aviv and ben rhodes. raf, you had rare access inside gaza while embedded with the israeli military. tell us how did that go. >> yeah, andrea, we spent several hours yesterday in the north of the gaza strip. we drove through the border fence. the same border fence that hamas terrorists burst through on october 7th on their way to the massacre. we were driving south towards gaza city. i've been to gaza many times, andrea, and it was stunning to see the level of destruction on the north of the strip. we could see the edge of gaza city. you can only imagine the scale of the direction inside of that major population center. now, we should be transparent with our viewers. as a condition of taking part on this inbed with the israeli military, we agreed to show israel's military sensors, the raw material we shot. we did not agree to show them any of our final stories and they don't have any control over our final editorial. they asked us to blur the faces of some junior israeli soldiers, which is something we agreed to. we followed a israeli combat engineer unit and they are tasked with finding and destroying hamas' tunnel network. they showed us several tunnels in a relatively small area in this you know, fairly empty stretch of northern gaza. the tunnels, 15 yards deep, interconnected, and they said that these were just a small part of what is a vast network that runs underneath the entire strip including gaza city where they say hamas' under ground command and control centers are. hamas fighters have been using these tunnels to pop out and ambush israeli forces. israel had taken control of this area several days before yet one day before we arrived, three hamas fighters burst out and ambushed israeli troops using grenades and machine guns which shows you from israel's perspective, no area can be considered clear of hamas until the tunnels are taken out. we watched as they blew up a tunnel with heavy explosives. that is just one and there are many, many more to go. >> thank you so much. and thanks for all the context there. it's so important. ben, prime minister netanyahu basically walked out of the blinken meeting on friday and refused to agree to a pause and said so publicly. he did not do that. and blinken then had to go on and meet with the arabs. so first, to the point that we know that the president was on the phone with netanyahu today. this cannot be a happy relationship right now. blinken was asking for a couple of things. better targeting. he said that publicly. not using those bunker buster bombs in the heavily populated gaza city area. including near hospitals and ambulances. and the u.s. wanting to send small munitions. where do we stand here? >> i mean, it's pretty clear, andrea, that prime minister netanyahu is going to do what he wants to do here. and look, this has been obviously the pattern with him with multiple u.s. presidents. you know, president clinton, president obama, when i was in office oftentimes prime minister netanyahu more than happy to ignore the advice or the recommendations of the u.s. i think what the biden administration has been banking on is that they gave a more full embrace of prime minister netanyahu in this very difficult time for the israeli people and very volatile time in the region, that that might allow them to have a bit more leverage. i think the message netanyahu is sending is no, i'm going to do what i want to do here. the challenge to the u.s. is, number one, i think the u.s. is trying to negotiate the release of some of these hostages using channels from qatar, egypt, and believing the negotiation may be the better way to try to secure the release of hostages some of whom may be in that tunnel network. so it's very difficult to rescue them through military operations. then i also think the u.s. is obviously concerned and i'm sure secretary blinken is getting an earful of concern from arab leaders about the risk of escalation on the west bank, the palestinian death toll in gaza, and the risks across the region. therefore, humanitarian pause could both allow for alleviation of suffering in gaza but also demonstrate a concerted effort to address the concerns people have in the region. thus far, it seems like the gap between u.s. and israel on this remains. >> and acknowledging fully the horror and savagery of the hamas attack that started this. what the u.s. is arguing is this is counterproductive and not the best way to get at the terrorists in the tunnels. >> yeah. there's no question obviously from the u.s. standpoint that hamas' horrific attack initiated this cycle of violence. the concern is about the loss of palestinian life in gaza which could escalate as the idf moves into the city. and i think what the u.s. is trying to do is indicate look, bill burns is there. we can share intelligence. we can try to identify where these hostages are. perhaps we could try to help you be more targeted in your pursuit of hamas and capability so it's not the kind of broad-based campaign we've seen. that's why i think there continues to be a difference with the israeli government. >> ben, thanks so much for that. and joining us now outside the courtroom is suzanne who's been inside the court. your notes were pretty telling. give us your description of what it was like when donald trump was really going off on the judge. >> sure. i'm going to start with how the day began then sort of get into what happened. it won't take long. donald trump took the stand right around 10:00 a.m. and he started off with an explanation. he went through his view of why banks don't rely on the financial statements. he said look, they look at the deal. they look at the location. and so the banks don't need these financial statements sort of at the heart of this case that he submitted to banks in order to obligation is to get better rates. so he started with that. then he said also that his properties are even though they don't rely on him, a lot of the statements undervalue things. mar-a-lago is worth 1.5 billion, which is multiple times what the market rate many would agree of it is. he kept saying how valuable his properties can. then started to go off the rail. the judge said look, you are being nonresponsive to the questions. instead of answering a yes, no question, he was going off with long speeches. the judge reminded him this is not a political rally. he called the trial crazy. he said the judge always rules against him. he said this is a very unfair trial and i hope the public is watching and this went on and on. the judge is just so fed up with him in the morning session and i just, i wrote down just some of the things he said. he said in addition to answering you know, he says you're not only are your questions or your answers nonresponsive, they're repetitive. that was a yes or no question when trump would go on and on. he says you can attack me. this is the judge saying that to trump when trump was on the defensive you can attack me, you can do what you want, but just answer the question. and his, he kept saying it was a political witch hunt. he took the attorney general at one point. just continued outburst after outburst. an idea to the audience that this is going to even at one point, trump said that he called his client the former and future president. they were very much this morning speaking, trump's team, speaking to a wider political audience. they feel they've lost this case and trump is playing a character we've known well. and that's the victim this morning. >> what about the evaluations? are the attorney general's people presenting the disparity in terms of the evidence in a way that is coherent or are these interruptions making it difficult to do that? >> the interruptions are making it tough but some is getting through and one thing that i found interesting and it's one of the properties we've heard a lot about is the valuation on trump tower and the triplex that trump has there. we've heard it's been estimated to be 30,000 square feet by trump and employees of trump in documents. it's closer to 10,000. trump was asked about that this morning on the stand. he said well, you know, the reason why, there are a few reasons. one of the reasons he gave is because things like elevator shafts were included that shouldn't have been. in short, i think he had an answer for everything this morning in terms of any questions about mistakes that may have been been made. his bottom line is look, this is an art, not a science and further more, most of the properties on here, 40 wall street, it's a office tower not far from here. doral, a golf course, mar-a-lago, all these assets are worth much more than was on the financial statements he submitted to banks and insurance companies. >> andrew, what does his performance on the stand today tell you about whether or not we'll ever see him on the stand in a criminal case where the rules are very different? i think andrew, you might, okay. >> i'm so sorry, andrea. i think the chances of his testifying in a criminal case are very, very remote. i worked on the mueller investigation where the former president who was then the president said that he would be more than happy to come in and talk with us and that never happened. i'm not faulting him for that. i think he would have had a very difficult time answering the questions. as we've talked about it, he doesn't make particularly good witness. obviously, the facts matter. there may be stronger and weaker cases but i can't imagine that we will see him on the stand in either, for instance, the january 6th case, or the mar-a-lago documents case where the proof, you know, at least is alleged by the government appears to be so overwhelming. it's hard to see anything that he would be able to help himself out if he were to testify. also, just to your point, to suzanne. it may be hard for the prosecutors here to get their whole story out today but this isn't their only time to do that. in other words, they can get certain pieces here but they have a whole trial in which to present that. but before the former president testified today and afterwards. >> and we've got ivanka trump testifying on wednesday. there are other opportunities. here comes donald trump so just hang on a moment. let's see if he says anything. no. just waving and walking off. you want to pick it up there? >> it will be interesting because the morning really was split into kind of two screens. you had started started out rig gate, as i described, very contentious. when we got back from a break, the judge was not interrupting as much. at one point he said to the attorney general's lawyer, do you want to point out -- he's rambling, the questions are non-responsive. the attorney general let trump go. there was a lot more speechifying in the later morning session, but it was not as contentious. there was one notable outburst. i will be curious to see if the lawyer tries to rein trump in a little bit. there was something that at one point trump wanted to read something he had in his pocket. the judge said know. it will be interesting to see how the attorney general answers the questioning this afternoon and whether he tries to tighten the reins on the speeches being given. >> susanne, thank you for rushing out. they're taking a lunch break. let's talk about the political fallout of all of this. joining us, msnbc's national political correspondent steve kornacki. as president trump is on the stand today, we also have new polling from "the new york times" and siena college. his polling has only gone up through out his legal difficulties this year with his various court appearances. now he's got leads in five of six battleground states that joe biden won which is causing a lot of alarm among democrats we've been talking to this weekend. >> yeah, andrea. this new poll from "the new york times" and siena has ever wurn talking. it takes a look at what we think will be the six most important swing states in the 2024 election. it asks voters, biden or trump, who are you going to be for? look at the sea of red. five of the six trump is leading in. only wisconsin, a state joe biden narrowly beat trump in in 2020, a state trump narrowly won in 2016. that's the only state in this polling that biden leads in. all five others have trump leading right now. notably, all of these states that you see right here voted for joe biden in 2020. also notably, "the new york times" and siena at about this same time, the fall of 2019, ahead of the 2020 election cycle polled these states, biden versus trump and biden was winning just about all of them. so it's also a change from how the race between the two of them was setting up at this time four years ago. now, what would something like this mean in terms of the electoral college? let's take a look here. we'll be spending a lot of time with this over the next year. but go back to 2020, this is how things landed in 2020. remember, there's been reapportionment, redistricting since then. some states gained electoral votes. some states lost electoral votes. michigan, for instance, lost an electoral vote. so actually the new count after reapportionment, if the same states went for biden, the same states went for trump under the new reapportionment numbers, that 2020 win would be 303-235 for biden over trump. looking at the new numbers, what "the new york times" is saying in this polling is trump made the biggest gains in the southern states here, states that are more diverse, younger voters. these are groups where trump is doing much better in the polling than he did in the past. if trump were to flip georgia, let's say. if trump were to flip arizona, these are states he's leading in this polling, his biggest lead in nevada, if he were to sweep those, he'd still be short. he'd be 268, biden would be 270. it would mean he'd still have to win one of these northern states, either michigan, wisconsin or pennsylvania. in the polling he's leading in both michigan, trump is, and in pennsylvania. he's actually trailing in ohio -- excuse me. in wisconsin. again, it's very notable. one of the findings in this polling is that trump actually has made bigger gains -- these are trump's strong states in 2016. he's made bigger gains in the sunbelt extended part of the country, the states that have older populations, wider populations, not as much progress for trump in the polling. the electoral college implications, yes, this has a lot of people talking, andrea. >> steve, thank you so much. back with us are chuck rosen back, andrew weissmann and michael beschloss. michael, pretty astounding to a lot of people, specifically the democrats, 77% of those polled thought joe biden was too old. only 39% thought in contrast that trump was too old. they're just three years apart. considering their various demean ors and the way they handle things, that disparity is enormous and it's a big number against joe biden. >> we're about to see joe biden, if he's the nominee, he can't hide either. he will be showing himself in public as he is today. i love the talk you had with our friends about his behavior in the courtroom today. that raises the question was he out of control or is this a legal strategy? if he's out of control, that's a big red flag because, as we can see in the current world crisis, presidents like franklin roos investment after pearl harbor or jfk at the time of the cuban missile crisis, let's watch our friends who are watching. would you feel comfortable with a president who is out of control at a time when our families, communities and friends have to be protected? we're going to see donald trump close up during the next 12 months if he's nominated. >> chuck rosenberg, let's talk about that. it's unclear, is this performance art? is this political or is this his temper? there's no way to really tell that. >> it could be a little bit of both. but either way, it's not helping him in court. and either way, it seems to be helping him outside of court. mr. trump is quite good at speaking to his base. almost regardless of who he attacks, as long as he's attacking somebody, they seem to rally around him. i don't know how long that trail is and whether it will end, but right now he's losing in court, but winning i think where he considers it to be the most important, the venue that he is going to be really contesting next. and that's for the presidency of the united states. >> andrew and chuck, this isn't your venue, but it's a big week in politics. we've got elections in new jersey and importantly in virginia tomorrow, and we've got the nbc debate wednesday night without donald trump. but he's going to be doing counterprogramming. andrew, a lot at stake, a lot on his mind. he's claiming he can't campaign because he's stuck on trial. >> well, let's just remember that's simply not the case. i'd like to point something out about the judges here who are trying to make sure that the rule of law applies to everyone including the former president. these cases are ones where either a grand jury has already found that there's probable cause for the charges, and that has happened repeatedly across the country. in the civil case they've had judges find already that these are not just allegations, but they've been proved. and the two gag orders are quite limited. there's nothing about them that restricts the former president from campaigning. and in the final analysis, the reason the former president is in this position is because of his actions. it's not because of prosecutors. it's not because of attorneys general. it's not because of grand juries and some sort of witch hunt. it's because of actions that were taken by the former president. so he has made this situation. and what we're seeing now is the tension between the rule of law and judges trying to uphold that and somebody, as vaughn said, who does not do very well with umpires. >> let me give michael beschloss the last word with less than a minute to go, michael. you wrote a book about presidents of war. here you've got joe biden as a president with two wars going on and donald trump saying he could solve ukraine in 24 hours, but that was rejected by zelenskyy affirmatively with kristen welker on "meet the press" yesterday. >> yeah. for most of american history, if americans have doubts about a candidate for president's temperament, that person doesn't get elected. we're now in a new world where huge numbers of americans are willing to suspend disbelief, even if they're presented with, let's say, a president, an ex-president who is convicted of the felony. some of the numbers suggest that they will not care. this is important. will we have a rule of law if drum is re-elected? that question is very much open today. that does it for this edition of "andrea mitchell reports." remember, follow the show on social media, @mitchellreports. "chris jansing reports" starts right now. good day. i'm chris jansing live at msnbc headquarters in new york city. former president donald trump fighting his way through contentious testimony today sparring with the judge, calling his civil fraud trial unfair and accusing the

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